Homebuilders Less Confident in Economic Recovery

(AP)  Homebuilders are feeling less confident in the recovery now that government incentives for buyers have expired.

Their pessimism could drag on the economy, which may not benefit so much from the job creation that construction typically generates throughout various sectors.

The National Association of Home Builders said Tuesday its housing market index fell to 17 in June, sinking five points after two straight months of increases. It was the lowest level since March.

Builders had been more optimistic earlier in the year when buyers could take advantage of tax credits of up to $8,000. Those incentives expired on April 30, although buyers with signed contracts have until June 30 to complete their purchases.

Experts anticipate home sales will slow in the second half of this year. In addition, high unemployment and tight mortgage lending continue to keep many buyers on the sidelines.

The drop in activity is "a wake-up call to the fact that the market will struggle to stand on its own two feet without the tax credit," wrote Paul Dales, an economist with Capital Economics. "The double-dip in both activity and prices that we have been expecting for some time appears to have begun."

New homes sales made up about 7 percent of the housing market last year. That's down from about 15 percent before the bust.

It's also bad news for the economy. Each new home built creates the equivalent of three jobs for a year and generates about $90,000 in taxes paid to local and federal authorities, according to the National Association of Home Builders. The impact is felt across multiple industries, from makers of faucets and dishwasher to lumber yards.

Thanks to the tax credits, sales of new homes rose nearly 15 percent in April. That followed a nearly 30 percent surge in March, the biggest monthly increase in 47 years.

But now that they are gone, "the reduction in consumer activity may have been more dramatic than some builders had anticipated," said Bob Jones, a builder from Bloomfield Hills, Mich. and the Washington-based trade group's chairman.

In a typical economic recovery, the construction sector provides much of the fuel. But developers are trying to sell a tremendous glut of homes built during the boom years and they are competing against foreclosed homes selling at deep discounts.

While home sales are not likely to return to the depressed levels of the housing bust, they are unlikely to return soon to those levels aided by the tax credit program, wrote Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc., an economic consulting firm in New York.

Another problem for the building industry is that lenders are reluctant to make construction loans to developers. The builders group is pressing for legislation that would require the Treasury Department to guarantee loans made to developers.

"We're encouraging banks to make prudent loans to projects that pencil out and are in markets that are ripe for recovery," Jerry Howard, the trade group's president, said in an interview.

The builders' trade group's index is made up of three components. The reading for current sales conditions fell one point to 16, while the index measuring expectations for the next six months fell two points to 26. The index measuring foot traffic from prospective buyers held steady at 13.

The report reflects a survey of 344 residential builders nationwide.

[payasyougo]

"Homebuilders Less Confident in Economic Recovery"
----

There is no "recovery" in real estate until the volume of forclosures and unsold homes drop to a competitive level. And that won't occur until the fed removes the stimulus.

The only thing the 8k housing credit did was provide bailout funding to realtors and homebuilders, both of which promoted and profited heavily from the real estate bubbles in four states.

Banks are reporting record profits because they are borrowing at 0% and buying treasuries around 2-3%.

Your children will be stuck with this bill.

[KeithDrippingSprings]

What recovery? We have just begun the Depression; the last one lasted 13 years. The 3rd, 4th, and 5th years were the worst years of the depression; we are just in year two. The unemployment rate rose to 27 percent. The government started feeding people to stop the growing revolutionary rhetoric.

By the tenth year unemployment had fallen to 19 percent. The rest of the world is at war or preparing for war so America starts to climb out of the Depression. By 1941 we finally had jobs for many of our people and unemployment stands at only 17 percent. The Japanese attacks Pearl Harbor, three months later America is at full employment.

The largest tragedy in Human History finally pulls us out of the Depression. Are we headed in the same direction?

[Nick_Zoubek]

Why do we need to continue to build new homes? Why not mantain the existing homes? How many more Walmart's do we need to be built? How many more subdivision need to be built, farm land torn apart, and then majority of those homes sit empty? I understand the economic impact this industry has on the country (my father has been out of work for almost 3 years now, I get it), but seriously, there are so many empty buildings and homes out there. Why don't we concentrate on getting those filled up and peopke moved in before we build another endless glut of faceless cookie cutter housing projects?

Ditto on the previous two posters comments too.

~ Nick Zoubek

[jgg000101]

when is somebody going to admit that the stimulus plan was a total failure? And when is the media going to report that there is another stimulus in the wings?

[tsigili]

One thing I am fed up with, regarding home builders, is their tendency to set up Gestapo-like HOA's for every single development. This is going to eventually destroy people's ability to buy a home, due to the increased cost of ownership, and restrictive nature of ownership, as well as "albatross" extra cost items, like maintaining swimming pools......which deteriorate, no matter what, over time, and can entail very expensive special assessments.

If home owners want an HOA, let them form the association. That should NOT be the builder.