Unemployment Dogs Obama, Dems' Economic Message
Even as he touts his efforts to put more Americans to work, President Obama faces a public increasingly skeptical of his ability to bring jobs back.
During stops in Iowa, Illinois and Missouri, Obama will try to convince voters that his economic policies are working, despite an unemployment rate that's expected to remain at painfully high levels for months if not years.
Those voters - many of them crucial independents - will be key to Obama's re-election prospects in 2012. And his fellow Democrats, facing a tough political climate in the November elections when control of Congress is at stake, need their support even sooner.
"The bottom line is that the Democrats are almost certain to be campaigning in economic circumstances that will not be politically favorable," said William Galston, a former domestic policy aide in Bill Clinton's White House and now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Economic Recovery? Maybe, But Not Everywhere
The latest economic forecasts do show signs of progress: The U.S. added jobs at the fastest pace in three years last month; the manufacturing industry is growing at a steady pace; and new claims for jobless benefits have declined.
But the unemployment rate - it may be the most recognizable economic indicator - has held steady at 9.7 percent for the past three months, and 15 million Americans remain out of work. By the White House's own estimates, as well as those of many independent economists, that rate isn't expected to fluctuate more than a few tenths of a percent through the end of 2010.
The president's home state of Illinois, where he'll travel Wednesday, has one of the nation's highest unemployment rates, 11.5 percent.
That's a far different reality than what the administration predicted last year, when Obama rallied support for the $787 billion economic stimulus package. At the time, the White House said the massive infusion of taxpayer funds would keep the unemployment rate from topping 8 percent, though the administration later revised those estimates, saying the recession proved to be worse than they expected.
Though the administration wasn't alone in underestimating the impact of the downturn - many independent economists had similar initial forecasts - Republicans see an opening to attack the administration's handling of the economic crisis.
"The unemployment rate is a far cry from where President Obama and the Democrats said it would be," said Ken Spain, communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee. "We're constantly going to remind voters that they promised."
Polls suggest the president and his party are increasingly vulnerable on the economy. Democrats and Republicans each have the confidence of 44 percent of people for handling the economy, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll conducted this month. The Democrats had a 9-point advantage just four months ago and have held an edge since AP polls began asking about the issue in 2006.
Still, White House senior adviser David Axelrod said he's confident those numbers will turn around as the economy continues its slow recovery.
"The president will get credit for the effort," he said. "But there's still a lot of misery and devastation."
White House officials say that while the unemployment rate is an important economic indicator, it doesn't tell the full story. Since the rate is based on the number of people looking for jobs, it's likely to increase or hold steady as positive economic news leads more of the unemployed to restart their job search.
A more telling sign of the impact the stimulus and other job creation programs have had is the number of jobs gained or lost each month, according to administration officials. As Obama is quick to point out, the economy was losing 700,000 jobs a month when he took office. That number has steadily declined, and in March, there were 162,000 jobs created, the most in nearly three years.
Axelrod cautioned that job growth could be choppy over the coming months. And even though the economy is growing again, the slow pace means the 8.4 million jobs lost since the recession began in late 2007 are unlikely to come back quickly.
AP During stops in Iowa, Illinois and Missouri, Obama will try to convince voters that his economic policies are working, despite an unemployment rate that's expected to remain at painfully high levels for months if not years.
Those voters - many of them crucial independents - will be key to Obama's re-election prospects in 2012. And his fellow Democrats, facing a tough political climate in the November elections when control of Congress is at stake, need their support even sooner.
"The bottom line is that the Democrats are almost certain to be campaigning in economic circumstances that will not be politically favorable," said William Galston, a former domestic policy aide in Bill Clinton's White House and now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Economic Recovery? Maybe, But Not Everywhere
The latest economic forecasts do show signs of progress: The U.S. added jobs at the fastest pace in three years last month; the manufacturing industry is growing at a steady pace; and new claims for jobless benefits have declined.
But the unemployment rate - it may be the most recognizable economic indicator - has held steady at 9.7 percent for the past three months, and 15 million Americans remain out of work. By the White House's own estimates, as well as those of many independent economists, that rate isn't expected to fluctuate more than a few tenths of a percent through the end of 2010.
The president's home state of Illinois, where he'll travel Wednesday, has one of the nation's highest unemployment rates, 11.5 percent.
That's a far different reality than what the administration predicted last year, when Obama rallied support for the $787 billion economic stimulus package. At the time, the White House said the massive infusion of taxpayer funds would keep the unemployment rate from topping 8 percent, though the administration later revised those estimates, saying the recession proved to be worse than they expected.
Though the administration wasn't alone in underestimating the impact of the downturn - many independent economists had similar initial forecasts - Republicans see an opening to attack the administration's handling of the economic crisis.
"The unemployment rate is a far cry from where President Obama and the Democrats said it would be," said Ken Spain, communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee. "We're constantly going to remind voters that they promised."
Polls suggest the president and his party are increasingly vulnerable on the economy. Democrats and Republicans each have the confidence of 44 percent of people for handling the economy, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll conducted this month. The Democrats had a 9-point advantage just four months ago and have held an edge since AP polls began asking about the issue in 2006.
Still, White House senior adviser David Axelrod said he's confident those numbers will turn around as the economy continues its slow recovery.
"The president will get credit for the effort," he said. "But there's still a lot of misery and devastation."
White House officials say that while the unemployment rate is an important economic indicator, it doesn't tell the full story. Since the rate is based on the number of people looking for jobs, it's likely to increase or hold steady as positive economic news leads more of the unemployed to restart their job search.
A more telling sign of the impact the stimulus and other job creation programs have had is the number of jobs gained or lost each month, according to administration officials. As Obama is quick to point out, the economy was losing 700,000 jobs a month when he took office. That number has steadily declined, and in March, there were 162,000 jobs created, the most in nearly three years.
Axelrod cautioned that job growth could be choppy over the coming months. And even though the economy is growing again, the slow pace means the 8.4 million jobs lost since the recession began in late 2007 are unlikely to come back quickly.
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Millions are unemployed, but there is new hope for them in the cigarette butt collection business. Trillions of butts can be put into plastic bags and dropped off at the garbage dump. The task is endless because there will always be smokers, and a permanent job. The bag and picks are available. It is now up to the EPA to do the hiring and put Americans back to work.
1. Low interests rates on business loans
2. Deferred payments on loans based on payroll the higher the payroll
the longer the deferment
3. Temporary suspension of fees and taxes associated with starting a business if the new business creates sufficient employment
4. Major incentives for large corporations who hire the unemployed
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The recovery is picking up steam as employers boost payrolls, but economists think the government's stimulus package and jobs bill had little to do with the rebound, according to a survey released Monday.
In latest quarterly survey by the National Association for Business Economics, the index that measures employment showed job growth for the first time in two years -- but a majority of respondents felt the fiscal stimulus had no impact. NABE conducted the study by polling 68 of its members who work in economic roles at private-sector firms. About 73% of those surveyed said employment at their company is neither higher nor lower as a result of the $787 billion Recovery Act, which the White House's Council of Economic Advisers says is on track to create or save 3.5 million jobs by the end of the year.
That sentiment is shared for the recently passed $17.7 billion jobs bill that calls for tax breaks for businesses that hire and additional infrastructure spending. More than two-thirds of those polled believe the measure won't affect payrolls, while 30% expect it to boost hiring "moderately."
http://www.forbes.com/2010/04/23/general-motors-economy-bailout-opinions-columnists-shikha-dalmia.html?boxes=opinionschannellatest
So it is no wonder why people and businesses are hesitant to do anything but lay off people and lay low. Now Obama is making it clear that he will eventually have to raise more taxes on everyone else - a VAT, or overall tax hike. The problem is very simple, we need to cut spending, even if it means that his enormous domestic agenda is going to suffer. Obama would rather spend on his agenda to leave his legacy - or so he appears. Well, his legacy is far less important than our welfare. Perhaps we need to think about jobs, jobs, jobs (as it was first told him over a year ago) - rather than spending more money to bring about the Obama way. The last time I looked, the name of this country was the United States of America - not the United States of Obama. He needs to be reminded that this is about us - not him!