Swine Flu Is Bad, But Panic Is Dangerous

Governments Often Overreact To Influenza Outbreaks; Declan McCullagh Offers Some Historic Perspective

(CBS)  A deadly virus is quietly killing about 3,500 Americans a month, and there's nothing that modern medicine can do about it.

That virus appears every year during the influenza season and causes more than 200,000 hospitalizations in the United States and about 41,000 deaths.

By comparison, swine flu has caused one confirmed death in the United States - in the case of a toddler visiting from Mexico, and seven confirmed deaths south of the border. Mexican Health Secretary Jose Cordova says he believes the situation is stabilizing, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports the need for hospitalization in the U.S. is rare.

Yet Web sites selling N95 respirator masks crashed on Monday due to a deluge of orders, Purell hand sanitizer is out of stock at Drugstore.com, and Amazon.com. Cable TV hosts - in a flurry of alarmism ably captured by Jon Stewart on the Daily Show - have pressed the panic button. Repeatedly.

It's reasonable, of course, to wash your hands more frequently and make sure you have extra food and water on hand. But then again, it's always prudent to do that: every corner of this country experiences natural disasters that could disrupt electricity, water, gas, or other services for days or even weeks.

Unfortunately, government officials - never willing to let a good crisis go to waste - seem more prone to extreme measures than the rest of us.

Lebanon's health minister is discouraging friendly kisses on cheeks. France wants a Europe-wide ban on flights to Mexico, contrary to the World Health Organization's recommendations, even though Europe already has confirmed cases of swine flu.

Egyptian farmers rioted after their government ordered the slaughter of up to 400,000 pigs, even though no cases have been reported in that country. (U.S. pork producers' lobbying to rename swine flu now seems perfectly understandable.)

To his credit, President Obama struck a more even tone in his press conference on Wednesday evening, saying: "The most important thing right now that public health officials have indicated is that we treat this the same way that we would treat other flu outbreaks, just understanding that, because this is a new strain, we don't yet know how it will respond."

(Perhaps Mr. Obama may want to tell his Department of Homeland Security to stand down on the whole quarantine thing.)

To be sure, we should make allowances for government officials with the jitters: H1N1 at first seemed more deadly than it now appears to be, reliable data from Mexico has been lacking, and the concentration of deaths in Mexico City remains puzzling. It's possible that the virus could mutate to a more virulent form in a few months, and bureaucratic instincts naturally provoke overreaction rather than underreaction.

But governmental overreaction can cause more serious problems than a run on N95 masks. The legitimate quarantine power of governments can be misused, or used too broadly.

Misinformation can be spread, which happened during the 1918 flu and cost thousands of people their lives. (A Colorado Department of Human Services manual about pandemics for public health workers is delightfully frank, saying someone should "decide if publicizing mortality rates is helpful." Because Americans can't be trusted with the truth?)

Perhaps the best example of governmental overreaction to influenza came in 1976, when an outbreak of swine flu struck Fort Dix Army base in New Jersey. After a 19-year-old private died, President Gerald Ford ordered a nationwide vaccination program that eventually reached 40 million people, or about 24 percent of the United States population at the time.

Without the vaccine, Health Secretary F. David Matthews solemnly predicted at the time: "We will see a return of the 1918 flu virus that is the most virulent form of the flu. In 1918 a half million Americans died. The projections are that this virus will kill one million Americans in 1976."

The vaccination program turned out to be a deadly mistake. Reports soon surfaced about the vaccine causing a neuromuscular disorder called Guillain-Barré syndrome, and vaccinations were halted about two months after they began.

No swine flu epidemic ever erupted. The outbreak was limited to Fort Dix, and about 500 Americans likely died as a result of the vaccine.

It's true that Mr. Obama appears more level-headed than his predecessor, and the state of medicine (including anti-viral drugs) has advanced considerably. But even the CDC and WHO are hardly prescient: the 1976 episode should remain a cautionary tale of how not to respond to an outbreak of influenza.

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I encourage you to bookmark the home page for my Other People's Money column. An RSS feed is available too. If you have questions, feedback, or suggestions, please feel free to e-mail me at Declan McCullagh.

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Declan is the chief political correspondent for CBSNews.com. Previously, he was Wired's Washington bureau chief and a reporter for Time.com and Time magazine in Washington, D.C. He has taught journalism, public policy, and First Amendment law. He is an occasional programmer, avid analog and digital photographer, and lives with his wife in the San Francisco Bay area.

[jodyrae4]

Liberal media Sensationalized BS

[frankwalshjr]

the media has overblown the swine flu outbreak. you are causing unneeded response to this flu the flu that is around before this has killed over 1400 people so far this year. why are you not reporting on this instead of scareing people with this swine flu bullcrap.why is all your news bad news is there nothing good to report on or it doesnt pay you to report it.

[melpol1]

Humans are no different than the animals that panic in a forest fire. They are now wearing double masks and washing their hands until the skin is raw. A sneeze in a movie house will start a stamped toward the exits. A few more deaths from the flu will have people stockpiling food and locking their doors. Life is precious but it is not worth the price of going insane.

[didserve]

Yawn!

More people die of spoiled milk than this hyped up flu media distraction!

[Forbus56]

The media have treated this "outbreak" of influenza like it's the Andromeda Strain. I wonder how many people in the US have died in the past two weeks from dysentery, e-coli, salmonella, etc., etc.

[emh1701]

I am tired of the media hype. Can we please stop the hype? I want to read things that sound reasonable, not alarmist.

[Revolution-Man]

What a big joke. The news media, of all stations, and the government, gets everybody worked up. Talk about a panic, thanks to them. Now the flu, H1N1, is not really that bad, thats a shocker. But the drugs that help you fight the flu..... shot up 800%. Imagine that.
Lets me know when its for the people, by the people,of the people, again. Revolution calling.

[whitemale08]

This is all a set-up for the NAU (North American Union)

Bush signed that SPP agreement with Canada and Mexico to put this nation under some 'global continent' structure to handle pandemics and any other emergency.

Can't you see?

The financial crisis is an excuse perpetrated by banksters on Wall Street/City of London to bring the United States under subjection to some super-state or the U.N. and WTO.

Then we're all supposed go 'green' to accept austerity and un-civilized way of life to pay for it through bank bail-outs!

Folks, either we stop this now by putting the entire Federal Reserve System into receivership and bankruptcy re-organization or WE WILL DIE under this NEW WORLD ORDER!

[silkibivi]

Oh stop! Would you rather be exposed to a virus that is potentially lethal without protection or stay paranoid? If it is a pandemic you are in big trouble.

[slantedview]

Shame, shame, shame on the media and the government for over-reporting and perpetuating mass hysteria about this type of flu by predicting it will become a pandemic and scaring the hell out of everyone by playing on their fears.

The people who are dying do not have access to health care or even over the counter medicines. You might die too if you had to ride a bus 40 miles to see a doctor who could not treat you because you could not afford the medicine to lessen the impact of a fever.

You don't get this from pigs and a mask will not protect you. The already infirmed, very young or very old are at the most risk from this... just like any other type of flu.

Read to be informed, use some common sense and don't panic. Running around shouting "the sky is falling" won't help anyone. Shame on the media.

[truthseeker60]

Here we go People, Heads up;:
t took corporate media swine flu hysteria to ram through a martial law bill in Massachusetts. S18 gives the Governor the power to authorize the deployment and use of force to distribute supplies and materials and local authorities will be allowed to enter private residences for investigation and to quarantine individuals.
us news Swine Flu Martial Law Bill Clears Massachusetts Senate

The Associated Press reports:
The Massachusetts Senate has unanimously passed a pandemic flu preparation bill that has languished in the Legislature before the recent swine flu outbreak.

[ubrew12]

If you don't close a school, and some kids catch this flu, and it kills them, you lose your job.

People are panicked because of what they DON'T know about this virus, like its mortality rate. All we know is that the regular flu, one that we have many antibodies against, kills 36,000 of us every year. Now, a new flu comes along, one that we have NO antibodies against, and we're supposed to take it easy? Sure, fine. But if I was a school administrator, and this showed up in my school, I'd close it. Not because of what I know, but because of what I DON'T know.

[everlaw01]

But if nothing is done....and a Republican is in office....the folks in the media goes nuts...

Because a Demo is in office....he will be given a pass on everything.

[mikesmith39]

"Nothing that modern medicine can do about it." Then try traditonal medicine.
Cure and prevention of the flu. Google "oil of oregano" or "Oreganol"
This has been known since 1910.