Is Iran Heading Toward A Military Coup?

Abbas Milani: Ayatollah Khamenei's Massive Miscalculation About The Extent Of His Power

(CBS)  Abbas Milani is the Hamid and Christina Moghadam Director of Iranian Studies at Stanford University where he is also a research fellow at the Hoover Institution. His last book is Eminent Persians..

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The Iranian regime is currently facing one of the greatest challenges of its 30-year history. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei--whose rule has been absolute and whose words have been the law of the land--is facing the most public challenge to his authority. His two decades since succeeding Ayatollah Khomeini have been defined by a tendency to keep his options open, a verbal dexterity that allowed him to skirt tough political positions, and an appearance of impartiality in Iran's fierce factional feuds. His caution has been the key to his success and survival.

But Khamenei has thrown this caution to the wind by unabashedly favoring Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Four years ago, his support was instrumental in getting the little-known Ahmadinejad elected president. Even as criticism of the president has been on the rise in the country over the past year, Khamenei reportedly promised Ahmadinejad and his cabinet four more years at the helm.

The ayatollah failed to recognize the mounting tension over this month's presidential election--what former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani described in a pre-election letter to him as a seething "volcano" of discontent. Even Sobhe-Sadeq, the political organ of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, warned in a lead editorial that the opposition's use of the color green had become dangerously similar to the kind of "color revolution" that dethroned governments in Ukraine, Lebanon, and Georgia. (Khamenei had even commissioned a group of scholars three years ago to investigate the evolution of these "color revolutions.")

Only hours after the polls closed, Khamenei issued a statement urging everyone to support the supposedly reelected president. Khamenei seems to have underestimated Ahmadinejad's opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, who has proved willing to defy, if not challenge, Khamenei's dictates. Following Mousavi's lead, angry demonstrators swiftly took to the streets, with protests erupting in major cities and universities across the country. On Monday, June 15, hundreds of thousands of Iranians flooded the streets of Tehran to protest the election results.

What makes this moment different from past incidents of confrontation between the regime and the people is that, this time, many pillars of the regime are part of the opposition. Aside from Mousavi, who was prime minister for eight years, Rafsanjani, former president Mohammad Khatami, former speaker of the parliament Mehdi Karubi, and many other past ministers and undersecretaries are now leading the movement demanding new elections. Moreover, since the demonstrators come from all walks of life, it is more difficult than in the past to accuse them of immaturity or youthful impertinence, or of falling prey to the designs of the "Great Satan."

Recognizing the growing tide of popular discontent, Khamenei blinked. He indirectly conceded that the election--which he had previously described as a divinely designed victory for the Islamic regime--might have been rigged. The twelve-man Guardian Council--which he appointed to "carefully" look into the allegations of fraud--will likely follow Khameini's lead in their ruling. The question is how cowed the cleric will be in the face of powerful and persistent opposition.

The regime still has the capacity to contain the disgruntled demonstrators and maybe even co-opt their leadership. But the majestic power of large peaceful crowds, tasting the joys of victory embodied in acts of civil disobedience, and brought together by the power of technologies beyond the regime's control, is sure to beget larger, more confident, and more disciplined crowds. When people defied Khamenei's orders by gathering en masse on Monday, the regime's armor of invincibility--so central to the regime's authoritarian control--was cracked. Without it, the regime cannot survive, and reestablishing it can come only at the price of great bloodshed.

But if Khamenei wants a crackdown of this magnitude, he will have to turn to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)--a move that brings its own political costs. The IRGC was created by Khomeini shortly after the Islamic revolution as a more ideological and loyal alternative to the traditional military. The IRGC gradually became a force in its own right, developing its own air force, intelligence, officer academy, and think tank. Many commanders started companies that quickly dominated the economy by winning major government contracts. Today, a substantial number of provincial governors, mayors, cabinet ministers, undersecretaries, ambassadors, and managers of major state companies are from the IRGC's ranks.

The IRGC has largely accepted the leadership of the clergy and Khamenei's role as commander in chief. But while Khomeini strictly kept them out of politics, Khamenei has encouraged them to get involved in his political battles. In his eight-year tug-of-war with the reformist movement led by Khatami, Khamenei used the IRGC more than once to suppress Iran's rapidly developing civil society and student movement. The most egregious example of this militarization of politics came in the 2005 presidential election, when Khamenei, worried about a possible Rafsanjani victory, reportedly ordered IRGC members to vote for Ahmadinejad and take members of their family with them to the polls. The rise of Ahmadinejad, himself once a member of the IRGC and reportedly an engineer in its infamous Al-Quds Brigade, has further encouraged the IRGC to seek an increasing share of political power.

It is difficult to imagine the IRGC quelling the current protests and then simply turning power over to the clergy. If a political compromise cannot be reached between the regime and the opposition, and the IRGC is used in suppressing the protests, its commanders would likely expect a bigger role in the government. It is even conceivable that faced with irresolution among the clergy, they will act on their own, and establish a military dictatorship that uses Islam as its ideological veneer--similar to Pakistan under Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq.

Khamenei thus finds himself in a difficult situation as a result of his incautious gambit with Ahmadinejad. Whether he gives more power to the IRGC or to the opposition, there is little chance that he will emerge from the current crisis with his supremacy intact.

[mtoc]

there is little chance of a coup. Iran clergy leaders and Guards with the help of imported Hamas thugs can put down such an attempt. I dont think Iranians want a coup but a more elightened kind of government with emphasis on economy and justice. if Irans leaders do not respond with significant change its only a matter of time for a revolutionary coup. if Iranians want change they will have to shed their own blood to get it. there are too many other problems in the rest of the world for others to come to their aid. sad but true!

[ubrew12]

Support single payer health care. It cost HALF what our current disastrous system costs, and provides BETTER healthcare, for EVERYBODY.

I'm posting here because CBS is afraid to post any story related to the most important issue of our day (other than the Wall Street craziness), which is the healthcare issue.

[Sloughfoot]

Lame excuse for not posting in the proper site.

[curiously1]

whitemale08. Your attempt in degrading this freedom movement is vain. Iran is the 3rd largest world oil producing country in the world, and yet, they have 40% unemployment. The majority of their national resources are going towards building a totally unnecessary military power that, had it not been for having a the stupidest leaders in the world, would be used to build future for their people. The way I look at it, you're either bias towards the islamic regime or completely uninformed.

[whitemale08]

Iran does not have 40% un-employment, it's more like 12 - 14% (according to Wall Street Journal).

An I'm not 'degrading' this freedom movement, I'm glad they are protesting.

The fact that Iran is the '3rd largest world oil produucing country' is why the British Empire wants to use the protestors as excuse for military intervention so they can get privatize their central bank and have them beg the IMF/World Parasites for credit-lines to import 'fissile material' for their nuclear power plants.

Now you obviously don't know who the enemy is, and it's definitely not Ahmedinijad, and you apparently do not know how the Anglo-Dutch financial system of private-central banks works.

So until you do your homework and learn how the system works instead of believing everything the BBC or CBS News says, you will continue to be mis-informed and mis-lead by Corporatists Masters that have looted the United States.

[whitemale08]

to Lawyers-Guns-Money,

The one that is ignorant is you.

I didn't say that what is happening in Iran is not organic, what I said was: "If there is a coup, you can blame it on Wall Street/City of London".

I would like to see the Persians come out of the Medieval Period of religous clerics running around telling people how to dress and behave but let their people figure out the best way to do that.

What I don't want to see is for the British to use the United States military as a weapon to kill a bunch of people in Iran so Wall Street/City of London can get a private-central-bank installed to start the looting.

Now maybe you are in favor of private-central-banks, but I abhorr them and wish the day when they will be done away with around the world so nations can go back to being sovereign and develop their economies for the benefits of their peoples not George Soros and Warren Buffet to make money of selling cheeseburgers @McDonalds in Iran.

[Sloughfoot]

Poor white "BOY"

[whitemale08]

Can you prove that or you're just spewing your old BS and nonsense?


Of course, look at the history of British Petroleum put the Shah in over the democraticly elected leader back in the 70's because he ran on the platform of 'nationalizing' their oil.

And as far as credit-default swaps are concerned, look around you, do you think that worthless credit-default swaps and rating agencies giving sub-prime MBS (mortgage backed securities) was un-intentional?

If you do then you are sooo naive.

This how banksters on Wall Street/City of London works...they control the money 'printing press' by installing private-central-banks to over extend credit and then bankrupt the country so the taxpayer has to go bankrupt to bailout the financiers.

It's not just a conspiracy, it's standard practice that comes right out of the heart of the British East India Company.

This is what the British Empire does, it trades everything including human beings like slaves and drugs so it can loot sovereign nation states and ravage and pillage economies around the world.

While England is only a component of the British Empire, it was once the center because it's just an island, with no natural resources to export.

The British, in particular the monarchy and the financiers, didn't want to do physical labor, like other countries must do if they don't have natural resources to export.

Instead they sat around designing ways to con mankind like Adam Smith and his 'invisible hand' to trick peoples out of their possesions and natural resources.

This how our present day system is designed.

Now if we go back to the American system based upon Alexander Hamilton, we would have a far different economic system, one based on 'development' and 'creativity' of the human being...a soveregin-credit-system that says only Congress can 'utter' credit and under the leadership of a President duly elected would use that credit to build the nation and its economy for all human beings.

Right now, the system we have is based off the British principal of 'sitting around, speculating on human behaviour so you can trick them and loot their assets'.

The Persians used to be an empire and they can smell one a mile away, whether it be obvious to us or not. The British Fiat-Currency Empire is still an empire and the Persians know it!

[Sloughfoot]

You are certainly full of it.

[whitemale08]

If there is a coup, you can blame the Wall Street/City of London in spreading the propaganda and funding opposition groups both here in the West and in Iran.

Instead of allowing a revolution happen organicly, the financiers of the world can't wait to get their hands on Iran, and privatize their oil and stick a private-central-bank into their sovereign economic system so it can loot the Persian people like it has all over the world.

The British Empire of Worthless Derivatives and Credit-Default Swaps says: "If they [Iran] will not reform peacefully then through military conflict they will submit to our [dead] financial system."

[cs4466]

I don't know about that. Most people I know would be happy if they never heard the word "Iran" again in their lifetimes.

[-Lawyers-Guns-n-Money-]

Your ignorance is seethingly evident concerning the wishes of the Iranian people. No government is fanning the flames of this uprising and it IS organic. There are, however, sympathetic PRIVATE CITIZENS, even in this country, that are aiding thier cause by allowing their computers to be used as proxy servers to exchange information.

This ain't no tea party.

[rhs648]

The President of Iran is not without blame. He appears as a troublemaker and provocateur who has alienated much of the western world. Further, his denial of the holocaust makes hime look like a fool to many people throuhout the world.

[Sloughfoot]

Poor white "Boy" your stretch of the imagination is elastic.