Hurricane Earl Nears Coast; Evacuations Expand

(CBS/AP)  Updated 1:10 a.m. ET

Hurricane Earl steamed toward the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday as communities from North Carolina to New England kept a close eye on the forecast, worried that even a slight shift in the storm's predicted offshore track could put millions of people in the most densely populated part of the country in harm's way.

Vacationers along North Carolina's dangerously exposed Outer Banks took advantage of the typical picture-perfect day just before a hurricane arrives to pack their cars and flee inland, cutting short their summer just before Labor Day weekend.

The governors of North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland declared states of emergency, sea turtle nests on one beach were scooped up and moved to safety, and the crew of the Navy's USS Cole rushed to get home to Norfolk, Va., on Wednesday ahead of the bad weather. The destroyer was supposed to return later this week from a seven-month assignment fighting piracy off Somalia.

Earl Intensifies
CBS News 2010 Storm Tracker

Farther up the East Coast, emergency officials urged people to have disaster plans and supplies ready and weighed whether to order evacuations as they watched the latest maps from the National Hurricane Center — namely, the "cone of uncertainty" showing the broad path the storm could take.

(Scroll down to watch YouTube videos of Earl in the Caribbean)

Earl was expected to reach the North Carolina coast late Thursday and wheel to the northeast, staying offshore while making its way up the Eastern Seaboard. But forecasters said it could move in closer, perhaps coming ashore in North Carolina, crossing New York's Long Island and passing over the Boston metropolitan area and Cape Cod.

That could make the difference between modestly wet and blustery weather on the one hand, and dangerous storm surge, heavy rain and hurricane-force winds on the other.

"Everyone is poised and ready to pull the trigger if Earl turns west, but our hope is that this thing goes out to sea and we're all golfing this weekend," said Peter Judge, a spokesman for the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency.

The storm has already caused at least $150 million in damage from the Virgin Islands to Puerto Rico, cut power to almost 200,000 homes and left 60,000 without clean water, reports CBS News correspondent Kelly Cobiella.

As of Wednesday night, Earl was a powerful Category 4 hurricane centered more than 520 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C., with winds of 140 mph. The most powerful category is 5 with winds 155 mph and higher.

The only mandatory evacuations were for 30,000 residents and visitors ordered to leave Hatteras Island on the Outer Banks. Dare County spokeswoman Dorothy Toolan said there was no official notification of the evacuation order, and many residents didn't appear worried.

Nancy Scarborough, who manages the Hatteras Cabanas, said locals are ready to help each other and ride out a hurricane, even if they are cut off from the mainland for days.

"I worry about not being able to get back here"' she said. "I'd rather be stuck on this side than that side."

About 5,000 tourists were ordered to leave Ocracoke Island to the south, and officials in Carteret County were evacuating low-lying areas, but didn't know how many people would be affected.

The North Carolina National Guard also is deploying 80 troops to help and President Barack Obama declared an emergency in the state. The declaration authorizes the Department of Homeland Security and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to coordinate all disaster relief efforts.

Just a light breeze was stirring and there wasn't a cloud in the sky along the Outer Banks — a ribbon of barrier islands a dozen miles or more off the mainland, connected to the rest of the world by a couple of bridges and a ferry. Along the lone highway, hundreds of cars backed up at one of the bridges.

Brittany Grippaldi and her family took advantage of the good weather to pack up their Ford Explorer in Hatteras and head home to New Jersey.

"It's sad because reality hasn't really set in because it is so beautiful out. It's like, `Oh, I don't want to leave this,' but it's like the calm before the storm," said Grippaldi, who hoped to beat the traffic.

Chuck Costas also wasn't taking any chances, interrupting his two-week vacation to move inland from the cottage he rented on Nags Head on the Outer Banks. Large waves already crashing ashore uncomfortably close to the home.

"It is what it is," he said. "We have no control over it. If we lose a couple days, it's not a huge loss."

Hurricane warnings were posted for most of the North Carolina coast, with a hurricane watch extending to Delaware and part of Massachusetts.

In Virginia, Gov. Bob McDonnell activated the National Guard and sent 200 troops to the Hampton Roads area on Chesapeake Bay. The area was not expected to get the brunt of Earl, but many remember the surprise fury of Hurricane Isabel, which killed 33 people and caused $1.6 billion in damage in September 2003.

"I'd rather be safe and get our troops and state police in place by Thursday night," the governor said.

Red Cross officials in New York prepared to open as many as 50 shelters on Long Island that could house up to 60,000 people in an emergency. No evacuations were issued, but officials were going to re-examine the situation Thursday morning.

Emergency officials on Cape Cod braced for their first major storm since Hurricane Bob brought winds of up to 100 mph to coastal New England in August 1991. Marinas encouraged people to take their boats out of the water now instead of waiting for Labor Day.

Also on Wednesday, the seventh tropical storm of the season formed far out in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Gaston had sustained winds of 40 mph and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane this weekend as it moves toward the Leeward Islands.

Tropical Storm Fiona remained north of the Caribbean with winds of 60 mph and is expected to move toward Bermuda over the next several days. And Tropical Storm Gaston on their heels is beginning to slow down over the open Atlantic, making it the fourth named storm in 11 days.

[noloyalisti]

Now that we have Dems in charge, we might have some chance of a decent disaster response.

The completely unqualified Bushoccio, an anti-government government employee a la Ronald Reagan, put his equally unqualified crony buddies in government oversight roles. He cut the budget for FEMA as well of course as any agency that might interfere with his corporate masters profits.

He was a corporate socialist through and through just like the rest of the GOP.

[Myopinion046]

It's good to see that the evacuations have been expanded and that all appropriate precautions have been taken.

[watchdogtexas]

democracy5, what does Christianity have to do with opinion. Many people died during Katrina not because of the federal government. Before the hurricane hit did the state order a mandatory evacuation of New Orleans? Did the state activate the guard and all city and state workers to help evacuate people in the lowest parts of New Orleans? The politicians in the city and state took a chance and bet the lives of its citizens. When a large storm hits anywhere, if man thinks he can predict what will happen, he is an idiot.
If this storm comes ashore as a cat 4 or 5 we have no idea what will happen.

[lloydbest1]

Here's the latest from the National Weather Service:

11:00 PM EDT
LOCATION...27.8N 73.8W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES

One thing we should note is the central pressure. Since the previous update at 8 EDT the pressure dropped over a quarter of an inch (.27 inches) and winds have picked up to 140 MPH. These are sustained winds and given it is nearly the middle of the night where Earl lurks this is not a good sign.

IR imagery shows a well developed system with great outflow on all four quadrants and little, if any, wind shear. Earl's not going to weaken much over the next 24 hours but I'd also be surprised if he gains Cat 5 strength. If he does, it won't be for very long and the closer he gets to land the less that likelihood becomes.
But a Cat 4 is still one with considerable cojones and you won't won't enjoy being out in all that. Earl will come very close to the Outer Banks and the NWS is hinting that his eye may actually pass over the extreme eastern end of them. That jog I hinted at in my earlier post is now a definite reality. Earl is heading on a 330 degree bearing but still has a westerly component in his movement. It's becoming evident that he'll miss South Carolina but even there residents can expect a good bit of rain and a nasty surf.
North Carolina will take a more thorough beating. Hurricane force winds now extend about 120 to 140 miles from the eye and tropical force winds out to nearly 275. Even if Earl doesn't make landfall and just brushes the outer banks, 100+ wind speeds are possible at Hatteras, Nags Head and Kill Devil Hill. Depending on his track we could see hurricane force winds as far inland as New Bern, Edenton and Elizabeth City.

Further up the coast we're looking at a romp over Cape Cod if Earl moves according to the latest projections. Earlier this week they had him almost 100 miles eastward so this westward drift in his expected path is unnerving. He should arrive at the cape around 11:00 PM on Friday (9/6). By then winds should be down into the high 80's or low 90's but that can still damage well constructed homes. What's even more alarming is we're two days away from a new moon and the timing is during a high tide. This could impact many low lying areas which would not necessarily be affected by high winds.

After Earl is done with Cape Cod, He'll race toward Nova Scotia. His westward deviance from projected tracks now has him tearing toward the Bay of Fundy. There's no timeline issued by the weather bureau but my guess is he'll hit the mouth by late morning or early afternoon on Saturday the 7th. Some of you may know that the Bay of Fundy generates some of the highest tidal ranges on earth. A storm surge on top of a new-moon high tide in a place like Fundy is the stuff of nightmares and folks living there who already know a thing or two about high tides can expect further education on what a reeealy high tide can do.

[lloydbest1]

One of the disturbing things I've noticed as I started paying attention to this storm a few day ago is the tendency on Earl's part to track a little bit westward with each update.

Granted these are projections of what Earl will do rather than what he has already done, but his pass by the middle Atlantic gets him closer to land every time we have a storm track prediction update.

That would make me very uncomfortable were I living in eastern North Carolina. Earl's central pressure has dropped about .06 inches since 11:00 AM EDT and while .06 isn't so grand a pressure drop it IS indicative of a trend. Top sustained winds are still hanging in at 125 or high Cat 3 strength but we could still see Earl creep back into low end Cat 4 before nightfall.

Western Atlantic water temperatures are still higher than average by a few degrees and aren't expected to cool off much through out Earl's projected path until he hits about the 38th parallel. And even there, the cooler water isn't cooler by much and won't do a lot to take the wind out of his sails. He's astute enough to follow the Gulf Stream and will use every opportunity to suck as much heat out of it as he can....

There are indications Earl is starting his much anticipated turn to the north. The 8:00 AM update pegged him heading at 310 degrees, almost exactly NW. Six hours later he's showing a 320 degree trajectory. Not much of a turn, but at least we have a reasonable likelihood he won't crawl ashore right next to Charleston, SC as he would have with out the turn.

Where next? Consensus has him still twisting to the north and then northeast but he will pass a little closer to land than once thought a few days ago. He's a biggie. Not as large as Floyd, perhaps and certainly not as large as was Ike, but even if his closest approach to land is as far out as 100 miles, hurricane force winds are still a strong likelihood on the Outer Banks. Storm surge and rip currents will also discourage any recreational pursuits along the beaches (at least I HOPE they would).

Any out door activities along the Jersey Shore, Long Island and Cape Cod during the early part of the weekend are likely to be a big "no bueno". Rain, wind and rip currents will rule the day. Farther out, the projections aren't as certain but residents of Nova Scotia are still in Earl's gunsight and would be well advised to start preparations as soon as possible.

[scoutsout80]

This is clearly Bush's fault.

[GunsInTheSky]

Lets all take note that everyone had ample time and warning to LEAVE.

If luck is on our side, this won't be another Katrina. But if it is lets not like it is a national disgrace when the people that opted to stay behind on their own free get injured/killed and it takes a day or two to bring help to these idiots.

[Lifeson2112]

The difference here is that these people would actually try to take care of themselves.

[democracy5]

Lifeson2112: Many of those who died during Katrina were poor and elderly. Many of them did not have family nearby who would have been able to assist them. People DIED and all you can do is MOCK them. That's pathetic!

Why are people like you so hateful to their fellow Americans (people who haven't done anything against you)? You don't impress me. Your self-righteous, hateful attitude makes you come across as pitiful. I certainly hope that you don't claim to be a Christian.