July 20, 2009
Plummeting Crime Rates Puzzle Experts
Washington Post: Criminologists Say Drop in Violent Crime in Major Cities Nationwide Is Baffling and Unexpected
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The District of Columbia, New York and Los Angeles are on track for fewer killings this year than in any other year in at least four decades. Boston, San Francisco, Minneapolis and other cities are also seeing notable reductions in homicides. (CBS)
From Our Partner:
Violent crime has plummeted in the Washington area and in major cities across the country, a trend criminologists describe as baffling and unexpected.
The District, New York and Los Angeles are on track for fewer killings this year than in any other year in at least four decades. Boston, San Francisco, Minneapolis and other cities are also seeing notable reductions in homicides.
"Experts did not see this coming at all," said Andrew Karmen, a criminologist and professor of sociology at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York.
In the District and Prince George's County, homicides are down about 17 percent this year.
Criminologists have different theories about why crime is down so much, although many agree that the common belief that crime is connected to the economy is false.
Whatever the cause, police across the region are taking credit for the drop.
"Everybody wants to beat us up when it goes up, so we'll take credit for it when it goes down," D.C. Police Chief Cathy L. Lanier said.
She said police are able to target specific locations or types of crime and policing is so high-tech that investigators are analyzing crime minute-by-minute and have greater ability to attack crime before it happens.
In Prince George's, for example, the department's top commanders get mobile phone updates on crimes and 911 calls every 15 minutes.
In New York, when someone is killed, police send a mobile data center to a neighborhood, allowing police on the scene to listen to 911 calls and immediately search databases that list the names of everyone in a certain building who is on parole.
In the District, the department creates a weekly "Go-Go report," which details where and when home-grown bands are playing, because go-go concerts often bring together rival gangs, causing violence, Lanier said. There is also a weekly gang report that tells officers which gangs or crews are feuding that week.
Armed with that information, police can better predict where crimes might happen and take measures to prevent them.
The District is on track to have fewer killings than in any year since 1964, when the population was about 760,000 and Vietnam War protests were just beginning.
In the years since, the city has struggled at times with civil unrest, the arrival of crack cocaine and the rise of street gangs. In 1991, the District was known as the murder capital of the United States, recording 479 that year. This year, there have been 79.
Last summer, the city was struggling with so much violence in the Trinidad neighborhood that police set up military-style neighborhood roadblocks and stopped people from entering unless they had a "legitimate reason." The checkpoints were so restrictive that they were ultimately ruled unconstitutional by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit.
This year, there have been several high-profile shootings in the District, including last week's late-afternoon killing of armed suspect Kellen Anthony White by the Capitol Police about a block from the confirmation hearings of Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor. Also, a security officer, Stephen T. Johns, was killed last month during the lunch hour at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum. An alleged white supremacist has been charged.
But Lanier said there has been a turnaround in violence this year. She pointed to a better relationship between the department and the community as a factor, saying it has helped get more violent repeat offenders off the streets. She said tips from the community have been flowing faster than ever, due in part to patrol officers knowing their beats and developing connections in the community.
Last year, the department paid about $500,000 in reward money for tips that led to arrests and convictions, double the amount in 2007. This year, detectives have closed about 70 percent of homicide cases.
"The community is giving us more information than ever," Lanier said. "They're used to seeing the same cop in the neighborhood every day. They feel comfortable. They have a connection to that officer. They know that officer isn't going to burn them."
Burning them, she said, would be to take information and not act on it, leaving sources to believe police are corrupt or lazy.
She also said she has torn down walls in the department so that homicide detectives talk more often with beat officers, sharing vital information.
Violent crime is also down in some of Washington's other large suburbs, including Montgomery and Fairfax counties.
Montgomery has recorded six homicides this year, putting it on track to have its lowest total since 1986.
In Prince George's, violence had been steadily rising since the 1990s, when the county started absorbing spillover crime from the District. But this year, crime is at a 20-year low, and homicides are down almost 17 percent.
Police Chief Roberto L. Hylton said that since he took over the department in September, there has been a more defined mission about how to attack crime.
He identified car thefts as one of the county's major problems and a "gateway" crime, meaning if criminals get away with stealing a car, they sometimes become emboldened and begin committing more daring acts. In 2004, about 18,500 cars were stolen in the county, more than in all of Virginia.
Since then, the department has focused on arresting car thieves and educating the public about protecting their cars, and the number of car thefts has shrunk by half.
"We have a very detailed and comprehensive strategy. We are triaging our community," Hylton said.
He said the homicide closure rate is about 70 percent, which has helped get many criminals off the streets.
"If you come into Prince George's County and you commit a murder, we're going to track you down and arrest you and lock you up," Hylton said.
Chuck Wexler, executive director of the Washington-based Police Executive Research Forum, said the drop in homicides this year is notable, especially considering the weather.
"This does come at an important time," he said. "We're midway through summer, and summer is when you see the most significant increase in street violence. Departments have had to be more strategic in terms of gangs and hot spots."
Wexler said that crime isn't down everywhere. Baltimore and Dallas are among some cities experiencing a higher number of killings compared with last year.
Gary LaFree, a criminology professor at the University of Maryland, said it has taken police decades to figure out how to effectively target crime.
"In the '60s, crime was like an act of God, like a tornado or earthquake," LaFree said. "Where policing has changed is that we've gotten the idea this is a problem we created and there are human solutions to it. Obviously, crime is not randomly distributed. It is connected to hot spots in cities and other areas."
LaFree and others agree that crime doesn't automatically go up when the economy is poor. Property crime is also trending down in many jurisdictions, including the District, Prince George's and Montgomery. The FBI reported last week that bank robberies across the country fell in the first quarter of the year, with 1,498 reported, compared with 1,604 in the first quarter of 2008.
Criminologists point to the Great Depression in the 1930s as a time of relatively low crime compared with the Roaring Twenties, when the country experienced more violence.
Lanier said that despite the good news, there's not much celebrating going on among police chiefs across the country.
"We're afraid to relax in any way and say crime is down," she said. "We tend to not talk about it much because we know how quick things can turn. What's successful today, tomorrow can turn on a dime."
Staff writers Maria Glod, Tom Jackman, Dan Morse and Josh White contributed to this report.
By Allison Klein
© 2009 The Washington Post. All rights reserved.
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Best-selling author Mitch Albom on his first nonfiction work since "Tuesdays with Morrie."
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See all 47 Comments///////// Not true, at least during the Depression of the 1930s.
It is more like - people with low self esteem and low values = crime.
Maybe certain groups feel as individuals like, ? better about themselves ?? (REAGANISM/OBAMAISM)
The Witch of Wasilla quits and shows her true colors to the voters in Alaska.
Republican senators and governors and other government officials simply tripping over themselves in a competition to see who will be the next to publically humiliate themselves and their party in a sordid affair with their mistress, their mister or their pet goat.
President Barak Obama
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
Solid Democratic majorities and complete ownership of both the Senate and the House.
Nope. Nevermind, it's all good. ;)
So, I'd like to take this opportunity to congratulate President Obama on a job very very well done!
Yeah? Like what??
They wish
1) More use of DNA evidence means more people are getting caught
2) Many states have longer mandatory sentences than years ago
3) some criminals have moved to more profitable crimes like identity theft
4) worse economy means there's less valuable stuff to steal
5) Worse econmy means fewer people can afford to buy drugs
Police forces, with help from public tips and rewards, are targeting gangs in large numbers. That is driving out the drug business, which in turn drives out the street criminals.
Police Departments are increasingly using high tech video surveillance. They can respond to calls quicker and ID perps faster.
They are putting more officers on the streets and fewer behind desks. Those with injuries, incapable of street patrol, are behind desks.
Neighborhood patrols and 911 web-sites warn citizens of crimes as they happen.
Cell phones and video have all allowed law enforcement to respond to situations quickly and effectively.
If you compare what PDs were doing ten years ago to today, it is a marked difference. I'll conceed guns to deter crime, but it is a small piece of the equation.
Obama is the greatest ever.
It was sarcasm sorry
if we need guns to end crime.. well that says about all anyone will ever need to know about humanity and it's more then likely inability to be the last dominant species on this planet.
i think it's time some of you actually realize what is you're preaching.... not exactly the sign of intelligent life
Getaways burn too much gas and hybrids aren't fast enough.
Reason # 2 - Audacity of Hope.
Most Have-Nots are rabid Obamaholics drunk with hope while waiting for the next handout.
Reason # 3 - Media too busy puffing the Obamas.
Crime is just as rampant as it always was. It's just not getting reported because the Teleprompter In Chief keeps everyone mesmerized with his relentless speeches.
Reason # 4 - Greater police/security camera presence.
Now that Barack Obama is POTUS there are more cops in Washington than the St. Patrick's Day parade.
Reason # 5 - Everybody's already dead
The gangs have already killed just about everybody on their hit lists. There's nobody left to shoot/stab/strangle.
Reason # 6 - Diversification
Crack cocaine business has increased exponentially. More turf, more money, more customers, less wars.
Good stuff. I like your thinking. Can I add a few of my own:
1.) Crimes of opportunity are down, because more and more people are home. Less Opportunity.
2.) Crimes because of desperation: People act out because of their own despair. Based On Obama's (Dem's) HOPE campaign; maybe people are cooling their jets and looking for betterment for themselves.
3.) Crimes because of race: There are a disproportionate number of crimes committed White on White, Black on Black, etc. I believe because of the Democratic administration once again we might expect there to be a 'calmer mindset' by various factions. Also, because of the fact we have a Black President, I think blacks may be afraid to commit crimes because of the still prevailing racial prejudices that prevail. No one wants to start race wars especially if this Administration fails and people are really angry.
4.) I believe parents are becoming more actively involved with their children, thus providing supervision and interpretation of their behaviors.
5.) Education - a theme the Adminisration campaigned on is becoming available, hopefully. When people can see the light at the end of the tunnel, and its not an oncoming train, they have hope for a better tomorrow.
6.) Because of the lower employment opportunities, there are a few 'illegals' going back to their countries; which might account for a reduction as well.
7.) Lack of earning potential requires many people to start living with a close relative, i.e. father, mother etc.... Once again it is kind of difficult to be hardcore when you have to answer for your very survival; from a person who can flip that persons world upside down again. Self Preservation.
8.) Being redundant. There is a huge increase in weapons sales. No criminal wants to go against someone who actually knows how to use a weapon.
9.) There has been suck talk about 'end of the world' talk over the past twelve months, that no one knows better than criminals what is at stake if this true. You forget, most criminals read the Bible and other inspirations from man about God. Even they do not want to go to hell, if 'Armageddon' is around the corner?
10.) There maybe less one on one action, and more 'gang related' activity. The Pensacola murders are a good example. They (gangs) maybe actually compiling in their forces for the 'big score'. That remains to be seen.
I wish studies that are reported are not done so, until they have compiled real data and not suppositions. Have a good day guys. See ya NYC.
Sorry for the lack of proofreading. I hope you're not a professor, because many of these guys on the board love to correct people's grammatical errors.
11.) People are walking around with less money, and criminals don't want to walk away with nothing.
12.) More people are walking around, instead of buying. There are more 'eyes' out there.
13.) Technology: Nearly everybody has a cellphone with a camera or recording device. It is easy to be captured on film.
14.) There are the same, if not more police presence on the street.
15.) The criminals are getting smarter and more savvy. There are an increase in cyber crimes and each of us needs to be very wary of our accounts.
If I can think of anything else, I'll add it. Have a good one guys.
The people of WDC are allowed to have guns legally now.
Result: less crime.
D'ya think.....?
Liberals! They just don't get it.
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