Can The GOP Take Back The House?

Jim Geraghty: Yes But Only If Republican Candidates Do Their Job

(National Review Online)  Jim Geraghty writes the Campaign Spot for National Review.

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So how good could 2010 be for Republicans running for the House of Representatives?

A phenomenal year is now in the cards, which is obviously not the same as saying that it will be a phenomenal year. In any off-year, discussion of the following year's House races usually frames the battle for control of the chamber as a reflection of national mood. But even after elections that brought dramatic swings in the two parties' fortunes - 1994, 2006 - the ascending party wonders if it let winnable seats slip through its fingers. In the end, control of the House comes down to 435 unique races taking place in a national climate favoring one party or the other.

"Environment matters, but you have to have all your ships in the sea, with their sails up, and pointed in the right direction," says Brian Walsh, political director of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).

In other words, if you want to have victories driven by the national mood, you have to have good candidates; you can't have lazy campaigners or guys from the wrong part of their district, and your candidates have to talk about the right issues. One Capitol Hill Republican mused that the party hopes to have 60 good, competitive races next fall in districts currently held by Democrats, and to face the delightful dilemma of where to spend limited resources; another argued that the number really ought to be 80. This is not to say that either of these Republicans thinks the party will win that many seats, but they do believe that each of these is a potentially winnable race under the right circumstances.

It all starts with the candidates. "We have a goal for how many candidates we recruit each quarter, and each quarter we've blown past that goal," Walsh says.

As of now, Republicans are high on former congressman Steve Pearce's bid to regain his New Mexico seat, and on Ohio state senator Steve Stivers's rematch against Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy, whom he came within 2,312 votes of beating in 2008. Other strong prospects are Montgomery city councilwoman Martha Roby in Alabama's 2nd District, Assemblyman Van Tran in California's 47th, and former congressman Steve Chabot in Ohio's 1st.

One of the Republicans' favorites, based just on biography, is Adam Kinzinger in Illinois's 11th District. Two years ago, Kinzinger, a captain in the Air National Guard, had just left a Milwaukee nightclub with some friends. Suddenly he heard a woman screaming, "He cut my throat!" Her knife-wielding attacker lunged for her again, and Kinzinger managed to grab his wrist, wrestle him to the ground, and hold him while one of his friends called the police. Kinzinger was named Hero of the Year by the Milwaukee Red Cross. He has also been awarded the Valley Forge Cross for Heroism for his service in Iraq.

Sometimes luck is on your side. In most elections, even a grade-A candidate like two-term Honolulu city councilman Charles Djou would have a tough time in heavily Democratic Hawaii. But he'll be running against an unknown Democrat who is likely to be waging a tough primary campaign until September 18.

There is a logjam in Colorado's 4th District, where three strong Republicans have declared their interest in the seat: the popular and respected state representative Cory Gardner; Tom Lucero, a University of Colorado regent who led the fight against Ward Churchill; and Diggs Brown, a Green Beret major in the U.S. Army National Guard (Brown has not yet formally filed his candidacy because he's currently deployed with the U.S. Army Special Forces). The good news for Republicans is that unless the primary gets nasty, they'll have a strong candidate against the incumbent, Betsy Markey, who seemed strangely hesitant about town-hall meetings with constituents during the summer recess.

You can't help wishing one of those guys could run in a neighboring district - which is precisely what entrepreneur Steve Welch is doing in Pennsylvania. Welch had intended to run in the 7th District, where he lives. However, former Delaware County district attorney Pat Meehan announced his candidacy first. Instead of facing a contested primary, Welch decided to run in the 6th district, where he was born and where his business is based. A Republican source also noted that the expected Senate candidate, Pat Toomey, is so far polling well in all of the key House districts.

Colorado's Betsy Markey, who was elected for the first time last year, is representative of a phenomenon bedeviling quite a few Democrats these days. In 2006, Democratic challengers could run against the Abramoff scandal and the "culture of corruption." In 2008, they could be carried along by the tide of Obama enthusiasm, the exhaustion with President Bush, and the sudden onset of severe economic troubles. This year, these Democrats are the issue -and specifically, how they've responded to rising unemployment, a stimulus that doesn't seem to stimulate, a massive health-care overhaul full of ominous details, a cap-and-trade bill that won't sell in energy-producing districts, and a world that may or may not seem safer than it was when George W. Bush sat in the Oval Office.

A strong candidate at the top of the ticket rarely single-handedly determines the winner in a House race, but there are a couple of states where senatorial or gubernatorial races might affect turnout. There's Nevada, where Sen. Harry Reid will be running for reelection (with miserable approval ratings) and his son Rory Reid may be the Democratic nominee for governor. In the 3rd CD, incumbent Democrat Dina Titus is vulnerable, but a candidate the GOP was high on, bank executive John Guedry, unexpectedly dropped out last Saturday, citing an unspecified family issue. An odd wrinkle to watch in a district with one of the highest foreclosure rates in the nation: How many 2006 and 2008 voters still live where they did during those elections?

Then there's Florida, where the Senate race should feature either Gov. Charlie Crist or the up-and-coming former speaker of the state House, Marco Rubio, with either likely to trounce expected Democratic candidate Kendrick Meek, who has never run against a Republican. In the governor's race, Attorney General Bill McCollum is leading his Democratic rivals so far. Vulnerable House Democrats in Florida include Alan Grayson in the 8th CD, Adam Putnam in the 12th (where Republicans are high on his expected rival, Dennis Ross), and Suzanne Kosmas in the 24th; Allen Boyd, in the 2nd District, faced big, angry crowds at his town halls.

Ohio will keep its status as a key battleground, with big races for senator and governor (the GOP is likely to nominate Rob Portman and former congressman John Kasich, respectively). Republicans think they have a blue-chip candidate in the aforementioned former congressman Steve Chabot, who will take on the man who beat him by about 2 percentage points in 2008, Steve Driehaus. (Turnout in that district in 2008 was almost 70,000 higher than in the 2006 midterm.) In addition to Chabot, Republicans are excited about the chances in Ohio's 16th District because of Democrat John Boccieri's highly unpopular vote for cap-and-trade. He'll face either Matt Miller or Jim Renacci.

There's an inverse effect of this phenomenon in Maryland's most competitive House district, the 1st. Democrat Frank Kratovil won by the skin of his teeth in 2008 with Obama carrying the state by a wide margin. Next year, he'll take on the man who almost beat him, physician Andy Harris, while the ticket is topped by the reelection bid of Democratic governor Martin O'Malley, who lost this district's counties badly in 2008.

Next year, New Hampshire is likely to be an all-out battlefield. The Senate race will probably pit Democratic representative Paul Hodes against former state attorney general Kelly Ayotte (other potential GOP candidates include lawyer Ovide Lamontagne, publisher Sean Mahoney, and country-club owner Bill Binnie). The governor's race is not yet competitive. Republican Charlie Bass, who represented the 2nd District for six terms before losing to Hodes in 2006, is likely to run for his old seat, and Manchester mayor Frank Guinta looks strong against Democratic representative Carol Shea-Porter in the 1st District.

Then there is Virginia, where no fewer than four House districts are expected to be competitive. In this state, the gubernatorial election is being held this year, and neither Senate seat is up in 2010; therefore the House members are the top of the ticket, an ominous prospect for any Democrat who was carried into office by Obama's momentum in 2008. This year's gubernatorial race is likely to generate a great deal of useful voter turnout data - for both parties.

There are some other interesting races strewn around the map. Rep. Walt Minnick, of Idaho's 1st District, is attempting to vote carefully, but he will still be running as a Democrat in a heavily Republican district against Bronze star-decorated Iraq War veteran Vaughn Ward. In Tennessee's 8th District, Blue Dog John Tanner's consistent voting with Nancy Pelosi has brought farmer and gospel singer Steve Fincher into the race; Fincher has raked in $100,000 fairly quickly. Last year, Tanner ran unopposed, while McCain won his district by 13 percentage points. In Louisiana, a slew of Republicans and Democrats are running for the 3rd District seat being vacated by Democrat Charlie Melancon; he is running for the Senate, leaving an open seat in a heavily Republican region. In Mississippi's 1st District, state senator Alan Nunnelee has a strong base of support to challenge freshman Rep. Travis Childers. In Michigan, Tim Walberg is aiming to win back the seat he lost in 2008 by three-tenths of a percentage point, in a state the McCain campaign abandoned early.

An NRCC source mentioned that sometimes when the organization is recruiting a candidate, the aspirant will ask about what kind of support the party can offer. The answer is that allocation of party resources is usually a late-game decision; the GOP wants to put its money where and when it will make the most difference. The hope, strangely enough, is that come next fall, the NRCC will have too many competitive races to choose among.

[jambo223]

Grayson has it exactly right. And as for the Republicans and other conservatives: People in glass houses should not throw stones. Or maybe: You can give it but you can't take it. What a bunch of weenies. The repubs and conservs are really what what my football coach used to call CS. Grayson is right and hopefully this controversy will help intensify the spotlight on the need for reform. The GOP and other right wingers are really devoid of compassion and humanity.

[OregonJames]

I don't think they could possibly improve their position while leaving the current buffoons in charge of the party. The neo-con wackos have screwed up everything they have touched. They have become a group of radicals wth no goal whatsoever except to make the Obama presidency a failure, no matter how badly it hurts our country or its citizens. The republican party epitomizes the selfish, spoiled, self-centered elite that believe they are better than the rest of us. It shames me to know that I was once a member of their party.

[noloyalisti]

The GOP have become extremist neo con wackos. Are all of them against America or only the ones in Congress. They are against creating jobs here, only think of themselves and want to tell everyone else what to think and how to live. God help us if they EVER get back into power.

[psoupy]

Damn straight they can.

[democracy1]

You're delusional.

[pigsinlipstick]

THE GOP TURNED AMERICA IN TO A THIRD WORLD DEBTOR NATION,

IN FACT WE COULD SOLVE ALL OF OUR PROBLEMS TODAY, SIMPLY

BY REPEALING ALL THE TAX CUTS THESE FOOLS HAVE GIVEN TO

MILLIONAIRES

[skyk-2009]

After what we've seen in the last year, who in their right mind votes for people who want to put TRICKLE DOWN back in place?

[democracy1]

In a word: NO!

[BBDenver]

The Republicans are the party of "NO". No new ideas to help the economy, health, educations, ... just plain scare tactics. War war war, where else can we find some war. Let's get real and vote them out.

Proudly to say that "I Voted for Gore".

[proudmilvet]

BuddyBeanBags... Excellent Post!

[BuddyBeanbags]

The GOP are the living dead and they just don't know it yet. They've been seriously alienating the very people they've been trying to attract to their cause and gain votes, moderates and independents like me. I left the republican party after the fruit loop Christian wackos took over, about the same time as Newt's Contract on America and it's only gotten worse since. I used to despise Democrats but now find myself voting with them (as an independent) because they're crazy, but not drooling on themselves crazy like the Republicans. What happened to the Republican party? They used to be the adults in the room. Instead they bow down to that limp dicked, drug addict Rush Limbaugh and are oddly proud of it. And they wonder why well over 2/3's of Americans today think they've lost their minds and souls. I had hoped that the disaster they produced for themselves in 2008 would be their wake up call and result in a saner approach to expanding their base, but I was totally wrong. Instead, they're committing political suicide that will result in their continued marginalization for probably decades to come, if they survive at all. Big mouthed, ill-informed, hate and fear mongering ignoramuses do not make up the majority of the electorate... and playing to that kind of lowest common denominator will not likely produce the results they want, winning elections. I for one will certainly not vote for that kind of madness. Until the Republicans wrests control of their party back from the lunatic fringe, they will remain on the sidelines forever unless they pull their rumored coup, which will thin their ranks even more and reveal their party for all to see as the wild eyed, foaming at the mouth domestic terrorists a lot of us already see them as today. If they can't have power, they'll gladly destroy our country to get it back because they don't give a dam about America, only their party. As a small business owner, I'm being driven into bankruptcy by my health insurance costs... rising 20% per year, EVERY year for the past 5 years without fail. I can't pay that kind of money off the top and remain viable. I can't even pay my own bills on time anymore... the billing is out there, but they just can't pay. I listen to tales of woe every week from my clients and have very little patience for people 60 and 90 days late, because my own bills are being paid 30 days late as it is now, but their businesses are tanking, too. Fully 1/4 of my expenses as a business owner today are now employee health insurance costs... I can't do this anymore! My only option is to lay off all my employees and go back to the one man band (profitable) operation I started this company with. I'll sleep a lot better at night knowing I can pay my bills (except for remembering the desperate people I have to **** over by firing them). I hate Republicans today... they did this to our country, although those fingers in their ears, lying sacks of s**t will never admit their sins. Never trust a Republican, they're serial liars and will sell your soul as they have their own for your vote. Not likely.

[proudmilvet]

Why on earth would anyone vote Republicans back into power? They do not stand for anything! They oppose everything except tax breaks for the wealthy! The American people have finally had enough of their nonsense for the past 30 years. Maybe one day when they quit worshiping at the alter of St. Ronald of Reagan they will have better Luck. The way things stand now, the Republican Party is as Dead as Reagan!

[noloyalisti]

God help the earth if the Republican (aka neocon extremists) EVER get back into power.

[pigsinlipstick]

RIGHT ON!

[noloyalisti]

Could someone say why a sane American would continue to vote for these corporatists to take their homes, farms, jobs and money and turn them over to the big corporations.

I think it is because there are at least a third of Americans who utterly ignorant, whether because of lack of education or chosen denial.

[Beau_Tigh]

The column contains an error in the Florida section: Adam Putnam is not a Democrat (vulnerable or otherwise), he is is a Republican (former chairman of the GOP Conference), who is not seeking reelection to Congress, but instead is running for state Commissioner of Agriculture and Consumer Services.

[koko98-2009]

They will be something missing in 2010 which is why it won't be like 1994, enthusiasm. People forget what really geeked up the Republicans in '94 was the Crime Bill with the assault weapons ban. Make guns an issue and the Republicans come out of the woodwork, not only with votes but with cash and volunteers. If guns are not an issue the current Republican party is going to have a hard time matching a repeat of OBAMAMANIA.

[jollypants]

The "experts" have declared that the recession is over, but saying it's so doesn't make it so. My father had to shut down his business of 25 years back in June, and two of his peers have since gone out of business in August and September. I'm barely hanging onto my job. Why should I give my vote to the democrats? What have they done for me? Free health care is a poor substitute for a job. Fix the economy and I will buy my own insurance.

[democracy1]

Trickle-down ("voodoo" according to Bush Sr,) economics is to blame for our current mess, "Rogue capitalism where the fat cats can do as they please and to hades with the little guy. All brought to you by the Republicans since Ronald Reagan, deregulation, welfare for the wealthy, etc. Time for the "little guys" to realize that the party of NO no longer has their back (if it ever did).

[skyk-2009]

Duh?? Where would you fathers business be IF we'd elected Republican's and their Stay the Course mentality on the Economy. The nation was on the Brink of a total economic meltdown when the President took office and you expect all that to just go away? LOL

[thebob-bob]

Simple answer. No.

Republicans since the "Reagan Revolution" have imposed their radical right wing anti-government ideology and left America a bankrupt mess. Look at California we're it all started.

Only a third of voters even dare call themselves Republican and two thirds of them are gun-toting, bible-thumping delusional whackos. Republicans will spend thirty years in the political wilderness to atone for the damage they've done.

[pigsinlipstick]

WELL PUT, GREAT POST,

IF WE LEAVE IT TO THESE RIGHT WING EXTREMISTS,

THEY WILL TURN AMERICA INTO A FASCIST THIRD WORLD COUNTRY

[sjc_1]

Trickle down, rich get richer third world. 10% having all the money and the other 90% not having a chance at a decent life. The Southern Plantation rides again with the white masters at the helm.

[pubsrtoast]

The NRO is delusional, people know exactly who put the economy where it is (republicans) and who is trying to sabotage health care and market reforms

http://www.pollingreport.com/

[mikelpond]

exactly right, pubstoast!

[pigsinlipstick]

right on dude, ride that wave man!

GOD HELP US IF THE CONSERVATIVES TAKE OVER AGAIN,

LET'S ALL REMEMBER THAT THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS NOW

UNDER CONTROL OF RIGHT WING EXTREMISTS, LIKE FORMER 'KKK' MEMBERS.