CDC Raises H1N1 Flu Death Toll to 4,000

Four-Fold Increase Based On More Accurate Estimates, Taking Into Account Deaths from Complications

(CBS/AP)  Federal health officials now say that 4,000 or more Americans likely have died from swine flu - about four times the estimate they've been using.

The new, higher figure was first reported by The New York Times. It includes deaths caused by complications related to swine flu, including pneumonia and bacterial infections.

Until now, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had conservatively put the U.S. swine flu death count at more than 1,000. Officials said this week they're working on an even more accurate calculation.

"This comes down to an accounting issue," CBS News medical correspondent Jennifer Ashton said on the "Early Show" Thursday.

Special Report: H1N1 Virus

Latest H1N1 Flu Numbers from the CDC
The CDC - noting that estimating flu cases is extremely difficult because many infected people do not see treatment - estimates that between 14 million and 34 million cases of 2009 H1N1 occurred between April and October 17, 2009. The mid-level in this range is about 22 million people infected with 2009 H1N1.
The cases resulted in between 63,000 and 153,000 H1N1-related hospitalizations during the same time period, the CDC said.
Ashton reported Monday after visiting the Center's headquarters in Atlanta that the CDC's death count of 1,000 was likely a gross underestimation.

Send Dr. Jennifer Ashton your question for "Ask It Early"
Dr. Jennifer Ashton's Twitter page

"The Early Show" learned during its inside look at the government's battle with H1N1, the tracking system in place doesn't always give a full picture of the pandemic.

The numbers being reported are from flu model estimates - not the actual numbers, Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the CDC, told CBS News.

"It's a little counter intuitive," Frieden said, "but the best way to estimate the total burden of illness is not to count the cases, but to estimate them based on the best available science."

Ashton said the current report of 4,000 deaths is in the "predictable range" and it's important to follow the trends more than the actual numbers.

Ashton pointed out, however, that things are very different when reporting pediatric flu deaths. She said states are required to document each case with the CDC, and every week the updated numbers are an accurate reflection of the entire country.

[AKNH]

CBS News, please do not stop trying to find out why the CDC told states to stop testing for H1N1 in July, and why they won't share that information despite your reporter's request under the Freedom of Information Act.

"It's a little counter intuitive," Frieden said, "but the best way to estimate the total burden of illness is not to count the cases, but to estimate them based on the best available science."

A little counter intuitive? Do you think?

What percent of the U.S. population is 22 million? Wouldn't it be nice if the people who've had H1N1 knew who they were, so they didn't have to struggle to find the vaccine and compete with others for the limited supply?

These suddenly wildly increased flu numbers remind me of the "stimulus" numbers, which are turning out to have no basis in fact. What is up with the fed gov??

[2012EOD]

Katrina Deaths = 1,577
US Swine Flu = 4,000

More than twice that of Katrina.

Someone has some explaining to do.

And now, the Democrats tell us, let us run health care, trust us.

Please.

[theonik]

You gave a google website on the news this morning where the vaccine could be found in your state. I searched google and was unable to find the site. I would appreciate if you could email me the information

[stn_sage]

This is a FARCE! It looks like CDC no longer practices medicine OR science but has converted it's function to 'propaganda machine' for sales of vaccine!

It's NOT science to include every death related to pneumonia or bacterial disease and CALL it swine flu...primarily to increase the total of deaths attributed to it!

It's clear the CDC no longer has the best interest of the public at heart...but now serves the medico/pharma/insurance industries!

It's clear also that the public should believe very little they hear coming from the CDC...and those doctors who are taking part in this 'non-science' effort...ought to have their licenses revoked!

[bubbadubba]

Well it only has 31,000 more deaths to go to catch up with the regular flu that kills 36,000 in the US every single year.
Then there is another story today that says the deaths and threat to us from H1N1 are OVERestimated.
News? I call it "people writing or saying what they want to believe and passing it off as truth".