OPEC Frets Over Drop in Global Demand

Group Says it Will Take Four Years to Return to 2008 Levels

(AP)  Demand for OPEC crude has fallen so sharply because of the world recession that it will take another four years to recover to 2008 levels, the 12-nation oil producers' organization predicted Wednesday.

The forecast was one of several profiled by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in its oil supply and demand outlook to 2030 reflecting the deep crimp in the world's appetite for oil because of falling international industrial production and related developments that have lessened crude use.

OPEC meets more than a third of the world's annual oil demand, which the International Energy Agency has put at nearly 86 million barrels a day for 2008 - about 2.5 million barrels more than for recession-ridden 2009.

In its annual report, the organization said the world would need 87.9 million barrels of crude a day by 2013 - nearly 6 million barrels less than previously expected. Of that, said the report, OPEC would need to produce 31 million barrels a day, compared to a daily 31.2 million barrels last year.

Some of the reduced need was due to the increased use of biofuels and other energy sources, said the report. Still, it suggested that much of the lessened demand was due to the global economic downturn.

Still, the 250-page report said that energy use up to 2030 was set to rise "under all scenarios," with oil and other fossil fuels continuing to represent the largest slice of the energy pie.

"Fossil fuels will contribute "more than 80 percent to the global energy mix over this period," said the report. "And oil will continue to play the leading role to 2030."

Like oil suppliers in general, OPEC was hard hit by the plunge in demand starting last year as the world recession spread and deepened, said the report. It predicted that demand for OPEC crude, after falling this year will "rise slowly over the medium term, returning back to 2008 levels by around 2013."

It also said that developing countries would account for any increase in demand, with industrialized countries continuing to be more harshly effected by the economic downturn and its protracted aftermath.

Demand from industrialized countries, which peaked in 2005, is expected to fall from a daily 47.5 million barrels last year to 45.5 million barrels a day by 2010 and will likely remain at that level up to 2013, said the report.

While it named developing countries as "the main source of demand," the report suggested that could not make up for the stagnation in U.S. and other major consumers. Beyond forecasting that that by 2013, the world's overall appetite for crude will be 5.7 million barrels a day lower than it had forecast last year, it and noted that daily demand had already slumped by more than 4 million barrels already this year.

In developing countries, oil consumption was expected to rise by 23 million barrels a day between 2008 and 2030 to reach a daily 56 million barrels, with "almost 80 percent of the net growth in oil demand ... in developing Asia," said the report.

"Nevertheless, per capita oil use in developing countries will remain far below that of the developed world," said the forecast." "For example, oil use per person in North America will still be more than 10 times that of South Asia."

[Snerdguy]

If we had better leaders, our country could do many things to reduce our need for foreign oil even more. Many homes and industries waste tremendous amount of energy because they are not being properly examined and corrections are not being made. The President talks a good line. So what is being done?

[whitemale08]

If we went back to a Bretton Woods fixed-exchange-rate system then we could trade oil with other sovereign nations with what we have or produce.

Unfortunately, we've been purposely looted by BIG FAILED BANKS on Wall Street/City of London and left with the near incapabality to trade among sovereign nations so we remain dependant on BIG FAILED BANKS like the 3rd world is enslaved to IMF/World Parasites.

[fiberglass3]

The rapid rise in gasoline prices this year has only held back the chance of a rapid economic recovery. Many will argue, that it was the high price of oil that lead us to this global economic downturn.

I believe that electric is the futue for transportation.

[sean58z]

Why purchase petroleum from OPEC? Many nations in Central and South America lease oil tracts. The off-shore oil reserves are immense. There is no reason to buy from the cartel. They beg for a return to the $3 or $4 price for a gallon of gasoline.

[zonkzilla]

The arrogant fools act as if electric vehicles, super hybrids, and hydrogen will not be a major part of US transportation.
Volkswagen just announced that they will produce an electric car that will get 450 miles per charge and will cost $2,000 more than the gasoline version. Several car companies in Europe will be selling cars that get 150 MPG next year. Volkswagen also has plans to sell a fueled car that gets 200 MPG next year.
When you add the new nuclear power plants under construction, the super mileage cars coming next year, the electric cars on the way, the lifestyle driving changes brought on by the $4.00 a gallon gas, anyone can clearly see oil prices will never return or sustain their manipulated levels.
Oil is dying, soon it will be dead as a source of fuel.
Let OPEC think they can continue to violate world trade laws by manipulating prices and holding back supply, it really doesn't matter. When OPEC raised oil prices to record levels almost overnight for record profits they sealed their doom along with the major oil companies.

[u-r-right]

Drown in it! Bring on the regulation and get us back to decent prices then maybe people will travel.

[Livinontheedge]

They need to worry the people of the US will not pay those high prices again.