Officials: H1N1 Not 1918 All Over Again

Swine Flu Virus Lacks Traits Of Deadly 1918 Strain, According To Health Officials; U.S. Cases Near 150 In 19 States

(CBS/AP)  As the cases of H1N1 virus, commonly called the swine flu, climbed close to 150 in the United States, U.S. health officials said the new virus lacks traits found in the deadly 1918 flu strain.

The global flu epidemic early last century was possibly the deadliest outbreak of all time. The virus was an H1N1 strain - different from the H1N1 strain involved in the current outbreak - and struck mostly healthy young adults. Experts estimate it killed about 40 to 50 million people worldwide.

"We do not see the markers for virulence that were seen in the 1918 virus," said Dr. Nancy Cox, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention flu chief.

The CDC said there were now 141 confirmed cases in the U.S., up from 109 on Thursday. The flu is now in 19 states, up from 11, according to federal figures. Separately a few states reported slightly higher numbers.

There is still only one death reported in the U.S. - a Mexican toddler who died in Texas.

Still, in this atmosphere of anxiety, prescriptions for antivirals are up 800 percent since early April, reports CBS News correspondent Nancy Cordes.

And the government is spending $250 million to buy 13 million courses of anti-flu drugs Tamiflu and Relenza.

President Obama explained the move in a special cabinet meeting.

He the swine flu might end up running its course "like ordinary flus" but the government is preparing for the worst just in case. He said the flu is a cause for concern because it is new strain and people have not developed an immunity to it.

"Even if it turns out that H1N1 is relatively mild on front end could come back in more virulent form during flu season," Mr. Obama said.

Mr. Obama said, "I'm optimistic that we're going to be able to manage this effectively."

Still,, some public health experts are expressing concern about whether hospitals could handle the onslaught if the outbreak worsens in the near future or in the next flu season.

"We really have not made much progress in our hospitals in the us being able to surge up to increase capacity in a hurry to accommodate lots of sick patients from influenza," Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University, told Cordes.

The man spearheading flu preps at health and human services says hospitals will never have enough beds to handle a pandemic.

"It's just not cost effective to build those facilities and have them sit empty," said Rear Adm. Craig Vanderwagen, Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response at the Department of Health and Human Services.

But he's confident that there are enough medical supplies and doctors. And he pointed out they can be shifted around the country - from areas where the virus has not struck to ones where there are active cases - as needed, Cordes reports.

Amid the growing concern over the virus, federal officials are also warning Americans of fraudulent H1N1 treatments advertised over the Internet.

Some sites are promoting unauthorized products that claim to diagnose, prevent, treat or cure the flu strain, according the Food and Drug Administration and the Federal Trade Commission.
“The last thing any consumer needs right now is to be conned by someone selling fraudulent flu remedies,” said FTC Chairman Jon Leibowitz in a statement.

U.S. authorities pledged to eventually produce enough swine flu vaccine for everyone who needs it but the shots couldn't begin until fall at the earliest.

Within a week, the CDC hopes to send samples of the new virus to manufacturers so they can begin developing a vaccine. But there's no green light yet for actual vaccine production, reports CBS News medical correspondent Dr. Jon LaPook.

"We anticipate that when we decide to manufacture a vaccine, we will have a large quantity of vaccine by the fall," Dr. Richard Besser, acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told CBS News.

Federal officials also tried to reassure the public it's still safe to fly and ride public transportation after Vice President Joe Biden said he wouldn't recommend it to his family.

"There's not an increased risk there," the CDC's Besser said Friday. "If you have the flu or flu-like symptoms, you shouldn't be getting on an airplane or you shouldn't be getting in the subway, but for the general population that's quite fine to do," he said.

On airplanes, air circulates side to side, with air entering the cabin from overhead, circulating across the aircraft and then exiting the cabin near the floor, reports CBS News correspondent Bianca Solorzano.

"The air goes out the sides of the plane and up through HEPA filters, which are hospital filters. The air on a plane is cleaner than the air in my building," Roger Dow, president of the U.S. Travel Association, told CBS News.

But concerns about the flu were enough to divert one airplane bound for Washington, DC today, Cordes reports. A passenger from Germany complained she felt ill. And the pilots landed right away in Boston.

Separately, despite assurances that air travel was safe, Houston-based Continental Airlines, which has over 500 flights per week between the U.S. and Mexico, became the first U.S. carrier to curtail service. Many travelers have become increasingly concerned about going to Mexico, though authorities there said new cases and the death rate was leveling off.

Mexico has confirmed 397 swine flu cases but stopped reporting suspected infections when the number approached 2,500. Mexico late Friday raised the number of confirmed deaths from the flu to 16, although reports have indicated that roughly 120 may have died from it.

"We were already experiencing soft market conditions due to the economy, and now our Mexico routes in particular have extra weakness," Continental Chairman and Chief Executive Larry Kellner said in a statement Friday.

It wasn't immediately clear whether other airlines would follow Continental's lead. "We are hearing that there is a softening of demand to and from Mexico," said David Castelveter, a spokesman for the Air Transportation Association, which represents airlines.

Meanwhile, Mexico's chief epidemiologist said the World Health Organization was slow to respond to its warning about a health crisis that turned into a global swine flu scare and he wants an investigation.

Clinics and hospital emergency rooms in New York, California and some other states are seeing a surge in patients with coughs and sneezes that might have been ignored before the outbreak.

In Washington state, a 33-year-old pediatrician with allergy symptoms saw patients before she became ill enough to seek treatment, reports CBS News correspondent Nancy Cordes. With official test results pending, health officials believe she has the H1N1 virus and are in the process of contacting all the patients she saw on Monday.

Scientists were racing to prepare the key ingredient to make a vaccine against the never-before-seen flu strain - if it's ultimately needed. But it will take several months before the first pilot lots begin required human testing to ensure the vaccine is safe and effective. If all goes well, broader production could start in the fall.

"We think 600 million doses is achievable in a six-month time frame" from that fall start, Health and Human Services Assistant Secretary Craig Vanderwagen told lawmakers Thursday.

"I don't want anybody to have false expectations. The science is challenging here," Vanderwagen told reporters. "Production can be done, robust production capacity is there. It's a question of can we get the science worked on the specifics of this vaccine."

Until a vaccine is ready, the government has stockpiled anti-viral medications that can ease flu symptoms or help prevent infection. The medicines are proving effective.

The government is purchasing 13 million additional courses of Tamiflu and Relenza, antiviral flu medications to replace the millions it has distributed to the affected states, reports Cordes.

It's also sending 400,000 courses to Mexico to assist with the outbreak there.

More than half the states have yet to stockpile the number of flu-treatment doses recommended by the federal government, an Associated Press survey found. They cited budget contraints or said it's better to spend health-care funds on preventing the spread of disease than on antiviral medicines that may or may not work on a particular flu strain.

But, the acting head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said no state is expected to experience shortages because the federal government is racing to fill states' stockpiles with millions of additional doses from its own strategic reserves.

The swine flu outbreak penetrated over a dozen states and even touched the White House, which disclosed that an aide to Energy Secretary Steven Chu apparently got sick helping arrange President Barack Obama's recent trip to Mexico but that the aide did not fly on Air Force One and never posed a risk to the president.

The Washington Post identified the aide as Marc Griswold, a former Secret Service agent who was doing advance work for Chu. It said that Griswold has complained about the infection placing his family in an awkward position with family and neighbors.

"We're not the Typhoid Mary family, for goodness sake," he said. "We've been told that we're not contagious. We're already past the seven-day mark for that."

So far U.S. cases are mostly fairly mild with one death, unlike in Mexico where more than 160 suspected deaths have been reported. Most of the U.S. cases so far haven't needed a doctor's care, officials said.

The World Health Organization is warning of an imminent pandemic because scientists cannot predict what a brand-new virus might do. A key concern is whether this spring outbreak will surge again in the fall.

There are 146 confirmed cases in the United States, including 50 in New York; 28 in Texas; 18 in California; 16 in South Carolina; five in New Jersey; four each in Arizona and Delaware; three each in Indiana and Illinois; two each in Kansas, Colorado, Virginia, Michigan and Massachusetts; and one each in Ohio, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada and Kentucky.

Around the world, France, Switzerland and the Netherlands became the latest countries to report infections.

According to news reports, South Korea has its first confirmed case. Yonhap news agency reported Saturday that final tests confirmed a 51-year-old woman has the disease after recently returning from a trip to Mexico.

She has been listed as a probable case since Tuesday. Officials have said she has recovered enough to consider being discharged from a hospital where she remains quarantined.

Officials declined to confirm the report, saying they will make a formal announcement later.

France's health minister said the patients, a 49-year-old man and a 24-year-old woman, both recently returned from Mexico. Roselyne Bachelot said Friday both are "doing well." They are hospitalized in Paris.

Bachelot also said another patient "very probably" had the virus, though it has not yet been confirmed.

Canada, New Zealand, Britain, Germany, Spain, Israel and Austria also have confirmed cases.

The Red Cross said it was readying an army of 60 million volunteers who could be deployed around the world to help slow the virus' spread.

---

2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map:
This is a map depicting confirmed and suspected cases of the 2009 H1N1 outbreak, with contributors from all over the world, from a variety of backgrounds including health, journalism, technology.

[janieanddeb]

There are some horror stories coming out . It seems there is a pocket of cases in Northern Manitoba amoung the native comunity that are hit hard.
The scientist are trying to find out if it is caused by over crowding and poor health care.
They normally live in crowded houses ten persons per house. i quess that would be the same as apartment building who use one elevator daily.
What they are really saying is they have no clear idea but there is a chance there are going to be horrific outcomes .
so what do we do
we sit here and say the media is lying or they are covering up
beyond that not much

[janieanddeb]

Of course everyone is suspious of the media. CNN keeps refering to Cananda health care system Socialized medicine , Gee maybe the major insurance companies tell them to say that. yAH THINK
No media is entirely uncorrupted
Thats really sad who do you trust.
Is The WHO just saying this to get a increase in funding
Is the media playing it down because of the goverment tells them to
Or are they playing it up to sell papers ,
These forums are the only source to discuss the imformation being sent to us from the media.
I beleive the govberment is downplaying it . They have no plans not enough medicine
Seriously if this is going to play out in th worst case senerio then there will a horrific consequences , Finacail crisis medical crisis .
What we do know is that there is evidence that it hits the native communities worst .
crowded living conditions poor health care
the story about meixico is that it was there for a long time before it got media attention
that there probally are more deaths attributed then accounted for

.

[carolann31]

Dr. Basseur, when asked if it was harmful to eat pork that were now infected, failed to answer the question appropriately.

[retiredgustav]

For all of you Obama haters out there claiming you voted for Obama and now regret it I think you are tellng stories. However I do know of a lot of people that voted for bush and regret it.

[thgdriver]

I see people wearing those paper/fiber masks and I suppose they, sociologically, feel safe from germs. Fact is those things don't even stop dust. Poor Joe, you all know how I feel about the Democrats but I am always fair. This time Joe Biden is right, stay home and for gods sake stay out of the hospitals, thats where all the "sick" people are!

[Amomentof]

Have a read: http://www.truthout.org/042809K

[mountaingirllll]

ok heres some confidence,.....admidst all of this worry and thorns of life,.......
and the strange overemphasis of this flu and of all other circumstances right now causing us to unhealthily worry more than usual,.......
read matthew 13 : 22 about thorns in this parable about worry......
Now read how we are victorious through someone who wore a crown of thorns
John 19: 5
Jesus took our worries to the cross!
I know I sound ridiculus here around alot of popele who would rather
talk on about any other remedy other than this one that requires only a prayer....
but in this world right now,....we all would agree that whatever we trusted in
has betrayed us somehow and theres only Jesus now to help us,.....
Hes all im hanging on to and if I died tonight,......knowing Hes the only thing carrying me
even in all my imperfections,......(my mouth)....IM assured He wouldnt let me down.

1 Peter 5:6,7 and Matthew 11 : 28-30

[mountaingirllll]

IM sorry i made jokes about this flu.........really sorry ...........people are really getting sick and well now i got migraines and stomach pains so bad,........but I do think people are overacting a litte more than usual where this could be more of a psychiatric nightmare.......i was wondering if we have head coverings as well as masks...
hehe...there i go again,..........I know that talking about it endlessly is not going to do anything,......and my fingers feel like hostages on this keyboard.

[mountaingirllll]

blablablablablablablablablablablablablablablablablabla

how do you like my 2 cents

[wdh3007]

Careful the govt doesn't want you to say swine flu they want you to call it something other than what it is. Is that not just like the govt they are in denial and cannot protect you nor do they want to unfortunatly this could be BO's Katrina within months if not dealt with. And they still refuse to close the border and stop flights to Mexico where this originated so let's let more infected people legal and illegal in great do nothing plan from this lousy administration.

[searingtruth]

"Yes, without TV, etc. people would gather in intellectual salons and graciously bring ideas together. These forums brought together the greatest minds, the rich the poor, but certainly the intelligent. There were serious social forums for arts, sciences, philosophy, everything. Sharing knowledge and learning from someone else was, well, fashionable. Why is it now, there are reactions, but few thoughts? Poor Walt Whitman, so much for his vision of his brave future America."
Posted by inmaryland1 at 6:29 PM : May 1, 2009


I understand fellow citizen, but do not give up on humanity yet. We are certainly in transition, but not yet in decline.

The next few decades will tell.
ST


"I understand. For I have been disappointed also. Humanity, overall, almost always disappoints me. However humans, individually, almost always fill me with hope. This has led me to the conviction that humanity is good; it is our organization and ideologies that have proven pitifully and woefully ineffective and inadequate."
SearingTruth

A Future of the Brave

[inmaryland1]

Yes, without TV, etc. people would gather in intellectual salons and graciously bring ideas together. These forums brought together the greatest minds, the rich the poor, but certainly the intelligent. There were serious social forums for arts, sciences, philosophy, everything. Sharing knowledge and learning from someone else was, well, fashionable. Why is it now, there are reactions, but few thoughts? Poor Walt Whitman, so much for his vision of his brave future America.

[searingtruth]

"...There was a time, maybe my grandparents' time, where there were welcome exchanges of ideas, throughts, everything for the advancement of human kind. The exchanges of thoughts and ideas, the very debate of them have been the greatest contributions we have today...."
Posted by inmaryland1 at 6:12 PM : May 1, 2009


I agree. And eloquently stated fellow citizen inmaryland1.
ST


"One of the greatest tragedies of our existence is that we are a people united by so many common goals, but divided by so many uncommon beliefs.

I believe that our goals are more important. We all want to be free. We all want our children to be healthy and happy. Most all of us want peace so long as our own rights are protected.

These are the ideals that we can all strive for together. These are the threads of humanity that cannot be torn apart."
SearingTruth, A Future of the Brave

A Future f the Brave

[inmaryland1]

Oh, conserveputz...it isn't about a scare for some people, it is about the science and the understanding...the learning based on history, now, and the future. It is minds, good minds, joining in looking at the past, combining science and creating a different future. You've displayed hate, the lowest form of thought. You must be intelligent enough to add something to helpful to the conversation. You were interested enough to read the article and then read the thoughts of others towards what was written. Don't spew, give us your reasoning for your position.
There was a time, maybe my grandparents' time, where there were welcome exchanges of ideas, throughts, everything for the advancement of human kind. The exchanges of thoughts and ideas, the very debate of them have been the greatest contributions we have today. What happened here is a reduction into shouting and cursing. Maybe this verbal, non-helpful violence is the real, new virulent epidemic.

[searingtruth]

Fellow citizens,

The 1918 pandemic "Spanish flu" virus appeared twice. First towards the end of the flu season, and it was similarly contagious, but produced relatively mild illness as does the virus we are experiencing today.

However, it then appeared at the beginning of the next flu season in a mutated version that had an extremely high mortality rate, and killed approximately 50 million people worldwide.

That is why we must eradicate this virus in its infancy, so it cannot continue to circulate and mutate.

For we allow it to persist at our own peril.

So please call your Governors today and demand immediate social distancing, which is the only way to stop the spread of asymptomatic infection.
ST


"Fellow citizens,

Even before the first unfortunate death occurred in this pandemic, I felt it was critical that as many as possible call their Governors and demand the immediate imposition of social distancing, which means the temporary closing of all our borders, schools, non-essential businesses and public transportation, and a request that as many as possible stay in their homes. While this is indeed an extreme response, I believe the following information will convince you to agree, and call your Governors and demand that the spread of this virus be minimized.

So first of all, let's look at why I believe this virus, which while called the swine flu is actually a combination of swine, avian, and human influenza, is likely to spread to unacceptable levels without prophylactic (this means before infection is detected) social distancing.

If you go to "http://www.lanl.gov/news/images/avianflu.shtml" you can view three successive pictures of the Los Alamos supercomputer Pinks simulations of the spread of an airborne avian virus over 130 days, introduced by only 10 infected persons in LA, without prophylactic social distancing. These pictures represent the optimum outcome if we use travel restrictions, anti-viral drugs like Tamiflu, and limited social distancing after the detection of infection. The second picture (90 days) shows the best we can hope for.

The link at the bottom has a Quicktime video link to what we can expect with no action at all. If you can't view Quicktime then you can view the same video at "http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htnh7pBBtrM"

For an explanation of the death pattern of this virus, you can read the article at "http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/17/AR2007011701113.html" for the University of Wisconsin's Spanish Flu study.

This article explains what can best be characterized as "Immune System Shock" where mature immune systems attack our bodies as much or more than the virus, and why young and old immune systems, because of their inefficient response, attack with less efficiency.

Fellow citizens, I don't want to panic anyone, I simply want you to know the truth we face, in hopes you'll contact your Governors so later panic will not be necessary.

My greatest hope is that you, and all those you love, never suffer, and never die such a horrific and needless death."
SearingTruth, April 24, 2009

A Future of the Brave

[inmaryland1]

Some thoughts and input needed:
This new strain could be thought of in terms of a hybridization, a concept most learned in high school.
I'm not sure if hybridization can even be associated with a virus, but the virus mutation in this case reminds me of intergeneric, even interordinal hybridization (last stages of hybridization). The changes the virus would arealdy have made, in waves, to get to the intergeneric or interordinal position would be from single cross, through double cross to triple cross hybridization, resulting in population hybrids (widespread and strong). All in all, this would mean 5 mutations/hybridizations to this point. Now, I know a virus isn't an animal, or even a cell, but who knows the evolution pattern of a mutating virus? Is there a correlation for mutation which might help me understand how far this mutation has already come, and how much more it needs to go? I apologize for any mistakes I've made above. Thanks for the indulgence.

[beanathlete]

Hey Everyone,

The 1918 strain was H1N5, so of course it wasn't "like" this strain.

I beg you all to PLEASE research the influenza virus, and also which animals and birds carry it, how it spreads and how it mutates, and how it affects humans in its different mutations. This is so you don't fall for rumours, and you learn how to protect yourself.

The influenza virus has always been humanity's enemy. Even in good years, about 30,000 Americans die each year from the flu. Read up on it; there's plenty of research available.

The U. S. government prepared a swine flu vaccine about three decades ago, but that virus strain never materialized. Does anyone remember? Did anyone take notes?

As for this strain, we don't know yet if it's going to be the big one that hits us humans every 70 or so years. Right now, we humans need to mobilize rather than hunker down in fear.

Meanwhile, do the research about the influenza virus so you know what we're dealing with----Wina Sturgeon, adventure sports weekly.

[beanathlete]

Hey Everyone,

First, the 1918 flu was N1H5, not the same strain as today's version. But more important:

I beg you all to PLEASE research the influenza virus, and also which animals and birds carry it, how it spreads, how it mutates, and how it affects humans in its different mutations. This is so you don't fall for rumours or media hype, and you learn how to protect yourself.

The influenza virus has always been humanity's enemy. Even in good years, about 30,000 Americans die each year from the flu. Read up on it; there's plenty of research available. More people DIE in one day from auto accidents than currently even HAVE the flu in America right now.

The U. S. government prepared a swine flu vaccine about three decades ago, but that virus strain never materialized. Does anyone remember? Did anyone take notes?

As for this strain, we don't know yet if it's going to be the big one that hits us humans every 70 or so years. Right now, we humans need to mobilize rather than hunker down in fear. Carry a rag to use on door knobs, elevator buttons and light switches. Carry a pair of rubber or latex gloves to protect your hands from contamination. Wash your hands after touching groceries or products while shopping.

Meanwhile, do the research about the influenza virus so you know what we're dealing with----Wina Sturgeon, Editor, Adventure Sports Weekly.

[boiler_tech]

I'm gonna stock up on pork roasts and ribs for my freezer when the market falls so I can be well stocked for the quarantine. I love an irony.

[inmaryland1]

I have a feeling this is like growing ivy...at first it creeps, then it leaps. It should work in waves, gaining strength at each pass. I think CDC is wise to try to limit how many passes this thing gets. I am convinced that in Mexico this virus made several rounds, gaining steam until it became deadly. This was precisely the path the Spanish flu made, though I don't think, in reality, we're looking at a repeat. Imagine this thing getting enough steam to cause our economy to shut down, even for a short while. Prevention is worth a pound of cure, or so they say...