Hurricane Jimena Bears Down on Baja

(AP)  Updated at 9:25 p.m. EDT

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Jimena roared toward Mexico's resort-studded Baja California Peninsula on Monday, prompting emergency workers to set up makeshift shelters and chasing away an international finance conference.

Jimena is just short of Category 5 status - the top danger rating for a hurricane - and could rake the harsh desert region fringed with picturesque beaches and fishing villages as a major storm by Tuesday evening, forecasters said. Heavy bands of intermittent rain moved across the resort town of Los Cabos on Monday evening.

Workers at the Cabo San Lucas marina nailed sheets of plywood on storefront windows while fishermen secured their boats ahead of Jimena, which was packing winds near 155 mph. Hotels and restaurants gathered up umbrellas, tables, chairs, and anything else that might be blown away.

At least 10,000 families were ordered to evacuate their homes in low-lying areas and shantytowns, said Apolinar Ledezma, the municipal public safety director.

The government said it would send out 200 military personnel and dozens of police in trucks to help people reach dozens of shelters. Authorities warned that those who refuse to evacuate would be forced to do so.

"We are going to start by inviting people to leave ... the moment will come when we will have to make it obligatory," said Garibaldo Romero, interior secretary for the municipal government.

After official hurricane warnings were broadcast, organizers of an international financial meeting scheduled for Cabo San Lucas this week decided to move their conference - including more than 170 representatives from 54 countries - to Mexico City.

"The meeting has been planned for two months and the meteorological conditions, by their very nature, are unpredictable," said Anthony Gooch, spokesman for the Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information, sponsored by the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Brenda Munoz, who lost her home to a 2001 hurricane, was taking no chances.

"I remember when Hurricane Juliette hit with a lot of intensity. It flattened our home," Munoz said in the vacation town of Cabo San Lucas. This time, she said, "We're already prepared with food and everything so it won't catch us off guard."

As rain started falling Monday morning, Mitch Williams of Orange County, California, waited at the airport to fly home from his vacation.

"The hurricane can do a lot of damage if it hits at that strength," he said.

Williams said poorer residents who live in shacks are not well prepared. "It will wipe them out," he said. His advice for tourists was simple: "Get out."

But on Cabos' famous beaches, some tourists were doing just the opposite, jumping into the Pacific to play in the hurricane's big waves.

The local hotel association estimated that 7,000 tourists were left in Los Cabos. Hotels had a 25 per cent occupancy rate, according to the association.

Although city officials shut down the port, lifeguard Roman Dominguez with the Cabo San Lucas Fire Department said there's no feasible way to close a beach.

"We struggle a lot with surfers," he said. "They're looking for waves."

Lifeguards perched in a tower looked on Monday as two women, one with her boogie board, another on a surf board, paddled into pounding surf under cloudy skies.

Clay Hurst, 52, a fencing contractor from Malibu, California, and Ben Saltzman, 28, an emergency medical technician from Pacific Palisades, California, emerged from a swim in the 10-to-12-foot (3-to-4-meter) waves and pounding surf.

"We are waiting anxiously, wanting to be right in the middle of it," said Hurst, who said he has never seen a hurricane as powerful as Jimena.

"We were advised to leave, but we want to be here," he said. "I've always wanted to be in one ... a real bad one."

Saltzman echoed his friend's enthusiasm: "It's an adrenaline rush," he said.

But Cabos San Lucas fishing boat captain Eleazar Unzon, a 30-year veteran of these waters, was more cautious.

"This is causing a lot of fear and concern," said Unzon, 58, as he and helpers pulled the 33-foot fishing boat "Alejandra" onto a trailer. "We're getting the boat out of the water before it hits, so we can rest easy at home."

Unzon acknowledged that big storms do have some benefits - he notes that they bring in the "big fish" coveted by sports fishermen such as marlin - but said, "I'm not going to expose my livelihood."

Tim Donnelly, 57, a boat captain originally from Washington, D.C., sat dockside after tying down the 105-foot, two-masted wooden schooner "Sunderland," saying he expected the 140-year-old wooden boat to ride out the storm.

"We've never been hit by a storm of this category," he said. "I'll be shocked if we don't have any problems."

Farther south, Jimena kicked up surf along Mexico's mainland western coast and generated strong winds that bent and uprooted trees in the resort town of Zihuatanejo. Authorities in other mainland towns were setting up shelters as a preventive measure.

On Monday evening, Jimena was a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds near 155 mph and was moving northwest near 10 mph (17 kph), the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami reported. It was centred about 285 miles south of Cabo San Lucas.

Hurricanes reach Category 5 at 156 mph.

Farther out in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Kevin weakened to a tropical depression with top winds of 35 mph. It was centred 845 miles west-southwest of the Baja peninsula's southern tip.

[lloydbest1]

From the NHC at 2000 PDT"

Well, the little brat's gone and done it. Jimena has reached Cat 5 status and I didn't think she would. Sustained winds are 155 making her the weakest "five" a hurricane can be but that's still pretty rough stuff. Central pressure is now at 27.49 inches, roughly .15 lower than the last update nine hours ago.
Satellite images and IR still show a smallish, tight, very well organized storm with good outflow and no wind shear. Towards the end of the loops, the eye began to show some very faint sloppiness indicative of a possible weakening. But don't expect it to drop much below mid Cat 4 overnight. We're still talking about a muscular brute who will remain a very robust storm - probably right up to landfall.
She's gotten a little bigger since 1100 as well. Hurricane force winds now extend to 45 miles out from the eye and tropical force winds out to around 140 miles. Socorro Island, roughly 110 miles from the center was buffeted by tropical force gales for several hours up to 8 PM Pacific Time. The weather station there is at a naval base on the side facing away from the storm and protected by a 3000 foot peak so I can imagine winds on the other side are stronger yet.
As of now Jimena is about 240 miles directly south of Cabo San Lucas and 400 miles south-southeast of Puerto San Carlos. She's moving north-northwest at around nine mph. According to the latest storm track projection, Jimena still has Puerto San Carlos in her sights. No one is yet willing to give an estimated time of landfall but if she picks up speed as she's expected to do and averages 12 mph for the next 36 hours, she should strike land at, or a few miles from, PSC sometime between 4 and 7 AM Wednesday morning.
Cabo's going to get hit much sooner. The worst of the winds won't be here but the resort area can still expect 50 to 60 mile gales, a WHOLE lot of rain and oodles of beach erosion to write home about. Even La Paz is not entirely out of danger even though it's on the east side of the peninsula and semi protected by a low range of hills. Folks living and vacationing there would be well advised to heed any evacuation orders from the Mexican government...
After doing her number on the southern tip, Jimena is expected to hook east. Now the track is expected to cut diagonally across the central part of the Baja peninsula and enter the Sea of Cortez near...well, not near anywhere in particular but almost directly across the water from Guymas on Sonora's west coast. Oh, by the way, Guymas and areas along the coast can expect to get very wet. Windy, too.
Eventually Jimena will enter the U.S. as a much weakened remnant. At this point, it looks like Organ Pipe National Monument in Arizona will be the entry point but it's really too early to tell.

[Solarrays247]

I hope everyone listens, and evacuates ahead of this storm!

I was living in South Florida, Boca Raton(to be exact), when Hurricane Andrew(a Catagory 5) hit in August 1992. We received mandatory evacuation orders. Even though I was safe in an evacuation shelter, with the Red Cross right there with us....when Andrew hit.....I'll never forget the sound of the powerful winds that blew throughout that night! Just reading this article brought a flashback....and the sound of those winds! Incredible! Hope everyone stays safe....property can be replaced...material goods can always be replaced.

Stay safe.

[Aldymac]

It would be nice if some rain would make it up to put the fires in Ca. out, I'm a thousand miles away and the smoke has our visibility down to five to six miles. We have a ten thousand foot mountain behind us and it is invisible.

[wyodutch]

I love that pancake mix.

[Ace22257]

Why do people insist on trying to defeat the odds? Is it any wonder so many people are killed in these big storms when they dont heed the posted warnings to evacuate? Ratherthan having a picnic on the beach i'd be getting ready to get the hell out of there!!!

[lloydbest1]

The 1100 update from the NHC:

Jimena has intensified slightly and sustained wind sppeds are in the neighborhood of 150 mph. 4km satellite imagery shows a bit of high pressure eastward about at 20N and 100W that is giving Jimena's counterclockwise circulation a boost.
Both 2k and infrared imagery reveal a well developed eye and an almost complete absense of wind shear. The nearest hint of shearing winds is several hundred miles to the south. Outflow in all four quadrants looks very good for sustaining present intensity. Central pressure as of 1100 PDT is 27.64, a drop of .11 inches since 0500.
Projected track still has our bad girl crashing ashore on Baja's southwestern coast but the projections have her shifted slightly west. Now the town on point is Puerto San Carlos, a village of about 5000, 30 or so miles west of Consitucion. PSC is somewhat protected from the worst of Jimena's winds and waves by barrier type islands but since there is little that's more than 10 or so feet above sea level, storm surge alone will flood out most of the town.
If, and this is a big if, Jimena continues to shag westward from its original projected track there is a fair likelihood that she will suck in some (relatively) nearby dry air hanging around at 25N and 130W. If that happens you can kiss Cat 5 goodbye, but she will still be a formadible threat to the entire coastline and rainfall amounts will still be at levels most of the territory normally wouldn't see in a full year.

by leeanna59 August 31, 2009 3:49 PM EDT
Jimena is headed that way but I'm afraid by the time the mountains running down Baja's spine are done with her all she'll bring to the L.A. basin is thunder and lightning and I don't think anyone wants that now.

[leeanna59]

I hope the water moves north and northeast and puts out the forest fires in California and Utah.

[TheMasses2002]

Baha-humbug!

[lloydbest1]

From the Naional Hurricane Center 0500 PDT:

Jimena is roughly 360 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas and chugging northwestward at about 8 MPH. She's moving pretty leisurely now but is expected to hang a shallow right turn and speed up during the course of the day. As cool as the waters are in this region (about 75 degrees as opposed to the 85 - 88 we see in the Caribbean Basin this time of year) Cat 4 is about all she'll get. Still, with a central pressure of 27.75 and winds edging toward the 150 mile mark, we're not talking kite flying weather either.
She's a wet one, too. Rainfall amounts are expected to be torrential when she finally hits Baja sometime late Tuesday evening. Hurricane force winds run to about 30 miles from the eye making this one a comparatively small storm. No joy there, however; Andrew wasn't any bigger.
Where will she hit? The latest projected storm track has her slamming ashore about 125 air miles north-northwest of Cabo San Lucas; nearest town of any size is Constitucion with a population of some 45000. A satellite view of the region reveals an extremely arid region that is festooned with dry washes. The Sierra de la Giganta rises immediately to the east and though not nearly as impressive as the name implies, they are plenty big enough to catch a lot of the moisture overload that Jimena is expected to bring. The residents here can expect gobs flash flooding and washouts to entertain them in addition to the rain and wind.
At this stage of the game there is no telling what Jimena will do next. The projection with the highest probability has her hugging the central spine of the peninsula all the way up. This will cause her to weaken very rapidly but she should retain enough of her punch to wet down the whole territory from Cabo clear to Mexicali.
For those of you living in the lower Colorado Basin all the way to Lake Mead...If you think it's stuffy now, wait until about Thursday afternoon. This will be about the time the remnants of a nearly dead Jimena will bring thunder, lightning, wilting humidity and isolated showers that could produce rainfall amounts on the order of 1 to 2 inches per hour.