Searching the Way Forward in Afghanistan

David Martin Looks at the Debate Over Effectiveness of Counterinsurgency and a Need for More U.S. Troops

(CBS)  Eight American deaths during fighting in Afghanistan reminds us yet again of the ongoing debate over just what course of action is best for the U.S. to pursue. After all this time, our forces are still searching for top al Qaeda and Taliban leaders, while the leadership in Washington continues to search for the right strategy. National security correspondent David Martin begins a series of special reports from CBS News:

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When asked in London Thursday why the situation in Afghanistan - after eight years of fighting with more than 850 Americans killed - isn't better, General Stanley McChrystal said not only is it not better, many things are worse.

"It's true that after eight years, after a lot of tremendous effort, a lot of expenditures, loss of good people, many indicators, many things are worse," said McChrystal, the American commander in Afghanistan.

According to McChrystal, violence is up - whether you measure it by the number of Taliban attacks, the number of American casualties, or the number of afghan citizens living in fear.

"It took us longer than I wish it had to recognize this as a serious insurgency," McChrystal said. "As the Taliban started to come back into effectiveness I think we lagged accepting that as a clear reality."

McChrystal's dire assessment that the war could be lost in the next 12 months if he doesn't get more troops sent the president and his top national security advisors back to the situation room - and to what American strategy should be.

CBSNews.com Special Report: Afghanistan
Coming up on the "CBS Evening News": Afghanistan: The Road Ahead, a 3-part, in-depth examination of the escalating conflict, airing Oct. 5-7, 6:30 ET.

Right now the strategy is counter-insurgency, which (as McChrystal explained to his troops) means, "We need to do much more than simply kill or capture militants."

It's a labor-intensive strategy - American troops going into villages to develop a working relationship with the elders.

According to Bruce Hoffman, a professor at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, counterinsurgency is much more ambitious than simply killing or capturing militants, a strategy known as counterterrorism.

"You try to reshape the environment, not just to eliminate terrorists but to cut off their ability to replenish their ranks," Hoffman said.

"Can you win with counterterrorism?" Martin asked.

"No. I think history shows that you can hold an opponent at bay, you can reduce their power, but you can't win a complete victory just relying on counterterrorism tactics," said Hoffman.

But does the U.S. have to defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan in order to defeat the real enemy, al Qaeda, which is based across the border in Pakistan - and which by all accounts (including that of the nation's top terrorism official) is taking a pounding from CIA drone strikes?

"Al Qaeda and its allies have suffered significant leadership losses of the last 18 months, interrupting training and plotting and potentially disrupting plots," said Mike Leiter, director of the National Counterterrorism Center.

If the goal is to defeat al Qaeda, maybe all we have to do, so the argument goes, is keep up the drone strikes and fight on in Afghanistan with what we've got there now.

It's a strategy which goes by the name "counterterrorism plus."

Fred Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute said, "'Counterterrorism plus' means failure to me."

Until recently Kagan was an advisor to McChrystal. A Taliban return to power in Afghanistan, he said, will allow al Qaeda to reestablish its safe havens there.

"You will have recreated in a new and different form the conditions that generated 9/11," Kagan said. "That's why we need to be there from the standpoint of fighting al Qaeda."

And Kagan thinks that will require 40,000 - 45,000 more troops.

"We're losing, and we need more forces to reverse momentum that the enemy has acquired, and so if you try to hold with the forces that we have now the situation will continue to deteriorate," he said.

McChrystal himself said last Thursday, "We need to reverse the current trend, and time does matter."

The eighth anniversary of the start of the war will come and go this week, but President Obama and his advisors have not yet figured out how hard Afghanistan is worth fighting for.

[ceruli]

Why is Fred Barnes still being interviewed. He and William Kristol, both of AEI conned this country in one the worst foreign policy disaster - the Iraqi war and occupation. Is there no one else that can be interviewed on the middle east except neocons?

[ceruli]

Oops, meant Fred Kagan. Although they are pretty much interchangeable.

[mysteriousjz]

A question: Who is in whose country, who is occupying and bombing whose territory?

[truth_police]

How ironic. Bush fought the "wrong" war and now Obama is refusing to fight the "right" war, the war that everyone has long known was the real war that needed to be fought to defeat the Talaban and al Qaeda. How did the U.S. ever become so profoundly ignorant and complacent? We haven't even learned the lessons of Vietnam, the lesson that everyone for all political persuasions DO AGREE on, namely, either get into the war "all the way" with a determination to win, or get the hell out IMMEDIATELY. In Vietnam and Afghanistan the U.S. would not do either. All agree it causes an unnecessary, pointless loss of life to half-heartedly maintain a middle position of neither fighting to win nor hastening to pull out. The U.S. absolutely must either send many more troops in an all-out effort or it must pull out immediately!

[ramos1129]

The eighth anniversary of the start of the war will come and go this week, but President Obama and his advisors have not yet figured out how hard Afghanistan is worth fighting for.

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People need to read the current issue of Newsweek. There is a very informative article in the issue which contains interviews from four Taliban fighters of different ranks in the Taliban. The reporter is a native from that region who has been covering the war from both sides since 2001. Several points were made:

1. The Taliban consider 9/11 a betrayal by AQ of their hospitality. The then Taliban government knew full well the military might of the USA and had no wish to incur it. The article made clear that should the Taliban ever regain power, AQ would be banned. The Taliban has no wish to endure another assault as it endured in 2001.
2, Each time there is collateral damage, the Taliban has no problem recruiting new members.
3. The Taliban is prepared to engage the NATO forces (mostly the US) for decades if need be. Because of our military superiority, they will not engage in full battles but rather will continue urgan guerrilla warfare.
4. They consider the Karzai government corrupt and a lacky of the Americans.

I have no way to vouch for the article but if true then what are we fighting for in Afgans?


2. If

[Ms_enza]

The way out is the way forward. Rhumb lines start from where you are.

I once walked into a bog in New Hampshire. After 45+ minutes of slogging about, I turned, and using the sinkholes of my our footprints, I slogged back out. Back in town, while hosing off my boots and pants at the service station, I was told that two years prior they found the body of a hiker stuck up to his waist in the same bog.

Should've asked on the way in...

[hermitdave]

Gosh does anyone remember after 9/11/01 reading or watching on TV anything about the citizens of Afghanistan begging the UN or Dick Cheney to please rescue them from evil doers? It is doubtful any Afghan citizen knew that the disaster in America on 9/11/01 would soon put them in peril. I am sure the survivors of the American bombing wonder how they could have been so unlucky. Many other countries had to be relieved that the CIA had no evidence that Osama Bin Laden was paying them a visit. Since this was the original sole reason for the Afghan slaughter, we could have thousands of dead SAUDI women and children since that is Osamas home country. Oh and where all the crack pilots of 9/11 came from. Or what if Osama was on vacation in DUBAI what a spectacular SHOCK & AWE that would have been as that new big towers fell to the ground.

Of course many countries felt safe when they heard about the impending Cheney attack, they had no huge heroin business nor any oil. Anyway the American crusaders are still slogging along, not sure why they are dying and loosing limbs. The new president of course is a politician. He obeys the strict code that never shall you look back and punish those who held the job before you, no mater how evil and corrupt.

With the economy in the toilet American are so upset they have no time to wonder who was responsible. Of course they refuse to believe it was them, starting with allowing the biggest election fraud in American history. True history will not be kind to the 8 years of Dick Cheney. Fake history will praise him as the greatest leader ever.

[P0STING_AWAY]

How many potential recruits does the enemy have?
How many of them are willing to sacrifice themselves for the "cause"?
How much money do they have access to?
What about weapons? Do they have a steady supply of weapons?
How about the terrain? Is this place ... similar to their backyard?
Is it their backyard?

Who are the "Afghan" people? Are the a homogeneous group of people?
Or, are they just a collection of tribes that just somewhat tolerate
each other?

Let's look at some history ... who else invaded this territory before us?
What kind of luck did they have?

I guess these questions should have been asked BEFORE we invaded the place. Learning (?) lessons the hard way ... IS -NOT- THE WAY TO GO.

[Ms_enza]

The right way, the wrong way and the military way.

[timdgrim]

Don't be too tough on him guys...that strategy worked on his video game!

[sjc_1]

And your solutions are?

[sjc_1]

I would get the Afghans to go after the Taliban while we go after al Qaeda. I would up the number of troops in this mission and get it done in 1 year.

[nextgenman09]

With such baseless proclamations, supported by no facts, figures or data, I'm surprised the DoD doesn't have you on retainer.

[underdogus09]

ahh another "Generalisimo" always ready to send someone else's sons and daughters off to fight and die....