Mac Turns 25 With Uncertain Future Ahead

Groundbreaking Product Considered The Soul Of Apple No Longer The Vehicle

(CNET)  This story was written by CNET's Tom Krazit.

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Twenty-five years after the debut of the Macintosh, the product that is the soul of Apple is not necessarily its vehicle to the future.

It was a quarter-century ago that Super Bowl XVIII viewers saw the now-famous introductory ad for Apple's Macintosh, formally released two days later. Apple had announced back in 1983 that the Macintosh was coming, but for many, that Sunday was their first look at the product that would drive Apple to new heights in the personal computer industry and usher in the graphical user interface as the standard way for regular people to interact with their computers.

These days, Apple is in a very different place. The company sold ten times as many iPods and iPhones in its first fiscal quarter as it does Macs; and it was a great year for the Mac. CEO Steve Jobs was so aware of this transformation in recent years that he announced in January 2007 that Apple Computer was no more; it's Apple Inc. these days.

More and more, it seems the iPhone is the future of Apple. Or, at least, the cutting-edge technology inside Apple, the project that everybody wants to work on, and that competitors strive to emulate. So what does that mean for the Mac over the next quarter century?.

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Click here for CNET's complete coverage of Mac at 25.

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In all honesty, few of us know. Certainly it would have been difficult for most people in the late 1980s watching Michael Douglas in Wall Street talk into a "mobile" phone the size of Shaquille O'Neal's basketball shoe to envision using a sleek handheld phone with all the computing power of the PCs of the day, and then some.

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As his daily segment for CBS station KCBS in San Francisco, Larry Magid spoke Thursday with co-anchors Patti Reising and Jeff Bell on the 25th anniversary of the Mac about what he thought back then and what the future holds. Click here to hear the broadcast.

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But the Mac is still very much part of Apple's mission: it ends every press release with the stock paragraph declaring "Apple ignited the personal computer revolution in the 1970s with the Apple II and reinvented the personal computer in the 1980s with the Macintosh. Today, Apple continues to lead the industry in innovation with its award-winning computers, OS X operating system and iLife and professional applications."

So let's consider the near-term future of the Mac; say 5 to 10 years from today.

Hardware

One look at our gallery of Macs through the years is enough to demonstrate just how far the personal computing industry has come from the days of bulky plastic and tiny screens to products like the MacBook Air.

Desktop computers seem likely to get smaller and larger; smaller in that people will consider even a Mac Mini too big for their home electronics cabinet, and larger in that they will get assimilated into various other household gadgets, such as televisions or home security systems. The other trend that will eventually come to roost is the home server, which is not for the faint of heart at the moment but seems eventually destined for every home. Apple will have some answer to that market as it develops, and they probably won't call it a server.

Smartphones like the iPhone are indeed all the rage, but they aren't going to displace notebook computers with real screens and real keyboards. Reasonable people can disagree on how big those screens and keyboards might be, but any real work or real entertainment will require something larger than a handheld gadget. The MacBook will continue to evolve with existing features like solid-state drives and multitouch gesture inputs joining science-fair projects like flexible displays and advanced voice-recognition technologies.

One of the main questions around the Mac in 2008 was whether or not Apple would bow to a coming recession by either cutting the price of its MacBooks or introducing a so-called Netbook. It's hard to imagine Apple fighting with its PC counterparts on the bargain shelves with the basic MacBook lineup, but if the cost of computing power continues to decline as performance flatlines, cost-cutting might happen on its own without poisoning Apple's margins. And few would be surprised to see Apple come out with its own take on the Netbook if the trend toward that style of computing keeps going, recent comments notwithstanding.

Software

There doesn't seem to be anyone able to step up and play third-fiddle to Microsoft and Apple in the personal computing operating system market within the next three to five years. These days, Linux development seems concentrated on the smartphone market, where it can be found at the heart of new products such as Google's Android, LiMo's software, and Palm's WebOS.

One of the strongest selling points for the Mac at present is the iLife suite, and it will be interesting to watch how Apple evolves that set of software. As the way we use computers evolves, Apple will need to tackle those new usage models in iLife: iPhoto, iMovie, and GarageBand will probably stick around, but iWeb and iDVD already seem like they could be replaced with more forward-looking products that help manage your home or car, for example.

Also, Apple will need to continue to improve the way its software works with the Internet, expanding on concepts like MobileMe. It's not hard to imagine the Mac of the future as a relatively thin client that does most of its work over a high-speed Internet connection, backed up by the aforementioned home server appliance that stores everything. Simplifying that kind of setup could be a huge part of iLife '12.

To be clear, these are all pretty safe evolutionary bets. That's sort of the point: the Mac is already a mature product, and over time it becomes harder to make revolutionary changes to products that have entrenched usage patterns.

That kind of action is happening in the mobile computing market, as the iPhone and iPod Touch turn into Apple's most influential products. Apple's recent decision to file for a trademark on the term "OS X," as distinct from Mac OS X, shows that in the future the company wants to draw an even clearer line between the Mac and the rest of its computers.

But what do you think? How will the Mac evolve over the next 25 years? Or is the Mac of the future today's iPhone? Please leave your suggestions below, and also check out the rest of our package on the 25th anniversary of the Mac, complete with reader stories, memories from the original Mac team, and pictures of Macs throughout the years.

[howulikethemapples]

I have had the new intel based macs since they have came out, none of them have ever crashed. Although every single pc i have ever owned has crashed and burned and ended up costing me the equivalent of its purchase price in repair bills, so in all actuality the pcs cost more in the course of their life than the slightly more expensive mac. I will never waist my money on a pc again. PCs like buying something from walmart, not worth the box it came in.

[idnnsg]

"No more crashing PC''s for me!"

Yes, now you can have a crashing Mac! How wonderful for you!

[rwsmith29456]

I don''t see how selling more $200 ipods compares to selling fully capable computer systems.

[daffy64]

I love my Mac. No more crashing PC''s for me!

[centerfall94]

If you run windows natively on mac branded hardware then you have a pc, not a macintosh. ;) Mac branded hardware is just expensive hardware now, Apple caved and now uses the intel architecture.

Regarding prices of apple machines vs pcs, I don''t need you to tell me anything. I just go to any online retailer and compare. That''s evidence enough for me to know your head is full of ... apples. ;)

[lantzn]

@Centerfall94

You obviously don''t know a thing about running Windows only games on a modern Mac.
http://www.apple.com/macosx/features/bootcamp.html

Not only can I run Windows virtually (NOT emulation by the way) on my Mac, but I can run it natively in all it''s un-glory.

And enough of the more expensive myth. If you deck out a commercial PC with equivalent hardware AND software as on a Mac the prices ARE comparable. I''m not talking about a hacked together PC that some nerd did in his basement counting his time as nothing. That type of PC is small in comparison with the real world where time IS money. My Mac MAKES me money.

[centerfall94]

On my vista64 system at home I can simultaneously run four linux virtual machines and a virtual machine of windows xp (just for grins) all over the base 64 bit vista system. It would certainly run MacOS too if Apple didn''t tie it to proprietary licensing to specific hardware, which, incidentally, is why they are so much more expensive.

Regarding emulators, they''re all fine and good until you try to do something really serious, like a current game. Try to fire up World of Warcraft on that windows emulator, then compare the performance of that against a Windows native machine with the same game.

Again, the only reason that Windows doesn''t run MacOS software in an emulator is because Apple doesn''t ALLOW it. Not because it can''t. And since Apple caved to an intel architecture, there arent many hardware differences between macs and pcs, but there IS a HUGE cost difference.

But the sheeple seduced by marketing will be parted with their money. Doesn''t bother me a bit.

[Kevin Boggs]

Well Centerfall94 since you want facts how about the fact that my Mac can run all of the Windows software you throw at is as well as any Mac stuff. Throw in Linux and I think I have a bigger software library than you. As for the iPhone being a copy of other technologies, I guess you''re right in a minimal way. Like so many PC guys you seem to see the components but not the total package. Who cares what you have under the hood if you can''t drive it to work? The iPhone integrates existing tech to create something new, it''s not just a shiny, shiny.

[Kevin Boggs]

Well Centerfall94 since you want facts how about the fact that my Mac can run all of the Windows software you throw at is as well as any Mac stuff. Throw in Linux and I think I have a bigger software library than you. As for the iPhone being a copy of other technologies, I guess you''re right in a minimal way. Like so many PC guys you seem to see the components but not the total package. Who cares what you have under the hood if you can''t drive it to work? The iPhone integrates existing tech to create something new, it''s not just a shiny, shiny.

[Kevin Boggs]

Well Centerfall94 since you want facts how about the fact that my Mac can run all of the Windows software you throw at is as well as any Mac stuff. Throw in Linux and I think I have a bigger software library than you. As for the iPhone being a copy of other technologies, I guess you''re right in a minimal way. Like so many PC guys you seem to see the components but not the total package. Who cares what you have under the hood if you can''t drive it to work? The iPhone integrates existing tech to create something new, it''s not just a shiny, shiny.

[centerfall94]

Apple circa 1985 = exciting.

It''s been downhill since then.

The macintosh had a good run, but now they''ve abandoned their processing platform in favor of PC''s intel, and - compared to windows - hardly anyone uses them. So great, you use a macintosh - wooop deee doo :) What you''re really saying is you spent a lot of money for a machine with not nearly as much software available for it as PCs. Just facts.

Now apple comes out with a walkman/cell phone, slaps a new label on it and calls it cool, and the sheeple buy it up. Silly. Innovative, if you want to call their marketing innovative - but it certainly isn''t their technology. And the best part? That this silly product completely eclipses the only product that was even mildly interesting to start with - the macintosh.

I forsee strong stock declines.

[ibzjem]

I learned Basic on an Apple IIe in high school a few moons ago. Later, windowz95 came out and was pretty innovative. Now I''m back to Mac and love it. Windowz is done in my house. I won''t go beyond XP.

I doubt Mac is going anywhere soon. Buy one. You won''t regret it. (... and it will run Windows better than any notebook if you must...)

[dlholland1]

I want a MacBookPro. Or just a MacBook.. I can''t afford them but I want one. One day.......

Happy birthday Mac!

[shaihalud-2009]

I use MACS and WINDOWS. But I love MACS and the spirit of Apple''s innovative products and how well people interact with them. iTunes is now DRM free (Thank you Steve Jobs), iPods are revolutionary, iPhone forced cell makers to stop making sh**ty products, and it just seems like Windows always wanted to be the MAC. Happy Birthday Apple!

[brainteaser2]

Hmm Microsoft cuts 5000 jobs and Apple has a record setting financial quarter but I''m supposed to believe that Mac''s future is uncertain?? Why is that.

Congrats Mac! I only see great things ahead for the company. And that is absolutely a fact knowing all brilliant minds behind the Mac have nothing to do but to think up wonderful new ways to use it. Progress and innovation will give us ALL advantages in years to come.
I still have my first 512k Mac all the way up to my G5 and I enjoy every one. Macs last forever!

[iuselogic]

del*l seems to kick a*ss. a single clicking mouse leaves me no option on the right for ''''options'''' hmmm

Posted by of11of at 11:11 AM : Jan 22, 2009

Actually, the apple mighty mouse (now standard) is a seemless design where if you click on the right side it selects, and if you apply pressure to the left side it gives you options. It''s pretty great.

[legacyabq]

***, I started on an apple ][ in 1981..

I dont even own a Mac now!
Oops!

[of11of]

! happy b-day mac.

i dont know why in the world i would ever use a mac?

del*l seems to kick a*ss. a single clicking mouse leaves me no option on the right for ''options'' hmmm

[barbaram99]

Happy Birthday Mac. I use Windows user. I have not ever used a Mac.