CDC: H1N1 Flu Toll Expected to Keep Rising

As More Precise Estimates Quadruple Death Toll, Official Says Flu No More Dangerous, But Numbers Will Rise

(CBS/ AP)  Estimates of deaths caused by the swine flu have grown to nearly 4,000 since April, roughly quadrupling previous estimates. But that doesn't mean swine flu suddenly has worsened.

Instead, the federal numbers made public Thursday reflect a long-awaited better attempt to quantify the new flu's true toll. Most cases still don't require a doctor's care.

Swine flu has sickened about 22 million Americans since April and killed about 540 children.

And it's still early in the season.

Special Report: H1N1 Virus
Latest H1N1 Flu Numbers from the CDC

"I am expecting all of these numbers, unfortunately, to continue to rise," said Dr. Anne Schuchat of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "We have a long flu season ahead of us."

Tight supplies of vaccine to combat the illness continue: Not quite 42 million doses are currently available, a few million less than CDC had predicted last week.

A new Associated Press-GfK poll shows nearly 1 in 6 parents has gotten at least some of their children vaccinated against swine flu since inoculations began last month. An additional 14 percent of parents sought vaccine but couldn't find any.

Only about 30 percent of children routinely get flu vaccinations during a normal winter. That even this many have gotten vaccinated against the new flu, which scientists call the 2009 H1N1 strain, despite the shortage suggests CDC's target-the-young message has gotten through.

But three times as many adults have tried and failed to find vaccine for themselves as have succeeded.

And interest among the young adults who also are at high risk is waning fast, found the AP-GfK poll of 1,006 adults nationwide.

"I ask for people's patience," Schuchat told "Early Show" co-anchor Maggie Rodriguez on Friday. "It is very important to get vaccinated and we wish it was easier for you." She added that distribution of the vaccine was "getting better each day."

She said the new numbers would not prompt the CDC to change its recommendations to the public, but that the higher estimates, "emphasize how important our reccomndantions are."

"Antivials are critical," Schuchat told Rodriguez, for people with "warning signs" or underlying medical conditions.

Until Thursday, the CDC has conservatively estimated more than 1,000 deaths and "many millions" of new H1N1 infections. The agency was devoting more time to battling the pandemic than to counting it. Earlier figures were based on laboratory-confirmed cases even as doctors largely quit using flu tests months ago - and experts knew that deaths from things like the bacterial pneumonia that often follows flu were being missed.

Thursday's report attempts to calculate the first six months of the new H1N1 strain's spread, from April through mid-October. The CDC said:

- Some 98,000 people have been hospitalized from this new flu or its complications, including 36,000 children, 53,000 adults younger than 65 and 9,000 older adults.

- Deaths could range from a low of 2,500 to as many as 6,100, depending on how the data's analyzed. CDC settled on 3,900 as the best estimate.

- Some 8 million children have become ill, 12 million adults younger than 65 and 2 million older adults.

In a typical winter, seasonal flu strains cause 200,000 U.S. hospitalizations and 36,000 deaths, the vast majority in people over 65. Seasonal influenza doesn't usually start circulating until November. Swine flu began a big climb in September, leading to what CDC called unprecedented high levels of illness so early in a season - and no way to know when the flu will peak.

The estimate of child deaths may seem especially surprising, considering the CDC's conservative count of lab-confirmed pediatric deaths a week ago was 129.

"We don't think things have changed from last week to this week," Schuchat stressed, explaining the importance of looking beyond those lab counts. It's "a better estimate for the big picture of what's out there."

The question now is what effect those estimates will have on a public that largely views swine flu as not that big a threat.

The AP-GfK poll, conducted last weekend, found just 23 percent of responders - and 27 percent of parents - were very likely to keep seeking vaccine.

Stephanie Hannon of Douglas, Mass., decided to get a swine flu vaccine for just one of her three children, the one at extra risk because of asthma. She's concerned that the swine flu vaccine hasn't been studied long enough to justify for her less-at-risk youngsters.

"Only because of my other daughter's condition, I felt like I didn't have a choice," she said. "You never know if you make the right decision."

Swine flu targets young adults, too, yet just 16 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds were very likely to seek vaccine, down from 34 percent in September.

The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Nov. 5-9 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Media. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,006 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

[legionofwolves]

what is the same is how they attempt to use fear. for bush it was terrorists, for obama its swine flu. remember the time b told us to go buy duck-tape and tarps to seal up the inside of our houses against a biological attack, just wait the "new administration" will do the same right around the peak of this pandemic.
22 million people have had swine flu, 4,000 deaths, one person out of every 5500 has died bc of swine flu. i dont know anyone who has been able to confirm to me that they even had swine flu when they were sick since this summer. the doctors dont even chek u for it when u go to see them bc you feel sick, something about the test they have at their offices doesnt have the ability to detect it.
something doesnt seem right or exactly straight-foward with this, i just cant shake that feeling.

[Sloughfoot]

Numbers, numbers numbers, where and who are grabbing these outta their ..... Just last week a media report stated that no tabulation of flu cases was being kept since it was declared a pandemic back in July, now all of a sudden we have numbers to incite the Public - Give me a break.

[parisdakar]

Here we go. Now they've figured out how to inflate the numbers to make the situation look worse. Why don't they include people who have had heart attacks from worrying about H1N1? And don't forget people who have gotten killed in car accidents on their way to get an H1N1 vaccine? Lets try to make the numbers as big as possible to increase demand for the vaccine, which makes $$ for the pharmas, creates more jobs, makes politicians and officials look like they're on the ball. A little panic is good for everything, right? BS

[wyodutch]

Once more.. someone tosses out the old "...Can't blame these issues on Bush.".
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When are we going to wake up to the fact that there is no difference between the Liars Club (Republicans) and the Thieves Club (Democrats).
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Both parties have the same agenda... Bigger Government... Curtailing of individual freedom and privacy... More intrusive government... The Surveillance State.

[nowhiningallowed]

The under-reporting of numbers, in this situation and like so many others with this administration is their idea of new math. Perhaps all of them should go back to school and begin all over again with rudiments of basic math. Disgraceful and the media continues to give this administration and the president a pass in not criticizing, questioning or condemning. More missteps by the president and his administration. Can't blame these issues on Bush.

[skyhawk761]

Sort of like the "fuzzy" math used by W by keeping the cost of both wars out of his deficit so it wouldn't show hundreds of BILLIONS of dollars it was costing? That also gave a false bottom line for his deficits.