How Many Millions Are Uninsured, Really?

While Obama Cites 46M Uninsured, Experts Argue that Numbers Could Vary By 10M Either Way

(AP)  It is a central goal of the president's plan: Extending health care coverage to the millions of Americans who lack it. Question is, just how many million are uninsured?

The answer could make a huge difference in the billions of dollars it will cost to remake the national health care system.

President Barack Obama frequently cites last year's Census Bureau number of 46 million people with no health insurance. But some experts argue that figure is off by tens of millions - in one direction or the other.

The recession's continuing toll on jobs, a tendency to undercount people on a health care for the poor program and other factors make it hard to come up with an exact number. And the most widely accepted range - 40 million to 50 million - includes some 10 million non-citizens, a detail that is generally overlooked when Obama and others talk about "uninsured Americans."

The lack of certainty about such big numbers is one more question mark for Obama and members of Congress as they try to craft a plan that would cover most of the uninsured. Obama says his goal is to cover 97 percent to 98 percent of Americans, a target that would be reached by plans taking shape in the Senate - if you do not count illegal immigrants. A bill crafted by House Democrats comes in closer to 94 percent.

All the plans would exclude illegal immigrants, who account for as much as 17 percent of the uninsured, according to the Pew Hispanic Center.

"I want to cover everybody," Obama said at a news conference last month. "Now, the truth is that unless you have a what's called a single-payer system in which everybody is automatically covered, then you're probably not going to reach every single individual."

Some people do not want health insurance or just do not bother to get it, but most people who do not have it cannot afford it, Obama said.

"So I think that the basic idea should be that in this country, if you want health care, you should be able to get affordable health care," he said.

New Census Bureau figures expected next month could scramble the equation, adding billions in costs if the numbers come in higher than expected, or reducing costs if the numbers are lower.

There could be serious implications "if we all of a sudden found that instead of 45 million uninsured there are 35 million," said Michael O'Grady, a senior fellow at the University of Chicago's health policy and evaluation department and a former assistant secretary at the Department of Health and Human Services.

A lower figure could cut two ways: making Congress' job cheaper, but also making the country's health care woes seem less pressing.

Even if there are fewer uninsured than now estimated, health experts emphasize that it is still a lot of people, and being uninsured has consequences. The Institute of Medicine has found that uninsured people are more likely to succumb to illness and suffer premature death.

Still, some overhaul foes are accusing the media of overreporting the number of uninsured in order to frighten the public and "bolster calls for universal government-run insurance coverage," as a report by the conservative media watchdog Media Research Center's Business and Media Institute put it.

The 46 million number (actually 45.7 million) cited by Obama and others comes from the Census Bureau's annual Current Population Survey for 2007. It's the consensus figure, but some researchers believe the CPS overstates the number of uninsured people, partly by undercounting how many people are on Medicaid, the federal-state program for the poor.

Another government survey, the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey done by the Department of Health and Human Services, says that about 40 million people were uninsured for all of 2007, and about 70 million were uninsured for part of the year.

All those numbers are out-of-date. Taking into account the effects of the recession, with widespread job losses cutting into employer-provided health care - more than 5 million jobs have been lost since last August - researchers at the Urban Institute and elsewhere estimate that the present-day number of uninsured is closer to 50 million. That's the number used by the Congressional Budget Office.

The Census Bureau is releasing its Current Population Survey for 2008 on Sept. 10. Then, later in September, for the first time, it's releasing health coverage information collected by the American Community Survey, which has a much larger sample size than the CPS. Some researchers are expecting that number to be more precise.

[mary-miami]

The amount of people who have no access to a doctor, dentist, optometrist is staggering. Some people who are lucky enough to have a job, don't have the opportunity to have healthcare because their employers don't offer it as a benefit, and if they are earning a miserable minimum wage (which is not a livable one) they cannot pay for healthcare, because eating is necessary for survival. Healthcare must be FREE. Many people will not be able to pay even a reduced amount for insurance, because sometimes they count coins to buy a loaf of bread. No exageration. Reality...We need a livable wage to eliminate the majority of problems society has. My opinion...no less than 10 dollars an hour.

[flsunjnky]

Most Americans want a national health care plan with a government run option. The GOP wants to hold at status quo. But we are tired of big business insurance companies and big business drug companies that have driven our health care system to the brink and we are also sick and tired of congressmen and senators that support them instead of their constituents. That's about "it" in a nutshell.

[ibsteve2u]

I would say something about righties here being crazy with all of their ranting about the government lying...

On the other hand, their guys lied us right into a war that has killed 4300+ Americans, a bunch of our allies, and who knows how many Iraqis.

So the fact is the righties ARE the experts on lying governments; heck, some of 'em may have knowingly helped promulgate lies themselves!

Here's hoping the righties here are wrong, and the Democrats in Congress remember that they aren't Republicans!

[6591Hou]

The health-care delivery system cannot be fixed, because there is no system.
System (from Latin syst?ma, in turn from Greek ??????? syst?ma) is a set of interacting or interdependent entities forming an integrated whole. In place of a true system, because it is most definitely not 'an integrated whole', is an alphabet soup of insurance companies, a patchwork quilt of regulations and guidelines, a hodgepodge of different hospitals and clinics, and an overworked and frustrated population of care providers.

[Daves1221]

The ripples have started before the major storm. WE MUST BE ON OUR GUARD?


More than ever before, this is the time to ignite the major issues under the feet of all politicians. We need the extraction process of mandated E-Verify composite of the SAVE ACT; to remove illegal labor from the workplace in all businesses Gathered together with local police detainment 287(g), the NO MATCH Social Security law and not to weaken ICE raids. All patriotic Americans who believe in a pro-sovereignty, anti-illegal immigrant must contact their arrogant pandering lawmakers, demanding no amnesty, no chain migration and build the border fence according two original specifications. American Workers and the general public must fight against abhorrent special interest groups, such as US chamber of Commerce, ACLU, La Raza, Council of Foreign Relations, ImmigrationWorksUSA and many more. Say--NO--to ACORN INVOLVED IN THE 2010 CENSUS. Sen. Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi are the American Workers worst enemies?

That SANCTUARY STATES like California must rescind illegal immigrant refuge policies. That President Obama's health care renewal plan?WILL--attract millions more impoverished people from around the world. That they can join with the 20 plus million already here, to get free medical care under the Democrats law now passing through Congress. MY QUESTION IS! WHY SHOULD TAXPAYERS SUPPORT THE ILLEGAL LABOR FOR THE PARASITE CORPORATE ENTITIES ACROSS AMERICA? CALL TODAY AND GIVE POLITICIANS AT 202-224-3121 YOUR CRESCENDO OF FRUSTRATION? THAT'S ALL THEY UNDERSTAND--WHEN THEIR JOBS ARE IN PERIL. GOOGLE NUMBERSUSA AND JUDICIALWATCH TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE CORRUPTION AND PROFITEERING FROM BOTH PARTIES. OVERPOPULATION will be the irreversible consequences of mass immigration.

[ianlou]

Five out of six of my brother-in-laws have no health insurance.
They are all Redneck Republicans who care more about supporting the NRA than their families health care needs. They complain about their tax dollars being waisted on welfare recipients, even though they have avoided paying income taxes their entire lives by working for cash under the table. Three of them have recently lost their houses and blame the Democrats because Obama was in office when the bills finally caught up with them. Life is not all bad for them, though; they still have their hand guns, Bud Light and NASCAR.

[xlib]

And they are ever so lucky to have such an enlightened elitist like yourself to show them the way. And, btw, I do believe you may have meant to say "wasted" instead of "waisted".
Just how did you ever lift yourself out of such a miserable life?? My, my, you are a beacon of hope.

[panhandlpete]

So we short-term memory loss folks have forgotten that the enormous price gouging of OIL is really the culprit that sent our economy toward the pitts. And, even a sentence of a falsehood sent over the wires can make its cost go up or down via the stockmarket. The past administration took us to WAR for OIL. Don't say it was because of 9/11 connections for none have been shown that Iraq had anything to do with this dastardly act. So, why doesn't the government make a drastic change in the stock market so that oil, or any other commodity, must be accepted/delivered if bought. This would limit speculators who live off others.....all of us. The original purpose of the SM was for businesses to sell shares in their company to raise capital......not to become the world's largest casino. Through dividends paid annually to its stockholders after a reasonable profit realized, it started out with great expectations.

And now, we are buying into the 'glorious song' being sung that we need a complete reform of the health care system to off all access to HEALTH INSURANCE. Having health insurance may help some folks get better health CARE than they do now simply because payment will be assured to those rendering the care....hospitals, drs, and nursing homes. The second question asked at a hospital is "...the name of your insurance company?"
When all the costs get tallied up, and the insurance companies add their profits(an amount as high as possible) exactly how does an intelligent person think the costs will go down? They will not unless strict laws are passed which CONTROL/REGULATE/PROTECT the public against premium increases and service charges by those healthcare providers.

This healthcare reform is being pushed as a method to create that data bank on every person living in the US.....???? Can you think of a better way to do it than this?

[Snowhare]

1. Lets wait for the census and see what number of uninsured comes up. My guess: it will prove the necessity for a reform.
2. The opponents of health care reform are either operating with lies or are simply misinformed. However honest the outrage of some people is, the information on which they act isfalse - and in my opinion it is actually incredible how you can even start to assume euthanasia or denying necessary procedures could be part of any program.
3. Even if the number of uninsured is lower than expected, one problem remains: Insurance companies make a lot of profit and are still raising premiums - how does that go together? - reform is needed! Regulation and why not a government-run competitor?

[Solarrays247]

I agree. Nice post. This issue goes much deeper than simply covering the uninsured.

Have a nice night!

[rhs648]

If you cut premiums by 50% many of us would jump on reform. Until that happens, many of us prefer the coverage that we already have. Saving us money with the same or equal coverasge would be real reform. Heck, every department store offers 10% off but that is really piddly considering the 100% or more markup they add to their cost. President Obama chose to turn things upside down instead of tweaking the system which most Americans would prefer. We are a nation of moderates, not revolutionaries. Excepting the extremes on the left and right, most of us fall in the middle. Knowing that, it is unwise to turn things upside down. Further, many of us are waiting to see what happens with the bailouts, the stimulous package, social security, medicare, medicaide, and taxes before even more debt is created. Health care reform is probably contigent on Americans having confidence in the Obama adminstration. You might not like the answers in my post but the concerns are very real.

[start99]

DUHHH!! Go figure why there are so many comments to this!! Why pay our Reps and Dems as in contributions when they are already being paid to represent US!!! Helloooo!! This is all about greed!!! Nothing else! This is why we are in the situation we are in now....We will always pay for their greed until there is a gather of people that are tired of this crap.

[Aldymac]

I had a Dr. appointment yesterday and asked the doc about the number the administration keeps spouting, he said the true number is in the 8 million range. If the polititions and lobbiests weren't going to make millions in kick backs there wouldn't be such a panic to get the legislation passed as quickly as they want.

[Solarrays247]

Please disclose the source from which your doctor received his/her information? 'Cause I don't believe you at all!!!!

[jsd330]

solarrays247
Thats because you only believe what Obama and company tell you, if it could be proven you would say it was funded by the repubs or big insurance.

[Solarrays247]

"solarrays247
Thats because you only believe what Obama and company tell you, if it could be proven you would say it was funded by the repubs or big insurance." jsd330 August 5, 2009 10:09 PM EDT


I only believe what I have experienced and researched on my own, thank you very much! Unlike most of you, and that includes you, on this board, I actually sold health insurance for many years as part of my service to my corporate clients in my capacity as a Financial Management Advisor! I'm 62 years old, semi-retired, with my own small business now. I've lived it and I've breathed it....and I'll be damned if I will allow anyone to tell me that black is white, and white is black! Catch my drift?

There are republicans and democrats that have received and are still currently receiving huge sums of money in the form of campaign contributions. That is a matter of public record! Please don't tell me that you are not aware of this fact!!

[Solarrays247]

There are republicans and democrats that have received and are still currently receiving huge sums of money in the form of campaign contributions. That is a matter of public record! Please don't tell me that you are not aware of this fact!!

I meant to add that reps and senators from both parties are receiving huge campaign contributions from members of the health insurance and pharmaceutical industries....and it is a matter of public record!!

[SublimeWoody]

I've been wondering a lot about that number, which seemed to have appeared out of thin air some weeks ago. Does anyone have a factual answer to the question of who put it forth? To this moment I simply have to reject any number, irrespective of party affiliation, being thrown around so irresponsibility.

Though I doubt anyone will actually check it out, there's a terrific book by a couple of BBC folks, called "The Numbers Game." Absolutely fascinating stuff, that shows empirically how organizations [the media, governments, corporations, NGOs, etc] put up bogus numbers to support whatever hobby horse they're riding. The book is so good it's required reading for British Government employees.

[Solarrays247]

SublimeWoody, actually, the article does cite their sources for the numbers quoted. You can check them out at your leisure.

[caliguy55]

My inbox has been flooded with emails spreading crazy rumors about health reform so I wanted to share some facts from AARP about what's really going on. Please join me in forwarding these facts to everyone you know. Print them out and pass them around at your social gatherings and other places where people are discussing the issues of the day.

FACT #1: Medicare will not be ended, and no benefits or services will be cut.

Your services will not be ended, nor will your benefits be cut. AARP's position on this could not be clearer. And we have sent this message loud and clear to Congress. While the current proposals include savings in Medicare by cutting out fraud, abuse, waste, and inefficiency, we're standing up and making sure benefits for Medicare recipients are not only fully protected, but are improved.1

FACT #2: No legislation currently in Congress would mandate the rationingof care. Period.

Our staff has read all of the legislation circulating in Congress and there are no provisions in these bills that would ration care for our members. None. If any ever did, we would vigorously fight to stop that legislation.2

FACT #3: There is no provision of any piece of legislation that would promote euthanasia of any kind.

The rumors out there are flat out lies. Right now Medicare does not cover counseling for end-of-life care. The portion of the bill in question would simply provide coverage for optional end-of-life consultations with doctors, so that the patient can be aware of all of the treatment options on the table. It is not mandatory and it has nothing to do with euthanasia.3

FACT #4: We have not endorsed President Obama's plan.

In fact, we haven't endorsed any plan. We are supporting reform of our health care system, something that AARP has pushed for many years. We're working closely with Republican and Democratic members of Congress to lower health care costs and to ensure quality affordable coverage for older Americans ? and we want reform legislation passed and signed by the president this year.

So what is AARP fighting for in health reform?

1. Stopping insurance companies from charging older Americans unaffordable premiums because of their age.

2. Ending the practice of excluding people from insurance because of pre-existing conditions.

3. Holding down health costs and making insurance coverage more affordable for all Americans.

4. Making prescription drugs more affordable by narrowing the Medicare doughnut hole, bringing generics to market faster, and allowing Medicare to negotiate better drug prices.

Find out more and take action at HealthActionNow.org.

[jsd330]

The AARP is no different then the health insurance companies, no matter what they say. They push Life insurance, Medicare supplements,auto insurance ect. I'll bet if the government went into competition with them on any of these types of insurance, they would be screaming foul. I used to be a member until I figured out all they are trying to do is prey on the senior market, so they can make a profit off of senior citizens.

[Aldymac]

I quit aarp several years ago when I found that all their political donations were direct deposited to the DNC.

[HGOODGUY]

NICE TO SEE A LITTLE CLARITY AMONGST THE IDIOT BRIGADE!!

[rhs648]

Aren't you the group that fought Presiden George Bush Sr. when he wanted nursing home coverage for all seniors. My father, who died in a nursing home in 2000, could have benefitted from government provided nursing home coverage but your group, the AARP opposed such coverage. Would you have opposed nursing home coverage if it was proposed by a democrat? This is wehy I haven't joined AARP since becoming eligible 11 years ago.

[rhs648]

correction

Aren't you the group that fought President George Bush Sr. when he wanted nursing home coverage for all seniors. My father, who died in a nursing home in 2000, could have benefitted from government provided nursing home coverage but your group, the AARP opposed such coverage. Would you have opposed nursing home coverage if it was proposed by a democrat? This is why I haven't joined AARP since becoming eligible 11 years ago.

[brooke50]

My problem with this plan is basically two fold: 1) Obama's plan is not only for American Citizens. It will cover illegals and other non-citizens. 2) Not one peep, as to what the cost will be -

However, other major concerns are that is no distisingtion in what is covered and what is excluded. There is a huge difference between NEED and WANT.

A) Those people (usually well off) who choose (want) to have elective cosmetic sugeries, such as boob jobs, tummy tucks and face lifts, should bear the full brunt of the costs themselves. Or purchase a very expensive rider.

B) Those who end up NEEDING emergency gall-bladder, appendix, heart sugery, etc. should be covered without causing a deadly financial hardship or ruining their credit.

C) Those who NEED, BUT NOT EMERGENCY - (although in lots of pain, there is temp. medication) hip-replace, and whotever, have the opportunity to shop around to find the lowest cost hospital, surgical implant, surgeon, etc.

Also important, there is no demand that doctors or hospitals post specific costs. Every hospital knows the exact cost for each day in hospital, each medical proceedure, etc. Anyone should be able to contact the hospital and negotiate the price for his/her surgery. You should be able to decide which test (and your doctor/surgeon should have already told you specifically why and what tests, x-rays and how many he needs) you will have, if or if any other doctor will be poping in to see you - etc.

And finally, Doctors are not Gods, things go wrong if you have a surgery performed, and already paid the Drs. and Emerg. Rm, and hospital once, you should not have to pay again if something went wrong or was not done correctly the first time -

I was lucky enough to have to have 3 different emergency surgeries for my gall bladder, don't ask (I didn't know till I woke up), I was out of it, but last one was an incision about 12 inches long. I was charged 3 times for the surgery, 3 times for emergency room and 3 times for hospital. (I nor my insurance should have had to pay one dime)- not to mention that as a result of these sugeries weaknesses were made that caused me to suffer 3 hernias, along the incision and 1 where the probes went twice through my belly button. I had to pay the surgeon and hospital for this - and what's even more funny, is all three hernia repairs have ruptured - and I was told I had to pay to get them fixed again - Doctor said there was a lot of scare tissue, and there was not mcu he couldd attach 2 of the patchs too. My bellly button one an innie is now a full blown outtie - patch held, but I guess he forgot an area.

And I know Obama has no contingecy in his plan to cover this type of problem. So you there is way more though needed into his plan -

[Solarrays247]

brooke50,

You might save yourself some angst, and stop believing half-truths and lies. Please do yourself a favor, and check out the following link...and remember this link only covers H3200 which is the only proposal passed so far out of four different proposals.

Here are the facts. Anyone can verify them by reading the proposal at

http://www.opencongress.org/bill/111-h3200/text

[xlib]

AARP is hardly a non-partisan organization. The only way to debunk is to read HR 3200 for yourself, something Congress can't seem to do.
And they HAVE endorsed his plan, no doubt about it.
I was a member of AARP and got sick and tired of the propaganda.

[elpaulito]

oh, ok. 36m uninsured. no problemo!

[debinok1]

Lets face it, true health care reform would be regulating the insurance industry. Making them offer affordable healthcare without restrictions to everyone. This is what americans want, no fanfare, no town halls, just good old fashioned regulation. Make the insurance companies do what they are supposed to be doing. The government is looking for ways to take more control over the people, when they should be taking control of the insurance industry.

[Solarrays247]

debinok1, I feel your pain. Are you aware of the following?

The health insurance industry was given "some rope" during the 1980's by the introduction of HMO's & PPO's. HMO's & PPO's were the instruments, "the cure", to be used to efficiently contain costs and improve care. The insurance companies promised that this would do the trick!

Efficient? Where is the efficiency when 20%-30% of each premium payment dollar is used up by administrative costs! And that's just the tip of the iceberg!! The other alternative w-a-y back then was exactly what we are now facing AGAIN as a nation!

It sure looks like the insurance industry has used that rope to hang itself because of it's greed! They fooled us once....shame on them. If they fool us a second time....shame on us! (yea, George, that's the correct way to quote it).

The insurance industry did not keep its promises to the American people for over twenty years! And they want us to give them another chance to screw us over again?

Excuse me if I feel great trepidation in trusting the insurance industry with my health or with the care of my loved ones any longer!

[FauxNews]

If someone needs medical attention in the US, hospitals are required by law to treat them in emergency rooms whether they pay or not. So, do the math, we are 100 percent insured.

[Solarrays247]

While working in my office this morning, I listened to one of our local radio talk shows. Officials from the Geisinger Medical Center, which is close by, were being interviewed, and this subject was addressed. (In case you are not aware, Geisinger is being studied on a national level, and has won accolades for its cost containment policies and outstanding health care, based on it's medical center and also health insurance plans.)

According to these officials this morning, it is more cost effective to treat a patient in the early stages of an illness than it is to treat them once their illness has reached an acute state, and the only redress for their situation is to rush to an emergency room!

We are all paying for this acute, very expensive care in the emergency room, FauxNews....100%! Who do you think is paying for the uninsured when they are treated in an emergency room? You do the math!!!

Something needs to be done to contain costs!

[slownewsday_5]

FauxNews - the hospitals also have a right to pursue compensation from those who use their services. Those requirements to treat are not requirements to treat free-of-charge.

Look up the #1 reason for personal bankruptcy in the US.

[ianlou]

Yeah, I hear every insured American pays an extra $1200 per year in insurance premiums to pay for these free ER visits by the uninsured.
With predictions of fewer jobs in America offering health insurance in the future combined with the baby-boomers hitting old age, this $1200 welfare tax imposed by the insurance companies is predicted to sky-rocket for those still insured.

Quit spouting off like this ER BS is an effective solution to address the medical needs of the uninsured.

[hennighg]

Sure. AIG has us covered. Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. Ever see Sicko? The health care people stuck it to us for decades, we bail a bunch of them out, and now they fight health care. I'm uninsured, and half the people I know are. 10M either way, then, must mean 56M. Hey, isn't the Cheney administration out?

[noloyalisti]

I think wtlibbs is a corporate lobbyist for the health care corporations. Why else would they be against change and for the current fiasco? The fat pigs are wallowing in our money.

[the_majesty]

ACORN should be able to help Obama out on this....

[the_majesty]

I'm waiting .....