Economists Upbeat about U.S. Growth, Job Market
Economists forecast the pace of U.S. growth to pick up in the year ahead as consumers and businesses alike accelerate spending, according to a new survey.
The assessment by leading forecasters is set to be released Monday by The National Association for Business Economics. It finds them more bullish than when the survey was last surveyed in February, with a majority expecting the economy's performance to exceed the long-term norm in 2010 and 2011.
The outlook amounts to an encouraging report card on the economy at nearly the one-year mark of the recovery, which the experts date to June 2009 when the recession hit bottom.
"Although risks involving Europe have recently escalated, the outlook in this country has improved in most respects," said Lynn Reaser, the group's president and chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University. "Growth prospects are stronger, unemployment and inflation are lower, and worries relating to consumer retrenchment and domestic financial headwinds have diminished."
While the economy is in "reasonably good shape," she said, forecasters are extremely concerned about the impact of large federal deficits in the future.
The panel of forecasters boosted its expectations for growth in 2010 to 3.2 percent real gross domestic product, up from 3.1 percent in its February outlook. It also pegged the 2011 growth rate at 3.2 percent.
Household spending, while still lagging the overall economy, is still expected to grow significantly this year. The forecasters attribute part of that to consumers being less thrifty, with the saving rate for 2010 seen dropping to 3.4 percent from the 4.6 percent they predicted just three months ago.
Business investment also is expected to fuel the recovery. The economists expect higher operating rates and rising corporate profits boosting companies' spending on equipment and software, while retailers restock inventory.
Unemployment is forecast to decline to 9.4 percent by year's end and 8.5 percent by the end of 2011.
Forecasters have scaled back their expectations for the housing growth after setbacks to the setback earlier this year. But 65 percent of survey respondents said last year's lows in home sales and home prices will not be retested.
Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in line with the outlook from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues. But panelists showed increasing concern about higher inflation over the next five years.
The NABE survey of 46 professional forecasters was taken April 27 to May 7.
© 2010 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The assessment by leading forecasters is set to be released Monday by The National Association for Business Economics. It finds them more bullish than when the survey was last surveyed in February, with a majority expecting the economy's performance to exceed the long-term norm in 2010 and 2011.
The outlook amounts to an encouraging report card on the economy at nearly the one-year mark of the recovery, which the experts date to June 2009 when the recession hit bottom.
"Although risks involving Europe have recently escalated, the outlook in this country has improved in most respects," said Lynn Reaser, the group's president and chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University. "Growth prospects are stronger, unemployment and inflation are lower, and worries relating to consumer retrenchment and domestic financial headwinds have diminished."
While the economy is in "reasonably good shape," she said, forecasters are extremely concerned about the impact of large federal deficits in the future.
The panel of forecasters boosted its expectations for growth in 2010 to 3.2 percent real gross domestic product, up from 3.1 percent in its February outlook. It also pegged the 2011 growth rate at 3.2 percent.
Household spending, while still lagging the overall economy, is still expected to grow significantly this year. The forecasters attribute part of that to consumers being less thrifty, with the saving rate for 2010 seen dropping to 3.4 percent from the 4.6 percent they predicted just three months ago.
Business investment also is expected to fuel the recovery. The economists expect higher operating rates and rising corporate profits boosting companies' spending on equipment and software, while retailers restock inventory.
Unemployment is forecast to decline to 9.4 percent by year's end and 8.5 percent by the end of 2011.
Forecasters have scaled back their expectations for the housing growth after setbacks to the setback earlier this year. But 65 percent of survey respondents said last year's lows in home sales and home prices will not be retested.
Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in line with the outlook from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues. But panelists showed increasing concern about higher inflation over the next five years.
The NABE survey of 46 professional forecasters was taken April 27 to May 7.
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What the "economists" are not looking at is the future date alterations in trend: like 1,200,000 jobs that will be lost at the end of this fiscal year - meaning that over June and July 1,200,000 new folks will be filing for unemployment: school employees, utility employees, city and county employees, etc. In my small community of 130,000 - over 600 people are being layed off in June. And NO one wants to talk about it - it's not even mentioned in the local GOP rag sheet, just little tiny articles that mention one industry one week, and another the next. No "economist" is putting the dots together. These "economists" aren't even looking at the unemployed High School and College Seniors who can't find jobs (to the tune of 10,000,000 new unemployed that will be hitting the job lines in June once finals are over - but they can't file for unemployment because they were in school, and their student loans will be due). So the default rates on student loans will now soar, the loss of income from the famileies of the 1.2 mill layed off will soar leading to more foreclosures, and the overall result will be a more depressed job market and revenue/tax base for the U.S. Then there are the outlays for retirement (that have already maxed the system) as well as the unemployment benefits that are both in the red. Neither the "economists", the media writers, nor the "admin" are facing the truth - and that ain't good!
Why do you continue to spit out halftruth information. The IT Boom was the source of Clinton's low unemployment. Please provide a link to his polcies that shows how he impacted and when they where implemented.
You can not cause he inherited a Consumer Driven Gold mine.