Study: WHO's Flu Warnings Justified

(CBS/AP)  The number of cases of swine flu may have been several times higher than reported and the potential for rapid spread of the illness justified the World Health Organization's decision to raise the global pandemic alert, a new study concludes.

While WHO is reporting about 4,800 confirmed cases in 30 countries, the new analysis estimates there have been between 6,000 and 32,000 cases in Mexico alone.

While there have been 1,626 cases of the flu confirmed in Mexico, the researchers note that there have been more than 11,000 suspected infections.

"Our early analysis would suggest this is going to be an outbreak comparable to that of 20th century pandemics regarding the extent of its spread - it's very difficult to quantify the human health impact at this stage, however," said lead author Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, London.

Ferguson's analysis was released by the journal Science. Normally Science releases its reports on Thursdays but the journal said it was issuing this study early because it contains important public health information.

Meanwhile, on Monday, the World Health Organization's assistant director-general moved to defend the global body against accusations that it stoked unnecessary fear over a flu outbreak that appears to be relatively mild.

"I hope we have come across as trying to present a very balanced picture," Keiji Fukuda told reporters in Geneva.

"I think that one of the things we made clear is that the future is not possible to predict and there are many ways that events could turn out."

"Things could stay relatively mild, things could become more severe. Both of these are possible," he said. "I think without that information both people and countries cannot prepare as well as they can."

Ferguson's researchers said the 2009 H1N1 flu appears to be about equal in severity to the flu of 1957 and less severe than the deadly 1918 version.

The new analysis estimated that between 0.4 percent and 1.4 percent of cases were fatal.

They said the outbreak appears to have originated in mid-February in the village of La Gloria, Veracruz, where over half the population suffered acute respiratory illness, affecting more than 61 percent of under-15-year-olds in the community, the report added.

Using a variety of methods to estimate how easily the virus is transmitted, the researchers said that each case of the flu resulted in between 1.4 and 1.6 infections to others.

Data on the spread and strength of the illness is still incomplete, the researchers stressed. But they said their findings can help policymakers make such decisions as whether to close schools, balancing the cost of such actions against the potential to prevent spread of disease.

The potential spread of the illness in the Southern Hemisphere, which is just beginning its flu season, needs to be closely monitored, Ferguson's team wrote.

WHO's announcement of a Level 5 alert meant that a virus has caused sustained community level outbreaks in at least two countries in one region, and a worldwide pandemic is considered imminent. It alerts countries that do not have the illness yet to prepare for its arrival and institute their pandemic preparedness plans.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that there have been 2,618 flu cases in 44 states with three deaths.

WHO Warns Europe To Be On Guard

The number of swine flu infections in Europe could explode in much the same way it has in North America, a senior World Health Organization official said Monday.

Most instances of the disease - which WHO says has reached 4,694 cases in 30 countries but other tallies put much higher - have occurred in Mexico and the United States.

Most cases in Europe, Asia and South America are linked to travelers bringing the virus home with them, but there is a possibility the disease will become established there too, said WHO's flu chief Keiji Fukuda.

"Whether it will develop exactly as it did in the United States and in Canada and in Mexico is anybody's guess, but I think that the potential for it to be established either in Europe or in other places is there," he said.

Mexico Reopens Schools, Tries To Bolster Economy

Mexico welcomed millions of children back to school Monday with masks, thermometers and globs of hand sanitizer.

The reopening of kindergartens and primary and middle schools shut since April 24 was the latest step in Mexico's efforts to restore a sense of normality. Businesses, government services, high schools and universities reopened last week.

But six of Mexico's 31 states put off reopening schools for a week because of local rises in the number of cases, and a seventh ordered a one-day delay.

The federal Education Department said Monday that all 250,000 schools - except some 30,000 in states that did not reopen Monday - had been cleaned and disinfected as 25 million children prepared to return to class.

"It's very important for families to know that the disease is curable; we have enough medicine to treat any cases that arise," Education Secretary Alonso Lujambio Irazabal said. "As soon as we suspect we have a case we are going to offer antivirals to that person, that teacher, that student."

Mexico also is trying to revive its economy after the epidemic pummeled tourism, the country's third-largest source of legal foreign income. Mexico provided details Monday of a 14 billion peso ($1.1 billion) package to help restaurants, hotels and other businesses.

At least 10 commercial banks are involved in the plan, promising three-month reprieves for small businesses with outstanding loans in Mexico City and two hard-hit states. Small businesses in beach resorts and other tourist destinations were promised a six-month grace period.

Later in the day, Tourism Secretary Rodolfo Elizondo said the government would launch a 1.2 billion peso ($90 million) publicity campaign this week urging Mexicans to take vacations in their own country.

Noting several nations have issued travel warnings or restricted airline flights to Mexico, Elizondo said that for now trying to promote trips to Mexico by foreigners "would be like throwing money away." He said occupancy rates at Mexico's top beach resorts are averaging between 15 percent and 23 percent.

[janieanddeb]

I believe what the WHO is saying is that the virus could mutate and be very sereve
The fears are this virus is highly contagious
We have no amunity from it
The real flu season is in the fall
so this is only a early warning

What we the public are saying is that we heard it before
We dont trust the scientists and there new studies from the study people
That there is alot of money riding on this for drug companies
That the scientist are hungry for funding money

Still I love the americans and their fear of socialized medicine agenda
I love the canandain health care .
but I doublot your country could afford it
Do you really know what it means , yes we pay higher taxes and are goods are higher priced, but I dont fear bancruptcy . i DONT know what it means to someone to try to get health care when they have preexisting medical conditions .
Dosent everyone have preexisting something

Micheal more had it right in the film A little dramatic but the real thing is I never fear I wont get the health treatment I need or my son needs . I wont lose my house every because of brancruptcy because of medical bills.
My mother and brother both died of late stages kidney desease . Both received the best care to the end of their lives . it cost nothing. The care was based ob whats best for them
I am fairly finacially secure . with a paid off mortgage . In your country I would be uninsurable , with no assets as I would of lost them to medical bills. .My assets will be left to my son without fear of my medical bills eating them up

Americans get feed missimformation
do you not get that money to insurance firms would then be redirected to healthcare
That you would pay higher taxes but not that much more as your property taxes are higher.
In the end it would balance out . The rich yes get the same care . They can also opt out and pay for their own care if they choose , but that it if they choose.
It time the Americans really talked to Canandians and knew what it was really like to the individuals not through your fear mongering media. CNN loves the term socialized medicare . they down play that very few modern countries dont have universal health care . .
You are feed the be afraid of anything Socialized ., Truthfully how many developed countries have socialized medicine . WHAT ALMOST EVERY OTHER COUNTRY BUT YOU GUYS OH MY
England Cananda Sweden etc ect but you guys got it right
get over yourselves .
speaking of being fed alot of crap ever think CNN get paid a little to belittle the SOCIALIZED healthcare system hmmmmmmhmmmmmm not say univerasal healthcare.
Visit our hospital see the voluntteers helping patiants helping visiters . See the clean rooms the well trained medical nuirses the doctors . who are highly trained .
thats all bad cause CNN says it SOCIALIZED

[helloall34]

It was never serious, not even in Mexico. The strain could have mutated and become severe, but that potential is often present. WHO was saying "don't panic" and they were the only ones panicing. Complete over reaction.

[glenaw-2009]

I find it interesting that someone thinks that our goverment is generating this crisis when it's organizations like WHO that are setting off the alarms. Everyone should take a look at the people that run WHO. The majority come from other nations. China, England, Africa, just to name a few. Take a read through the post that I made. The statement..."from people staying on the subject at hand to the people that always make it the fault of the political parties"...really does fit here.

The post I made in another forum I think is pertinent here.

I wonder.

If we did nothing and tens of thousands died then everyone would say, after the fact, we did not react enough. If we react with great panic and nothing happens then we shouldn't have done what we did.

The pandemic of 1918 killed hundreds of thousands of people. This current problem is not over. If it does end without killing a lot of people then that's great. Just hope that the people that die aren?t you or someone you love.

Another pandemic will come and depending on what we do or what we don't do will dictate the severity of it.

So lets all second guess everything hide our heads in the sand and do nothing......it will just all go away anyway right?.......

As for the media pumping this.....yes they do. It's the American way.....do anything you can to make a buck. You can see it right here on this forum. As I post this there are people posting their thoughts. From fear to calm thought.......from people staying on the subject at hand to the people that always make it the fault of the political parties......and as we do this the Host of the forum, CBS, reading our posts and trying to figure out a way to raise the level more........the more posts they have the better ratings they have.

I know that I have been very sarcastic here and I apologies for that. It becomes very difficult when so many people do not keep their eye on the ball. With time you will experience the loss of someone and there is no stopping that. To lose some one ...never to see them smile...never to hear their voice....never to walk beside them simply because there are people who will not be careful enough or do not take it seriously enough is beyond me.

Just remember.....people have died and will die because of the H1N1 virus .......that is NOT speculation......wash your hands and keep your hands away from your face.......do things to help prevent catching it.....if you do catch the flu.......cover your mouth when you cough, don't shake peoples hands, limit your contact with people until your over it....to help prevent spreading it.

May god be with you, yours and all of us during all of hard times and good times of our walk through life.

Glen

[nofoolling]

And they also said Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone!

[jonesjep]

It is the FLU!!! Not even especially strong strain of flu. This was a overreaction by everyone and it was spurred on by the Obama administration to distract from the major problems Obama is causing. The Democrat motto has been "Never Let a Crisis Go To Waste!". They love to generate these crisis' and use them to expand their Socialistic agenda. This was an attempt to divert attention from the budget mess Obama is making worse everyday, the Iraq war that was won and is now slipping away under Obama, the Taliban moving in on nuclear weapons. It would have also been a good excuse to push his socialized medicine agenda.