Scientist Claims He Predicted Italy Quake

Seismologist Demands Apology From Authorities He Says Ignored Warnings

(CBS)  An Italian seismologist tried to warn residents of L'Aquila of an impending major earthquake weeks before one devastated the town, but was ignored by authorities and reported to the police for spreading panic, Reuters reports.

A massive earthquake struck L'Aquila early Monday, killing at least 91, injuring 1,500 and leaving thousands homeless.

Weeks before, Goiacchino Giuliani, from the National Institute of Astrophysics, drove around in a van outfitted with a loudspeaker, warning residents to evacuate. His prediction was based on the large amount of radon gas in the area, but he was reported to authorities for "spreading alarm" and was forced to remove his evidence from the Internet, Reuters reports.

In the aftermath of the deadly quake, Giuliani has demanded an apology from officials who dismissed his warnings as scientifically unsound.

"Now there are people who have to apologize to me and who will have what has happened on their conscience," Giuliani told the website of La Repubblica.

But, as the New York Times points out, some scientists still question Giuliani's correlation between radon gas and impending earthquakes, saying that it is impossible to make accurate predictions.

"There have been earthquakes without the emission of radon gas just as there have been emissions of radon gas without earthquakes. Thus this method is far from perfect," Ignazio Guerra told Italian News agency ANSA.

Guerra said incorrect predictions "can be even more damaging than a real earthquake" because of the panic they can cause.

"To say that there will be an earthquake somewhere means nothing," Guerra said. "Predicting means indicating time, place and magnitude. At present it is impossible to do this."

On March 31, Italy's Civil Protection agency gathered scientists charged with assessing earthquake risks in an effort to reassure L'Aquila residents, Reuters reports

"The tremors being felt by the population are part of a typical sequence ... (which is) absolutely normal in a seismic area like the one around L'Aquila," the agency said in a statement before the meeting.

Surrounded now with questions of the government's dismissals of the warnings, Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi seemed defensive, Reuters reports. Berlusconi said officials should concentrate on relief efforts at present and "we can discuss afterwards about the predictability of earthquakes."

[rf35]

If you make enough predictions, you're bound to get at least one right. Maybe this works for some quakes, but there still seems a lot of unanswered questions. In any case, he should not have been forced to remove the evidence from the web. Driving about with a loudspeaker may have been a bit much. All and all, this whole mess seems to have been handled very poorly. One would almost thing the US FEMA was running the show.

[lami987]

Government should not have force Giuliani to remove his evidence from the internet. Instead government's scientists should provide evidence to counter Guiliani's and let people judge for themselves. I agree there is yet no 100% certainty in earth quake prediction.

[babooph]

I wonder if he predicted the future ? [Unlike the bible nuts who predict the past...]

[hetup-2009]

The poor fool that is dead and buried from the event would likely have wanted to know beforehand so they could make their own decision.

[DefendLiberty]

Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi seemed defensive, Reuters reports. Berlusconi said officials should concentrate on relief efforts at present and "we can discuss afterwards about the predictability of earthquakes."
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It's called "CYA". Italian government is an oxymoron.

[bbn55]

Thank you Mr. Ignazio Guerra for going it alone and trying to educate folks about earthquake precursors such as radon release. Until scientists understood how a tsunami wave was formed, the need for earthquake monitoring throughout the oceans was not important. For other kinds of precursors visit the International Society of Earthquake Precursors.