North Korea: Extreme But Not Crazy

(CBS)  David Straub is acting director of Korean studies at Stanford's Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and a former State Department Korean affairs director.

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In recent months, North Korea has put on trial two young American journalists working for former Vice President Al Gore's Current TV, launched a long-range rocket, and tested its second nuclear device. It has renounced the Beijing Six-Party nuclear talks and the 1953 Korean armistice agreement. It will likely soon fire another long-range rocket and may test a third nuclear device and stage limited military attacks against South Korea.

The regime's actions are a source of serious concern. North Korea might transfer nuclear weapons technology to rogue states or terrorist groups. It has long sold its missiles to many countries in the troubled Middle East and South Asia, and two years ago the Israelis destroyed a nuclear facility that the North Koreans were building in Syria, possibly in coordination with Iran.

North Korea's pursuit of reliable nuclear weapons and the long-range missiles with which to launch them constitutes a direct threat not only to the United States but even more so to U.S. allies Japan and South Korea. The Japanese and South Koreans may eventually feel forced to build their own nuclear arsenals, which could destroy the balance of power with China in East Asia.

Pyongyang has often engaged in provocative behavior, but lately the pace and tone of its threats have worsened considerably. After suffering a stroke last fall, North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il seems to have begun the process of naming his 26-year-old third son, Kim Jong-un, as his successor. The nuclear and rocket tests may have been aimed at boosting nationalistic enthusiasm for the move. Even in North Korea there may be those who question the legitimacy of yet another dynastic succession there.

But while extreme and anachronistic, North Korean leaders are not irrational. Fundamentally, they feel they must have a nuclear "deterrent," as they call it, to re-balance their relationship with South Korea. North Korean leaders believe theirs to be the legitimate Korean regime on the peninsula, but they know that democratic South Korea is decades ahead of them, economically, diplomatically, and in conventional military terms.

Information about North Korea is scarce but two decades of dealing with North Korea have given American policymakers a much better understanding of the regime. The North's brinkmanship playbook is now well known, and the Obama administration is determined not to play that game anymore. It has made clear it is willing to deal fairly with North Korea but that it will increase diplomatic, financial, and military pressures on the regime until it agrees to abandon its nuclear weapons program.

The United States will need to proceed very carefully. There is no perfect North Korea policy, no silver bullet that will suddenly end all of the challenges the regime poses. Although North Korea is basically a failing country, its artillery arrayed along the Demilitarized Zone just north of Seoul could cause hundreds of thousands of casualties there. Over the past decades, the North Koreans have come to believe that they almost always win when they engage in a game of chicken with the United States and South Korea. They will almost certainly continue their provocations until they think they have won the latest match.

The United States and its allies must game-out the many possible scenarios on the Korean Peninsula and be prepared for continuing North Korean provocations, something previous U.S. administrations have not done well. The aim should be gradually to limit North Korean room for maneuver and eventually force them to abandon their nuclear weapons and long-range missile programs. At the same time, the United States should ignore calls for drastic steps that risk war on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea's nuclear and rocket programs are still primitive; the regime is weak. There is still time for stronger and smarter diplomacy - including both sticks and carrots - to work.
By David Straub

[Crazy-92]

You all should get that, North Korea is building nukes,
for what, destroy us of course. Think about it, they're making
a long range missiles so it can reached us and a short range that can
reached and hit Japan - our allies, and the other allies within us. At least twenty missiles tested by the NK, when they're satisfied, you all
cross your fingers, U.S might not be able to protect us then, for what I think.

[Crazy-92]

You all should get that, North Korea is building nukes,
for what, destroy us of course. Think about it, they're making
a long range missiles so it can reached us and a short range that can
reached and hit Japan - our allies, and the other allies within us. At least twenty missiles tested by the NK, when they're satisfied, you all
cross your fingers, U.S might not be able to protect us then, for what I think.

[cbsantispin]

The North Koreans are the Somali Pirates at the nation level, I guess we'll just have to wait and see what the asking ransom is!

[cbsnews_viewer]

Stronger and smarter diplomacy? Interesting, but lets look at history.
-Intense Wars: Iraq (2 times), Serbia and other smaller countries, and of course Taliban led Afghanistan.
-Axis of Evil : 3 countries: N. Korea, Iran, and Iraq (taken over in 21 days) named.
-Communism Eastern Europe (they fell) vs Communism in Asia (China prospered)
-Nuclear Weapons (Israel gets them without NPT treaty, South Africa with Israeli help gets them/SA give them up)
-Secret bombing (Syrian nuclear) via Israelis 2008
-Pakistani and Indian Nuclear Proliferation.
- China, China, China. Communists still strongly in power and courted by US because they buy up debt.
-War and War on Terror Fatigue in the United States.
-Economic Crisis
--"North Korea lacks the industrial capacity to build large numbers of long-ranged missiles. They will not be able to build so many weapons as to become a strategic factor in the region. But I have to acknowledge that they do pose a threat to South Korea both through short-range missiles, and the possibility of using the nuclear weapons in the South, even though there are just a few, or artillery from the North to the South. That would be the end of the North regime if they were to attack the South, but they still have that capacity" says .Douglas H. Paal, former *SENIOR* CIA analyst.

[bajajohn1]

The little North Korean God wants to join the Big Boy Club. He claims he wants nuclear capability as a deterrent against South Korea but only because WE have nukes. The Chinese have Nukes and Little Kim has a huge ego problem. For once agreement can be had on this boards. If they are weak and seek nuclear capability, why are we waiting for that deadly scenario to occur? Surely, the idea of a pre-emptive war has truly been tainted by the falsehoods under the Bush Administration. Are out hands now tied and where are the thoughts of our area or theatre allies?

[erasmus111]

It's time the world stops deluding itself and actually do something about NK.
Posted by incog-nito at 5:32 PM : Jun 8, 2009

I agree!!

[stuwerb]

I have never held a job with the US State Dept., but I respectfully disagree. The N. Korean regime is crazy. Allowing most of their population to starve IS crazy. Pursuing WMDs that have been a major cause, and add to their humanitarian problem, and threaten peaceful nations such as Japan and S. Korea IS crazy. However, I would concede that the N. Korean regime is not COMPLETELY crazy. But, then again, there are few absolutes in this world, so what is the point?

[YrSoWrong]

We could send them a tribute of seven young men and seven young women each year for the Minotaur to feast upon. It's a document called "The MInotaur Plan" in that folder marked "Things for the Government to do When it's Weak and Frightened".

[zoopster1]

Dang typos. I meant you DO NOT leave a shooting war half-finished. Too bad there isn't a post edit option.

[zoopster1]

This line struck me: "North Korea?s nuclear and rocket programs are still primitive; the regime is weak. " Is the author suggesting we wait for them to get stronger before we act?? Or this line: "...the United States should ignore calls for drastic steps that risk war on the Korean Peninsula." Excuse me, but the peninsula is already AT WAR. The 1953 armistice was only a cease-fire, not a peace treaty. It declared an end to the fighting but did not address the fundamental issues that led to war in the first place. The war is still ongoing until those issues are addressed. And now Kim is grooming another crackpot despot to take his place, so that the cycle will begin once again after he is gone.

See now why we invaded Iraq and put an end to the Hussein regime once and for all? The same rules apply here. You do leave a shooting war half-finished. Kim il-Sung's regime was never held to account for invading the South in 1950, and that was a grave mistake that we are still regretting to this day.

We can try some diplomacy here, but since they have 2 American citizens our options are basically either: a) allow the North a political "win" at the expense of our own humiliation; or b) military operations designed to free our citizens and punish the North, which could of course result in retaliation against the South.

I am all for the simplest possible solution. Let diplomacy work for a few weeks so we can say we tried. Then deliver an ultimatum: free the Americans within 72 hours or risk a nuclear attack. Any aggression against the South will result in the complete annihilation of the North Korean state. No further negotiation will occur, and no attempts at blackmail or delay will be tolerated.

Works for me.