Experts Say H1N1 Outrunning Vaccine

Washington Post: Even for High-Risk Groups, Vaccinations May Not be Widely Available Until December or January

(Washington Post)  This story was written by David Brown.

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Two state and city public health officials briefing Congress on Wednesday said they don't expect to have enough pandemic-flu vaccine to meet the needs of their high-priority population groups until well into December, and possibly not until January.

The officials said that their predictions are a result of maddening vaccine shortages throughout the fall but that they amount to little more than guesses.

Federal health officials at the same briefing refused to endorse the gloomy timetable -- or any other one -- although they acknowledged that the current wave of H1N1 influenza may be mostly over by the time the vaccine is abundant.

60 Minutes: An Inside Look at H1N1 Vaccine Production
CBSNews.com Special Coverage: H1N1

"Current projections show that 62 percent of Alabama's vaccine will not be available until after December 1," Donald E. Williamson, the state's health officer, told a House Appropriations subcommittee. Offering flu shots to people outside the five priority recipient groups "may not be possible until late December or January."

The director of the public health department in St. Paul, Minn., said he thinks it will be "sometime between Christmas and mid-January" before there is enough vaccine to fully immunize the high-risk groups -- pregnant women, health workers, parents caring for newborns, people 6 months through 24 years old and chronically ill people ages 25 through 64.

"I don't think we'll have enough before then," said Rob Fulton, adding that what's true for St. Paul is probably true for all of Minnesota.

The federal government has ordered 250 million doses of pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine. It has said that will be more than enough to satisfy demand among the country's 308 million residents. The high-priority groups include 159 million people.

As of this week, 32.3 million doses of pandemic vaccine had been made available to states and cities by the federal government, which is controlling the entire U.S. supply.

Members of the House Appropriations subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services, Education and Related Agencies repeatedly queried the federal officials about timelines for future supplies. While five weeks ago they were still predicting that there would be more than 100 million doses by now, none of the officials would hazard a guess.

"We have been working extremely hard with each manufacturer to make sure all of the stumbling blocks are out of the way," Nicole Lurie, assistant secretary for preparedness and response at the Department of Health and Human Services, told Rep. David R. Obey (D-Wis.), chairman of the subcommittee. "Flu is really unpredictable. We're pretty hesitant about projecting ahead more than week to week."

Thomas R. Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, also declined to look ahead, saying, "We have been burned, quite frankly, by predictions that have not come to pass." Under later questioning, he did say that "it is quite likely that the current wave of influenza will peak, crest and begin to decline before there are ample supplies" of vaccine.

Pandemic influenza -- defined as a highly contagious strain to which virtually everyone in the world is susceptible -- tends to move through populations in waves, sometimes over several years. For example, the Asian flu of 1957, which bears many similarities to the current pandemic, was responsible for about 60,000 "excess deaths" in the United States. About 40,000 occurred in the summer and fall of 1957, and 20,000 in the late winter and early spring of 1958.

The chief reason there is so little flu vaccine is that the novel H1N1 grows slowly in fertilized chicken eggs, the medium where it is made in industrial quantities.

Normally, vaccine-makers expect to get two to three doses of vaccine out of each egg injected. At the start of production in the summer, the yield was 0.2 to 0.5 doses per egg, said Robin Robinson, director of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, which is part of HHS. After tinkering with growth conditions and other variables, it is now 1.3 to 2 doses per egg.

"If we had been getting 2.5 doses per egg [throughout the summer and fall], we wouldn't be having this hearing now," he said.

The vaccine shortage is the consequence of the virus's biology, not human laziness or incompetence, the officials told the lawmakers many times.

"I don't want people to get the impression that it is the drug companies' fault in not getting this delivered," said Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Government officials have asked the four makers of injectable vaccine to put most of their current production into multi-dose vials, which can be filled about five times more quickly than single-dose vials or pre-filled syringes and may save a little time.

[wyodutch]

Well, here's part of the reason there is a vaccine shortage....
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WASHINGTON, Sept. 17 (UPI) - The United States is prepared to make 10 percent of its H1N1 vaccine supply available to other countries, an announcement by the White House said Thursday.
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"In recognition that diseases know no borders and that the health of the American people is inseparable from the health of people around the world. the United States is taking this action." the White House statement said.
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"The United States will make the H1N1 vaccine available to the World Health Organization on a rolling basis as vaccine supplies become available."

[baker_s]

Why isn't anyone addressing the issues from Mercola's recent interview with Dr. Blaylock?

http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2009/11/03/What-We-Have-Learned-About-the-Great-Swine-Flu-Pandemic.aspx

He is a board certified neurosurgeon, author and lecturer who does full-time research now on issues such as the swine flu vaccine. He believes it is the biggest cover-ups in American history. All the data he uses for his analysis are from the CDC. This should be the top story on all the news stations yet it is being ignored. He also goes into how the H1N1 vaccine can affect pregnant women and increase their chances of having an autistic child. Meanwhile, these poor women are rushing to be vaccinated without any knowledge of what they could be doing to their unborn child. This is really scary stuff.

CBS...please be the ones to get to the bottom of this!

[anti-h1N1]

I'm not anti-vaccination, as a rule. I read that article a few days ago. Thanks for posting it for others to see. I will not be getting my two children the flu vaccines, but I am doing everything else I can (frequent handwashing, carrying clorox wipes in my diaper bag, etc.) to keep them healthy. We need to get the word out. I am terrified to see the results this vaccine will have on the as-yet unborn babies who have been exposed to it while in utero...
We need to stop the scare tactics, and promote alternative methods of protection more.

[bc-1948]

This is capitalism at it's finest - remember that the vaccine is made by private Pharmacutical companies - not the government

[gtwildfire]

That's my point. If the vaccine were available when it would have been most beneficial, the amount of cases of H1N1 would have been far fewer, giving the virus much less opportunity to mutate in the first place.

This is now a pathetic mess and our kids are going to pay the biggest price for these screwups. I want a congressional inquiry that'll make Katrina look like a stuffed animal tea party.

[gtwildfire]

Here's a followup: I just checked my school district's website. They finally announced that the H1N1 vaccine will be offered, free of charge on the 23rd of November. It takes up 10 days after the shot to have maximum immunity. This means my kids wouldn't be fully protected until Dec. 2nd. My Son, 7 years old will require two shots if I understand the situation correctly.

There was a lot of warning that this was on the way. There IS NO EXCUSE for this current situation. I want answers. I want accountability and I'm not asking too much.

[gtwildfire]

Half-empty cup huh?

How about full syringes?

NOTHING, NADA has trickled down to Pennsylvania's school kids, but the spread of this thing is exponentiating now!

I can't see how this effort could possibly be described as "strong".

What a joke... but I'm not laughing.

[freewillybird]

This is a poorly reported story with a lack of perspective and pragmatism. It is trying to exaggerate problems. The "high risk" groups are quite different, and include one large group that is ALL PERSONS AGED 6 months through 24 years. When you include that group, the "high risk" groups are HALF THE ENTIRE US POPULATION.
Give me a break, you only need 60% of the population vaccinated to get herd immunity, then everyone is protected. Given that 32 million doses have already been made available to states, this means that ALL pregnant women, parents with newborns, and health care workers with direct patient exposure could probably be covered. Within the next month (BEFORE dec 1) the additional vaccine that will arrive will probably be able to cover most persons with severe chronic illness between ages 25 and 64 and EVERYONE between ages 6 months and 4 years. That is pretty good for a brand new virus.
I see no problem here, just a strong effort to produce and use vaccine. That the story is reported as a "problem" is not appropriate. Just trying to paint the cup as half empty.

[gtwildfire]

Every cell in my body can't help but scream "DUH!" at this headline. GlaxoSmithKline stands to gain 3 BILLION from H1N1 vaccine sales. Novartis stands to gain 1.2 BILLION in vaccine sales. Others are making millions as well AND FOR WHAT?

Worse yet, I seriously think that either the Press is ignoring people's collective outrage, probably at the Government's request and/or people are being way, way too complacent about this.

This whole thing is so suspicious it's not even funny, and I'm anything but a conspiracist, typically.

What I'm sure of is that I have 3 kids in the crosshairs of this thing. I have Emailed both my U.S. Senator, Arlen Specter as well as my Junior U.S. Senator Casey, I've Emailed the CDC, local health commissioner etc. even the mayor of my town.

The handling of this pandemic has been an abberation, an abject failure and aside from all the unnecessary infections and possible deaths... the Pharma Industry stands to encounter a boon is sales... for an effective yet now useless vaccine!

Why is everybody ignoring this?!?! Why aren't the villagers grabbing their torches and pitchforks?!?

WAKE UP PEOPLE!