July 8, 2009
Dialogue-First Diplomacy Not Working
Juan Zarate: Global Crises In Iran And North Korea Expose Weakness Of Obama's Outreach
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Iran and North Korea have tested President Obama's global diplomacy agenda. (AP)
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Who's Who Iran's Election: Key Players A look at the most important figures in Iran's contested presidential election.
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Fast Facts North Korea Learn about the people, economy and history.
The evolving crises in Iran and North Korea have now outpaced President Obama's diplomatic outreach. The prospect that direct dialogue with the regimes in Tehran and Pyongyang in the first instance could change their behavior has evaporated.
The Administration should now pivot to gain leverage against both regimes - whose primary interest is retaining a firm grip on power and whose own actions are leading to their further international isolation. This requires a shift in strategy and a clear-eyed view that dialogue without leverage cannot be successful.
The Obama Administration came into power with a policy to recast the international perception of American power and to offer direct dialogue with those willing to negotiate, including with rogue regimes. The problem is that events in North Korea and Iran have already outpaced this strategy, and continued devotion to the "dialogue-first" principle amidst changing circumstances has consequences. It may have slowed the Administration's willingness to respond in each case and may be impeding our ability to take full advantage of emerging opportunities to build leverage - along with our international partners - against both Iran and North Korea.
Chances of the open-hand producing results with Pyongyang faded with the North's blatant bellicosity. Though President Obama said the North's missile tests in April should be met with real consequences, there was no response of import. It was not until the series of U.N. sanctions violations - to include the nuclear test in May - and the harsh sentencing of two American journalists that the Administration pushed for the types of sanctions that might hurt the North Korean regime: cargo inspections and tighter financial sanctions.
In Iran, the regime answered the Administration's initial outreach with calls for American apologies and promises of further development of the nuclear program. This did not shift the Administration's policy, and now the dynamics on the ground in Iran - with the regime cracking down on protesters and its legitimacy fundamentally threatened from within - have further complicated the prospects of talks with Tehran.
The President's initial caution to the electoral protests was a realistic hedge that the power structure with whom the United States would need to negotiate - led by Ayatollah Khamanei and President Ahmedinejad - would remain in firm control, with the electoral dispute as a side show. If the protests could lead to a shift in the regime's approach to the West, the Administration calculated that dynamic was best served by not becoming a central protagonist and giving the hardliners the American bogey-man argument to taint the movement.
These initial responses - or lack thereof - were based on the notion that the prospect of dialogue should be preserved in the first instance. Aside from potentially appearing feckless and unprincipled in the face of direct challenges to our interests, this approach fails to recognize that dialogue is merely a tactic and cannot succeed without leverage. Leverage comes in many forms and can be used to challenge and constrain these regime's activities or convince regime leadership - via talks or otherwise - to change their behavior in a way that behooves our interests.
We must have our eyes wide open, taking advantage of opportunities to build leverage while understanding that these regimes most value their hold on power. At a time of tension within both countries' leadership, this presents opportunities to exploit fissures to our advantage.
In the case of North Korea, the regime's recalcitrance and illicit behavior should be used to maximum effect to drive, along with Japan and South Korea, public and private sector efforts to stop the North's international commercial activity critical to the development of their weapons and nuclear program, their financing, and potential proliferation.
The Administration appears now to have formulated a more coherent policy to squeeze the North, with the Navy tracking and turning back the North Korean vessel, Kang Nam, and the Treasury beginning its financial isolation campaign by warning of North Korea’s illicit financial behavior and sanctions evasion. We can do more with an international campaign to find and freeze leadership assets, which are used to buy loyalty, as a means of building further tension and suspicion within the leadership ranks.
Our approach to the changing dynamics on the ground in Tehran should find ways to sustain and empower the voices of opposition, as a vehicle to foment further dissent and the fractures within the regime. As noted by numerous commentators, this could take the form of enlisting the private sector and Web 2.0 technologies to connect the dissenters with each other and the world or a more aggressive international campaign of condemnation of the regime, taking advantage of European outrage as the regime continues its efficiently quiet crackdown. Added to this could be a fresh financial pressure campaign against Iranian banks and companies, while focusing on restricting Iranian oil imports and trade-related insurance.
At the same time, the Administration should consider quiet outreach to more moderate elements of the clerical establishment and a sustained strategy of even more direct dialogue with the Iranian public. The recent announcement that the Iranian election and new government are illegitimate by the Association of Researchers and Teachers of Qum, an influential group of Shia clerics, reflects a clear crack in the religious and ruling establishment. In combination with President Obama's moral voice, such pressure and assistance could serve to weaken the hardliners in the regime and force a fundamental rethinking of the policies most antithetical to U.S. interests.
At a time of weak Iranian regime legitimacy, the Administration needs to be acutely sensitive to inadvertently conferring international legitimacy through direct dialogue.
It is with a strengthened hand and leverage that we are more likely to see dialogue bear fruit, even though there is no guarantee that any strategy will result in rational responses from either regime. Blind adherence to the prospects of dialogue without looking for opportunities to create leverage will lead to missed opportunities and a weakened U.S. position at any negotiating table. Events with North Korea and Iran are already making this lesson clear and outpacing the Administration's dialogue-first diplomacy.
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More From Opinion
Michelle Obama tells how her role as the First Lady has changed her perspective.
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See all 54 CommentsBarack Obama can't figure out why leaders of other nations aren't swooning under the power of his personal charisma and passionate rhetoric about "change!"
They want him to bow down, just like he did for the Saudis.
He is viewed as weak by the Arabs, unreliable by the Jews, a lightweoght by the Chinese, and Iran and N Korea view him as a joke.
Funny how other countries see him in the correct light where the Europeans and Americans are still looking through a hypnotic fog.
This man has lied to us - NOW we do need change
"Nothing is his fault nor ever will be his fault." you say ?
Lack of responsibility is a cornerstone of Liberalism
go tell bill kristol to go back to israel and take you with him!
Everyone can see now what a fruitful path we have had with North Korea.
Obama is busy going around the world and saying: Me, too, at the G-8 summit in Italy regarding climate change goals.
Obama went to the OAS meeting recently and said: Me, too, and now his administration is taking orders from Hugo Chavez regarding what happened in Honduras.
One day, when the immediacy of our paranoia passes and we are able to reflect on events with greater distance between what we wish and what we know, what we fear and what we hope, the world will discover the method in the madness we call the Obama Presidency. You are too close to see. The author's every wish is being pursued by Barack Obama at this very moment. He just isn't responsible for every move being made by every other player in the game. He can only persuade, cajole, entice or "bribe" the other players to move in the direction he has chosen as in our best interests. They have their own interests at stake. He doesn't control that either. And there is this constant, incessant noise from the sidelines, like a swarm of irritated bees intent upon protecting their own little hives. That's us. The Murphys of Murphys Law. I like Hank's Law better. "What will be, will be."
I'm sure none of you guys have ever been to war and have no idea beyond your testosterone laden GI Joe doll dreams what it's really like... if you did, you'd want nothing to do with it ever again. Lead from the rear.
Yeah, you're so tough, you don't have to ask, you just tell the world what to do. Do it my way or we carpet bomb you. Neocon diplomacy.
Are there no rational adults around here? This ain't a football game where you paint yourselves up, cheer for the good guys and party hearty. It's not burly guys in pads and helmets banging into each other and having a great time in their prolonged childhood, it's someones son or daughter, husband or wife, or mother or father being vaporized by a howitzer shell... or losing limbs... or losing friends... and slowly losing their minds.
I'm sick of all you cowboys blowing off talking to these people. Why can't we just sit down with these losers and find out exactly *** is wrong with them? Lord knows, the Iranians have a beef with us after overthrowing their democratically elected government and giving them the Shah and his secret police. I can see their point of view to an extent. None of us are angels, but should at least aspire.
As the great prophet John Lennon said, give peace a chance.
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What a load.
As if we're not at square one with both counties after dubya's threats and sabre-rattling for 8 years.....
Domestically he is showing excellent leadership with strong and fast action that is needed to get us out of the financial mess. It is naive to blame him if some details need adjustment ,the experts were and still are befuddled about finding the best way to solve this comp;ex problem. Extended studies would have delayed any corrective action and pushes us deeper in a hole. Hail to the chief!
Domestically, Obama is pursuing EXACTLY the same actions on a National scale that have brought California to the verge of bankruptcy. The result will be the same, but of course on a national scale.
of the mental acuity and maturity of this nation. We had all better give it up and accept the inevitable end of civilization as we have known it!
Get ready for wholesale riots and total disintegration. After all
if this is the best we have to offer. We don't have much. And we
will surely get what we deserve!(stupid me, for fighting in a U.S.
war and paying taxes for 45 years.. Stupid me for believing that
our country actually brought something good to the world.
Stupid me!)
See ya in the streets when the blood starts to flow. I know its what
you people want!
Obama commented that Putin was "un-sentimental"
WHAT ???? What did the amateur community organizer expect from the former KGB agent, a sentimental liberal tree-hugging session ??
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by fedup12 July 8, 2009 10:26 AM PDT
WOW lots of NeoCon hate artists on this board. Ol Joe on the uber rant... Not happy until we are at war or have bad relations with the rest of the world.
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Excuse me for noticing that the community organizer was so concerned with the former KGB agent's being "un-sentimental"....whatever that means in weak girlyman liberal speak.
Yeah, the press finally sees the light.
How's that "hope and change" workin' out for ya'll ?
WHAT ???? What did the amateur community organizer expect from the former KGB agent, a sentimental liberal tree-hugging session ??
No kidding.
Has to be better than the Shoot First and Ask Questions Later Diplomacy of the past doesnt it.
That didnt work even more than talking isnt. :)
It's insane because during those 30 years Iran has never waivered from it's intended mission of area domination and death to the West. While we have hoped for negotiations, talked, embargoed, cajoled, fretted, worried and hoped - Iran has methodically, unrelentingly continued in their quest. And now they are now longer 30 years away from attaining their goal - but only 1-3 years away. And Obama has given every indication - even promised - that we will not take action. Korea version 1.1
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