July 28, 2009
(CBS) Juan Zarate is a CBS News consultant and former Deputy National Security Adviser for Combating Terrorism. How To Hasten Al Qaeda's Demise
Juan Zarate: Al Qaeda Is Down But Not Out. Here's How To Finish The Job
With bombings in Iraq and Jakarta and the ongoing challenges from militants and terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan, there is no doubt terrorism remains a serious global threat, even where counterterrorism efforts have been successful overall. This is precisely why we should not let partisan debates about investigating post-9/11 policies inadvertently distract us from seizing a strategic opportunity: al Qaeda is on the ropes, and we must do everything we can to hasten its demise.
Al Qaeda is in decline because its senior leadership is being methodically destroyed, its primary safe haven is being undermined, its strategy is failing, and its ideology is being rejected within Muslim communities around the world. We must now hasten al Qaeda's demise while containing the post-al Qaida terrorist threat and the violent ideology that it spawned. Imagining the end of al Qaeda is not foolhardy. It's a realistic way of ensuring that day arrives.
Though al Qaeda seemed resurgent from 2005 to 2007, and remains a dangerous threat to the Homeland and in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq, it is losing the broader war.
• We are dismantling al Qaeda's hard-to-replace core leadership while its planners worry more about spies in their midst than launching the next strategic attack;
• Funding is sparse with a demoralized donor base, likely forcing al Qaeda to make tough budget decisions and shortchange long-term projects, like their WMD programs;
• Al Qaeda and its affiliates have failed to regain strategic footholds in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, East Asia, and the Levant;
• Its regional satellites in North Africa, Central Asia, and East Africa, though dangerous, have not become the strategic outposts that would threaten the West directly; and
• A number of al Qaeda's major strategic plots against the United States and Europe since 2006 have been disrupted through intense intelligence and law enforcement cooperation. Importantly, all quarters in Muslim communities are now openly challenging al Qaeda.
Some in the so-called jihadi community deconstruct the violent ideology and ask critically what al Qaeda's agenda has achieved. Ex-jihadis in the London-based Quilliam Foundation and Muslim scholars in Singapore's Religious Rehabilitation Group have organized to counteract the ideology and activities of violent extremists. Al Qaeda's radically exclusionary ideology and violent tactics, victimizing even Muslim civilians, have led to its rejection. The slaughter of civilians again in Jakarta's hotels will not endear violent extremists in the most populous Muslim society in the world.
This crisis of legitimacy matters, leading to reduced support and funding.
President Obama has a unique opportunity to put a dagger through the heart of al Qaeda's narrative that the West is at war with Islam, which most Muslims still believe. His very person breaks all the stereotypes of a racist and hypocritical United States Al Qaida relies upon to sell their snake oil.
Al Qaeda's statements after the President's election - calling him a "house slave" leading a "Zionist conspiracy" responsible for perceived atrocities in Gaza and Pakistan -- prove it is worried. The battle of ideas manifested itself vividly when bin Laden and Zawahiri each came out with statements right before the President's Cairo speech intended to taint him and his message. President Obama has a chance to undermine the most fundamental dimension of the extremists' narrative upon which their strategy is based.
In Iraq, which bin Laden once called the "golden and unique opportunity" to wage a central battle against the United States, al Qaeda is in retreat. Its dream of an "Islamic State of Iraq" to serve as a platform for regional expansion was repulsed by its supposed core constituency - Sunni Arabs in the heart of the Middle East. Al Qaeda's senior leadership no longer mentions Iraq, where local resistance with American backing has it in retreat.
Al Qaeda's focus has shifted to Afghanistan and Pakistan, where the core leadership will make its last stand. Yet the Pakistani government and people have awoken to the threat of Talebanization and al Qaeda in their midst. With the American surge in Afghanistan, the long anticipated Pakistani military campaign in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas FATA) will add directly to al Qaida's woes.
Given the history of al Qaeda's patience and resilience, these trends can change without continued focus. We must pressure al Qaeda on all fronts now: disrupting plots; destroying its core leadership; pressuring Iran to hold the al Qaeda leadership in its custody; regaining momentum in Afghanistan; supporting Pakistanis and Iraqis' denial of safe haven; and empowering regional and credible actors to contain al Qaeda's nodes.
Ensuring the end of al Qaeda requires that we not allow the growing penchant for second-guessing and politics regarding post-9/11 policies to chill our counterterrorism operations and cooperation with foreign counterparts. Now is not the time to do lasting damage to our efforts to dismantle al Qaida while we attempt to expiate perceived sins of the past.
A world without al Qaeda is undeniably safer. Al Qaeda is the heart of the global Sunni terrorist movement focused on attacking the West and developing WMD. While the end of al Qaeda will not end terrorism or the allure of its ideology, it is a necessary step to disable the global terrorist movement.
The great danger in what transpired recently in Jakarta is that it portend an attempted resurrection of the ties between Southeast Asian terror networks and al Qaeda. It is time to finish the job of destroying our common enemy when al Qaeda is down but not yet out.
By Juan Zarate:
Special to CBSNews.com
More From Opinion
Add a Comment See all 69 Comments
- The only way to defeat Al Queda, is to defeat them. As long as we keep leaving them with avenues of hope, that they can some how regroup and prevail, they will continue the attempt.
They are where the Communists were in the 1910s, fomenting unrest and sabotaging their enemy. Instead of promising agrarian reforms, they are promising salvation, but their goal is political and military dominance over a large part of the world. - Reply to this comment
- No mention of the airstrikes by drone aircraft of high level leaders. It must be scarry for them wondering if they will be next if they go outside, or hide out in a safe house. This is having an enormous result.
- Reply to this comment
- Eye-opening novel set in Afghanistan helped me understand the complexities of the conflict: "Veiled Freedom"
http://www.amazon.com/Veiled-Freedom-Jeanette-Windle/dp/1414314752 - Reply to this comment
- "the growing penchant for second-guessing and politics regarding post-9/11 policies..."
Oh, there you go Juan, you were doing okay with a theme that would get no disagreement from anybody until you had to get in some neocon dig for torture. Apparently anybody who used the fruits of democracy and exercised our obligations as citizens to put a stop to all of Dick Cheney's illegal and immoral activity at the ballot box weren't serious about our beliefs, we were just playing some game of "second-guessing" you neocon geniuses... - Reply to this comment
- Why did CBS need to show a photo of the dead guy who had zero to do with 9/11/01? My guess is because it is part of the MIC media that was responsible for the greatest con game ever played on the people of the western world. Something this obviously phony could not have worked without the full cooperation of major media. Of course it was easy considering the intelligence level of the masses.
- Reply to this comment
- So explain why you are NOT going to defend the article also that you ARE! I would say that makes you a liar..........
Huh, I though English was the national language over there.
Fine, thousands of operatives killed, numerous leaders dead, captured or in hiding, financial problems for Al Qaida, some of the local populace turning against Al Qaida for the suicide bombings. All valid points. I would go on but I have to leave work and meet up with friends for a beer and bocce ball.
You probably know about bocce ball living in the UK but I highly doubt you know anything about friends. Friends like accountability not charlatans.
Insult me all you want, YOU CAN NOT BACK UP YOUR CLAIM! PERIOD! - Reply to this comment
- This article implies a false premise; that somehow a public examination of post 911 actions would interfere with prosecuting war against Al Qaeda. Nothing could be further from the truth.
The resources required for acting against Al Qadeda do not overlap with those required for a full public inquiry. The "worst" that could happen is that documents long-buried out of a sense of political expediency would become public knowledge and illuminate the actual motivations of prior leadership. Nothing in that endangers the war against terrorism, albeit it may endanger the continued liberty of former officials, especially the political agents, from the prior administration. - Reply to this comment
- This article implies a false premise; that somehow a public examination of post 911 actions would interfere with prosecuting war against Al Qaeda. Nothing could be further from the truth.
The resources required for acting against Al Qadeda do not overlap with those required for a full public inquiry. The "worst" that could happen is that documents long-buried out of a sense of political expediency would become public knowledge and illuminate the actual motivations of prior leadership. Nothing in that endangers the war against terrorism, albeit it may endanger the continued liberty of former officials, especially the political agents, from the prior administration. - Reply to this comment
- LOL!
Busted, you can't back it up.
Fine I defend the ENTIRE article, now answer!
I think I am going to cry over your harsh insults:)
I will leave you alone so you can insult someone else, obviously that is all you can do - Reply to this comment
-
- Stop being a child. You said you couldn't defend the article, so obviously I'm not going to believe you now.
- Atleast I back up what I say. That is what a grown up does.
Children are known to make things up... Sound familiar?
I think your mommy is calling you to dinner lil' Howie
- You back up what you say do you? So explain why you are NOT going to defend the article also that you ARE! I would say that makes you a liar..........
- So explain why you are NOT going to defend the article also that you ARE! I would say that makes you a liar..........
Huh, I though English was the national language over there.
Fine, thousands of operatives killed, numerous leaders dead, captured or in hiding, financial problems for Al Qaida, some of the local populace turning against Al Qaida for the suicide bombings. All valid points. I would go on but I have to leave work and meet up with friends for a beer and bocce ball.
You probably know about bocce ball living in the UK but I highly doubt you know anything about friends. Friends like accountability not charlatans.
Insult me all you want, YOU CAN NOT BACK UP YOUR CLAIM! PERIOD!
- Honestly, I did not know what it meant, but I don't think you do.
Main Entry: ax·i·om·at·ic
Pronunciation: \?ak-s?-?-?ma-tik\
Function: adjective
Etymology: Middle Greek axi?matikos, from Greek, honorable, from axi?mat-, axi?ma
Date: 1797
1 : taken for granted : self-evident <an axiomatic truth>
2 : based on or involving an axiom or system of axioms <axiomatic set theory>
? ax·i·om·at·i·cal·ly \-ti-k(?-)l?\ adverb
How in the H%*l does that solve extremism????
Just because you can look up a big word that does not mean you understand it.
- Since this knucklehead STILL thinks we are winning a military victory over Al Quada, I have to break the news that you don't kill mosquitoes with hand grenades.
How about stopping our wars of terror to steal their oil. How about building schools and hospitals instead of blowing them up. Or instead of giving taxpayer money to war profiteers, we give it them.
Who are the REAL terrorists, Americans? - Reply to this comment
- We could start by telling the CIA to quit funding this group. Then we could admit that every video and audio tape of Osama Bin Lades was FAKE. Knock off the stupid dog and pony show of the Cheney crime family. Most of all we could admit that the attack on Afghanistan was not to capture one man, but was to make it possible to finish the oil pipeline and boost the illegal drug trade. Then we could admit the Iraq crusade was to get western big oil back after 39 years. The super bonus of course would be the start of WAR CRIMES trials of all those lying leaders that are responsible for the slaughter of innocent women and children in the name of PURE GREED. Of course all of this would hinge on a sudden increase of intelligence and interest of the American people. Which is very much like SSATT.
- Reply to this comment
- Is Al Qaida a military force for any one country. If not we are street fighting a bunch of thugs. This should not be a military action any more. We are not fighting an Army. It is no different than the street thugs we have in our major cities at the present time. The only difference is our police are fighting this battle. Why not let their police force and national guard handle that issue. Bring out troops home and surround our borders and stop the influx of unwanted criminals entering the United States. Thousands of our US citizens are homeless right now and there is no hope in sight for this to improve any time soon. Somebody has to wake up and address the US issues quickly are mankind on this planet will perish and soon.
- Reply to this comment
- AZ - we finally found some common ground. We both agree that AQ is a threat to everyone. We are not so far apart after all !
- Reply to this comment
- fix the whole problem and nuke the place's make a glass factory out of it
- Reply to this comment
- AQ has failed, no doubt. I agree that this article goes a bit too far but for the most part, it is a true depiction of what is going on in Iraq and Afganistan. It is documented that, when OBL started his campaign of terror, he predicted to his co-terrorists that " within two years of 9/11, the entire Mid-East would rise up against Israel and the U.S... the so called "Jihad" ! Well, that didn't happen. In fact, it is difficult to deny that the U.S attacks have been successful. The drones are hitting their unsuspecting targets and our foot soldiers are cleaning up the mess. Besides a few cowardly public bombings, AQ has pretty much vanished from Iraq and they are retreating from Afganistan. So, yeah..it is working.
- Reply to this comment
- The war on terror is over.. Ask Hillary she'll tell you
- Reply to this comment
- The current American administration does not really have the political will to mount a vigorous and suastained campaign against the al Qaeda.The anti-war component of the President's base as well the traditional soft approach of the liberal media will make sure that any effort to eradicate the terrorist menace is stillborn. The al Qaeda is only too aware of this internal American political dynamic and will take full advantage of it.
- Reply to this comment
- "In Iraq, which bin Laden once called the "golden and unique opportunity" to wage a central battle against the United States, al Qaeda is in retreat. Its dream of an "Islamic State of Iraq" to serve as a platform for regional expansion was repulsed by its supposed core constituency - Sunni Arabs in the heart of the Middle East. Al Qaeda's senior leadership no longer mentions Iraq, where local resistance with American backing has it in retreat. "
"expansion was repulsed by its supposed core constituency" and the US Army, thanks to GW..... - Reply to this comment
-
- We all know that they were not in Iraq BEFORE the "03 invasion. Saddam hated them as much as he hated Iran.
Clarity, which she did not provide...
- We all know that they were not in Iraq BEFORE the "03 invasion. Saddam hated them as much as he hated Iran.
- Al-Qaeda on the ropes? Then why are we now finding so-called home-grown Americans likewise attempting to plot jihads? Some of this article is correct, al-Qaeda is still a threat, but many al-Qaeda leaders have been taken out in one fashion or another. But to those who follow such extremist mentalities we are a disease, and to us they are a disease, ideological diseases, and hence the removal of a few leaders changes nothing. But if you need another catastrophic jihad attack to sharpen your senses, that may be forthcoming.
Everette O Lemons - Reply to this comment
- What complete and utter drivel! There isn't a single piece of evidence for these ridiculous assertions in the whole article.
Come on Juan Zarate, why don't YOU reply? If you reply I will tell YOU how violent extremism will be ended................ - Reply to this comment
-
- Please tell us Hower4 how this is all the US and Israel's fault.
How is the Genocide? Oops, I mean Sudan...
- JBARON79 - You're a few sandwiches short of a picnic, aren't you? I didn't even mention the US or Israel.
- Everytime I ever check these posts, you blame all the worlds problems on the arrogant, tell everyone what to do Americans and those money and land grabbing jews. Tell us oh wise hower4, how extremism will end and we can all get along holding hands and singing Kumbaya? You can't!! You just throw out insults and name calling(You're a few sandwiches short of a picnic, aren't you?) How many people on this site have you criticized?
You do live in the Sudan, correct?
- JBARON79 - I think there is something seriously wrong with you. I don't live in the Sudan and I've never mentioned "land grabbing Jews" on here or anywhere else (until just then of course!). Perhaps I could suggest that you seek some therapy?
- You still have not answered the question on bringing an end to extremism which was the hole point of your opening comment. All you have done is name call. On top of where you live, how old are you? Name calling is quite juvenile.
What complete and utter drivel! There isn't a single piece of evidence for these ridiculous assertions in the whole article.
Come on Juan Zarate, why don't YOU reply? If you reply I will tell YOU how violent extremism will be ended................
Please tell us all how??? You have the answer, right? How many times are you going to dodge the question YOU said you knew the answer?
- My appologies on where you live. You still have not answered the question.
Anti-Zionist, I believe that all mankind should own the land of Israel and Jerusalem. To think that one religion is more special or more deserving is ludicrous.
No, you do not offend me, probably others on this site but that is not the point. I have a couple of more hours at work myself and will wait eagerly for hower4's answer. An answer on how to end extremism, this I have to hear. Maybe the world leaders should listen to hower4, if he will answer the question...
- Please tell us Hower4 how this is all the US and Israel's fault.
