Glimmers of Hope amid Economic Gloom

(CBS)  For the 20th straight month, the U.S. economy lost jobs in August, but the pace of those losses continues to slow, reports CBS News correspondent Anthony Mason.

"The job market is on the mend," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "It's gonna be a long painful recovery. But we're headed in the right direction."

After the credit crisis erupted last September, monthly job losses quickly deepened - hitting a low of more than 700,000 in January. They've now returned to levels before the panic.

And the government says a third of the industries in the country are hiring.

One California furniture maker laid off all seven of its employees at the bottom of the recession.

"We had to drop our staff down to just me," owner Cliff Spencer said.

Spencer was left alone to do the carpentry, while his wife, Leigh, took over the bookkeeping. But business is beginning to turn around.

"'07 and '08 were not profitable years," Leigh Spencer said. "And it looks like this year will be profitable."

So the Spencers have brought back two of their workers.

"There's work going on. Contractors are getting busier again. It's lifting," Cliff Spencer said.

But the job market differs sharply depending where you live.

In Washington, D.C., where the government is hiring, for every unemployed worker there's one job posting. But in Houston that ratio jumps to 4 to 1; in Los Angeles it's 8 to 1; in Detroit, the worst hit city in the country, there are 18 people looking for work for every job listing.

"I've applied for hundreds of jobs literally and had three interviews since December," said Jonathan Kolbe, who was laid off from his job as an architectural projects manager in Florida eight months ago.

He now sends out resumes with a Dunkin Donuts gift card for prospective employers and is offering a small video camera to anyone who helps him land him a job.

"Yes, it is cheesy. And it is gimmicky, but it gets people's attention," he says.

Whatever it takes. Jonathan is one of 5 million Americans who've now been out of work six months or more. That's about one third of those who are unemployed.

[frankstarnes07]

Yes with a medical billing degree you can work from anywhere http://******/ESUNX

[bradkt1]

One-third of all industries are now hiring...that's good and the trend will continue to rise.

Most of the stimulus money (the major construction part) is still in the pipeline. It is probably out of the design stage and is now in the approval/procurement stage...so that will be good news later this year and early next year.

Consumer retail spending is rising...but still has a long way to go. This will be a big key in the future. As demand rises, there will be more hiring. A big key here will be the Christmas season. That is the time of year when many retailers and manufacturers make their profits. We should know if the economic turnaround is real by then.

If people think that the economic turnaround is real by Christmas, stock prices will make a major rally as investor confidence rises. That will be another key sign about the state of the economy.

Home real estate prices are slowly rising again...but that only helps people who are selling homes so they can move into larger ones. People who are staying in their homes with no intent to sell are not affected by this. It's a decent market for new home buyers who can get the credit. The lack of availability of credit seems to have eased and that's good. Still...people need to be working to buy homes and the prices are still such that both spouses need to be working.

Heavy manufactured goods (appliances, cars, etc.) are still flat. When people have jobs, both individual and businesses consumers will buy. This will be another key sign about the economy and we should know the story here by the end of first quarter of next year.

Recreational spending is still way down...and will continue to be until the economy gets stronger as people get more confident about their economic future...both in terms of not losing their jobs and in terms of getting jobs. I think that this sector will be a lot better a year from now. There are a lot of jobs in this sector.

Commercial real estate values are still way down...this will be one of the last factors to turn around. Companies don't make major real estate decisions when the economy is still uncertain.

Summary: The economy is still a mixed picture, but the underlying trends are getting better...slowly. The timing of this economic recovery (if it continues on this pace) is such Democrats may be in good shape for the 2010 election cycle...possibly in very good shape.

[melchg07]

I agree. I'd also like to point out 1 other important factor. Savings.

Americans are saving at a larger rate than any other in over a decade...which also means they are also paying off large chunks of bills that they can....a big one.....probably credit cards. Both combined will put people in much better positions to unload some excess funds next year and possible like you had stated...during the x-mas season. If the retail market has a good x-mas season you can expect the 2010 year to do better than what most economists are predicting for both GDP and jobs growth......I remain confident that 2010 will exceed most peoples expectations.

If the Dems can get some decent legislation passed that will reform key aspects of health care.....I think they will be in a good position to hold on to a very strong majority in both houses. (I suspect they will.)

[doc_holliday76]

by rplat:
"You need to take your communist philosophies....."
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Not much different than your foxnewsus propagandus fascist ideas, supporting the American corporatocracy of, by and for the wealthiest and corporate elite!

[doc_holliday76]

by rplat:
"This economy is at best stagnant and continuing to deteriorate."
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And your PROOF of that is.................?

Sounds like foxnewsus propagandus, in order to appease the Kool-aid guzzlers so intent on America to fail like their RNC leader rushbo tells them to 'think.'

Seems as if even the markets -- a leading indicator of any recovery -- have rallied for quite substantial gains since Jan. 20th, after a 26% LOSS during the 8 miserable years of bushworld!

[doc_holliday76]

by curse914:

"The feudal corporate mindset of the Gilded Age only benefits those few at the very top; it is anti-democratic and unAmerican."
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Yep....and then we have the morons that carry water for the ultra-wealthy and corporate elite, that continue to allow them to squeeze middle class Americans more and more each year.

[doc_holliday76]

by fstop100:

"Hey we are losing less jobs!"
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Exactly! We are losing a lot less jobs, since unemployment has been rising for the past 20 months, and Obama has only been president for 7 months of the bush/cheney Great Recession!

I'm sure the foxnewsus propagandus network is spinning this hot and heavy just as negative as possible, since those talking heads are just like rushbo in wanting America to fail.

[rplat]

"by kevjustice September 5, 2009 11:34 AM EDT
Rush,Hannity,Beck,etc. are corporate america's multi-millionaire goons hired to promote corporate america's propaganda that we are all better off with 1% of the population controlling 40% of its wealth."

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

If the 1% earned that wealth through hard work and individual initiative then you bet your backside they deserve it. You need to take your communist philosophies to Kos where they will be appreciated.

[rplat]

Had the Democrats and left wing media been around during the extinction of the dinosaurs at the end of the Mesozoic era some 65 million years ago, they would have thought it good news that there were not twice as many asteroids. This economy is at best stagnant and continuing to deteriorate. Insisting that the latest jobless figures are encouraging news is blatantly ridiculous and deceitful.

[doc_holliday76]

by SouthernForever:
"...and not a job created in the private sector?"

"You've got to be joking about that good news, right Beckie, you are joking, right?"
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Nah....it seems as if the southern, white, evangelical party of 'NO,' is the ones that just keep praying for more "gloom and doom" negativity, and have a severe case of reading comprehension. This doesn't surprise me in the least, knowing exactly how poor the educational system is in the southern welfare states that the federal government must support.

Since we've seen unemployment rise for the past 20 months -- 13 of those months under the busheviks that caused the bush/cheney Great Recession -- and now showing signs of slowing along with other signs of recovery, all you morons want to do is rant and rave with great negativity and pessimism.

BTW, the article above states that a full one-third of industries are hiring now, and you delusionally state "...and not a job created in the private sector." Ignorance is bliss, especially in the deep RED southern states that surely are clueless and seethe hatred and anger!

[doc_holliday76]

by bestk:
"RUSH WAS RIGHT ONCE AGAIN"
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Absolutely! Ol' druggie, BIG MOUTH rush limbaw and you are both FAR RIGHT -- something America no longer needs, since the busheviks and the GOP-led congresscritters took America down the conservitard path of destruction, giving us the bush/cheney Great Recession.

Just like in the above article, we have been losing jobs for 20 months now, and Obama has only been president for 7 of those -- so with unemployment finally slowing and a full one-third of industries are hiring now, stop your delusional republican't "doom and gloom" rhetoric, and stop being America's problem of constant pessimism!