Scientists Saw Haiti Quake Coming

(CBS)  Last week in Eureka, Calif., a dog in the local paper's newsroom seemed to know something was coming long before his owner did, a full six seconds before an earthquake hit. Unfortunately, that's about as good as short-term earthquake forecasting gets.

"We cannot predict earthquakes in the way the public would like us to predict earthquakes," Thomas Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center, said.

U.S. scientists warned back in 2008 that Port-au-Prince was ripe for a catastrophic earthquake, but they had no way of predicting exactly when. Advances are being made, but that kind of precision is still far in the future, reports CBS News Correspondent Ben Tracy.

(Watch the report Tracy submitted below)

Complete Coverage: Devastation in Haiti

For decades, scientists have been focusing on long-term forecasts, successfully measuring the probability that certain fault lines around the world will erupt. California could be next. It's been 300 years since a major quake rocked the southern portion of the San Andreas Fault near Los Angeles.

Scientists here believe there's a 99.7 percent chance that a 6.7 or greater earthquake could hit southern California in the next 30 years, but knowing when is the big question.

Short-term prediction is the elusive holy grail of earthquake science. In April 2009 a major earthquake in Italy was preceded by a series of small earthquakes, known as foreshocks, but that doesn't always mean a big one is coming.

"We can't tell when small earthquakes are foreshocks or when they're part of just background seismic activity," Jordan said.

Scientists have also studied hydroelectric activity and tidal movement but with limited success. Now new research using GPS sensors is focused below plates and fault lines to see if tremors closer to the earth's core lead to quakes on the surface.

Scientists in Texas used that technology in 2008 to predict that Haiti's faultline was primed for a major earthquake.

"The GPS data allows these type of predictions of where these large earthquakes might occur," said Paul Mann of the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics.

Until detection technology improves, preparation is still the best defense. Buildings in the United States must be designed to withstand major seismic events. Unfortunately, Haiti's buildings are not.

"It's really not the earthquake that's killing the people, it's the buildings that fail down on people, that cause most of the casualties," Jordan said.

As Haiti saw this week, that destruction still comes without much warning.


Watch CBS News Videos Online

[gosstom]

On Wed. 1/13/2010, there was a mountain sized object that flew between the Earth and the moon; the "pseudo-scientists" completely missed it until it was well past the danger point.
And you ask why these highly paid incompetants can't predict earthquakes.

[SHEETPAN]

Ask Danny Glover or Pat Robertson. They seem to know what God is thinking.

[SusanStoHelit]

Not much to do - but if they could predict, it could make sure some people do a bit more to have enough water and food on hand. Still, SoCal is a lot different than Haiti - our buildings are built to withstand earthquakes - we'll have some damage, but NOTHING like what Haiti got.

I'm sure we're due, but it doesn't worry me at all.

[sjc_1]

Experts have predicted that there will be a major earthquake between Palm Springs and the San Bernardino mountains in the next 10 years. They are probably right but no one pays attention. What are they suppose to do, move away? They put provisions in a closet and keep shoes under their bed. I am not sure it would do a lot of good if they had definitive proof...that is the nature of people.

[mgunn89512]

Let's focus on helping and being sympathetic. The buildings are shoddy which is common for poor countries. Blaming is not helpful. Thank goodness there's more help and less criticism than in the last major earthquake in china.

[rwsmith29456]

I don't think we are a whole lot better off than poor countries. When a bad hurricane came through some houses in our area were literally blown flat to the ground. Houses aren't supposed to do that but there are ways of skirting building codes and if they can, they will. I discovered that my own house had about 2/3 as many foundation piers as the plans called for.

[au_fait]

I hate scientists who use the words could or may occur. that plus the paper is written on is good enough for a trip to the bathroom. Scientists should either grow some balls and stand behind their predictions or should crawl back into their labs and leave the rest of the world alone!

[SusanStoHelit]

That is what you call a real scientist. Instead of pretending a certainty that quite simply does not exist, they use phrases that come as close as possible to expressing to you what some incredibly complex mathematics and modelling say.

Any so-called scientist who is giving you absolutes is NOT a real scientist - they're a con artist.

[dugudr]

Earthquake forecasting definately possible, same with making life from scratch. These are physical machanical things. When we gather enough data we can create or predict it. It's going to be like breaking a twig. At the beginning there is some crackling and some distinct sounds leading to the breaking.