How Much Oil is Really Gushing Into Gulf?

From day one of this crisis, the question no one's been able to answer for sure is how much oil is gushing into the Gulf?

As for how many thousands of gallons have been pouring out, there are all kinds of estimates and, as CBS News investigative correspondent Sharyl Attkisson reports, plenty of reasons to doubt them.

(Scroll down to watch video of this report)

CBS News has learned the government's estimate of how much oil is gushing from the well could get much worse.

Last week, the Interior Department announced the range was 12,000 to 19,000 barrels -- or up to 798,000 gallons per day.

Special Section: Disaster in the Gulf

But that is not exactly what some scientists who worked on the estimate found. Sources tell CBS News that the 12,000 to 19,000 barrels is actually the minimum leaking from the well based on the most conservative assumptions. The maximum upper range hasn't been released yet.

But those details were left off the official government press release, making it seem like 19,000 barrels a day was the most - not the least, that could be gushing out.

CBS News Investigates blog:
How The Oil Leak Estimates Got Low-Balled


The range matters because BP is subject to fines of up to $4,300 for each 42 gallon barrel. It could mean a difference of millions of gallons, and billions of dollars.

Under the government's low estimate (12,000 barrels a day), BP's fine could be $2 billion dollars for just the first 40 days.

If the spill is significantly larger, as sources suggest the fine could shoot upwards of $4 billion so far.

Today, facing the criticism that it was "spinning" the numbers, the Interior Department revised its Web site to acknowledge that scientists are working on it -- but have not yet released the "high end" of just how big the leak could be.


Watch CBS News Videos Online

[Rogerk57]

On the news yesterday there was a picture of the broken pipe bolted onto the wello casing. Why can't they unbolt the pipe from the casing and bolt on a new shut off valve and close off the oil flow? The robots should be able to do it if functional for underwater repair and that seems like a pretty common sense repair. You don't have to be an engineer to see that. Respectfully Roger

[MIO42]

Just how big the leak could be?

The REal damage is not the visible damage!

The real damage (and this is HUGE)is to the microbial and unseen world which will be scarred for tens of thousands of years. Damage to micro systems which nourish clean and evolve to balance nature in ways we hardly understand. on behalf of unborn generations Thanks BP and corporate greed!

[MIO42]

Right On Brother !

[RichardPaulDembinsky]

Answer who cares how much one barrel is a violation; is it true the oil is owned by the finder? those the USA have a national oil reserve? In LA? Drain it now we no longer need the reserve we have a reserve on our Florida beaches....simply drain the national oil reserve in LA put ALL the money earnd (170,000,000 barrels at 70.00 $) in the USA treasury, then order the British to pay to fill the national reserve with recovered oil off the Gulf within 30 days if they fail to fill the national oil reserve within 50 days of the USA selling the oil just aging in LA, lowering the prices of gasoline permanently to $1.00 per gallon with the $1.50 Tax to clean up the Gulf...BP keeps the National Reserve full with water and oil...if the water cannot be quickly removed before placing in the national oil reserve tank....we no longer need a national oil reserve tank. Republican who are not in the oil business will love Obama paying down the national Debt by draining the national oil reserve tank within 30 days...the Democrats will finally see real price controls with Gasoline not allowed to sell above $2.50 of which $1.50 goes to LA Miss Florida to clean up the beaches and properly dispose of the waste oil ...more energy is need now by Obama (I now refuse to call him President) because he has not performed...those people around the Gulf he sent need to retire or be born again environmentalist.
Please talk about solutions you are all just blaming Obama or those hard working Republican oil men. We need a leader and we need the Republican oil men...lets use this negative to formulate a return to the national worth of 3 Trillion added during the Obama (a little under Bush) back to our national worth...the force sale of all British Petroleum oils from the Gulf to pay down the debt will save Republicans, Democrats and more importantly American families. Now President Obama do something take off you Sunday shirt and have you and your complete staff go to LA and save those birds in the BP oil.
Mr. President (Honorable President Obama) you are totally in effective and should give the Gulf oil problem to Honorable Saran Palin and get her drilling 24/7. but the oil goes to the national oil reserve not to the profits of the BP...this is to insure direct payment without delay for all the damages...take over the nation's oil reserve in the waters of the Gulf....NOW!! Charlie Crist make your vote in the Senate result in the immediate draining of the national reserve. ...pay off the National Debt...at least 3 Trillion drain the oil from the Gulf on the surface and below it is America's oil time for real Leaders. 386 235 0380 onballot.com

[wdh3007]

Foreign oil has finally caused destruction of our waters and wildlife end all foreign oil imports and drill our own domestic oil on land.

[thesevenveils]

Oil companies have oil leases on land that combined is larger than the state of New Jersey. These leased oil plots all have known oil and NONE of them have been put in production. Some of these leases are more than 20 years old.

[spaceatoms]

Its a somewhat simple math problem,
2*pie(not McDonalds for a dollar)*19 inches..thinking..that's about 3 meters but for a quick approximation, you could assume the pipe to be 24 inches exactly the diameter of a modern barrel and scale the end result by .8, pretty simple.
So, with the height of a 55 or 42 gallon drum being eh....3 feet, one just has to know the flow and its pretty fast from the videos. I'll give it a starting estimate of one barrel a minute as a warm up, its clear that the force is making a particle of oil move faster than 3 feet in one minute, but at 1440 minutes in a day, one calculates the BP rate of about 1000 barrels a day. There are 86,400 seconds in a day, so its easy to see why the estimates are around 10,000 to 20,000 per day are still somewhat conservative because its obvious that its coming out at a pretty quick pace, but the overall record for a Gulf well is around 40,000 barrels per day, but it would be somewhat under control and impeded along the way, so some experts have up to 100,000 or a conservative 70,000 like the Purdue professor using proven flow calculations.

[oldsoftee]

Wouldn't the pressure @ 5,000' impede the flow rate and actually increase the amount of oil release per unit of time?

[edixope4842]

Maybe one of the government "team players"(wink, wink, smile,smile)good ol' boys is getting his pockets lined at John Q's expense?

Don't ya just love plausible deniability?

[viola809]

I,too, have a question, Katie. I realize this is a major disaster, but in comparison with what is being spilled into the ocean and how much we, as Americans, consume in oil per day,what is the ratio? Also, when did oil drilling in the ocean get it's beginning,who gave the initial authorization for oil drilling in the Gulf and when?

[ejavam07]

I wonder if energy generation would be any cleaner if each of us were required to generate all of our own energy requirements ourselves, upwind / upstream of our own dwellings? Is the BP-think of today's major energy corps just a product of nimby?

[brucegiddens]

Katie--
You said we could ask questions via email--but how do we do that?

My question is this: Where did you get that giant 19-inch pipe section?

That is certainly not the kind of pipe that has burst and is spewing oil.

Judging from the BP videos, and the number of bolts on the flanges, that is more like an 8-inch XX pipe with 1500 lb flanges.

Whoever told you that is a representative section of underwater oil well casing is mis-leading you.

Why would they do that?

[marcod72]

This is BEYOND HEART WRENCHING AND DEPRESSING!! It is ABSOLUTELY HORRIFIC what BP has done to these helpless creatures and to the Gulf region. Every time I see these images I get choked up and my eyes water. There are other occasions when I weep profusely. My tears are always followed by absolute unmitigated RAGE towards the CRIMINALS (BP) responsible for this HORROR and REPUBLICAN PARTY RODENTS who have been in bed with "Big Oil Cartels" for decades. These opportunistic parasites have enabled these Oil Rackets to circumvent NECESSARY and LIFESAVING safety standards by turning the blind eye of DEREGULATION with the sole objective being to protect their INVESTMENT INTERESTS and FATTEN THIER BANK ACCOUNTS regardless of the devastating repercussions. This perpetual cycle of INHUMANITY and INDIFFERENCE all for personal financial gain is KILLING OUR PLANET!!!Look at these helpless living, breathing creatures who have no say so in the matter.....LOOK AT THEM!!! I am convinced that at the rate things are going, the Earth will be practically UNINHABITABLE by 2050 or sooner. It is indescribably disillusioning, discouraging, and flat out depressing to now be more than painfully aware of the fact the world as we now know it, is a world infested with DEVASTATION, DESTRUCTION, GREED, AND INDIFFERENCE.