Census: Minority Population Growth Slows

(AP)  Deterred by immigration laws and the lackluster economy, the population growth of Hispanics and Asians in the U.S. has slowed unexpectedly, causing the government to push back estimates on when minorities will become the majority by as much as a decade.

Census data released Thursday also showed that fewer Hispanics were migrating to suburbs and newly emerging immigrant areas in the Southeast, including Arkansas, Tennessee and Georgia, staying put instead in traditional gateway locations such as California.

The nation's overall minority population continues to rise steadily, adding 2.3 percent in 2008 to 104.6 million, or 34 percent of the total population. But the slowdown among Hispanics and Asians continues to shift conventional notions on when the tipping point in U.S. diversity will come - estimated to occur more than three decades from now. Black growth rates remain somewhat flat.

Thirty-six states had lower Hispanic growth in 2008 compared with the year before. The declines were in places where the housing bubble burst, such as Nevada and Arizona, which lost construction jobs that tend to attract immigrants.

Other decreases were seen in new immigrant destinations in the Southeast, previously seen as offering good manufacturing jobs in lower-cost cities compared to the pricier Northeast. In contrast, cities in California, Illinois and New Jersey showed gains.

In Arkansas, manufacturing and poultry companies have cut hours and workers, leaving a growing number of Hispanics unable to cover their mortgage payments, said Maribel Tapia, a housing counselor in Fayetteville, Ark. Fathers are moving out of state, where other relatives have lines on menial jobs that support the families they leave behind, she said. Police in northwest Arkansas created an immigration task force with the help of U.S. immigration agents.

"I don't think it's more likely they're going back to Mexico or El Salvador or wherever they're from," she said. "They're just calling different family members in different states and asking around about work. They just pack up and move."

The political effects can be high. Minorities turned out in record numbers last November to vote, largely for Democrat Barack Obama, and Hispanic groups are now flexing their growing clout in future elections as they push immigration reform.

More than a dozen states also stand to gain or lose House seats after the 2010 census depending on last-minute shifts in population.

"Not just whites are staying put, but minorities are staying put and immigrants are staying put," said Mark Mather, associate vice president of the nonprofit Population Reference Bureau, citing in part a declining economy that has locked the U.S. population largely in place.

"I was surprised the drop in Hispanic growth rates wasn't bigger given the decline in immigration," he said. "Government policy will certainly have a major effect on future race and ethnic composition if Congress takes some action on immigration reform."

The Census Bureau projected last August that white children will become the minority in 2023 and the overall white population will follow in 2042. The agency now says it will recalculate those figures, typically updated every three to four years, because they don't fully take into account anti-immigration policies after the September 2001 terror attacks and the current economic crisis.

The new projections, expected to be released later this year, could delay the tipping point for minorities by 10 years, given the current low rates of immigration, David Waddington, the Census Bureau's chief of projections, said in a telephone interview.

"Policies changed," he said, in explaining why the scientific estimates were no longer valid.

According to the latest data, the percentage growth of Hispanics slowed from 4.0 percent in 2001 to 3.2 percent last year; their slowed population growth would have been greater if it weren't for their high fertility - nearly 10 births for every death.

Asians also slowed their population increases from 3.7 percent in 2001 to about 2.5 percent. Hispanics and Asians still are the two fastest-growing minority groups, making up about 15 percent and 4.4 percent of the U.S. population, respectively.

Blacks, who comprise about 12.2 percent of the population, have increased at a rate of about 1 percent each year. Whites, with a median age of 41, have increased very little in recent years due to low birth rates and an aging boomer population.

The migration shift could continue for a while, said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, citing the bursting of an unprecedented housing bubble in 2005-2006 that is helping reshape the economy.

"What this means is that the idea of creating new Asian and Hispanic enclaves in different parts of the United States will undergo a bit of a wall," said Frey. "Those staying in these enclaves will be competing for jobs with long-term residents, while others will return to social support systems in major gateways."

Six U.S. counties saw their minority populations become the majority, including Orange County, Fla., the nation's 35th most populous county that is home to Orlando. Webster County in Georgia was majority-minority in 2007 but reverted back to white majority in 2008.

In all, about 309 of the nation's 3,142 counties, or one in 10, have minority populations greater than 50 percent. Other counties that become majority-minority in 2008 were Stanislaus in California; Finney in Kansas; Warren in Mississippi; and Edwards and Schleicher counties in Texas.

Other findings:

There are 48 majority Hispanic counties nationally; the top 10 were all in Texas. The gateway cities of Los Angeles, New York, Miami, Houston and Chicago had the greatest number of Hispanics.

Seventy-seven counties are majority-black; all were in the South. Atlanta edged past Chicago in the number of blacks, ranking second after New York City. They were followed by Washington and Philadelphia.

Honolulu County, Hawaii, was the only majority Asian county in the nation. New York City had the highest population of Asians, surpassing Los Angeles. Asians also numbered the most in San Francisco; San Jose, Calif.; and Chicago.

California, the nation's most populous state, also had the most number of whites. Maine and Vermont had the highest share of whites at 95 percent each.

In Nashville, Tenn., Maria Lopez, a 49-year-old Mexican immigrant, said business is down 80 percent at the restaurant she runs, and 10 to 15 people come in a day asking for jobs, mostly Hispanics.

Lopez said she had to cut back on the amount of money she was sending back home to her family in Mexico. Although she's been in the U.S. for 13 years, she is thinking about returning to Mexico.

"I am just making enough to pay the lease and the bills," Lopez said through a translator. "If things continue like that, I will leave."

The 2008 census estimates used local records of births and deaths, tax records of people moving within the U.S., and census statistics on immigrants. The figures for "white" refer to those whites who are not of Hispanic ethnicity. Since the government considers "Hispanic" an ethnicity, people of Hispanic descent can be of any race.

[texasbeta]

So when the white people finally do become the minority, does that mean they get all the free stuff that goes along with it ?
Posted by luke_4u

Affirmative actions and sliding benefits are not due to one being part of a minority group...but to compensate in relation to starting positions, those who have been directly held down for several hundred years. Don't be an idiot. Don't be a racist. Actually try to use your freaking brain once in a while. People are not rewarded just for being in a minority.

[frankinaz]

"I don't understand why people use the terms "illegal aliens" and "criminals" interchangeably and equate them the same value. Somehow comparing someone who crossed the border for the purpose of better economic opportunities and those who have murdered someone are not the same thing.
No, the crimes are different in their levels of severity and punishment.
"I don't understand why people use the terms "illegal aliens" and "criminals" interchangeably and equate them the same value."
However, what part of the word "illegal" is not understood? Illegal immigrants are breaking laws to enter, work and remain in the U. S. illegally.
"Hitler did this by blaming Jews for everything that was wrong with Germany, and you all know what happened next."
Yes, but virtually all the Jews of Germany were legal citizens of that country, and for the most part, not entering Germany illegally in droves.

[luke_4u]

So when the white people finally do become the minority, does that mean they get all the free stuff that goes along with it ?

[budmag06]

Less votes for Obama!

[vagabundocosmico]

I can already sense it.

The headlines read: "Minority Population Growth Slows" and all the racist and extremist groups dance with joy.

The anti-immigration movement pats itself in the back, and promises complete anhilation of illegal immigrants.

However, during all this hoopla, I can't help but think, where does all this animosity and hate originate from, and how come it has become so pervasive in US culture?

One only has to turn on the tv and observe how vicious some news anchors and political zealots relish attacking those who can't defend themselves.

I mean, it's not like mexicans appeared on the scene all of a sudden.
Mexican's have been crossing the borders way before Texas, California, Arizona, and New Mexico became part of US territory.

Has anybody bothered to read "The Treaty of Guadalupe" after the US annexed those states into the union?

Blaming someone is always the easy way for people to deal with their frustrations, and I can safely assume all ethnic groups have had their share in "Americana". Native Americans, Africans, Mexicans, Chinese, Japanese, Irish, Germans, Italians, women, and gays have been all targeted and ridiculed at some point by the majority of US citizens at one point of another in US history.

So how come Mexicans are taking all of the blame nowadays for everything that is wrong with the US?

I didn't see no mexicans take part on any of the terrorist attacks or discovered that any of the terrorist come through the US-Mexico border ilegally.

Yet politicians and right wing nuts like the "Minutemen" want to re-create another version of the Berlin Wall and make the world believe there is an invasion happening.
.
What is wrong with these people?

Where did the "American compassion" and "American dream" go?

I don't understand why people use the terms "illegal aliens" and "criminals" interchangeably and equate them the same value.

Somehow comparing someone who crossed the border for the purpose of better economic oportunities and those who have murdered someone are not the same thing.

But I guess it is always easy to demonize and dehumanize someone to the point where they no longer matter and can thus be treated like animals.

Hitler did this by blaming Jews for everything that was wrong with Germany, and you all know what happened next.

The Lou Dobbs, and the Bill O'Reilleys of this world are quickly starting to look like the Goebbels and Himmler's of Germany.

America needs hope and creativity. Not whiners and blamers.

[armyoftwelve]

I know why the black population is slowing down. We are taking all the white girls away. Don't worry white men, there are still Asian women.
Posted by blog_fever2

Yes, well as I said before...someone has to soak up all the fat, ugly white girls that the white guys don't want. You think the white boys should go to asians?? They already have a superiority complex, breeding with asian girls will just make them smarter.
You've got some stupid ideas.
The other side of the coin suggests that black women are giving up on black men.

[vagabundocosmico]

"Here goes the diatribe again. Blame the immigrants, scapegoat the world for your insecurities and on... the same posters who now blame immigrants for all the dirty laundry, are the same people who condemn over 1 billion people for their religion and condone bombing them in their mudhoes. It is time to adapt to the times and stop whining about little things. You and your own mindset, and attitudes are responsible for your own miseries and not the world. "

Spoken like a true philosopher mysteriousjz.
Unfortunately for some posters to understand your observations, they would need to look at the issue outside of themselves--and sadly some of them don't have that capacity.
They'll rather remain fixed flat on an issue till the cows come home, and blame everyone and everything instead of trying to look at an issue from every angle.

[valh1]

evilbusheviks, you think you are so clever coming up with pet names for conservatives. I guess that really is all you have, though, since your IQ is so low. Your real name is Paul Begala, isn't it?

[ritad7]

It is amazing how different CBS accounting of the shifting minority population is from other news sources. USA.Today is reporting a totally different read on this story and talks about hoe the Hispanics are over-populating every group in America. Read it and leave the ignorant racism out of your comments please.

[whatisit21]

Whenever I fill out a census, I always alternate my race. One time, I'm black. The next, I'm a Pacific Islander. 3 or 4 times, I marked hispanic. The other catagory never receives the recognition they deserve.