AP Fact Check: Obama Having It Both Ways?

A Look At Whether The President's Pleas For Patience Mesh With His Optimistic Projections

(AP)  President Barack Obama's plea Tuesday for patience in the economic turmoil fits with the view of most economists that a turnaround will take some time. It doesn't fit quite so neatly with his bullish budget.

The president's spending plans and deficit projections rest on the assumption that the economy will post solid growth next year after a mild, further decline this year. Many economists think that's too rosy.

Obama was more cautious than that in his prime-time news conference - possibly to the point of having it both ways.

A look at some of his statements and how they square with the facts:

THE CLAIM: "We will recover from this recession. But it will take time, it will take patience, and it will take an understanding that when we all work together, when each of us looks beyond our own short-term interests to the wider set of obligations we have to each other, that's when we succeed."

THE FACTS: No one really knows when the recession will end. But Obama's own budget forecasts the recession will continue through this year but with a relatively shallow 1.2 percent decline in the gross domestic product.

Then, the budget predicts solid 3.2 percent growth for 2010, followed by three years of more than 4 percent growth each year.

Christina Romer, head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said this week she was "incredibly confident" the U.S. economy will recover within a year.

Congressional Republicans and some Democratic budget hawks have suggested the Obama budget projections are unduly optimistic to make the math to pay for the president's programs work. The higher the GDP growth, the more tax revenues come in.

Meanwhile, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office last week predicted that the Obama budget would produce deficits averaging nearly $1 trillion over the next decade.

OBAMA: "In this budget, we have made the tough choices necessary to cut our deficit in half by the end of my first term even under the most pessimistic estimates."

THE FACTS: Not all credible estimates foresee a deficit halved in that time.

Obama's budget forecast a deficit of $530 billion by the end of 2013. That would cut by half the deficit he inherited at the start of his term. To succeed, Obama is counting on a recovered economy, a tax boost for the rich and success in easing foreign entanglements. But his assertion that he can accomplish that "even under the most pessimistic estimates" flies in the face of an answer he gave moments later.

The Congressional Budget Office forecasts that Obama's spending plan would leave a deficit of $672 billion by the end of 2013. Explaining the differences between his projections and CBO's, Obama said his administration projects a higher growth rate.

THE CLAIM: "Our assumptions are perfectly consistent with what blue-chip forecasters out there are saying."

THE FACTS: The Obama administration's economic growth projections are more optimistic over the next five years than those of the Blue Chip Consensus, a monthly average of 50 economic forecasts from the private sector.

The Blue Chip projection is for a deeper contraction this year than is foreseen by the administration - 1.9 percent versus 1.2 percent. Then it foresees growth of only 2.1 percent next year, instead of 3.2 percent, and less than 3 percent in each of the next three years, when the administration's forecasts are for 4 percent or better.

After 2015, the blue chip forecast is a little brighter than the administration's.

THE CLAIM: Obama repeated his assertion that his housing bailout will help "stabilize the housing market and help responsible homeowners stay in their homes."

THE FACTS: Even officials in his administration, many supporters of the plan in Congress and the Federal Reserve chairman have said some of the bailout money is bound to go to those who acted irresponsibly.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has said it's important for the nation to go ahead with the plan even though it means assistance will go to some who should have known better than to get in over their heads.

Sheila Bair, head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., made a similar point when she said it's "simply impractical" to examine every delinquent loan and weed out those taken by people who overstated their income or assets to get a mortgage they couldn't afford.

THE CLAIM: Responding to Republican critics in Congress who say his proposed budget carries an irresponsible deficit, Obama said, "I suspect that some of those Republican critics have a short memory, because, as I recall, I'm inheriting a $1.3 trillion deficit, annual deficit, from them."

FACT: Obama inherited a whopper of a deficit, much of it due to policies and spending led by Republican President George W. Bush. But the Congress, which authorizes spending and is not blameless in driving up deficits, was controlled by Democrats in the last two years of Bush's presidency.

Full Coverage Of Obama's Press Conference:

• By Topic: Budget | AIG Outrage | Tax Increases | Race | Mexican Drug Cartels | Israel | Funding For Veterans | Sacrifice


• Full Transcript


• Fact Check: Obama Having It Both Ways?


• Analysis: Press Conference Strategy | Philosophy Of Persistence | Grades From Marc Ambinder | Instant Reaction | Focus Group Weighs In | Reaction Around The Web, Readers


• Video:
  Recession To Recovery
  |
  Sacrifice
  |
  Budget
  |
  Stem Cells
  |
  Homeless Crisis

[spiritwalk]

guyfromPA, a few minutes on sports predictions vs. a few days/weeks clearing brush. You don't see the difference?
Posted by iDragon13
.............................................................
I don't see the difference either...and I don't see guyfromPA as defending Bush as you are trying to intimate.

guyfromPA is merely pointing out the hypocrisy of your critcizing one person and defendin another for the same behavior. He is not promoting the bible nor the 2nd Amendment.

The only biblical parallel I see in his statement is that these guys get on the campaign saying that when they get into office they will raise the dead and turn water into wine and when they get into office, instead of going out and walking on water as they said they would they just sit on the beach.

Then, people like you, who through the whole campaign went wild over these guys and voted for them because they said they were going to walk on water chastize us for wanting them to do what they said they would do.

Some of us actually think that people should be taken at their word and actually attempt, at least to do what they said they could do. Some of us actually think you shouldn't just say you can do things you can do to get elected when you can't do it. if you get up and say that we should trust you and thet you know what is going on and can handle it some of us get a bit upset when just 2 months later you come back and say its not your fault because you didnt know what was going on and you can't do anything about it. We kind of feel as if we gave you the trust you asked for an now we think you conned us.

AND...we don't like to heave the blame turned on us because we are asking you to live up to your word.

It doesn't matter if it is Obama or Bush or whomever came before them or who come after them...we are tired of being conned.

AND...we feel as if we are having our trust rubbed in our faces when we find out that instead of mapping out a plan for the economy you are showing off how you are mapping out your baskeball picks.

We're tired of trusting people who turn around and betray our trust and the spit in our faces and we ae tired of listening to you fools defend them by insulting us.

So iDragon13, f*%$ you and whatever donkey or elephant you rode in on.

[iDragon13]

guyfromPA, a few minutes on sports predictions vs. a few days/weeks clearing brush. You don't see the difference? He's doing his best with the hand that was dealt to him. I didn't realize the gauge of a presidency was the first 60 days. Do you call everyone an idiot with whom you disagree? It wouldn't be because you cling to your bible and guns with antipathy to those who are not like you, would it?

[ghwab1949]

At least some are now beginning to call President Obama the lying politician he is, We have no "hope" and nothing has "changed" except that different liars are in office now.

[iDragon13]

If anyone can recognize a lie or half-truth it is a Republican. They've been telling them for so long that it is like their second language.

[spiritwalk]

Is that what you do?

Do you sit down at the dining room table with your check book, and don't even look up from it for days at a time - no food, showers, bathroom breaks, etc?

At work, do you press your face to the computer screen, and type away furiously and frantically for hours at a time, never once stopping for coffee, to talk to your boss or a co-worker, or read an e-mail?

If true, it sounds like you suffer from compulsive obsessive disorder, and you shouldn't criticize Obama for not sharing your ailment.
Posted by hungry1968
...........................................
Absolutely! That is exactly what I do!

If I tell someone that I will help them with a problem and they are generous enough to grant me the trust to do it, then I do it.

If its tax time and I tell you that I am going to get your taxes done for you and come April 15th I tell you that I didn't have time to do it because I wanted to watch the play offs I don't think you'd be talking about me not being obsessive compulsive in getting your taxes done. I think that you would be trying to strangle me.

I'm sorry to have to point that out. I know you felt really superior at being able to come up with a counter point that used obsessive compulsive and sounded really intelligent. But, the cold hard fact is that if you promise to work hard and be focused on the task and ask to be trusted to do that and you do not do that, then be it Obama running the country or me doing your taxes makes no difference.

So, the next time you are waiting for someone to come and pick you up at the airport and they are 3 hours late because they had to finish watching the game, remember that it is better that they did not risk being compulsive about doing what you trusted them to do.

[clowry1611]

seems to me President Obama is not happy unless he is in front of a camara (with a teleprompter of course) giving these rather useless news conferences. Wow, like we really needed to hear one more time that he is angry over the AIG exec's bonuses. I mean the only meaningful thing to come out of this one was that he can be bested by reporters and will lose his cool with them when the perfect answers are not sitting on his teleprompter. dont get me wrong i was impressed he actually made a go at not using the prompters, but he flopped so i would imagine prompters will be back on the packing schedule from now on

[spiritwalk]

It is a self fulfilling issue. IF we work together on getting out of this bind, we CAN have significantly better days ahead. If we continue to argue and wallow in destructive criticism, we will not.
No one is asking that anyone buy into something that they do not believe in, but a bit of cooperative working together goes a long way to bringing us all to better times.
Posted by sjc_1
..................................
Being critical is not necessarily being destructive. And being destructive is not always negative. The reason that mankind has passed down through the ages such myths as the Phoenix arising from the ashes is that it is a universal truth that sometimes destruction leads to new ideas and new chances for growth.

What is always a negative is the fantasy of mans basic nature being one of cooperation and brotherhood. Mans basic nature was, is and always will be to steal his neighbors dime before working for a dollar. To deny that and sit there singing Kum Ba Yah and The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow is the past time of slaves and eunuchs.

The reason that America is even here is not because Washington and Franklin sat in the park afraid to criticize because it woud send out bad vibes, it is because they kicked a** and took names and acting throughly revolting. They didn't sit around drinking tea, they went out and threw the tea in the harbor.

Critcism is a dangerous path to take, but it is at least taking a path and the critics on a path are usually the ones who get things done, not the ones who sit quietly and talk about how nice it would be if we could all just come together.

[hungry1968-15]

Right now, with the state of the country I want a president who is so busy working on the problems that he doesn't even know the games are on. I don't want him figuring out sporting lines and memorizing speeches. All I want to hear from the White House right now is that Barack can't come out and play he is too busy doing his homework
Posted by spiritwalk at 9:31 AM : Mar 25, 2009





Is that what you do?

Do you sit down at the dining room table with your check book, and don't even look up from it for days at a time - no food, showers, bathroom breaks, etc?

At work, do you press your face to the computer screen, and type away furiously and frantically for hours at a time, never once stopping for coffee, to talk to your boss or a co-worker, or read an e-mail?

If true, it sounds like you suffer from compulsive obsessive disorder, and you shouldn't criticize Obama for not sharing your ailment.

[gold_standard]

Here's how it really works: the government is creating money out of thin air at a tremendous pace. This will lead to hyperinflation that will drive the value of the dollar to zero. Everything you have in the form of pensions, savings, retirement, and wages will become worthless and you will be impoverished.

The government will announce a new currency and wipe out all old dollars and start the process over again. This is how it has been done over and over in history. The key thing to remember is that you are going to lose everything and become impoverished.

[broadwayphi]

t was all there, right out in the open, but nobody wanted to look at it.
---Posted by spiritwalk



Take off your Rush Goggles.

Picture will clear amazingly.