December 20, 2010 12:27 PM
- Text
Which States Will Gain Power After Census?
(CBS)
In our "Where America Stands" series, CBS News is looking at a broad spectrum of issues facing the country in the new decade. This is a look at the census and the upcoming battle over redistricting by Anthony Salvanto and Mark Gersh.
The 2010 census forms are arriving in America's mailboxes. When the results are in they will show that America remains a nation on the move. People are flowing westward and southward over the last ten years as they have for generations.
For most of the past decade, the allure of space, affordable housing and economic opportunity - not to mention warmer weather - has brought people to the West and South, often at the expense of their northern and midwestern counterparts.
Though that movement slowed with the recent recession and housing bust, changes undergone since 2000 are still poised to alter the county's political landscape and touch off some heated battles. The next round of redistricting following the census will re-allocate congressional districts and electoral votes among the states.
Once again the South and West will gain some political clout while some districts in the north will vanish, taking influence along with them. If geography is indeed destiny, then America's future will be increasingly determined by the Sun Belt.
PART I: THE CHANGING MAP
Before tackling the political implications, let's take a look at the overall picture of population movements. The population of the U.S. has grown by around 9 percent since 2000, according to the most recent estimates released before the census. But it's lopsided growth.
While the Northeast grew only 3 percent and the Midwest just 4 percent, the South and West each registered a 13 percent growth rate over the decade. In raw population figures, the South has been the biggest gainer so far with 13 million people added. The growth has been spurred in large part by the Texas, which added four million people and grew at a whopping 19 percent, and Florida, whose population increased by 2.5 million.
While California led the West in raw population growth, the West's percentage growth has been spearheaded by Nevada and Arizona, which grew at an incredible 32 percent and 29 percent respectively. The bulk of that change, of course, occurred before the housing bust, at a time when real estate values soared and land was being developed at a breakneck pace.
The demographic changes are not limited to state of state to state migration, however. The relative youth of people in the Sun Belt could contribute to more long-term growth in the years ahead.
As Dr. Howard Hogan, the U.S. Census Bureau's Associate Director for Demographic Programs notes, the Pacific region is a little younger than the U.S. as a whole. Hogan suggested that in the long term, the growth trend in the west could be bolstered by more births as younger people begin to start families.
Immigration adds to this trend: the Western states have drawn a comparatively large portion and immigrants are often young people. Recent immigrants, those entering between 2000 and 2006, tended to be in their 20's. This is all set against the backdrop of an aging national populace.
Dr. Hogan shows that the number of Americans aged 65 to 74 years is expected to double from 20 million today to nearly 40 million, by 2030. On the other hand, the number of middle-aged people, 45 to 64, is flattening out and will stay around its current level of 80 million during that time frame.
Dollars and Census - Why It Matters
Census Overkill? Why Census Bureau Sends Letters Saying Census Form is Coming
Fast Draw: The Census
Debate About the Census
The regional differences might have been greater still but for the recession slowdown toward the end of the decade. In past recessions, domestic migration continued unabated: job losses in the industrial Midwest fuelled rapid population gains in the Sun Belt. But the 2008-09 unraveling, because it was fueled by the housing bust concentrated in the West and South, forced unemployed workers to stay at home even in states with high rates of unemployment.
For instance the population loss in Michigan, which was suffering from the nation's highest unemployment, actually declined between 2008 and 2009. The U.S. Census Bureau recently showed that boom states of Florida and Nevada experienced negative net migration domestic migration between 2008 and 2009. - Though these dynamics did not negate the decade's overall gains, they did curtail the relative growth.
Within the west, there's a shifting balance of power as California loses relative influence to other western states. Since it joined the Union in 1850, and after each subsequent census, the Golden State has attracted enough new people to gain at least one Congressional seat.
It has grabbed the lion's share of all the House districts awarded to the western U.S. over these last generations. But for the first time in its history it may not gain another seat this year, as a result of the sluggish growth and a drain of residents. (It appears to have lost fewer people toward the end of the decade, though, which may save it from an unprecedented loss of a seat.)
Out-migration from California did not entirely begin with the recent recession. Among the largest state-to-state migration flows from 1995 to 2000 (even before the most recent census) were the hundreds of thousands of Californians leaving for Arizona, Texas, Nevada and Colorado. California's numbers that dominated the national in-state migration trends for the period. And more recently, a Pew Research study from 2008 identified what it called "magnet" and "sticky" states for 2005-2007 and also showed that California had more people moving out than in while Arizona and Colorado were on the list of states with a net of in-movers.
PAGE 2: POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE HOUSE MAKEUP AND 2012 ELECTORAL VOTE MAP
The 2010 census forms are arriving in America's mailboxes. When the results are in they will show that America remains a nation on the move. People are flowing westward and southward over the last ten years as they have for generations.
For most of the past decade, the allure of space, affordable housing and economic opportunity - not to mention warmer weather - has brought people to the West and South, often at the expense of their northern and midwestern counterparts.
Though that movement slowed with the recent recession and housing bust, changes undergone since 2000 are still poised to alter the county's political landscape and touch off some heated battles. The next round of redistricting following the census will re-allocate congressional districts and electoral votes among the states.
Once again the South and West will gain some political clout while some districts in the north will vanish, taking influence along with them. If geography is indeed destiny, then America's future will be increasingly determined by the Sun Belt.
PART I: THE CHANGING MAP
Before tackling the political implications, let's take a look at the overall picture of population movements. The population of the U.S. has grown by around 9 percent since 2000, according to the most recent estimates released before the census. But it's lopsided growth.
While the Northeast grew only 3 percent and the Midwest just 4 percent, the South and West each registered a 13 percent growth rate over the decade. In raw population figures, the South has been the biggest gainer so far with 13 million people added. The growth has been spurred in large part by the Texas, which added four million people and grew at a whopping 19 percent, and Florida, whose population increased by 2.5 million.
(US Census Bureau)
While California led the West in raw population growth, the West's percentage growth has been spearheaded by Nevada and Arizona, which grew at an incredible 32 percent and 29 percent respectively. The bulk of that change, of course, occurred before the housing bust, at a time when real estate values soared and land was being developed at a breakneck pace.
The demographic changes are not limited to state of state to state migration, however. The relative youth of people in the Sun Belt could contribute to more long-term growth in the years ahead.
As Dr. Howard Hogan, the U.S. Census Bureau's Associate Director for Demographic Programs notes, the Pacific region is a little younger than the U.S. as a whole. Hogan suggested that in the long term, the growth trend in the west could be bolstered by more births as younger people begin to start families.
Immigration adds to this trend: the Western states have drawn a comparatively large portion and immigrants are often young people. Recent immigrants, those entering between 2000 and 2006, tended to be in their 20's. This is all set against the backdrop of an aging national populace.
Dr. Hogan shows that the number of Americans aged 65 to 74 years is expected to double from 20 million today to nearly 40 million, by 2030. On the other hand, the number of middle-aged people, 45 to 64, is flattening out and will stay around its current level of 80 million during that time frame.
Dollars and Census - Why It Matters
Census Overkill? Why Census Bureau Sends Letters Saying Census Form is Coming
Fast Draw: The Census
Debate About the Census
The regional differences might have been greater still but for the recession slowdown toward the end of the decade. In past recessions, domestic migration continued unabated: job losses in the industrial Midwest fuelled rapid population gains in the Sun Belt. But the 2008-09 unraveling, because it was fueled by the housing bust concentrated in the West and South, forced unemployed workers to stay at home even in states with high rates of unemployment.
For instance the population loss in Michigan, which was suffering from the nation's highest unemployment, actually declined between 2008 and 2009. The U.S. Census Bureau recently showed that boom states of Florida and Nevada experienced negative net migration domestic migration between 2008 and 2009. - Though these dynamics did not negate the decade's overall gains, they did curtail the relative growth.
Within the west, there's a shifting balance of power as California loses relative influence to other western states. Since it joined the Union in 1850, and after each subsequent census, the Golden State has attracted enough new people to gain at least one Congressional seat.
It has grabbed the lion's share of all the House districts awarded to the western U.S. over these last generations. But for the first time in its history it may not gain another seat this year, as a result of the sluggish growth and a drain of residents. (It appears to have lost fewer people toward the end of the decade, though, which may save it from an unprecedented loss of a seat.)
Out-migration from California did not entirely begin with the recent recession. Among the largest state-to-state migration flows from 1995 to 2000 (even before the most recent census) were the hundreds of thousands of Californians leaving for Arizona, Texas, Nevada and Colorado. California's numbers that dominated the national in-state migration trends for the period. And more recently, a Pew Research study from 2008 identified what it called "magnet" and "sticky" states for 2005-2007 and also showed that California had more people moving out than in while Arizona and Colorado were on the list of states with a net of in-movers.
PAGE 2: POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE HOUSE MAKEUP AND 2012 ELECTORAL VOTE MAP
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