Toyota: Price Tag Will Slow Electric Cars

Leader in Hybrid Cars Thinks Expense of Batteries will Keep Electric Cars from Penetrating Mass Market for Another Decade

(CNET)  This story was written by CNET's Martin LaMonica

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Electric vehicles are the clear favored technology for concept cars at the Frankfurt Motor Show this week. But Toyota, the leader in hybrid cars, thinks that the high cost of the lithium ion batteries will keep electric cars from penetrating the mass market for another decade.

Over the past three years, Toyota secretly tested lithium ion batteries as a potential replacement for the nickel metal hydride batteries now used in the Prius, according to a Bloomberg report.

In its tests, Toyota concluded that lithium ion batteries were safe and reliable, but the higher cost doesn't justify a complete shift over for Toyota's hybrids, executives said. As a result, the company will remain with nickel-based batteries for most of its hybrid cars, according to the report.

The lighter weight that lithium ion batteries offer over other battery types has led automakers to that technology for all-electric sedans such as the Nissan Leaf and the Chevy Volt extended-range electric vehicle.

Toyota, too, this week unveiled a plug-in Toyota Prius based on the 2010 model that uses a lithium ion battery. It expects to start leasing them to fleet operators early next year. But when it comes to the "mass market," the company still considers costs and range of battery-electric vehicles a barrier until 2020.

"Electric vehicles of today are less costly than in 1990s, but if you compare them with the other vehicles out there they are still too expensive," Executive Vice President Takeshi Uchiyamada said at a news conference at the Frankfurt show. "Unless there is a very big breakthrough in battery costs I don't think electric vehicles can take a large market share."

Among the many electric-vehicle concepts expected this week are four sedans from Renault, including the Fluence ZE which can work with Better Place's automated battery-switching stations.

[rf35]

I'm surprised to hear a Japanese company making these kinds of statements. It sounds more like the short-sighted American corporate mindset that can't seem to think beyond next quarter's profit report. The Japanese have always been the technical innovators in the automotive industry (among other industries). To hear this coming from them is fairly disheartening. By 2020, plug-in electric cars should be useless as the hydrogen infrastructure should be mature enough to handle demand and fuel cells will be supplying the electricity to run automobiles. I caveat that with "should" because there is always a chance the OPEC lobbyists and corporate stooges will find a way to delay the technology.

[ibzjem]

Oh the technology is being delayed every year due to this. We <i>had</i> electric cars before, but they were destroyed because of the threat to oil profiteers. We should have fuel cell cars now, but the infrastructure isn't there, why? Because it would be competition for oil. We should bullet trains, and other modern public transportation too by now.

[sjc_1]

If you want to see control, consider that out of 200,000 gasoline stations nation wide about 1000 have E85. There are more than 5 million E85 capable vehicles out there, but very few pumps and most of those are in the mid west. Stations are either owned by the oil companies or are under strong franchise agreements. Since oil companies do not make ethanol, they are less likely to allow it in their stations.

[tmittelstaed]

Now you see Toyota lying like dogs to keep their market share going.

The Prius has BOTH an engine AND a battery. So, $5K for the engine, and $5K for the battery - well no wonder the stupid car is so expensive. Toyota is not interested in supplying an all-electric car right now so they are spreading FUD - but I'll bet money they are secretly working on their own product and in a few years they will suddenly announce it - and pronouncements like this 2020 nonsense will be swept under the rug. People have demanded a plug-in Prius for years and Toyota has ignored them.

Toyota also wants to maintain a lock on their batteries. You cannot buy a replacement Prius battery from anywhere but Toyota - after they have applied an obscene markup to it. They could license their batteries to the aftermarket - but they don't.

That 2020 time period is there because in 2020 the Toyota patents on their batteries run out and then everyone can make them - and competition will cause the price to collapse. Then this "electric cars are too expensive" dog won't hunt anymore. But, Toyota could do the same thing that IBM did with the PC back when IBM released it - that would end up causing the electric car market to explode right now, not a decade from now - and save the world billions of barrels of oil. But, Toyota would rather value short term profits and maintain a lock on a niche market than compete on a level playing field in a much larger market. Not surprising, since their cars stink.

[quickly101]

I am sick of hearing about electric cars, and the costs of their batteries. If we were to suddenly to run out of oil, theres would be a long lasting battery on the market it months. Its big oil, no other technology will be mass produced until all the oil is gone and the planet is void of oxygen.

[stephand]

About 50% of the known lithium reserves are in Bolivia. We are just trading one unstable source (oil from the Middle East and Africa) for another (Lithium from Bolivia). There is no silver bullet here and it is not a big conspiracy.

[sjc_1]

We could use large format NiMH batteries for plug hybrids, but Chevron controls the patents and will not allow anyone to make anything much larger than a D cell. They control Cobasys, which is just an incompetent front to make it look like they are selling larger batteries that only they make. They delivered defective packs to GM and failed to make progress on a model for Mercedes.

[jackp32]

Just stay out of my way in one of those whimpy cars. My Tundra needs room to breathe.

[incog-nito]

The real solution: Go out and buy a decent compact car similar in size to the Prius for about $12-16K (vs. $25+K for the Prius) that can get 30 mpg, and save yourself a bundle of cash. If people were to do this it would have a real impact on oil dependency, the environment, etc. Instead, people prefer to talk about "exciting" new technologies that are neither affordable nor realistic.

[jeannettelj]

Toyota says that the cost of the batteries will keep people from buying their electric cars. Why can't they just say what the cost is, instead of keeping it a big secret? Are we going to have more money in 2020 that we have now so that we can afford their cars? I don't understand why these car companies can't figure out a way to make cars that get excellent gas milage, protect the environment, and produce them at a price that an average consumer can afford. Not all of us have $50,000 to $60,000 to purchase a car and the sooner they figure that out, the better off all of us will be.

[rightbehind]

Not if they get busy. Could be people will find out that they could power their homes from the hybrid vehicles as well and do away with the power companies.

[vuenbelvue]

Almost all "Green" replacement technolgy cost more. Most wouldn't have a monetary payback for half a century or more. Are we willing to pay? The Chinese have millions of solar water heaters on rooftops that cost an average of $250.00. Here the price would average $4,500 or higher.

[lmartink]

You overlook the other horrifying economic aspects. This country spends over $700 billion dollars annually for foreign oil. $25.2 billion dollars in August alone.

This is money that goes into circulation in Venezuala, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. It goes out of circulation here, into circulatio over there, and in our weakened economy -- again -- we can't afford it.

Even if we opened up ANWR and the OCS areas to rampant oil drilling, it would still be less than 5% of the oil we use everyday. Plus, Saudi Arabian oil is easily accessible, and it's cheap. All those lies and garbage on TV from the oil companies' advertising is going to be very expensive at the pump.

The cheap energy party in the U.S. is over. It's 2:00 AM, the bar lights are coming on -- and in the morning we better wakeup to a new energy economy or the country will be economically ruined from it's wasteful binging on foreign oil.

We desperately need to embrace about every new technology to get us away from our terrible addiction to oil.