Oil Flow Rate Questioned as BP Tries 2nd Fix

(CBS/AP)  As British Petroleum officials prepare their latest attempt to manage the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, some scientists are suggesting the size and scope of the spill may be vastly underestimated.

For much of the time since an April 20 explosion aboard the Deepwater Horizon sank the oil rig, the government has estimated that 5,000 barrels of oil are leaking from an underwater well into the Gulf each day. However, according to a New York Times report, the calculations used to come up with that estimate are not recommended for oil spills that large.

Complete Coverage: Disaster in the Gulf

Instead, Ian R. MacDonald, an oceanographer at Florida State University and an expert on oil slick analysis, has used satellite images of the slick to produce an estimate that could "easily be four or five times" worse than assumed, according to the report.

BP's release of an underwater video of the leak, showing a plume of oil and gas spewing into the sea at a high rate, has added fodder for those who think the oil company and government are underreporting the vastness of the problem.

The government's estimate would put the flow rate at about 146 gallons a minute, Alun Lewis, a British oil-spill consultant told the Times. By comparison, a garden hose's flow rate is about 10 gallons a minute, the report notes.

"Just anybody looking at that video would probably come to the conclusion that there's more," Mr. Lewis said.

Meanwhile, BP is in the midst of another bid to reduce the leak Friday, this time using undersea robots to thread a small tube into a jagged pipe on the seafloor to suck oil to the surface before it can spew into the water.

Company engineers were trying to move the 6-inch tube into the leaking 21-inch pipe, known as the riser. The smaller tube will be surrounded by a stopper to keep oil from leaking into the sea. BP said it hopes to know by Friday evening if the tube succeeds in siphoning the oil to a tanker at the surface.

The smaller tube will be surrounded by a stopper to keep oil from leaking into the sea. The tube will then siphon the crude to a tanker at the surface, though BP declined to estimate how much oil the tube will be able to collect.

According to the Times report, BP officials have turned down offers from scientists to work on getting a more accurate measure of the leak, saying new estimates wouldn't affect their top priority, reducing the flow of oil into the Gulf.

"We're putting every effort into this. It's really not tied to the rate," Doug Suttles, BP's Chief Operating Officer, said on CBS' "The Early Show."

Dr. Jane Lubchenco, an administrator at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, offered a similar analysis.

"I think the estimate at the time was, and remains, a reasonable estimate," she told the Times. "Having greater precision about the flow rate would not really help in any way. We would be doing the same things."

But members of the scientific community think the company and government response will be incomplete without a better sense of the problem's scope.

"If we are systematically underestimating the rate that's being spilled, and we design a response capability based on that underestimate, then the next time we have an event of this magnitude, we are doomed to fail again," said John Amos, the president of environmental group SkyTruth, told the Times. "So it's really important to get this number right."

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Meanwhile, 5,000 feet under the sea, if the tube being inserted doesn't work, BP could try a second containment box, which would be placed over the well and also would siphon the oil to the surface.

In another interesting experiment, BP might wind up shooting junk of all shapes and sizes to plug the nooks and crannies into the blowout preventer - a giant piece of machinery that's allowing some of the oil to escape. In the aptly named "junk shot," engineers would shoot pieces of tires, golf balls, knotted rope and other items into it in hopes the right size stuff makes its way to the appropriate holes. Once the leak is clogged, heavy mud will be poured in. It would then be sealed off with cement.

BP also has sprayed chemicals on the oil to break it up into smaller droplets, with about 4 million gallons of oil-contaminated water recovered.

The size of the spill, as measured from satellites, seems to have grown about 50 percent from May 10 to late Thursday, said Hans Graber, director of the University of Miami's Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing. It's now measured at around 3,650 square miles.

"There's a hell of a lot coming out," Graber said of the oil.

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[Budmocha]

The problem is BP was allowed to try to save the well head at the expense of the ecosystem. There is a very simple way to stop the well head flow see my video on youtube "Fix the gulf oil flow #2". It should be a back up plan from now on. First thing must be to stop the flow of oil NOW! It's very simple, natural, and will work. BP was trying to cover and recover. First plan should be "Cover and smother".

[1windcatcher]

As American citizen victims, we demand to see ALL the video of the leaking blow-out preventer, leaking wellhead and the string of blown-out pipe with its numerous leaks. The only video BP released last week is of one leak at the end of the pipe far from the leaking wellhead and leaking preventer which is under much more pressure and leaking profusely. If the wellhead and preventer were not leaking, BP would have released video of them. BP?s oil salvage activity at the end of the pipe has been a total science fiasco and is a diversion of attention from the main leaks at the preventer and wellhead.
Secretive, arrogant and powerful BP refuses to release the videos of the total wellhead damage and President Obama is complicit in the cover-up.
We have the right to see the total damage and leakage so scientist and engineers can truly evaluate the situation.
President Obama you have not taken control of the spill, you have allowed secret BP to call the shoots from the beginning to the present. The ?best scientific minds in the world? came up with one good Idea to stop the flow according to Mr. Hayward but he will not tell the public what the idea is and is continuing on BP?s present course of failure. BP has their secret program and has not taken positive action with known Marine Pile Driving Technology to stop the oil flow permanently. Furthermore, you have failed to take charge by not stepping in to control BP?s operations with a STOP THE Oil FLOW TASK FORCE of FBI, Corps of Army Engineers, scientist and private marine construction contractors to begin taking positive action to stop the oil flow permanently. Three months from now (hurricane season) the ecological and economic burden will be so great that the United States of America will be catastrophically bankrupt.
This is right out of Big Oils company playbook: secrecy, stall for time, public relations, litigation protection, maintaining image and owned puppet Congress members to do their bidding.
BP took home $93 million per day in profits?for a total of $6.1 billion?during the first quarter alone. The approximate $3.5 million in damage claims paid out so far by BP are significantly less than CEO Tony Hayward?s 2009 compensation, estimated at over $4,700,000 by Forbes. Senators in Congress are trying to limit BP?s liability and as proof of BP?s prior oil spill conduct in paying liability; look at the Exxon Valdez ongoing 16 year financial litigation fight!
Senator Murkowski, in true reality, by limiting liability for Big Oil, are you and the rest of the members of Congress ?ready? for the horrendous backlash coming your way from the American People?
Call your representatives in Congress and demand that the BP videos of the total damage that show the leaks at the well head, preventer and pipe string be released today! We need to stop the oil flow permanently today!
http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm
http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/mcapdir.html

[1windcatcher]

BP and Obama are lying SOB?s and to add further insult they suggest that the American public is so stupid that we can not estimate the flow of oil. Of course, we need to see video of the TOTAL damage before we can do that! Tell those SOB?s to produce All of the video of the leaking wellhead, preventer and pipe string. TODAY!

[Lizzz33333]

Physics Problem

Pressure of petroleum coming out + weight needed to stop up leak = Band Aide needed.

They need to use gravity to stop this sucker. Drilling relief holes won't work if the pressure is strong enough, it might make things worse and cause the earth's crust to crack further.

Think about it, if you accidentally poke a whole in a water balloon, does poking that same balloon with another whole stop the leak? No.

[culturechang]

I think we may have to face the reality that they may never get this stopped. It is a mile deep and appearently they went into this without any idea or plan to contain such a disaster.

[noloyalisti]

We should nationalize BP so We the People control all their profits and assets and then that can be a warning to the other oil companies.

[wyodutch]

Just keep the oil flowing.
.
As soon as gas hits $6 at the pump... no-one will give a hoot about some oil-soaked seagull.

[greco99-2009]

Perhaps the tens of thousands of people whose property is destroyed and who are put out of work will care a bit more than you do.

How would you feel if someone dumped a bucket of toxic oil on your lawn, business or where your kids play everyday ?

There are also alternatives to oil - wind, solar, smart grid and others - that are economically feasible today, never run out, and can be made here in the USA. Better than a massive taxpayer subsidy and bailout of foreign oil companies. Astroturf that...

[larrryshrine]

There are a great number of people who will "give a hoot about some oil-soaked seagull." I will volunteer to fly to Florida to wash birds. You should too. I suggest you learn to care more about our ecology and this earth's precious resources.

[tw02]

I say its time bp brings in the second graders the firts graders have had enought time to stop it. As Harry Stamper would say "this is your back up plan"

[greco99-2009]

1. Get the universities and professors involved. Create a task force that include multiple companies, professors, and government. Share the data (actually the U.S. should seize the data to prevent it from being destroyed).

2. Get the crooks and liars off the scene. Arrest them if there is clear criminal behavior. This sets helps stop the ongoing harm they are causing and provides a deterrent for further criminal behavior. There are good people in all of these companies, and relatively few bad actors.

Setting a forrest fire recklessly is a crime and you can go to jail. Lying to Federal officials is a crime. Fish out of season or kill one endangered animal and face criminal sanctions. What about someone who kills all the fish in a region or extinguished a species?

A fundamental role of government is to protect the people and their property.

[greco99-2009]

a garden hose at full pressure can fill a gallon jug in a few seconds. So figure 12 gallons per minute times 60 minutes, 720 gallons an hour. Depending on how big your pool is, could take several hours. I have a pool approximately 17,000 gallons it is 27 feet across and 4-5 feet deep. If filling it from empty, it would take me at least 24 hours of non-stop water running. A barrel is 42 gallons - so this is a rate of about 400 barrels per day.

The broken pipe is at least 100 times as powerful as a garden hose...

The initial estimate provided by BP of 1000 barrels per day sure seems like a bald lie to me. And, even the estimate of 5000 barrels per day is a gross underestimate.

Now BP claims they have lost some of the well monitoring data from around the time of the explosion even though there was a relay transmitting it to shore.

Lying to Federal Officials is a crime. The data BP is trying to hide is needed to help understand and fix the problem. Federal and State law enforcement please do your job and protect the millions of Americans who live near the spill...