Southern Dems Fear Republican Gains

After GOP Wins on Tuesday, Many Worry About Rising Anti-Democratic Tide in the South

(AP)  Southern Democrats who watched the trouncing of their party's gubernatorial nominee in Virginia this week are starting to worry that a rising anti-Democratic tide in the South may reverse their hard-fought gains from the last two national elections.

If the Virginia race signals a growing movement against the party's agenda, Democrats know it will be particularly fierce in the Southeast next year. Even the perception of such a trend is enough to seriously damage the party's ability to recruit top candidates in the region. On Capitol Hill, it could convince moderates to distance themselves from the party on key votes, such as health care.

"Obviously you pay attention to it, you'd be a fool not to," said Rep. Bob Etheridge, a North Carolina Democrat who said he will make a long-awaited decision by this weekend on whether to challenge Republican Sen. Richard Burr.

Democrats made significant inroads in 2006 and 2008, winning House seats even in states like Mississippi and Alabama that had long been in Republican hands. President Barack Obama was the first Democrat to win Virginia since 1964, and he also won North Carolina. Democrats also picked up Senate seats in both states that could prove pivotal to their agenda.

All Election Night 2009 Results

But on Tuesday in Virginia, Republican Bob McDonnell won by 18 percentage points, three times Obama's margin of a year ago, and three freshman Democrats saw their districts vote overwhelmingly for the Republican candidate. Those numbers caught the attention of Democrats in Deep Southern states that didn't support Obama.

Democrats are particularly vulnerable in the South, where Republicans still dominate politically despite the recent Democratic gains. Nearly half of the 20 Democratic seats Republicans think they can win in 2010 are in the South, and a number of veteran House Democrats not on the Republican target list could quickly become vulnerable in a conservative wave.

The favorable climate of 2006 and 2008 also emboldened many promising Democrats to enter Senate and gubernatorial races next year, and those candidates now are worried they may be facing a different electoral mood.

Rep. Artur Davis of Alabama, a rising Democratic star in Washington, is giving up his House seat in a bid to become his state's first black governor. Democrats talked Rep. Charlie Melancon into trying to unseat Republican Sen. David Vitter in Louisiana, and Georgia Democrats convinced former Gov. Roy Barnes to take another shot at the office, giving them a proven commodity in a heavily conservative state.

South Carolina Democrats are hopeful they can take advantage of Gov. Mark Sanford's out-of-state extramarital affair to win the governor's mansion, and in Florida, for the first time since the late 1800s, every statewide position on the ballot is an open seat, including Senate and gubernatorial races.

Not all Southern Democrats are worried by the Virginia results.

Some insisted the race was decided on state issues and had nothing to do with what's happening in Washington, while several said it suggested Democrats should act more boldly.

"I saw a depressed Democratic base ... What that told me was that Democrats have to deliver for their base," said Rep. Gerry Connolly, one of four Virginia Democrats targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee. "What I conclude from last night is that we gotta pass health care."

Others said it was a clear signal that Democrats should scale back and slow down.

"I think it's a warning," said Griffith. "I think we need to listen."

There's near unanimous agreement that the economy is paramount, and that if Democrats don't do more to convince voters that they're working to create jobs, the Virginia outcome could be replicated widely in 2010.

"It's obvious that the voters are frustrated, and most of the time the frustration is taken out on the party in power," said Steve Raby, a Democratic political consultant in Alabama who has conducted extensive polling there recently. "I don't believe the frustration is specifically targeted at Democrats. I think it's just targeted at incumbents."

[gboyd41]

Not only southern Democrats should be concerned about their jobs, all Dems should be concerned!

[j_mcdonald-2009]

Deeds lost because Democrats thought he was not progressive enough (58% "not progressive enough", 8% "too progressive" according to recent polls), so a huge number simply stayed home.

If Deeds had endorsed the public option instead of opposing it, there is every indication he would have won.
The number of Democrats who decided to sit this election out for that reason is more than double the margin he lost by. (Granted, he would have lost some votes in the other direction, but only about one fifth.)

If your goal is to look for reasons to be conservative, you can invent reasons anywhere, but eventually reality will kick you upside the head if you ignore it, as Deeds just learned.

[jeremybuch]

Please, please, please, southern dems...do it...go for the gusto! No guts, no glory! Ram the "progressive" agenda through! The more the "progressives" start openly yapping about what they plan to do, instead of operating in the shadows, the more it fires up conservative Americans. Last I heard, (from the mainstream media) 80% of Americans are either moderate or conservative. Nothing wakes up the sleeping giant more than progressives in action! Come on! Give it your best shot! :)

[hakori]

jeremybuch , last I heard only 20% of Americans considered themselves republicans. Keep up your tea parties; keep up the hatful language; keep up the not so veiled racism; keep up the overt hatred of gays; and keep on truning off moderates. It's a whining stradegy for your side and winning stradegy for democrats! You guys are so happy about the two governors you picked up, but you seem to skim over the fact you lost two more house seats from conservative districts. I'm so looking forward to 2010 then on to 2012!

[hakori]

jeremybuch, I'm from the south and the south will continue to vote republican regardless. Fortunately, the rest of the country seems to be moving forward. What blue dogs in the south don't understand is that their seats will go to a republican if they don't show results. Passing health care may actually save their seats. Once we're no longer held hostage by the insurance companies, people will see just how bad it was. So, yes...go for the gusto and "ram" through the Progressive agenda southern dems! It will set you free!

[element51]

We all know that the Republicans are the party of big business. No one can dispute that fact. Therefore it stands to reason that since big business does NOT want the health care reform bill passed that the republicans would not support it. This opposition does not stem from differences in idiology but from the republican's aliegence with big business. They are NOT concerned with the welfare of working Americans but only with the welfare of big business. As for a republican resurgence in the south, one should not be surprised since the south is full of evangical nut jobs who are glued to their radios when Limbaugh and Beck are on. I agree with a previous poster who suggested that you southern democrats grew a pair and stand up for what your party believes in. If you can't do that then you deserve to lose.

[chonder2]

REPUBLICAN GAME PLAN FOR AMERICA AFTER THE NOVEMBER 2008 ELECTION--

Captain Limbarf:"Leftenants Bohner and Steele"!!

Bohner and Steele: "SIR"!!

Captain Limbarf: "It appears that the Democrats have won fair and square and are boarding the good ship America".

Bohner and Steele:"Yes sir"!

Captain Limbarf:"Well Leftenants, there is only one thing left to do in the finest Conservative tradition"

Bohner and Steele:"Yes sir Captain,you mean hand over the rudder to them and wish them God speed"??

Captain Limbarf:"NO! Scuttle the ship"!!

[gboyd41]

Dems, this is just a preview of what is coming.

[hakori]

gboyd41-uh, do you mean we're going to pick up even more house seats? You can have all the governors you want; they don't vote in congress. So I truely do hope this is a preview of what's coming!

[bradkt1]

To the Southern Dems:

Grow a pair and stop whining! You are trying to stay in the middle and have it both ways and the only result is that you will be in the middle of the crossfire between the left and the right. Meanwhile, you are hurting your party by preventing it from actually accomplishing anything. Stop trying to have it both ways. You were elected to lead.

[nearl451]

This all has to do with voter turn out and demographics. Progressives are not well motivated right now.

A threat of returning to the horror of the last decade WILL motivate them. Pass a couple of liberal bill and the young and progressive will show up.

[rightbehind]

One thing for sure is if they are worried about their own hides they are done anyway. They better grow a spine and represent the people that put them in office. They start acting like democrats instead of just calling themselves democrats they might just have a chance. The republicans didn't vote for them anyway. The republicans wrote a bill. Expose it for what it is and use it as a reason for passing the democratic bill.

[skyk-2009]

They should rename the Republican Party, the Confederate Party. Democrats have to be Democrats and failing to support your President is certain, no doubt about it death. You go with your President and he is successful and all is forgotten.

[mav547166]

The Democrats already own that title. Read your history books, and quit trying to race bait.

[hakori]

mav547166, now that's rich! The dems are the racist! HA! Like I always say, the right has perfected a knack for accusing the opposition of exactly what they do best. You really need educate yourself!