Dialogue-First Diplomacy Not Working

Juan Zarate: Global Crises In Iran And North Korea Expose Weakness Of Obama's Outreach

(CBS)  Juan Zarate is a CBS News consultant and former Deputy National Security Adviser for Combating Terrorism.

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The evolving crises in Iran and North Korea have now outpaced President Obama's diplomatic outreach. The prospect that direct dialogue with the regimes in Tehran and Pyongyang in the first instance could change their behavior has evaporated.

The Administration should now pivot to gain leverage against both regimes - whose primary interest is retaining a firm grip on power and whose own actions are leading to their further international isolation. This requires a shift in strategy and a clear-eyed view that dialogue without leverage cannot be successful.

The Obama Administration came into power with a policy to recast the international perception of American power and to offer direct dialogue with those willing to negotiate, including with rogue regimes. The problem is that events in North Korea and Iran have already outpaced this strategy, and continued devotion to the "dialogue-first" principle amidst changing circumstances has consequences. It may have slowed the Administration's willingness to respond in each case and may be impeding our ability to take full advantage of emerging opportunities to build leverage - along with our international partners - against both Iran and North Korea.

Chances of the open-hand producing results with Pyongyang faded with the North's blatant bellicosity. Though President Obama said the North's missile tests in April should be met with real consequences, there was no response of import. It was not until the series of U.N. sanctions violations - to include the nuclear test in May - and the harsh sentencing of two American journalists that the Administration pushed for the types of sanctions that might hurt the North Korean regime: cargo inspections and tighter financial sanctions.

In Iran, the regime answered the Administration's initial outreach with calls for American apologies and promises of further development of the nuclear program. This did not shift the Administration's policy, and now the dynamics on the ground in Iran - with the regime cracking down on protesters and its legitimacy fundamentally threatened from within - have further complicated the prospects of talks with Tehran.

The President's initial caution to the electoral protests was a realistic hedge that the power structure with whom the United States would need to negotiate - led by Ayatollah Khamanei and President Ahmedinejad - would remain in firm control, with the electoral dispute as a side show. If the protests could lead to a shift in the regime's approach to the West, the Administration calculated that dynamic was best served by not becoming a central protagonist and giving the hardliners the American bogey-man argument to taint the movement.

These initial responses - or lack thereof - were based on the notion that the prospect of dialogue should be preserved in the first instance. Aside from potentially appearing feckless and unprincipled in the face of direct challenges to our interests, this approach fails to recognize that dialogue is merely a tactic and cannot succeed without leverage. Leverage comes in many forms and can be used to challenge and constrain these regime's activities or convince regime leadership - via talks or otherwise - to change their behavior in a way that behooves our interests.

We must have our eyes wide open, taking advantage of opportunities to build leverage while understanding that these regimes most value their hold on power. At a time of tension within both countries' leadership, this presents opportunities to exploit fissures to our advantage.

In the case of North Korea, the regime's recalcitrance and illicit behavior should be used to maximum effect to drive, along with Japan and South Korea, public and private sector efforts to stop the North's international commercial activity critical to the development of their weapons and nuclear program, their financing, and potential proliferation.

The Administration appears now to have formulated a more coherent policy to squeeze the North, with the Navy tracking and turning back the North Korean vessel, Kang Nam, and the Treasury beginning its financial isolation campaign by warning of North Korea’s illicit financial behavior and sanctions evasion. We can do more with an international campaign to find and freeze leadership assets, which are used to buy loyalty, as a means of building further tension and suspicion within the leadership ranks.

Our approach to the changing dynamics on the ground in Tehran should find ways to sustain and empower the voices of opposition, as a vehicle to foment further dissent and the fractures within the regime. As noted by numerous commentators, this could take the form of enlisting the private sector and Web 2.0 technologies to connect the dissenters with each other and the world or a more aggressive international campaign of condemnation of the regime, taking advantage of European outrage as the regime continues its efficiently quiet crackdown. Added to this could be a fresh financial pressure campaign against Iranian banks and companies, while focusing on restricting Iranian oil imports and trade-related insurance.

At the same time, the Administration should consider quiet outreach to more moderate elements of the clerical establishment and a sustained strategy of even more direct dialogue with the Iranian public. The recent announcement that the Iranian election and new government are illegitimate by the Association of Researchers and Teachers of Qum, an influential group of Shia clerics, reflects a clear crack in the religious and ruling establishment. In combination with President Obama's moral voice, such pressure and assistance could serve to weaken the hardliners in the regime and force a fundamental rethinking of the policies most antithetical to U.S. interests.

At a time of weak Iranian regime legitimacy, the Administration needs to be acutely sensitive to inadvertently conferring international legitimacy through direct dialogue.

It is with a strengthened hand and leverage that we are more likely to see dialogue bear fruit, even though there is no guarantee that any strategy will result in rational responses from either regime. Blind adherence to the prospects of dialogue without looking for opportunities to create leverage will lead to missed opportunities and a weakened U.S. position at any negotiating table. Events with North Korea and Iran are already making this lesson clear and outpacing the Administration's dialogue-first diplomacy.

[CLoverNYC1]

This is what happens when a President believes his own press.

Barack Obama can't figure out why leaders of other nations aren't swooning under the power of his personal charisma and passionate rhetoric about "change!"

They want him to bow down, just like he did for the Saudis.

[nosmar-2009]

Obama has been a disaster so far on international relations - he has absolutely struck out on every goal he has had to date on each trip.
He is viewed as weak by the Arabs, unreliable by the Jews, a lightweoght by the Chinese, and Iran and N Korea view him as a joke.
Funny how other countries see him in the correct light where the Europeans and Americans are still looking through a hypnotic fog.
This man has lied to us - NOW we do need change

[impeachbhb]

Please quit blaming Obama. He inherited this mess from Bush, Clinton, Bush, Reagan,Carter,Nixon, Johnson, Kennedy,Eisenhower and Truman. Nothing is his fault nor ever will be his fault.

[Joe_NY_15]

Listen to yourself, you are so drunk on Barry-Berry Koolaid, you haven't a clue about reality......

"Nothing is his fault nor ever will be his fault." you say ?

Lack of responsibility is a cornerstone of Liberalism

[didserve]

More neocon babble!

go tell bill kristol to go back to israel and take you with him!

[andylance1]

Something can be said for a conciliatory approach to foreign policy. Last fall Madeline Albright said: Barack Obama believes we should talk to our enemies, to pursue direct and aggressive diplomacy with both North Korea and Iran. He lauded the North Korea deal as a step forward and has said we should continue down this fruitful path. This success in North Korea is, in fact, a vindication of the very approach to the world Obama has been calling for throughout his campaign.

Everyone can see now what a fruitful path we have had with North Korea.
Obama is busy going around the world and saying: Me, too, at the G-8 summit in Italy regarding climate change goals.

Obama went to the OAS meeting recently and said: Me, too, and now his administration is taking orders from Hugo Chavez regarding what happened in Honduras.

[smoknmirrors]

As the second greatest prophet said, "No one has ever had control over this world, don't you know?"
One day, when the immediacy of our paranoia passes and we are able to reflect on events with greater distance between what we wish and what we know, what we fear and what we hope, the world will discover the method in the madness we call the Obama Presidency. You are too close to see. The author's every wish is being pursued by Barack Obama at this very moment. He just isn't responsible for every move being made by every other player in the game. He can only persuade, cajole, entice or "bribe" the other players to move in the direction he has chosen as in our best interests. They have their own interests at stake. He doesn't control that either. And there is this constant, incessant noise from the sidelines, like a swarm of irritated bees intent upon protecting their own little hives. That's us. The Murphys of Murphys Law. I like Hank's Law better. "What will be, will be."

[wogerwabbit]

can't believe the bleep W T F

[wogerwabbit]

I see the neocon/moron solution is still endless war... I guess it really doesn't matter to you guys who we fight as long as we keep feeding the war profiteers our children while you keep you and yours safe at home. Armchair warriors.

I'm sure none of you guys have ever been to war and have no idea beyond your testosterone laden GI Joe doll dreams what it's really like... if you did, you'd want nothing to do with it ever again. Lead from the rear.

Yeah, you're so tough, you don't have to ask, you just tell the world what to do. Do it my way or we carpet bomb you. Neocon diplomacy.

Are there no rational adults around here? This ain't a football game where you paint yourselves up, cheer for the good guys and party hearty. It's not burly guys in pads and helmets banging into each other and having a great time in their prolonged childhood, it's someones son or daughter, husband or wife, or mother or father being vaporized by a howitzer shell... or losing limbs... or losing friends... and slowly losing their minds.

I'm sick of all you cowboys blowing off talking to these people. Why can't we just sit down with these losers and find out exactly *** is wrong with them? Lord knows, the Iranians have a beef with us after overthrowing their democratically elected government and giving them the Shah and his secret police. I can see their point of view to an extent. None of us are angels, but should at least aspire.

As the great prophet John Lennon said, give peace a chance.

[formrusmcsgt]

Juan Zarate: Global Crises In Iran And North Korea Expose Weakness Of Obama's Outreach
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What a load.

As if we're not at square one with both counties after dubya's threats and sabre-rattling for 8 years.....

[amabo-m]

Obama .true to his campaign promises pursues a conciliatory approach and is regaining much international support. We need european and russian support to effectively deal with N Korea and Iran.
Domestically he is showing excellent leadership with strong and fast action that is needed to get us out of the financial mess. It is naive to blame him if some details need adjustment ,the experts were and still are befuddled about finding the best way to solve this comp;ex problem. Extended studies would have delayed any corrective action and pushes us deeper in a hole. Hail to the chief!

[despido]

Russia will make a fool of Obama. Obama has already indicated he will sell out Europe in a hot minute - so he will get no support there. China will go their own way - they are a juggernaut that will roll over anyone that opposes them - just be thankful they only use us as a piggy bank and not target practice.

Domestically, Obama is pursuing EXACTLY the same actions on a National scale that have brought California to the verge of bankruptcy. The result will be the same, but of course on a national scale.

[cinoti]

If the comments here and in similar public forums are representative
of the mental acuity and maturity of this nation. We had all better give it up and accept the inevitable end of civilization as we have known it!
Get ready for wholesale riots and total disintegration. After all
if this is the best we have to offer. We don't have much. And we
will surely get what we deserve!(stupid me, for fighting in a U.S.
war and paying taxes for 45 years.. Stupid me for believing that
our country actually brought something good to the world.
Stupid me!)
See ya in the streets when the blood starts to flow. I know its what
you people want!

[rafterman1]

The problem is, it will take a generation or two to pass before people realize that the world of the 21st century is different than the cold war world of the 20th century and we can no longer bully others around without impunity. Other countries will stand up to us now and pursue their own agendas, just as we do ours. They no longer put up with our hypocrisy and our arrogance.

[rafterman1]

Eight years of Bush's "my way or the highway" got us nowhere and Obama tries outreach for six months and already they want to quit. I guess some Americans aren't happy unless America is in violent confrontation with someone.

[Joe_NY_15]

rafterman, or...maybe the weak all-talk diplomacy is "not working" as the article suggests....it's that simple....nobody brought up violent confrontations....just stating that the girlyman weak liberal talk-only nonsense is "Not Working".....get it...NOT WORKING

[rafterman1]

Then what do we do if not talk to our adversaries? All you Obama haters conveniently leave those recommendations out.

[fedup12]

Pre-emptive strike??? Thats what the war mongers want.

[Joe_NY_15]

by Joe_NY_15 July 8, 2009 9:32 AM PDT
Obama commented that Putin was "un-sentimental"
WHAT ???? What did the amateur community organizer expect from the former KGB agent, a sentimental liberal tree-hugging session ??
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by fedup12 July 8, 2009 10:26 AM PDT
WOW lots of NeoCon hate artists on this board. Ol Joe on the uber rant... Not happy until we are at war or have bad relations with the rest of the world.
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Excuse me for noticing that the community organizer was so concerned with the former KGB agent's being "un-sentimental"....whatever that means in weak girlyman liberal speak.

[geewheeez]

BUSH did not did crap either in 8 years, and we expect O to get it done in 6 months??? I guess we have more patience with BUSH, but none at all for anybody else.

[gmancubfan]

It's not Obama's fault that N. Korea acts like a crying baby. Under the Bush administration, we paid them millions of dollars for their promise to dismantle their nuclear weapons program. Bush played right into their hands by rewarding them with massive funding for their actions. Now they figure on doing the same with Obama. But remember who was the first to mishandle the situation. Obama inherited this mess along with a giant landfill of problems Bush helped create. Every day, I get on my knees and thank God that Bush is back in Texas splitting logs and feeding the herd, rather than trying to run our country with his crude and unrefined cowboy mentality.

[jules_999]

please get your facts straight - the first deal done with the N Koreans was signed by the Clinton administration so technically the "first to mishandle the situation" was Clinton.

[speakinup22]

"Dialogue-First Diplomacy Not Working - headline

Yeah, the press finally sees the light.


How's that "hope and change" workin' out for ya'll ?

[fedup12]

We still have hope and are patient for change. Cant do it over night dontchaknow!

[rafterman1]

Better than the hate and war of the last eight years.

[beaumuff]

Its hard to beleive the Russians where not to impressed with the man with the halo and walks on water.

[Joe_NY_15]

Obama commented that Putin was "un-sentimental"

WHAT ???? What did the amateur community organizer expect from the former KGB agent, a sentimental liberal tree-hugging session ??

[fedup12]

WOW lots of NeoCon hate artists on this board. Ol Joe on the uber rant... Not happy until we are at war or have bad relations with the rest of the world.

[GiveMeFreedom]

Hey fedup, maybe conservative realism is too much for your brain to handle! But keep talking. I am sure Jimmy II will make it big eventually. You will all be talking while Iran is nuking Israel and Russia is taking out the other countries. Hope you have a burqua to wear when all is said and done.

[Maryam11]

Thank you. I totally agree with you on how the administration should proceed at this time, given what we have learned post Iran election. It is painfully clear that the current hardline government will not truthfully negotiate with the West. They care most about maintaining power and having nuclear weapon cababilities would help them achieve that. They would never really give up that goal. Instead, they will lie and manipulate the head of western countries to buy time. US and EU countries should realize that there is no point in dialogue with Ahmadinejad anymore and such a move would only legitimize his government and further disappoint the millions of Iranians who are risking their lives for democracy. You have also mentioned some good suggestions as to how the west can help the democracy movement.

[despido]

Dialogue-First Diplomacy Not Working . . . .

No kidding.

[fedup12]

Like I said---

Has to be better than the Shoot First and Ask Questions Later Diplomacy of the past doesnt it.

That didnt work even more than talking isnt. :)

[toldyouso29]

One should ALWAYS try dialog first --if only to show the world one is willing to try to work diplomatically. If, or when dialog fails, as a country, we must be prepared and willing to go to tougher measures such as sanctions, military options and yes--even the draft if necessary. But it all starts with simply talking and trying to find middle ground--that way, when the proverbial sh%^ must hit the fan, no one can say that was the first thing America slung. Time for America gets back to not starting fights but definitely finishing them.

[despido]

Dialog with Iran failed 30 years ago with Jimmy Carter. To repeat the same and expect different results is insanity - or inexperience, or stupidity, or confusion.... take your pick.

[fedup12]

Why is it insane desperado??? We have different leaders, they have different leaders. Its a different time. Not to try something just because it didnt work once seems even more insane.

[despido]

fedup12:

It's insane because during those 30 years Iran has never waivered from it's intended mission of area domination and death to the West. While we have hoped for negotiations, talked, embargoed, cajoled, fretted, worried and hoped - Iran has methodically, unrelentingly continued in their quest. And now they are now longer 30 years away from attaining their goal - but only 1-3 years away. And Obama has given every indication - even promised - that we will not take action. Korea version 1.1