Taliban Surpasses Al Qaeda in Afghanistan

Washington Post: Shifting Power Dynamic Could Influence Where U.S. Focuses Firepower

(Washington Post)  This story was written by Joshua Partlow.

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As violence rises in Afghanistan, the power balance between insurgent groups has shifted, with a weakened al-Qaeda relying increasingly on the emboldened Taliban for protection and the manpower to carry out deadly attacks, according to U.S. military and intelligence officials.

The ascendancy of the Taliban and the relative decline of al-Qaeda have broad implications for the Obama administration as it seeks to define its enemy in Afghanistan and debates deploying tens of thousands of additional troops.

Although the war in Afghanistan began as a response to al-Qaeda terrorism, there are perhaps fewer than 100 members of the group left in the country, according to a senior U.S. military intelligence official in Kabul who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

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The official estimated that there are 300 al-Qaeda members in the tribal areas of Pakistan, where the group is based, compared with tens of thousands of Taliban insurgents on either side of the border.

Yet officials and observers here differ over whether the inversion of the groups' traditional power dynamic has led to better or worse relations. Indeed, it may be bringing al-Qaeda closer to certain Taliban factions -- most notably, forces loyal to former Taliban cabinet minister Jalaluddin Haqqani -- and driving it apart from others, including leader Mohammad Omar's Pakistan-based group. The shifting alliances, analysts say, could have significant bearing on where the U.S. military chooses to focus its firepower.

Although President Obama has said the United States must remain in Afghanistan because a Taliban victory here would mean a rapid proliferation of al-Qaeda fighters as they return to their pre-2001 sanctuary, Omar's faction seems to have distanced itself from al-Qaeda in recent months.

The shift appears to reflect Omar's growing confidence that his group can operate on its own, without al-Qaeda as its patron. "The Taliban have got the expertise, they have got the resources, they have got the momentum," said Richard Barrett, coordinator of the U.N. Taliban and al-Qaeda Monitoring Team.

The Taliban and al-Qaeda have long enjoyed a symbiotic relationship. The Taliban, composed primarily of ethnic Pashtuns from Afghanistan and Pakistan, has offered haven to the Arab-led al-Qaeda in exchange for money, weapons and training. When Omar ruled nearly all of Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, he sheltered al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and refused to turn him over to the United States after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. The subsequent U.S. invasion of Afghanistan forced Omar and bin Laden to flee to Pakistan.

Agendas diverge

Omar's mission is to force U.S. and NATO troops from Afghanistan and to recapture the country. His group is particularly active in attacking U.S. troops in southern Afghanistan, his home base.

This year, Omar's military committee published a rule book for followers, calling on them to protect the population and avoid civilian casualties -- much like U.S. counterinsurgency principles. He has railed against the corruption of President Hamid Karzai's government, an issue that resonates with Afghans. He has also solicited support from other Muslim countries. But al-Qaeda's agenda of global holy war and taste for mass-casualty attacks, no matter how many Muslim civilians are killed, complicate that goal.

In a February interview with al-Samoud magazine, Taliban political committee leader Agha Jan Mutassim praised the Saudi Arabian government, called for Muslim unity and said the Taliban "respects all different Islamic schools and branches without any discrimination" in Afghanistan.

Such positions may put Omar's Taliban at odds with al-Qaeda's extremist Sunni agenda of overthrowing what it sees as corrupt Muslim governments and targeting Shiites. Analysts said that Omar, who leads a council of Taliban commanders based in or around the Pakistani city of Quetta, wants such countries as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Pakistan to recognize the Taliban as a legitimate government if it regains power and that he has little interest in fomenting war elsewhere.

"We assure all countries that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, as a responsible force, will not extend its hand to cause jeopardy to others," Omar said in a written statement in September.

The messages from the Taliban leadership since the spring amount to something of a "revolution," said Wahid Mujda, a political analyst who was a Foreign Ministry official under the Taliban government. "Al-Qaeda's path is now different from the Taliban's path, and they are growing more separated."

Other, closer ties

Although that may be true of Omar's faction, observers here say that other segments of the Taliban have become more closely entwined with al-Qaeda than ever.

The Haqqani-led faction, which is blamed for many of the deadliest attacks on U.S. troops in eastern Afghanistan, works so closely with al-Qaeda that distinctions between the groups may be irrelevant, officials said.

In the lawless border town of Miran Shah in Pakistan's North Waziristan region, where insurgents hold sway and experience little interference from the Pakistani army, Haqqani's Taliban works side by side with al-Qaeda. Haqqani developed close ties with Arab fighters during the war against the Soviets in the 1980s, during which he received funding from the CIA and Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency. One of his wives is Arab. When bin Laden fled the U.S. invasion in 2001, he took refuge with Haqqani in a safe house between the Afghan city of Khost and Miran Shah, according to Pakistani author Ahmed Rashid.

Haqqani's network, which experts say maintains links with Pakistani authorities, fights in eastern Afghanistan. But the group is also blamed for much of the violence in Kabul. After an attack on a U.N. guesthouse last month that killed eight people, Afghan officials said Haqqani's fighters planned the assault with the help of an al-Qaeda operative.

On the battlefield, insurgents from al-Qaeda and a broad spectrum of Taliban factions still communicate and coordinate attacks, officials said. United by a common enemy, they share explosives and use the same suicide-bomber networks. A foreign fighter who travels to the Pakistani tribal lands to join al-Qaeda may end up working with the Taliban.

"Al-Qaeda is the teacher of the Taliban. They're still very close partners," said Maj. Gen. Abdul Manan Farahi, director general of the Afghan Interior Ministry's anti-terrorism department. "It's very clear, the ideological connection they have."

Despite its weakened state, there is little doubt that al-Qaeda remains a potent international force, and there is reason to believe that cooperation with Pakistani Taliban groups is deepening.

As the world's premier terrorist brand, al-Qaeda "still has an iconic value, an emulation value," a senior U.S. military official said.

And yet, Omar's Taliban, at least, may not want to repeat recent history, when his group's loyalty to al-Qaeda spoiled the Taliban's opportunity to defeat rival Afghan factions and rule the entire country.

"If you debrief senior Taliban guys, they'll tell you that al-Qaeda stole the victory, because they were going to win prior to the World Trade Center attacks," the U.S. military intelligence official said. "The more they connect themselves to al-Qaeda, the less the population's going to welcome them back."

[stillunbanable]

"Only 100 Al Qaeda members left in Afghanistan?"

Good to see the census workers are doing their jobs. I was wondering why the census form asked me if I was a member of Al Quaeda. Is this a real news article, or is it April Fool's Day? Really SeeBSnews, You have really out done yourselves this time!

[Ms_enza]

Washington Post. Not CBS. Illiterate much?

[edgy44]

Bottom line, there is still Mullah Omar, and Shiek Bin Laden. Nothing else counts in the census.

[Ms_enza]

But they are in Pakistan... having slipped through the elite fingers of Bush's best.

[stillunbanable]

What a ridiculous story by SeeBS. Is SeeBS trying to start a murder competition between the Taliban and alqaeda? Just senseless!

[lovenpeace1]

stillunbanable,

CbsNews created this article because there is no Twitting from Sarah Palin today for Americans to digest with excitements.

[stillunbanable]

LOL

[mljohns00]

Only 100 Al Qaeda members left in Afghanistan? How about we offer them $1,000,000 apiece and a condo in Miami Beach, just to not bother us anymore?

[stillunbanable]

"Only 100 Al Qaeda members left in Afghanistan?"

Good to see the census workers are doing their jobs. I was wondering why the census form asked me if I was a member of Al Quaeda. Is this a real news article, or is it April Fool's Day? Real SeeBSnews, You have really out done yourselves this time!

[YourVeryWrong]

Paranoiac bullying is such a change for the CBS News board.

[stn_sage]

I do NOT recall the intelligence apparatus of the U.S. making a definitive statement of how many al queda members exist in Afghanistan!

This is probably because they do NOT want to be 'pinned down' on that question! But, presumably the discussion has always implied that it is far less than the number of Taliban fighters!

But, I do notice a convenient argument they pose for keeping us in the quagmire that is Afghanistan...it goes like:

...when al queda activity is down, we must stay because Taliban activity is up...when Taliban activity is down, we must stay because al queda activity is up! In other words, 'THEY' just want to stay! Period!

In other words, the leaders of the U.S. government should just come forward and be honest about these types of wars and WHY we are REALLY fighting them! Al Queda...no! Taliban...no!

[lovenpeace1]

Hey stn_sage,

8 years later, you are asking this intelligence question because you do not know it? Where have you been all these years, playing Video Games or watching TV or surfing the internet?

[Brokennews]

"Taliban Surpasses Al Qaeda in Afghanistan"


It's all in the marketing! Al Qaeda offers 72 virgins while Taliban offers 84 virgins along with full dental & a 401K plan.

[unbanable]

HAHAHAHA

[YourVeryWrong]

I guess all those Americans are good for is killing the Taliban and its supporters.

[lmartink]

The Taliban are like Saddam. Neither one of them attacked us. Al Qaeda may have a few members trickling across the Pakistani border with the Taliban. But for the most part Al Qaeda has become de-centralized, and they do not need firm command and control to achieve their objectives.

Those persistent predator drones have done more damage to Al Qaeda than you might believe.

[lovenpeace1]

by lovenpeace1 November 11, 2009 11:31 AM EST
Americans are doing an awesome job of consuming as much of the Opium (heroin) plant as possible. This heroin business finances the Taliban. There is absolutely no need for special hidden bank accounts and donations.

Keep up the Addiction!
*********************************
by Empire-George November 11, 2009 12:02 PM EST
Why do you assume or how do you conclude, that the Opiates in the U.S. are from Afghanistan, and not from Asia or other countries ?
****************************
Amigo Joe,

Digest the following sad but true facts about Americans:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/additional-publications/heroin-movement-worldwide/consumption.html

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2086.html

http://www.justice.gov/dea/pubs/state_factsheets/connecticut.html

http://www.vhrc.org/demand_a_balanced_approach.html

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/08/19/health/main5251528.shtml?tag=stack

I hope this digestion was not too bad to your addicted stomach.

[Empire-George]

by lovenpeace1 November 11, 2009 1:41 PM EST

I hope this digestion was not too bad to your addicted stomach.
_______________________

What is this supposed to mean ?

Secondly, your own links confirmed what I was asking you.

"Although most illicit heroin consumed in India originates in Afghanistan or Pakistan....."

"Most Southeast Asian heroin is imported into North America "

"Afghanistan and Pakistan produced an estimated 41 percent of the world?s opium in 1998. Europe remains the primary market for Southwest Asian heroin"

So.....what I said was correct, you just assume that Afghan opiates are going to the U.S. when that's not necessarily the case....the U.S. consumed opiates, most likely come from Asia, not Afghan/pakistan.

[hungry1968-17]

by Empire-George November 11, 2009 12:02 PM EST
Why do you assume or how do you conclude, that the Opiates in the U.S. are from Afghanistan, and not from Asia or other countries ??







90% of the world's opium supply comes from Afghanistan, and America is by far the biggest consumer - legally AND illegally.

Simple math will help you figure this one out.

[mjlewis6]

If the Taliban were engaged to become a political force in Afghanistan, they would have to give up the military struggle against the government, support the capitulation of Al Qaeda, and lastly sign a peace accord with Kabul. Victory for Afghans would be an end to the war and the relocation of US Forces to other theaters that are still actively fighting Al Qaeda and its assets.

President Karzai has been trying for two years to engage the Taliban with no success. With this shift in policies, there may be an accomodation for peace possible between the rural ethnic groups and the urban educated Afghanis that are literally at a civil war over the future of Afghanistan. Al Qaeda does not provide a constructive part of any rebuilding plan for Afghanistan and hence, must be seen as a threat to any government, including the Taliban, that signs an accord with the United States or with the Karzai government.

[YourVeryWrong]

Americans need to rip out the lying tongues of the Taliban and its half-witted supporters.

[lovenpeace1]

Americans are doing an awesome job of consuming as much of the Opium (heroin) plant as possible. This heroin business finances the Taliban. There is absolutely no need for special hidden bank accounts and donations.

Keep up the Addiction!

[Empire-George]

Why do you assume or how do you conclude, that the Opiates in the U.S. are from Afghanistan, and not from Asia or other countries ??

[thesevenveils]

If this were the case, the American forces would not be burning and destroying the opium stocks grown by the taliban. The Hey, we'll kill you for drinking a beer but smoking opium is OK group.

[lovenpeace1]

by lovenpeace1 November 11, 2009 11:31 AM EST
Americans are doing an awesome job of consuming as much of the Opium (heroin) plant as possible. This heroin business finances the Taliban. There is absolutely no need for special hidden bank accounts and donations.

Keep up the Addiction!

*********************************

by Empire-George November 11, 2009 12:02 PM EST
Why do you assume or how do you conclude, that the Opiates in the U.S. are from Afghanistan, and not from Asia or other countries ?

****************************

Amigo Joe,

Digest the following sad but true facts about Americans:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/additional-publications/heroin-movement-worldwide/consumption.html

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2086.html

http://www.justice.gov/dea/pubs/state_factsheets/connecticut.html

http://www.vhrc.org/demand_a_balanced_approach.html

I hope this digestion was not too terrible to your addicted stomach.

[YourVeryWrong]

It's true, the natives in that part of the world can digest opium better than anyone, and their halfwitted culture is the result.