Ugly Politics for Obama and Afghanistan

Marc Ambinder: White House Is Seeking to Assure President Will Have Public Support No Matter What Decision He Makes

(CBS)  The "On The Marc" column is written by The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder, CBS News' chief political consultant.

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The politics of Afghanistan look pretty ugly from the White House's perspective right now.

It appears as if Gen. Stanley McChrystal is putting the thumbscrews to the president, which makes Mr. Obama look weak. McChrystal got his fourth star from Mr. Obama. He's Mr. Obama's general. Mr. Obama picked him, without reservation, based on one meeting with the guy.

Mr. Obama doesn't react well to ultimatums, but the interagency process he is using to review the new policy doesn't foreclose on the possibility that McChrystal will get exactly what he wants.

For the whispering campaign, the White House blames conservatives close to McChrystal and colonels and flag officers in his inner circle who instinctively distrust Democrats and not McChrystal himself. But the intensity with which the commander's wishes have been conveyed has only strengthened the resolve of Mr. Obama's senior national security aides to hew to the schedule they set out.

During the president's short meeting with the general last Friday, he asked McChrystal a mix of questions about what, precisely, the 68,000 troops on the ground are already doing, as well as about his relationship with Hamid Karzai, about the role of Pakistan, the shifting alliances of the Taliban, the status and health of the Afghani people. He did not reproach McChrystal, according to White House officials.

The easiest way to understand the divide between McChrystal and the White House staff is to look at the way the debate has been framed: for McChrystal, Afghanistan will dodder into chaos unless 40,000 more troops are in place within 10 months. For the White House, defeating the al Qaeda ideology worldwide, with development, peacemaking and diplomacy -- delegitimizing it -- is just as important.

But the White House has hoisted itself up a tree here: it was the president who wrote the equation that McChrystal is now trying to fill in: Al Qaeda's safe haven in the tribal regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan is their single most dangerous strategic vantage point.

Where McChrystal and the White House agree is that the Taliban tribes -- religious, familiar, historical -- will ally with whomever they believe will serve their own interests the most. Right now, in the absence of a credible government in Kabul, or the presence of a nationwide Afghan military force, the links between the Taliban and al Qaeda are Yale-lock tight.

Afghan Chances Lost, U.S. Faces Long Odds
How the Taliban Rose from Afghan Turmoil
McChrystal: Cooperation Key in Afghanistan
Clinton: Taliban Much More Aggressive
Rebuilding Afghanistan, One Day at a Time

Perhaps -- perhaps -- winning over civilians is impossible. Afghanistan is not a country but a collection a tribes, a collection that "large military structures” that reek of U.S. imperial ambitions cannot possibly seek to ally with. (That formulation, incidentally, comes from Sen. Jim Webb.)

By this line of thinking, dedicating U.S. resources to a better and strategic counterterrorism policy -- one that is properly resourced and is combined with aggressive non-military endeavors -- will reduce the threat enough and will discredit the al Qaeda ideology enough. Those who hold this view -- Vice President Joe Biden and National Security Adviser James Jones -- are skeptical that even thousands more troops could effectively build an Afghan army that is capable of acting independently of the U.S.

The problem is, if there's one general who knows about the limitations of using a military counterterrorism strategy to defeat al Qaeda, it's the guy who was in charge of black ops for the past five years -- and that'd be Gen. Stanley McChrystal. And there a strong sense that the mobile counterterrorism concept has already been tried in Afghanistan, and failed.

A hybrid approach is being talked about, one that would reallocate resources to counterterrorism in some parts of the country and to building civil society in places where it seems civil society can be built.

Republicans want to use McChrystal's recommendation as a battering ram to make Democrats look weak, and to try and turn Mr. Obama into the guy who lost his will on Afghanistan. The GOP is spreading rumors that, if Mr. Obama doesn't give McChrystal exactly what he wants, McChrystal is going to resign; or David Petraeus is going to resign and will end up on the 2012 ticket. These preposterous and mischievous assertions really are driving the political conversation.

It is quite possible that, in the end, Mr. Obama will agree to send more troops. This review gives him some political cover. It allows him some time to reframe the strategy, which involves many different levers of American power, diplomacy with Pakistan and India, nation-building outside of Afghanistan, cooperation with Russia, China and Iran, intelligence, etc. It allows him to build a case for Democrats, who will be most disappointed if he agrees with a request that they now define as a GOP strategic imperative.

Coming up on the "CBS Evening News": Afghanistan: The Road Ahead, an in-depth examination of the escalating conflict, airing this week at 6:30 p.m. ET.

CBSNews.com Special Report: Afghanistan

As usual, his counselors are advising him to hover above the fray and to not allow himself to be pinned to the wall by his staff or his generals: let the White House staff duke it out with CentCom, but let Mr. Obama be seen as the guy who took his time, gave all voices their due, and made a decision in the end. The way Obama makes his decision will influence public opinion as much as the decision Mr. Obama makes. This, I think, is the political level on which the White House is operating.

Conventional wisdom holds that if Mr. Obama chooses to send more troops, Republicans will give him enough votes and Democrats will rip each other to shreds in an angry internal battle. If he chooses not to send more troops, Republicans will demagogue him and Democrats will rip each other to shreds in an angry internal battle.

The White House's political goal here - and they have one - is to give Mr. Obama the latitude to make a decision without having to worry too much about the short-term political considerations. They want to sort of force the public to follow the process - to perceive how careful Mr. Obama is being - to give Mr. Obama a little more room to decide.

[sdrrl]

I have no illusions as to why we are fighting this war. No matter what anyone says it's all about oil......but what I don't understand is how did our oil get all the way over there, half way across the world, and hidden under their sand no less.

Anyone who has any false illusions that this is a war being fought for freedom is indeed in need of intense and very long term therapy.

I do not care about George Bush (father or son). I do not care about Barack Obama. I do care about a young man, twenty-six years old, fighting over there in Afganistan. My nephew. His name is Josh.

He left for the military with visions of fighting for freedom and his country dancing in his head. He left against his grandfathers wishes and his mothers tears.

He laughed off the letters and articles about the truth of this war that his Aunt sent him in hopes of keeping him home safe and sound.

Now he is over there in a remote outpost. Surviving on one hot meal a day, sleeping on a cot, in a tent, in the middle of the desert. Dodging bullets and trying each day not to step on hidden IED's.

Twenty other men, the only company for days at a time, and probably feeling quite alone in that hostile land.

This is not his war. It's not mine or yours. It's a war being fought out of greed. It's a war fought by a government that looks at soldiers (our sons/daughters, husbands/wives, boy/girlfriends, nephews/neices, and grand-children) as nothing more than pawns in a chess game where there are no winners

[nearl451]

Problems for Afghanistan. A skewed election. No real economic basis for sustaining the country or govt as it stands.

Tax poppies. It's the only way. There has tobe a viable Afghanistan economy or there will continue to be fodder for unrest.

[starleo146]

by USA_is_back October 7, 2009 3:17 PM EDT
by endurorob_5 October 7, 2009 9:18 AM EDT


Bush is now gone. This is Obamas war now

Yep you are right and Obama was left with a mess just as he was left with a mess on the economy. Bush had 8 yrs to create this unholy mess,and you expect Obama to fix everything wrong in 9 months. There is so much wrong with this country, and most of it is in the United States Senate. They are so durn old and filled with hate and dementia,I doubt if we can ever get it straight till we boot the old geezers out.

[hungry1968-16]

by underdogus09 October 7, 2009 5:53 PM EDT
Israel Warns Russia "We'll Bring Whole World Down With Us"
Grim reports circulating in the Kremlin today are stating that during a
"shouting match" between President Medvedev and Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu ....stay tuned folks!
http://www.mail-archive.com/[e-mail]/msg00939.html







Oh how I hope that Israel and Russia go to war!!!

Nuke the S H I T out of them Putin!!!!

[edim39]

Falsehood!

[starleo146]

NONE OF US KNOW WHAT OBAMA's is going to do here, and thank God for that, because before we implement anything the pundints out in the atmoshere would tear it up, all I hear are hypotheticals of what Obama is doing, and they say no way, and the enemy would say ok lets counter this decision. I don't want to know to tell you the truth, we only need to know our National Security our Defense Team our Pentagon,our Secretary of Defense, our Secretary of State, our Vice President Our Congress our Military Generals have all put on the table what is what and Obama will tell them all what his decision will be. After 8 yrs of rushing to act on every thing that comes up no plan just pour the troops in pull them out of one theater and pour them int another. That is why Afghanistan is in such a mess right now, and now we have to fix it, how they do it may change in 6 months, but at least they will have a plan that will be implemented by the military generals because the Commander-In Chief came to a decision. We as American have our greatest fighting force in the Afghanistan area and we better back them . If the enemy hears one crack of nervousnous or wanting to run there Morale will climb and we can not have that. They think they defeated one super power (Russia) they think they can get us and if the Air force and Army, Marines,get in there implement and we can do it. I know the republicans will find fault, and some democrats will as well, but the American people have to teach them how to act in time of War, you shut up, and let the experts decide what to do,and we better support as one people.For the military out there with heavy back packs in the heat ducking IED's, Ambush's so pray we do it and pray for our troops. If we do not get the Taliban ,Alqueda will come back.

[underdogus09]

Israel Warns Russia "We'll Bring Whole World Down With Us"
Grim reports circulating in the Kremlin today are stating that during a
"shouting match" between President Medvedev and Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu ....stay tuned folks!
http://www.mail-archive.com/[e-mail]/msg00939.html

[Questionews]

All this blaming of Republicans for all of Obama's troubles is making Obama look really frigging weak. Dems run the entire show yet when something difficult comes along & shines the President in a bad light the only thing that Dems have to work with is:....Uhhhhhh... it's Bush's fault! (Remember the last election were Repubs were reduced to political spectators?)

Come on guys! I voted for Obama (as an Indy)knowing that he had some challenges ahead of him, but he sounded like he had it all figured out. I admit that Obama is performing well below my expectation, but I certainly don't run around with my pants around my ankles crying like a baby when difficult situations present themselves & the President ends up with a little egg on his face. Screaming "It's all the Republican's fault." sure makes Obama look like he doesn't have control of the situation.
Say a quarterback performs poorly for the first half of the season & gets benched. The back-up plays just as poorly for the second half of the season. Is it OK for the back-up QB to blame the starter for his own bad play??

[babooph]

The generals are desperate to not lose their little part of the mess Bush left for them -the White House has to deal with the TOTALITY of the mess they have taken on-the US middle class has to suffer their massive loss & pay for it all.....

[taryder]

Can we please get the EXISTING BUSH people OUT OF OUR GOVERNMENT.......Perhaps THEN our president could think less of being the BIGGEST WAR MACHINE on the planet. How RIDICULOUS.....NOBODY EVER!!!! WINS in Afghanistan.......In the WAR ON TERROR, for nine years we have killed THOUSANDS to make up for how many died on 9/11

Can we start taking care of our own Americans in this country.....We're talking 40++ MILLION of them living BELOW THE POVERTY LEVEL......There are more Americans DIEING from THIS than what other countries are doing to the United States......Look at our economy........We ARE the WAR OF TERROR within our OWN COUNTRY.....CHILDREN are KILLING each other on OUR STREETS.....and last but not least most of what little $$$ we have left either goes to banks, wall street and THE WAR ON TERROR!

[hungry1968-16]

by LambieKai October 7, 2009 4:13 PM EDT
No, we mean like Bush did when he sent in the surge...

Don't let facts get in the way of your propaganda, Hungry.






The surge failed.

If you look at the stats, the American body count SOARED when the surge started, and kept climbing every month until August.

In August, we started to PAY the terrorists $300 a month to NOT try and kill our troops, and THAT is when the tide turned.



And if you believe Bush listened to his generals, you're out of your mind. Him and Dumsfeld created and mismanaged the war strategy from Washington, and THAT is why it was such a disaster.

[darwinpike]

Can you believe this article. Basically talking about it a good and right thing for Obama to delay in responding to Gen McChrystal!!! Maybe I'm not following but didn't Obama give the job to the General with instruction as to what should be accomplished? Didn't the General state over a month ago that US deaths are to high because there is not enough troops to do the job Obama asked him to do. Didn't Obama ignore him until he went public last week saying he needed resources to do his assigned task.
I'm afraid that once the polictic goal has been set you turn it over the people who know who to fight, the General, and you give them whatever it is they need without hesitation and most importantly without politics!!!!!
And this article support Obama's politics in playing up the time so he can look like he knows what he's doing!!!! Doesn't this writer even read the other articles on this site, like the battle of Wanat and how that and recent battles like that illustrate how our young men are dying in these attacks because they are out numbered!!! Incredible, and criminal.

[USA_is_back]

by endurorob_5 October 7, 2009 9:18 AM EDT


Bush is now gone. This is Obamas war now.

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Correction - This is Obama's "CLEANUP" now. Bush cut and run !

[USA_is_back]

by endurorob_5 October 7, 2009 12:19 PM EDT

First off I am not a conservative

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You are SO correct. All the conservatives have left the Republican party and become Independents. Only you extremeists are still in the party.

[faceofus]

The white house is worrying about the politics of public support when the concern should be for the lives of our young American soldiers! That totally disgusts me! Obama is losing my vote!

[endurorob_5]

hungry1968-16 October 7, 2009 11:07 AM EDT
Incorrect: this is the problem with the conservatives.

Your politicians were untrusted with the majority of political power in the capital for 6 years, and your politicians were too concerned with creating record numbers of pork barrel projects, to worry about the ACTUAL problems that confronted America.



First off I am not a conservative and secondly Obama signed a democratic bill with over 9,000 pork barrel projects.

[zzacrat]

This isn't a Bush war any more! Obama said that he had the answers to this war, if Elected President, he would make the Change that is needed, that he him self knew what to do to turn this war around. The actions, orders and the way that this war is going is ALL OBAMA, not Bush. Bush has been in Texas for over 8 months, we didn't have this, getting our A$$ Kick like this a year ago, this is in the last few months that this is happening! Obama's week in Leadership to the World, there is Countrys out there that will Blow you up to just to go to Heaven, or so they think!

[zzacrat]

This isn't a Bush war any more! Obama said that he had the answers to this war, if Elected President, he would make the Change that is needed, that he him self knew what to do to turn this war around. The actions, orders and the way that this war is going is ALL OBAMA, not Bush. Bush has been in Texas for over 8 months, we didn't have this, getting our A$$ Kick like this a year ago, this is in the last few months that this is happening! Obama's week in Leadership to the World, there is Countrys out there that will Blow you up to just to go to Heaven, or so they think!

[rocketjl]

You can say whatever about the history of politics, but today is today and our guys are dying out there. Support them or pull them out. The political morons started in Vietnam. Now the folks carrying all those peace signs and spitting on our returning vets are in political positions and making the same kind of decisions they did then. Don't waffle or don't send our folks in battle in the first place, if you are not going to support them. How would Mr. and Mrs. Obama like to have the coffins of every dead service member led passed the White House front door????

[endurorob_5]

hungry1968-16 October 7, 2009 9:51 AM EDT


This is Obama's MESS now. He inherited it.

Bush started the war, abandoned it, ignored it, and dumped it on the next guy.

That's the conservatives strategy for EVERYTHING having to do with America: create a mess, dump it on the next guy, oppose the solutions to fix the problem, and complain about your opponent(s) when they come up with solution(s) of their own.

That goes for the wars, the economy, Guantanamo Bay, the collapse of the manufacturing sector, etc, etc, etc.



And therein lies the core problem with Obama and his supporters. "This is what I inhereted". Obama asked for this job. And quite honestly when he made the statement that he inhereted this he showed the poorest of leadership.

[hungry1968-16]

Incorrect: this is the problem with the conservatives.

Your politicians were untrusted with the majority of political power in the capital for 6 years, and your politicians were too concerned with creating record numbers of pork barrel projects, to worry about the ACTUAL problems that confronted America.

And rather than acknowledging that YOUR political philosophy - conservatism - is a dismal and bitter failure, you fault the democrats for trying to fix the problems that you and your kind created.

You and your kind shouldn't say a word while the problems that YOU created are being fixed, unless you're willing to help, which of course you're not.

[endurorob_5]

hungry1968-16 October 7, 2009 9:44 AM EDT


AGAIN -- it doesn't matter WHAT decision Obama makes. The conservatives will oppose him.

Their hatred of Obama, far outweighs their love of America or concern for the war OR the troops.



You are absolutely wrong. If he follows the generals advice the conservatives will support him on it. And you mistake opposition to bad policies for personal hatred. The personal hatred you talk of is what the liberals had for Bush and what the religious right had for Clinton.