Sebelius: Closing Schools Won't Halt H1N1

(CBS/ AP)  Last updated at 7:06 p.m. ET

Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said Tuesday that a massive school closing wouldn't stop the spread of the swine flu virus, saying vaccinations must be the defense against a menace that one report said could infect up to half of the population.

"What we know is that we have the virus right now traveling around the United States," Sebelius said in a nationally broadcast interview. "And having children in a learning situation is beneficial ... What we learned last spring is that shutting a school down sort of preemptively doesn't stop the virus from spreading."

Sebelius appeared on NBC's "Today" show one day after a special presidential advisory panel presented a to the Obama White House, saying among other things that a "plausible scenario" for the United States later this year is wide-scale infections, possibly 30,000 to 90,000 deaths, mostly among young children and young adults, and perhaps as many as 300,000 sick enough to require intensive care unit treatment at hospitals.

Asked in the interview what people should do while awaiting the arrival of a vaccine, with first supplies likely by October but most not until the Thanksgiving season, Sebelius said: "I think it's important that people begin to anticipate that we will have a vaccine. We think it's likely that we're going to need two shots for the vaccine."

She said people should plan ahead for this, particularly those with pre-existing medical conditions, pregnant women and health care industry workers. Sebelius said federal health authorities also are recommending that people should immediately get their regular "seasonal" flu vaccine to bolster their health for the scenario yet to play out later this year regarding the swine flu virus.

"Seasonal flu vaccine is ready at the beginning of September," she said. "We want the population that is most at risk to begin their seasonal flu vaccine now."

Sebelius said on MSNBC that the government has asked drug makers to accelerate the manufacture of antiviral medication that could be administered intravenously to hospitalized swine flu victims.

To monitor the vaccine's safety as it is given to millions, the CDC has bulked up its surveillance system, reports CBS News medical correspondent Dr. Jennifer Ashton. The CDC is checking up on tens of thousands of vaccine recipients daily by Internet and texting, and is following 1.5 million military recruits who get the vaccine.

A report by the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, delivered Monday, said that while the impact of H1N1 was impossible to predict, a "plausible scenario" is that the epidemic could "produce infection of 30-50 percent of the U.S. population this fall and winter, with symptoms in approximately 20-40 percent of the population (60-120 million people), more than half of whom would seek medical attention."

Swine flu could lead to as many as lead to as many as 1.8 million U.S. hospital admissions during the epidemic, with up to 300,000 patients requiring care in intensive care units. In fact, those very ill patients could occupy 50-100 percent of all ICU beds in affected regions of the country at the peak of the epidemic and place "enormous stress" on ICU units.

Seasonal flue typically causes 30,000-40,000 annual deaths, mainly among people over 65.

People with certain pre-existing conditions, including pregnant women and patients with neurological disorders or respiratory impairment, diabetes, or severe obesity are at high risk, along with certain populations, such as Native Americans, the report said.

The fall resurgence in swine flu could occur as early as September, with the beginning of the school term, and the peak infection may occur in mid-October.

The report emphasized that this was a planning scenario, not a prediction. But, it added, "the scenario illustrates that an H1N1 resurgence could cause serious disruption of social and medical capacities in our country in the coming months."

[debinok1]

Oh yeah, I am going to rely on a vaccine that skipped the MAJORITY of testing protocols and went almost straight to HUMAN testing. They have only a marginal idea of what this vaccine may do and NO idea as to the long term side effects. I am supposed to let them inject my child and me, while they HOPE nothing bad turns up. NOT BLOODY LIKELY!

[toldyouso29]

They want the schools kept open due to economics only. If kids stay home, so do many parents who either cannot find or afford day care and so cannot go to work--then the economy suffers more. They are NOT caring about the children. In every epidemic, viral or bacterial, to halt the spread of contagion, sooner or later quarantine sets in --that is when businesses are closed, schools are closed and at least the spread is slowed. Keeping kids home will not stop the spread of any disease, but it will slow it down and minimize the exposure of children to the virus due to proximity, and lax hygiene.

The problem with a vaccine is that they are gambling that they know the strains that will be in the flu and that the strain used will not hypersensitize the children and make the flu even worse. Reminds me of all the foresight that went into the works before Katrina hit. Heaven help stupid government officials.

[govmess]

Medicare people will not get a flu shot because they are too old.

This administration wants them to just die and make Obama happy

[erasmus111]

EVERYBODY LISTEN UP!

KNOW HOW THE POSTS REPEAT? TRY NOT REPLYING IN THE "REPLY TO COMMENT" SECTION. IT SEEMS LIKE THOSE ARE THE ONES THAT ARE ALWAYS REPEATED. GO BACK TO THE OLD WAY OF COPYING AND PASTING THE COMMENTS INTO A WHOLE NEW POST. TRY IT AND SEE IF IT STOPS DOING IT.

[toldyouso29]

What we know is that air borne infections that can also spread by mucosal contact work best in environments with poor controls, poor hygiene and close contact. Ergo--school children who don't cover their mouths when sneezing or coughing, who do not wash their hands after wiping or rubbing their noses or eyes and who regularly share pencils, paper and other stuff with other children, who in turn--are not paranoid and manic enough to wash their hands after touching such items then eating or rubbing their own noses or eyes.

Sebilius is wrong--to minimize any contagion, one must slow down or stop possible exposure--that means quarantine--which means no school. But the government knows that no school also means no or few parents to go to work, no one to afford additional money for day care--and thus, a slow economy or a crash to the already ailing economy.

This is all not being said for the safety of the children--in the bigger picture, it is said for the economy and thus the administration's approval rating as for the vaccine--it is not a guarantee of not getting the infection for this reason:

The virus's MOI is contingent on which strain of influenza from swine (there are hundreds) combine with which strain of human flu (there are hundreds) every year the CDC GAMBLES on which strains are the most likely. For this vaccine, the CDC is gambling that the swine flu virus as isolated from patients and cultured is the one people will get.

BUT-this flu already mutated once this year and combined with a person exposed to Avian flu--giving us the Avian/Swine flu combo that had jumped species. If it does it again OR if a different strain does the same or gets in a host with a different strain of flu--all bets are off and the vaccine is worthless. It is also a risk that the flu strain can hypersensitize those who take it as a vaccine or even who catch it.

In the 1918 flu, people died within 45 minutes of showing symptoms then having their lungs fill up with fluid--what no one correlated was if these people had been exposed to the earlier strain that was out in the spring. If they were, their sudden deaths was not due to the flu itself but to the allergic reaction when their bodies were exposed to the same antigen again the second time. This would explain why young instead of old died. (the susceptible old would have already died in the spring due to the flu, the younger would have weathered it but been hypersensitized) It has only been in the past 15 years that doctors have begun to realize how deadly allergies really are --including asthma and other respiratory diseases which are autoimmune diseases. (your body attacking themselves)

So here is the problem--this vaccine can be a helper and a saver from the swine flu--or it can be the causitive agent which turns into a nightmare. STaying home is a great idea only if we as a nation can afford it. WE can't. Besides--just how long would we keep our kids at home? it is not as if the flu is on a time schedule.

[mcapek]

Is she saying that anybody can get the seasonal vaccination starting next week (next Tuesday is Sept 1)??? That seems highly unlikely looking at the past record. My kids had to wait until December last year before the vaccine was available. And exactly when will be the H1N1 vaccine be available? Is the government going to be able to deliver it in time, BEFORE there is a widespread infection?

[nomealaska]

I hear that wingnuts are a high-risk category! Sorry Mr. Spam, but you will be missed.

[RCC_Soldaten]

Why is that?

[rdepontb]

Hey, Stn_Sage--- What an ignorant creep. You've no need to mock anyone's basis of faith at all; that freedom is what our Nation's founders most sought. As for "D.C." incumbents, are you talking about our Black President here? Along with missing your meds, did you miss your latest klan meeting too? Get out of the public eye, and try to get some help.

[donnerwetter]

Lets see, Ridge manipulated the terror threat level by flashing colored cards. Now, another creep from teh same evil Government is flashing the H1N1 flag. Euroep has long declared that this H1N1 scare is nothing more than a direct attack by the Pharam companies on the general public. Sebelius dear, go back to sleep until 2012 when we kick your ass.

[stn_sage]

To rdepontb:

First, someone may be "an ignorant creep", but it isn't me!

Second, I'm not "mocking" anyone's religion! I'm suggesting that people shouldn't blame God for disasters, calamities, and blunders originating from mankind! Understand?! Yet?!

Third, I'm talking about any incumbent who isn't doing their job of
representing the public's agenda---whether Democrat OR Republican---and
who is, in fact, doing harm to the country! I don't expect Mr. Obama
will be re-elected, he'll have to steal the election to be re-elected!

Fourth, I don't do meds---possibly, unlike you?!

Fifth, I don't belong to the KKK---possibly, like you?!

And, finally if you're not adult enough to read someone else's comments without needlessly launching personal attacks upon them, then I suggest YOU follow your own advice; that is, get out of the public eye and seek
medical or psychological help, which you obviously, desperately need!

[gregsmalltwn]

Hey Stn_Sage- you need to go see your therapist (you sound like you are off your meds again). Seriously- go seek help.

[hologram5]

The guy is right on the money. The Virus contains genomes from three different species, the swine, the avian and the human virus. Are you trying to tell us that this happens in nature? Right, I have some property to sell you. In the middle of a swamp.

[stn_sage]

To gregsmalltwn:

Well, buddy---I'm hoping that you don't pay any attention to what I'm saying---and run out and get your FREE flu shot(s)!

Then, we'll find out who's correct on this issue! You'll be sick in bed, crying for your mama, wishing you had listened to me and others, and I'll be laughing my a*r*s*e off at you, because you didn't listen
to me and others!

Go for it, wiseguy! Go get your shots and report back to me the results, if you're able to---that is!

[mrleme]

Good thing we are all sinners and are saved only by the love and grace of God. Yes we need to pray because this is life and it happens to all of us; the good, the bad and the ugly.