CHICAGO, Oct. 27, 2009
Bleaker Job Picture Fuels Confidence Slide
Research Group Releases Second-Lowest Reading of Confidence Since May
-
(CBS/AP)
-
Interactive Eye On The Economy In-depth features on U.S. markets, taxes, employment and the Federal Reserve.
-
Blog EconWatch News and analysis on the economy from CBS News.
The Consumer Confidence Index, released by The Conference Board, sank unexpectedly to 47.7 in October - its second-lowest reading since May.
Forecasters predicted a higher reading of 53.1.
A reading above 90 means the economy is on solid footing. Above 100 signals strong growth.
The index has seesawed since reaching a historic low of 25.3 in February and climbed to 53.4 in September.
Economists watch consumer confidence because spending on goods and services by Americans accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity by federal measures. While the reading doesn't always predict short-term spending, it's a helpful barometer of spending levels over time, especially for expensive, big-ticket items.
Recent economic data, from housing to manufacturing, has offered mixed signals but some evidence that an economic recovery might be slow.
But on Tuesday, the figures showed that shoppers have a grim outlook for the future, The Conference Board said, expecting a worsening business climate, fewer jobs and lower salaries. That's particularly bad news for retailers who depend on the holiday shopping season for a hefty share of their annual revenue.
"Consumers also remain quite pessimistic about their future earnings, a sentiment that will likely constrain spending during the holidays," said Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board's Consumer Research Center.
Economists expect holiday sales to be at best flat from a year ago, which saw the biggest declines since at least 1967 when the Commerce Department started collecting the data.
The Consumer Confidence Index survey, which was sent to 5,000 households, had a cutoff date of Oct. 21.
The news came on the heels of rosier data about the nation's housing market.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index, which studies real estate transactions in 20 major cities, showed home prices rose in August, the third straight monthly increase and a sign that a housing recovery might be taking hold.
The measure showed the home price index climbed 1 percent from July to a seasonally adjusted reading of 144.5. While prices are down 11.4 percent from August a year ago, the annual declines have slowed since February.
Prices are at levels not seen since August 2003 and have fallen almost 30 percent from the peak in May 2006.
The latest index shows a widespread turnaround with prices rising month-over-month in 15 metro areas since June.
The Dow Jones industrials wavered on the dueling reports, but the index was up nearly 34 points to 9,902 in midmorning trading.
© MMIX The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Add a Comment See all 17 Comments
- A Great Recession is the perfect place for the gov't to add debt. Especially after the FED has dropped interest rates to zero. But, WHY can't the gov't add debt, today, to hire people until the private sector gets retooled for the next boom? Because GW Bush DOUBLED THE DEBT during a time of relative economic prosperity, thats why. Furthermore, the Bush tax cuts overwhelmingly enriched the wealthiest Americans. According to the Economist Magazine, 75% of the economic gains made by the Bush tax cuts went to the wealthiest 1% of Americans. As it turns out, they misinvested this tax windfall into housing and financial derivatives, i.e. GAMBLING. Now that we've been forced to honor their gambling debts (aka the banking bailout), we are being told that gov't spending must drop to pay the Reagan/Bush debt, and so unemployment will stay above 10% for years or decades. They gambled away their tax cuts, you bailed them out, and now you can't have a job. Someone has GOT to pay, and its you.
Folks, this is upward wealth redistribution of the worst sort. Cut taxes on the wealthy, who invest (gamble) in a bubble economy, and when it collapses bail out their bankers (who otherwise would have to default on their bonds). Then, get told that the gov't can't spend much on job creation, in the resultant Great Recession, because it is broke from tax cuts on the rich and has spent what little it HAD bailing the banks owned by the rich out of their gambling debts. THIS is what is meant by 'socialism for the rich only'. - Reply to this comment
- Will it take a 3rd political party to address the underlying cause of this mess? Democrats blame Republicans, and Republicans blame Democrats...Neither party is talking about changing foreign trade policy to bring BACK JOBS. WE HAVE TO HAVE A JOB TO SPEND MONEY YOU IDIOTS. We can't all work on wall street. Protectionism is NOT a dirty word! It is what built the industrial base of this country in the first place. Free trade has broken the back of the working man and simultaneously made the very rich.... very richer. Thanks a lot goofballs! Do something about it before the masses find their pitchforks and torches!
This mess has been brewing for a LONG time..its corporate greed chasing an ever higher profit margin... Yes republicans did their part but so di Democrats...seems like I remember Bill Clinton signing NAFTA into law not that the republicans were against it...Ross Perot warned us and we wrote him off as an idiot.... I want to hear something about REAL JOBS RETURNING TO THE USA how about that for an idea!!
FED-UP - Reply to this comment
- by sjc_1 October 27, 2009 2:09 PM EDT
Bush destroys the economy over more than 6 years
MORON. look around you everything made in China and this is Bush fault...I've lost my job because of the Greed CEO want to make 14% profit per quarter, what did he do , he move my division to China, is this Bush fault. - Reply to this comment
-
- Bush may not be responsible for outsourcing, but he did NOTHING about it either. People shop at WalMart because they save money. Many of the goods sold at WalMart are made in other countries, but they do not think about that, they save money and that is ALL that matters. Maybe you should talk to them about your job.
- by sjc_1 October 27, 2009 4:12 PM EDT
Bush may not be responsible for outsourcing, but he did NOTHING about it either. People shop at WalMart because they save money. Many of the goods sold at WalMart are made in other countries, but they do not think about that, they save money and that is ALL that matters. Maybe you should talk to them about your job.
_______________________
and saving money is a bad thing?
- Bush destroys the economy over more than 6 years and the wrong wing wants President Obama to make it all better in less than 6 months. This is ridiculous and anyone with a brain knows it will take years to fix the mess that Bush left.
- Reply to this comment
-
- Bush at least gave money back to the people to spend not to jobs that most people to not have the skill to do, like road work!
- While I'm hardly a fan of 'W', to lay all of this at his feet is ludicrous. The seeds of economic destruction preceded him. You should do more research before simplistic statements like "Bush destroys the economy..."
I would suggest that you view this video, and then reply to the message board.
http://video.pbs.org/video/1302794657/
- You can suggest anything you want to, but I am not obligated to do any of that. Maybe YOU should understand the online commenting concept. Make your point and back up your claims with facts. The fact is Bush was President when the worst economic collapse since the Depression hit....end of story.
- Ironic that sjc says back up your point with facts, and immediately follows with a statement that he backs up with the super-fact "end of story". Irony must not be one of his strengths.
- Bush added $5 trillion to the national debt, essentially doubling it. According to the Economist Magazine, 75% of the economic growth this created went to the wealthiest 1% of Americans. The economy and its finance sector collapsed. The finance sector, with its wealthiest 1% of Americans, were rescued via a bailout. The rest of us aren't so lucky, and unemployment will remain above 10% for years, perhaps decades.
So, I really do think Bush had alot to do with our economic situation and especially with the lack of financial options left with which to deal with it. He really f**ked America in several ways.
- but we've been stimulated
- Reply to this comment
