H1N1 Report May Foreshadow Grim Flu Season

(CBS/AP)  Rapidly worsening breathing problems in the sickest H1N1 flu patients in Mexico and Canada present a scary worst-case scenario and could foreshadow what U.S. doctors face as winter flu season sets in, new reports suggest.

In the global outbreak's first wave, many critically ill patients in both countries were obese, although their death rates weren't higher than others. Many in both countries also were younger than those typically hard hit by seasonal flu, as has been found in the United States.

Patients studied worsened quickly after being admitted to hospitals. Most survived after intensive, lengthy treatment, although the death rate in Mexican patients studied - 41 percent - was much higher.

The reports were published online Monday in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

They aren't a true snapshot on prevalence. But a JAMA editorial says they provide clues on what hospitals elsewhere may see in coming months.

CBSNews.com Special Report: H1N1

A report on U.S. cases published last week in the New England Journal of Medicine provided similar guidance. It found that one-quarter of Americans sick enough to be hospitalized with H1N1 flu (also known as swine flu) last spring needed intensive care and 7 percent died.

In the Mexican report on six hospitals between March and June, critical illness developed quickly in 58 of almost 900 patients with confirmed or suspected H1N1 flu patients - a rate of just under 7 percent. But 24 of these sickest patients died within two months, said the study led by Dr. Guillermo Dominguez-Cherit of the National Institute of Medical Sciences and Nutrition Salvador Zubiran in Mexico City.

The Canadian study, led by Dr. Anand Kumar of the Health Sciences Center and St. Boniface Hospital in Winnipeg, involved 168 critically ill patients treated at 38 hospitals between April and August. The 90-day death rate was 17 percent.

The JAMA editorial noted that while treatment including antibiotics, antiviral drugs and mechanical breathing machines has advanced since the deadly 1918-19 Spanish flu pandemic, many U.S. hospitals may lack adequate staffing levels to provide timely treatment if critical swine flu cases surge.

Deaths that result from inadequate planning "will be especially tragic," the editorial said.

Demand for H1N1 Vaccine Causes Shortages

[wyodutch]

Well, you cannot say the article was "ineffective journalism".
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The real threat to America is an economic one... Not the flu or some turbaned terrorist lurking under your bed.
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The defense department is crowing about how "We had the best recruiting year since 1973!". Of course, the government and the in-bedded media fail to mention that the unemployment rate for young Americans now exceeds 52%. My God people! Over half of our young adults are walking the streets because there are no jobs and we're cackling about the flu???!!!
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[alarchdu]

No reference to how many patients in total, especially compared with seasonal flu.Definitely scaremongering and poor journalism.

[mollydtt]

alarchdu--there are several other articles right here on cbsnews.com that give you the numbers. There is a delay in adding H1N1 statistics, because the tests need to be completed. (In order to avoid scaremongering). For example, where I live, there have been 3 more H1N1 deaths which are not included yet in the national figures. As of a week ago, the confirmed cases of H1N1 resulting in deaths was 76, but that is just what is officially reported, and not updated daily. As for seasonal flu figures---this is just the start of the seasonal flu season. I'm sure those figures will be available during the next few months.

[NancySwan]

After taking his first flu shot, my husband almost died from by Guillian Barre. It took him five weeks in the hospital just to stand on his own. If the flu shot was so safe, why do you think the government gave immunity from lawsuits to drug companies. I would hold anything suspect if no one can be held accountable. I wonder if the immunity extends to the yahoos who give drive by shots at local libraries and churches?

Anyway, the cost of my husband's bout with Guillain Barre almost, and may yet, bankrupt us. And the cost is still mounting since he has not fully recovered.

The chance of getting GBS was listed on the flu shot disclaimer, but we trusted our doctor. I wouldn't trust anyone for this kind of advice who will profit, including politicians and the media who get a large portion of their money from drug companies who will profit.

<http://www.examiner.com/x-21398-Birmingham-Autism--Parenting-Examiner~y2009m10d7-60-Minutes--proves-government-coverup-of-swine-flu-vaccines-link-to-neurological-disorders>

[NancySwan]

After taking his first flu shot, my husband almost died from by Guillian Barre. It took him five weeks in the hospital just to stand on his own. If the flu shot was so safe, why do you think the government gave immunity from lawsuits to drug companies. I would hold anything suspect if no one can be held accountable. I wonder if the immunity extends to the yahoos who give drive by shots at local libraries and churches?

Anyway, the cost of my husband's bout with Guillain Barre almost, and may yet, bankrupt us. And the cost is still mounting since he has not fully recovered.

The chance of getting GBS was listed on the flu shot disclaimer, but we trusted our doctor. I wouldn't trust anyone for this kind of advice who will profit, including politicians and the media who get a large portion of their money from drug companies who will profit.

[darklyon2]

This swine flu is a very odd virus and was more than likely a bioweapon created in a lab. It is described as a mixture of human, avian and swine viruses. Tellingly, there have been no reported A-H1N1 infections of pigs. The vaccines being tested on humans are admitted to possibly cause paralysis or even death But this should be no surprise to those who are aware of how the swine flue vaccine given to Americans in 1976 actually caused more deaths than the actual disease and left even more people paralyzed. They also used the same type of media scare to get people to take the vaccines in 1976 that they are now. Do not take these vaccines! If you have more questions about this and related media lies then join us at http://thcforum.ning.com/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASibLqwVbsk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_9I1L_P370
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kae2rej90A
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z64mrb-M7KE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ok6igM7-Swk

[skepticalJM]

As it passes through the population it should get less dangerous; more deaths in the first stages, now, is to be expected. My question is what is worse the flu or the cure? The last flu shot I got some twenty-five years ago made me sick as a dog for two weeks, in fact it was the worst illness since I was a kid. I never got another flu shot and never really got sick with the flu since then. I was traveling when the last great epidemic hit (avian flu, I think), so I got some antiviral meds, but I never got sick, so I never used them! The big thing is to keep the upper respiratory tract working well, so you don't get pneumonia. I found that the best way to do this is with aerobic exercise or running. I was always sick with sinus congestion which then would lead to bronchitis and then a bad cough. Since I started running the congestion doesn't happen; I think its because the cilia in the bronchi get stronger and keep the bronchioles open; there is consequently less chance of getting pneumonia from bronchioles clogged with mucous. Anyway I'll never get another flu shot if I can help it (of course this is for ME only, I'm not making a recommendation; just a personal opinion).

[RMGS]

This is from the National Institute Of Neurological Disorders and Stroke RE: Guillain-Barre Syndrome Fact Sheet USA.gov You can Google and read entire fact Sheet for yourself. Doctors and Nurses are "required" to take the H1N1 shot which first of all is not right. We should all make our own choices and not be forced. This shot has been tested on us but only for 6 months rather than the 3 to 5 years. No way to know if you will come down with Guillain-Barre and noone in the government or on any television has even mentioned this. Second Paragraph Occassionally surgery or vaccinations will trigger the syndrome. Guillain-Barre syndrome is a disorder in which the body's immune system attacks part of the peripheral nervous system. First sympt weakness or tingling sensations in the legs. In many instances the weakness and abnormal sensations spread to the arms and upper body. These symptoms can increase in intensity until certain muscles cannot be used at all and, when severe, the patient is almost totally paralyzed. In these cases the disorder is life threatening-potentially interfering with breathing and, at times, with blood pressure or heart rate - and is considered a medical emergency. Such patients are often put on a respirator to assist with breathing and is watch closely for problems such as abnormal heart beat, infections, blood clots, and high or low blood pressure. You decide, we should know all the facts before deciding however seems bias towards getting the shot. Anyone in the government or Medical Field like to comment regarding the odds on getting Guillain-Barre syndrome from the H1N1 shot that has been rushed and pushed on us without all the facts. We would like to know all the side effects but noone will tell us until maybe too late or maybe noone knows. We cannot afford to ignore the side effects without having more information. Anyone?

[skepticalJM]

As an aside, when I was a kid of 14 years, my doctor said I had herpes zoster (a virus that affects to nerves and is very painful). He told me that I could get a vaccine (dead virus), to cure it. I did and got a series of shots, one in each thigh, for five days. The upshot was I DIDN'T HAVE herpes zoster; he had misdiagnosed me; so I got the vaccine for nothing. When I was twenty-two, in college, I got herpes zoster -- IN MY LEFT THIGH! So much for DEAD VIRUSES in vaccines!

[mollydtt]

I haven't read the book by John M. Barry, but I remember reading years ago that the 1918 flu was remarkable in that it seemed to appear simultaneously in many parts of the globe. Not just in one place. And that it seemed to trigger such a heavy immune response from otherwise healthy individuals, that they succumbed fairly quickly from the side effects (lungs filling with water, etc.)Viruses always mutate, so it is a good assumption that this could either run its course, or turn into something more deadly.

[rational_1]

If Michael Moore comes down with this and gets really ill, which wouldn't be unexpected since he's a calorically-challenged blob, I hope he remembers to fly to Cuba to be treated by their vaunted healthcare system. Let's see if actions back up his (incessant) talk.

[RufusSideswipe]

Read the JAMA report - it has the numbers instead of the generalities. nice thing about the Web, you can link to stuff like that without trying to replicate it in the articles. As for the 1918 flu, I recommend John M. Barry's The Great Influenza - talks about the pretty much utter failure of public health officials - that is to say, political hacks - to recognize and act to try to slow the spread. Also discusses the likely lifecycle of the virus - the H1N1 is worrisome because it's fairly mild now, but also fairly new to people - as it adapts, it could become much more lethal.