Republican McDonnell Leading in Virginia

CBS News Estimates GOP Candidate Is Leading Governor's Race; Polls in N.J., N.Y. and Elsewhere Close Later Tonight

(CBS/ AP)  Updated at 7:00 p.m. ET.

As the polls close in Virginia, CBS News estimates based on early exit poll results that Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell is leading Democratic candidate Creigh Deeds.

The poll closing in Virginia is the first of several key votes tonight. Polls in New Jersey close at 8 p.m. ET and in New York close at 9 p.m. ET. Several mayors races and referendums are also up for a vote across the country.

Early results from exit polls from Virginia and New Jersey showed that a majority of voters in both states said they are worried about the direction of the nation’s economy over the next year. Eighty-five percent of Virginia voters said they are worried, as are 90 percent of voters in New Jersey. These percentages were similar on Election Day in 2008.

In both states the economy topped the list of issues that mattered most to voters in their choice for governor - in Virginia health care was second, while in New Jersey the second choice was property taxes.

In addition, early exit polls begin to show the impact of President Obama on the race. Majorities of voters in both states (55 percent in Virginia and 60 percent in New Jersey) said Mr. Obama was not a factor in their vote today. Those who said Mr. Obama was a factor in New Jersey divided as to whether their vote was a vote for the president (19 percent) or against him (20 percent). In Virginia, slightly fewer voters said their vote was for Mr. Obama (18 percent) than against him (24 percent). (Read more analysis of the exit polls from Jennifer De Pinto and Fred Backus)

But as Democrats faced the possibility of symbolic setbacks Tuesday, Obama aides downplayed the impact of the off-year votes.

Beyond the immediate outcome of the elections, results in those races and a handful of other contests nationwide will go under the microscope as the nation's political class looks for clues about the future direction of the country, chances that Obama's Democrats will retain power in the 2010 midterm vote or signs of a resurgence among wobbly Republicans.

"I don't think looking at the two gubernatorial races you can draw with any great insight what's going to happen a year from now," said Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs.

Traditionally, midterm voting works in favor of the party out of power as the president hits the midway point in his term and voters begin feeling dissatisfaction with their representation in Congress.

In the few races of consequence this year, late polls in New Jersey showed incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine in a too-close-to-predict race against Republican Chris Christie, a former prosecutor, despite a series of campaign appearances for Corzine by Obama.

"I think there, if Corzine does pull out a victory, it's not going to be so much because Barack Obama came there to campaign for him," says CBS News chief Washington correspondent Bob Schieffer. "It's going to be because he poured a lot of his enormous wealth into negative campaign ads against his opponent. If he wins, that will be the difference this time around."

Corruption in state government and highest-in-the-nation state taxes have dragged down Corzine, who also hasn't been helped by his past background as chairman and chief executive officer of Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs.

Republicans have not won statewide in New Jersey in a dozen years, and a victory would sting the president in a state he carried a year ago.

Democrats appear more certain to face disappointment in Virginia, where Obama won the presidential vote last year to become the first Democrat to do that since 1964. The incumbent governor, Tim Kaine, is also chairman of the Democratic National Committee, but was barred by a state term-limit law from seeking re-election.

Democrat Creigh Deeds trails Republican Bob McDonnell in polls by double digits. Obama also campaigned for Deeds, but as his support buckled, the White House began saying it had done all it could and pointing to polls that showed the Democrat's likely loss would not reflect on the president's popularity.

Long reliably Republican in national races, Virginia is a new swing state. Rapidly growing counties like Loudoun and Prince William swung toward Democrats in the 2005 governor's race, previewing an Obama win three years later.

"It's a great indicator of what's going on at the national level," Nick Ayers, executive director of the Republican Governors Association, said on CBSNews.com's Washington Unplugged. "And while I don't think it reflects directly on the president, I do think this says a lot about his agenda. It's an agenda that [Republican candidate] Bob McDonnell has campaigned against, and one that [Democratic rival] Creigh Deeds has found tough to dance around."

In other races, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg was expected to cruise to a third term. Atlanta, Houston, Boston, Detroit and Pittsburgh also were electing mayors.

Read more Election Day Coverage on Political Hotsheet:

Exit Polls in Va. and N.J.: The Obama (Non) Factor?
Washington Unplugged: Election Day a Referendum on Obama?
Off-Year Elections: Just Like Preseason Games
Schieffer: Hard Right Driving the GOP Train
Obama: The Year since his Election
N.J. Governor's Race Goes Down to the Wire
Battle Rages for N.Y. House Seat
Palin Jumps into N.Y., Va. Races
Va. Race, A Look at the Electorate

A special election in New York state's 23rd congressional district promised to be interesting. There potential 2012 Republican presidential aspirants the most conservative among them have been lining up behind a third-party candidate, Doug Hoffman, who is running under the banner of New York's Conservative Party.

His heavyweight Republican backing from the likes of Sarah Palin, last year's Republican vice presidential candidate; Republican Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty; and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, led Republican state Assemblywoman Dierdre Scozzafava to suspend her campaign abruptly and endorse her Democratic opponent, Bill Owens.

Until Scozzafava dropped out, the race pitted conservatives against the moderate wing of the Republican Party. Hoffman painted Scozzafava as too liberal, specifically noting her support of abortion rights and same-sex marriage. He told voters that she was not the kind of Republican they want representing their interests in a Democratic-led Congress.

The White House suggested those developments show that hard-liners are taking over the Republican Party, and the trend will affect the 2010 elections. On Monday, presidential spokesman Robert Gibbs predicted, "This is a model for what you'll see throughout the country."

Voters also will decide ballot measures in a number of states.

In Maine there is a referendum on gay marriage, whether to accept or reject a same-sex marriage law approved by legislators in May.

In Washington, voters will decide whether to keep a legislature-approved "everything but marriage" domestic partnerships law, which grants registered partners the same legal rights as married couples.

Ohio voters will decide on legalizing casino gambling.

[hungry1968-17]

What's funny is that McDonnell REFUSED to allow Palin to campaign for him or even endorse him, and he's winning by a 2-to-1 landslide.

Looks like another loss for conservatism.

[nojoy01]

It's easy to explain how important these & other "off year" elections are. If your guy wins, it means the values & goals of the candidate resonate with the voters and the person that lost represents a failing political ideaology. If your guy loses it means nothing because the election is a local one and thus is irrelevant to the national issues that your partys' values & goals are so attuned to.

[velma179]

Really.

If my team wins, it's because the othet team is lousy.

If the other team wins, they must have gotten lucky/cheated/what...? I didn't hear you...