MEXICO CITY, May 8, 2009
Expert Warns Of Swine Flu-Bird Flu Mix
Virus Mutatation Could Be Highly Contagious And Lethal; 1 Dead of Swine Flu In Canada; Hong Kong Lifts Hotel Quarantine
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Students wearing masks to protect against the swine flu contagion attend a class in labor law at Mexico City's University of London, May 7, 2009. High schools and universities across Mexico that were closed by the epidemic reopened this week. (AP Photo/Brennan Linsley)
So what happens if they mix?
This is the scenario that has some scientists worried: The two viruses meet - possibly in Asia, where bird flu is endemic - and combine into a new bug that is both highly contagious and lethal, and can spread around the world.
Scientists are unsure how likely this possibility is, but note that the new swine flu strain - a never-before-seen mixture of pig, human and bird viruses - has shown itself to be especially adept at snatching evolutionarily advantageous genetic material from other flu viruses.
"This particular virus seems to have this unique ability to pick up other genes," said leading virologist Dr. Robert Webster, whose team discovered an ancestor of the current flu virus at a North Carolina pig farm in 1998.
The current swine flu strain - known as H1N1 - has sickened more than 2,350 people in 26 countries. While people can catch bird flu from birds, the bird flu virus - H5N1 - does not easily jump from person to person. It has killed at least 258 people worldwide since it began to ravage poultry stocks in Asia in late 2003.
The World Health Organization reported two new human cases of bird flu on Wednesday. One patient is recovering in Egypt, while another died in Vietnam - a reminder that the H5N1 virus is far from gone.
"Do not drop the ball in monitoring H5N1," WHO Director-General Margaret Chan told a meeting of Asia's top health officials in Bangkok on Friday by video link. "We have no idea how H5N1 will behave under the pressure of a pandemic."
Experts have long feared that bird flu could mutate into a form that spreads easily among people. The past three flu pandemics - the 1918 Spanish flu, the 1957-58 Asian flu and the Hong Kong flu of 1968-69 - were all linked to birds, though some scientists believe pigs also played a role in 1918.
Webster, who works at St. Jude's Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn., said bird flu should be a worry now. Bird flu is endemic in parts of Asia and Africa, and cases of swine flu have already been confirmed in South Korea and Hong Kong.
"My great worry is that when this H1N1 virus gets into the epicenters for H5N1 in Indonesia, Egypt and China, we may have real problems," he told The Associated Press. "We have to watch what's going on very diligently now."
Spokesman Dave Daigle said he could not comment specifically on how concerned the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is about the scenario Webster describes, or what it is doing to study such a possibility.
Malik Peiris, a flu expert at Hong Kong University, said the more immediate worry is that swine flu will mix with regular flu viruses, as flu season begins in the Southern Hemisphere. It is unclear what such a combination would produce.
But he said there are indications that scenario is possible. Peiris noted that the swine flu virus jumped from a farmworker in Canada and infected about 220 pigs. The worker and the pigs recovered, but the incident showed how easily the virus can leap to a different species.
"It will get passed back to pigs and then probably go from pigs to humans," Peiris said. "So there would be opportunities for further reassortments to occur with viruses in pigs."
He said so far bird flu hasn't established itself in pigs - but that could change.
"H5N1 itself has not got established in pigs," he said. "If that were to happen and then these two viruses were both established in pigs in Asia, that would be quite a worrying scenario."
Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Minnesota who has advised the U.S. government on flu preparations, said while flu experts are discussing the scenario, he has yet to see specific evidence causing him to think it will happen.
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"Everything with influenza is a huge guessing game because Mother Nature holds all the rules, and we don't even know what they are, so anything's possible," he said. "We don't have any evidence that this particular reassortment is that much more likely to pick up H5N1 than any other reassortment out there."
This H1N1 hasn't been overblown. It's a puppy, it's an infant, and it's growing. This virus has got the whole human population in the world to breed in … it may become a wimp and disappear, or it may become nasty.
Dr. Robert Webster, virologist"We don't have to put these things together," he added. "This is not chocolate and peanut butter running into each other in the dark hallway."
But there is in fact discussion of putting them together - in a high-security laboratory - to see what a combination would look like, according to Webster. Similar tests have been done at the CDC mixing bird flu and seasonal human flu, resulting in a weak product, he said.
Daigle, the CDC spokesman, refused to comment on the prospect of any such experiment.
Webster has done groundbreaking work on both swine and bird flus in his 40-year career, and has followed the evolution of the current swine flu strain from a virus that sickened a handful of people who worked with North Carolina hogs into a bug that has spread from person to person around the world.
He is closely involved in the global effort to analyze what the virus might do next. It has killed 45 people in Mexico, two in Texas and one in Canada, but so far has not proven very deadly elsewhere, leading to some criticism that the World Health Organization's warnings of a potential pandemic have been overblown.
Webster said underestimating the swine flu virus would be a huge mistake.
"This H1N1 hasn't been overblown. It's a puppy, it's an infant, and it's growing," he said. "This virus has got the whole human population in the world to breed in - it's just happened. What we have to do is to watch it, and it may become a wimp and disappear, or it may become nasty."
Japan Confirms First Cases
Public broadcaster NHK says Japan has confirmed three people with swine flu, the country's first cases. NHK reported Saturday that the patients were passengers who arrived in Tokyo's Narita International Airport on a flight from Detroit the previous day, quoting the health ministry.
The three have been identified as two high school students and a teacher who had visited Canada on a school trip. They were quarantined after showing flu symptoms and tested positive in a primary test on board, NHK said. They are recovering at a hospital near the airport.
Canada Says Woman With Swine Flu Dies
A Canadian woman with swine flu has died, a health official said Friday, but he noted that she also had serious underlying medical conditions.
Dr. Andre Corriveau, Alberta's chief medical officer of health, said it's the first death associated with the swine flu in Canada.
The woman was in her 30s and had other health problems but Corriveau would not elaborate on them. She died on April 28 in her hometown in northern Alberta, Corriveau told reporters.
Health officials tested her remains earlier this week after a relative contracted a mild form of swine flu on May 5.
Corriveau said it's not clear what role swine flu played in her death.
"When she presented herself at the hospital, there were a number of medical conditions present, so physicians didn't think it was the swine flu at the time," he said.
Corriveau stressed that about 4,000 Canadians die each year from the flu.
"This virus is spreading like any other influenza. We get 4,000 deaths from the influenza virus a year. This is the first one we can document related to swine," Corriveau said.
Quarantine Ended At Hong Kong Hotel
Hong Kong on Friday lifted its weeklong quarantine on a downtown hotel where a Mexican swine flu patient stayed, releasing some 280 guests and employees who had been isolated in the building.
The Hong Kong government imposed the quarantine last Friday after diagnosing a 25-year-old man who flew to the city via Shanghai a day earlier. The patient, who was Asia's first confirmed swine flu case, was released from the hospital after a weeklong stay.
(AP Photo/Kin Cheung)
A man who identified himself as a South Korean businessman shouted "I'm happy! I love Hong Kong people!" before breaking into song and hugging a policeman guarding the hotel. He did not give his name.
Another guest, Indian businessman Kevin Ireland, told The Associated Press he plans to check into another hotel and go out to dinner with friends.
"It feels very good to get out. We were treated well," the 45-year-old New Delhi resident said.
Some critics said the quarantine was a politically calculated overreaction, but the Hong Kong government has repeatedly defended the measure as necessary to contain the virus. Hong Kong is also wary of repeating the fallout of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, which killed 299 people here in 2003.
Some guests initially complained about being trapped, but the mood in the hotel appear to gradually shift to acceptance, then appreciation. A picture posted on the Metropark's Facebook page Friday showed guests slipping bills into a tip box for hotel staffers. Hong Kong officials also apologized to Metropark guests and offered them two extra days of hotel lodging after the quarantine and perks like Hong Kong Disneyland tickets, restaurant vouchers and movie tickets as a gesture of thanks.
Ireland told the AP he was understanding of the decision to quarantine the hotel, adding that the incident may have been blown out of proportion.
"You can't blame these people for being a little paranoid," Ireland told the AP in a phone interview, referring to Hong Kong's previous SARS outbreak.
"This has really been dramatized. We're not in Beirut or Gaza or Kabul," he said. "We're in Hong Kong, and downtown Hong Kong at that."
H1N1 Briefs:
© MMIX, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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See all 30 CommentsIt would be like one apartment building with everyone mixing sharing air psace and elevators. .
I dont blame them for wearing masks
Still if it going to happen there not much you can do
If you live in a apartment in a populated area or work in a big office , well your out of luck
true this can mutate and become a mild virus
We wont know til the fall
The influenza virus has this ability on occasion, and its efficacy is dependent on its mutations that have developed over time that make it more powerful than other influenza viruses.
The flu vaccination is trivalent- meaning it contains three viral strains of suspected viruses for flu outbreaks during a particular winter season.
The viral strains are determined by the World Health Organization, as well as the Centers for Disease Control, and other organizations.
Yet one should keep in mind that these three strains of influenza may not even exist in a particular flu season.
The vaccination is a guess, at best, yet is certainly better than the absence of a flu vaccination.
Unfortunately, the influenza vaccine administered last flu season was believed to be largely ineffective due to unsuspected strains of the virus infecting others.
Although about 140 million injections of this vaccine were administered, this proved to be pointless for preventative medicine for influenza during this season.
The most recent flu season was fairly mild, according to the CDC.
After giving the vaccination dose to one, it takes about 10 days for that person to build up the immunity for the disease of influenza.
The months of October to December are recommended to receive this vaccine.
And the vaccine is about 50 percent effective in offering protection from influenza, according to others, if one calculates the previous flu seasons with flu vaccinations.
Vaccines are a catalyst for antibody production in humans, which protect them against the virus, if the influenza virus happens to present itself within them.
The influenza vaccines can be given by injection or nasally.
The flu season that is now occurring was supplied with 150 million vaccines in the United States.
However, some studies have shown that this vaccine is rather ineffective based on incidences of the acquisition of the influenza virus by others, initial reports have indicated.
The influenza season peaks between the months of January and March.
The vaccine for this influenza season is manufactured by 6 different companies in preparation for this timeframe of the influenza season.
Also, it takes manufacturers about 6 months to make and formulate the influenza vaccination.
The influenza vaccine is produced every year according to which type of virus types that may be prevalent during a particular flu season.
The presence of influenza can be widespread in certain states, yet not others. The vaccination is recommended to be administered to those who are at high risk, such as the chronically ill.
Also, it is recommended that those under 18 years of age get the vaccine, as well as those people over the age of 50.
Pregnant women should receive the immunization. Health care personnel are always encouraged to get a flu vaccine as well.
Such populations of those recommended to receive the flu vaccination are those believed to need the protection the vaccine may offer the most.
This is of concern, as influenza can progress rapidly into the more serious illnesses mentioned earlier that can lead to death.
Anti-virals, on the other hand, decrease greatly the ability for viruses to reproduce once established in a human.
That seems like it should be a focus during viral seasons instead of any vaccination that exist today regarding the disease of influenza.
Yet, as with antibiotics, viruses can become resistant to anti-virals as well.
Yet the strains chosen for the influenza vaccine contain what are speculated influenza viruses.
So the vaccine is ineffective if a new and dominant influenza viral strain that possibly could cause a pandemic happens to be present during an influenza season.
With the influenza virus, again it can have the ability to kill mammals, as well as birds, along with humans at times.
The concern that there is an influenza strain that exists that has the ability to mutate.
If this happens, the viruses have the ability to share genetic data between separate life forms as they, multiply within each one of them with ease.
This is the case with what is known as the Avian Flu, as well as the Swine Flu.
The most recent avian influenza virus was identified in China in 1997. Called the H5N1 virus subtype, it has the potential to be the next flu pandemic.
The last Swine Flu outbreak occured in the United States during the mid 1970s.
However, the virus responsible for the pandemic mentioned earlier was an avian influenza, which was called the H1N1 influenza virus.
This virus, unlike the human influenza virus, has a longer incubation period- about 5 days.
A virus is more of a very well organized molecular parasite than an actual life form, such as bacteria.
The virus cannot grow or reproduce without a host cell- another life form. That means it needs a bird or mammal, such as humans, in order to exist and thrive.
And the virus has the potential to completely destroy the host they have acquired in the process in order to exist.
Presently, influenza is once again a very concerning sub-microscopic infectious agent, and we are their potential hosts in order for these viruses to survive.
The influenza viruses are of what are called orthomyxoviruses, which is a group or family of RNA viruses that are categorized into A, B, and C.
The Influenza A virus is the one that historically has caused pandemics that have developed in the past.
About eighty percent of flu cases in the U.S. are type A influenza viruses.
Influenza vaccinations are the only available method of prevention at this time from the potentially deadly effects of influenza.
Influenza is the virus responsible for the disease that has its name, and it is spread easily to other humans.
This virus can be deadly to a greater degree when the virus creates a pandemic, which did happen in the United States and other parts of the world less than 100 years ago.
Other influenza pandemics primarily and historically have occurred in countries in Asia.
For an influenza pandemic to occur, which means a global disease existence and presence, the virus must emerge from another species to humans without a strong immune system- as well as the ability to make more humans ill than normal due to the constant mutation of the influenza virus.
Also, the virus must be highly contagious for a pandemic to occur.
That pandemic caused around a half a million deaths in the United States alone.
This event is now known as the Great Influenza Epidemic.
Understandably there was panic among people worldwide, as the influenza virus itself was not identified until the year 1933.
So, the mystery was rather frightening of what was happening at that time.
The etiology for the illness and the deaths that followed at such a rapid rate was a complete mystery to everyone at the time.
Clearly, at times these influenza strains are more dangerous than others, and this was one of the strains that clearly proved to be much more during that particular epidemic.
The potentially deadly effects of the influenza virus is due to this virus penetrating the host, such as a human being
Once infected and established in the host, the virus replicates within the cell of the host in the cell?s cytoplasm.
To survive, the influenza virus targets an enzyme called polymerase, which is what directs the content of this cell to produce proteins the virus needs to exist.
Unlike coryza, influenza expresses symptoms more severely, and usually lasts two weeks until one recovers who has the flu.
Influenza, however, poses a danger to some with compromised immune systems, such as the chronically ill.
So the risk is greater in such populations, along with women who may be pregnant during the flu season, residents of nursing homes or chronic care facilities.
If unprotected by an effective influenza vaccination given to such patient populations, influenza has a greater ability to penetrate hosts and create complications.
These complications may include deadly diseases, such as bacterial pneumonia or encephalitis.
Symptoms of influenza usually start to express themselves symptomatically about two days or so after being infected with the virus.
Over 10 percent of the population is infected with this virus every year- resulting in about 200,000 hospitalizations and nearly 40,000 deaths, according to the Center For Disease Control (CDC).
Those who do survive an influenza infection allow others to obtain antibodies from them to develop other antibodies for future viral outbreaks.
The antibodies are used to produce vaccines to prevent acquisition of the damaging effects of influenza.
Yet this is only if the antibodies contained in the influenza vaccine are effective against the suspected particular influenza strains that are present during the influenza season.
Specifically, it is usually what is known as strept pneumo bacteria that kill those due to an infection of these microbes due to being invaded by influenza, ultimately.
This is the type of bacteria that typically infect a person suffering from influenza who may have compromised immune systems, as mentioned earlier.
In these cases, the bacteria are allowed to thrive at a higher and more deadly rate.
On average, it takes over a week for one to die after being infected by influenza that has the power to cause death in particular human populations.
Posted by janieanddeb at 11:40 AM : May 10, 2009
That is just not true. They are not saying that we are going to die in the fall. What they are saying is, that it is possible for this virus to mutate and come back in the fall and be worse than it is now. That is what happened with the 1918 flu. It ended up killing millions of people. But they are not saying that it WILL happen, they are saying it is possible that it could happen.
If you are going to post a comment, makes sure you know what you are talking about.
Yet I havent meet anyone freaked out. We have grown into a society who doesnt read the news as fact but as something to debate.
Going over details of the reports and second quessing the scientists.. In a way it is interesting how much the general pubic has changed in our reaction to the news.
We never used to ask ourselves if we believe the scientists and experts.in the fifties. We have had years of wonky studies set up to prove what the researchers wanted to prove .
The real story is the scientist need to gain back our faith in them if they are going to be beleived . If they were true and I knew for sure well I would be living up north in small town in a house. Oh yeah I am
I think in general the scientist are debating and reseatrching this faCT BECAUSE the fact that virus mutate and are unpredictable , look at TB and AIDS.
both are becoming resistant to the drugs both evolve and are unpredictable.
I think the best scientists cant really give you a answer ony I would like to hear from the WHO and the CDC
What preparations do you suggest?
Posted by azulene at 12:09 AM : May 9, 2009
How the hell can you stockpile vaccines, when like this one they will probably be NEW viruses? Ones we haven't seen before.
This particular virus may not amount to anything, at least not right now, but that doesn't mean that it can't come back like the 1918 one did. This one may not end up being a pandemic, but there will be one someday. It's just a matter of time.
Should people panic? NO. But I will say that it's a wonder that people aren't, because your media is so out of control.
There isn't a lot to do, to prepare. Have masks and hand sanitizer on hand. That's it. Wash your hands, cover your mouth. BUT if one does get going, you might want to rush out and buy food and medical supplies, because once it really gets going, EVERYTHING will end up shutting down. Stores will close because there won't be anyone to work or they will be afraid to, incase they get it. There won't be any food shipments or whatever because MILLIONS of people will be sick. Actually that's where you really need to prepare yourself, because by the time you figure that you need to get out there and get supplies, so has everyone else. Everyone and their grandma will be out there trying to stock up. Let's hope you get there first, huh? Oh, and all the ones out there scrambling around trying to get those supplies?, a lot of them will already be sick and that means it makes it real easy for YOU to get sick too. : )
You don't need to panic, but you should really deal with REALITY. It's all just a matter of time. If it doesn't happen naturally, it will be a terrorist attack, or some idiot will end up letting it out of one your MANY facilities that contain deadly diseases.
Posted by azulene at 12:04 AM : May 9, 2009
No, I think that one has already done damage. It's pickled your brain.
Why they just start with a headline like this:
SCIENTISTS PREDICT UNKNOWN THREAT BY NEXT DECADE
"Nobody knows what it is yet, but millions could die."
Posted by erasmus111 at 1:13 PM : May 8, 2009
That would make me very sad if that happened.
Posted by AJMarine12 at 3:47 PM : May 8, 2009
You always bring a smile to my face, AJMarine. : )
falling over dead?
A victim succumbing to the dreaded Rabbit, Swine, Bird flu.
This is beginning to sound like somebody testing to see where
next year's April fools day joke needs upgrading to be a hit.
How about,,,"Elephant, Rabbit, Swine, Bird, Cockroach flu'?
You think that wouldn't send some people off to caves wearing masks
lugging a year's supply of porno tapes??
Posted by erasmus111 at 1:13 PM : May 8, 2009
That would make me very sad if that happened.
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