The World Wagers On Obama

Inauguration Snow? First-Term Impeachment? White House Puppy Named Joe The Plumber? Place Your Bets

(CBS)  By CBSNews.com's Stephen Smith

---

Barack Obama's parallels to Abraham Lincoln are well chronicled. They hail from the same state. Obama frequently invokes Lincoln's words. And the president-elect will be sworn in on the same bible used by Lincoln at his 1861 inauguration.

So it's a safe bet that Lincoln will be the first former president mentioned by Obama during his inaugural speech, right?

As it turns out, it is a safe bet - but not a profitable one.

In fact, the odds of Lincoln getting the first presidential shout-out are 10-11, according to BetUS Sportsbook. Want a better payout? Then put your money on FDR (3-2 odds) or George Washington (3-1).

Betting on American presidential politics - and Obama in particular - has spurred an avalanche of online wagers. Since such gambling is illegal in the U.S., offshore operations handle all the political parlays. Paddy Power, Ireland's biggest bookmaker, said that bettors gambled $3.4 million during the '08 presidential election. In the U.K., the tally was $8 million, according to MarketWatch.

While all major international political events draw betting interest, "the U.S. presidential election was by far the biggest in terms of money wagered," said Ken Robertson of Paddy Power.

Now that Obama's been elected, bookmakers have posted odds on a gamut of inauguration scenarios.

Consider this wager: How many times will Obama reference God during his inaugural address? (For the record, George Bush mentioned God three times in his last inauguration address; Bill Clinton invoked God once.)

Will precipitation dampen the inauguration? Odds of snow are listed at 5-4.

Soon you will also be able to wager on the color of Obama's inauguration tie, how many sips of water he takes, and how many times he mentions the word "change," said Robertson.

"We have a bunch of very creative people working with us who specialize in coming up with quirky bets," he said.

But the gambling menu doesn't end on January 20.

For example, you can bet on what the Obamas will name their puppy. (George leads the pack with 8-1 odds, while Joe the Plumber is 250-1). Who will play Obama in the film version of his life? (Will Smith is the current favorite while Dave Chappelle is a 33-1 long shot).

Not all the propositions are light-hearted, such as wagers on what will happen first under an Obama White House. Nabbing Osama bin Laden will land you 6-1 odds, whereas a ban on privately owned guns is 100-1.

Inevitably, some bets have veered controversial. Just after Obama won the election, Paddy Power posted 12-1 odds that the president-elect would "not finish his first term." Many saw the wager as a thinly veiled bet on whether he would be assassinated. After a flood of complaints, the bet was later clarified - that Obama would not finish his term due to impeachment or resignation.

"Even for us, betting on someone to be assassinated is way too much, in very bad taste and definitely not our style," Robertson said.

Odds on Obama have fluctuated over time. This time last year, you could have backed him at 2-1 to reach the White House (Hillary Clinton was the favorite back then, according to Paddy Power). But the return on investments shifted as dramatically as the poll numbers. By Election Day, Obama's odds of being the next U.S. president had skyrocketed to 1-50 - meaning a $50 bet would win you just a dollar. (By contrast, British gambling firm Ladbrokes posted McCain as a 13-2 underdog on Nov. 4.)

Gambling enthusiasts aren't the only ones betting on the president-elect; so is the U.S. online gambling industry. A 2006 law made online gambling illegal in the States, but some believe that Obama, a poker enthusiast himself, would be more gaming-friendly. In fact, you can get reasonably optimistic 6-1 odds that online gambling being legalized under Obama.

Rep. Barney Frank, who is pushing an amended online gambling resolution through Congress, thinks Obama will help unshackle the industry. He predicts the president-elect and a Democratic Congress will ease the Treasury's regulations on gambling-related transactions.

"With the Obama administration, you wouldn't see these bad regulations," Frank told Gambling 911 in November. "Clearly we have more support opposing (these attempts to stop regulation) with more Democrats in Congress. I wish it weren't an issue but the Republicans have made it one."

So are all Republicans pro-regulation when it comes to online gambling? Will the GOP be betting on Obama?

No one knows the numbers on partisanship in political wagering. But it is interesting to note where some in the GOP are flocking for Obama's inauguration: Las Vegas.

[ausus-2009]

erasmus606,

You are probably talking about the worst hospitals in Los Angeles and San Francisco. Their problem is they are being overrun by illegals from over the Mexican border. Canada is too far from Mexico to have that problem. The US has many great hospitals such as the Mayo Clinic, which is not that far from the Canadian border.

If you want to see shabby hospitals, go to England. I know of several that placed dead bodies in cabs to send them to funeral homes.

[erasmus606]

Have you dated A LOT of tow truck drivers?

No, we say "Us tow guys ALWAYS come prepared."

Posted by repo_man_08 at 01:39 PM : Jan 14, 2009

Nope, haven''t dated any tow truck drivers.

I have a cousin that is a tow truck driver. Come to think of it, he looks like maybe he''s always prepared for anything that comes his way.

[erasmus606]

I could tow you to PARADISE, baby! Paradise.

Posted by repo_man_08 at 01:23 PM : Jan 14, 2009

Uh-huh, that''s what all the tow truck drivers say.

[erasmus606]

"...but he praised the dedication of US doctors, the quality of the facilities and the quality control.

Posted by ausus at 06:56 AM : Jan 14, 2009

You can''t have good quality of facilities and quality control when your hospitals are privately owned.

I have read many articles on here where the hospitals are very dirty. People are dying from lack of care. Poor people are being put into a taxi, still in their hospital gowns, and dropped of on skid row.

[erasmus606]

I''''m the Repo Man

Posted by repo_man_08 at 10:08 AM : Jan 14, 2009

I''m thinkin'' you''re another whacko.:)

[matrixrx2003]

The World Wagers On Obama

Well I am GLAD that they World did not Wager on George W. Bush who knows where the human race would be right now if they did wager on Bushie.

[msay3]

Imitation is the best form of flattery...Imitating someone doesn''t mean you become that person...The problem as I see it is that Obama imitates Lincoln, Roosevelt, and anyone else that did great things...Seems as if he has a little trouble being Obama...

[brannigon]

Wager on Obama? This is a losing bet, people! Look at the screw ups already; the bad decisions and the clowns he''s picked for his "cabinet". Some don''t even qualify for the positions he put them in! And he''s not even officially in office yet! We''re going to find out that all the BS he handed out to get elected was true! It was all BS! God help us all!!!

[spiritwalk]

Why do conservatives hate America so much?
Posted by neocons_suck at 12:46 AM : Jan 14, 2009

We hate the dumb**** liberal democrats that want to give this country away to organizations like the ACLU, LaRacist, and their ilk.
Posted by theonesucks at 01:48 AM : Jan 14, 2009
..........................

''The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.'' (Winston Churchill)

[spiritwalk]

It does see like conservatives are pretty hateful towards everyone except other conservatives. Since America is the quintessential pluralistic melting pot, it does seem like they hate America.
Posted by enviro_wacko
------------------------------
America being the melting pot is in the same category as "all men are created equal". Sounds nice and we make our children learn it for civics tests, but it really isn''t part of the American psyche.
When Americans travel to another country for the first time and are given customs forms 9 times out of 10, under "nationality" they put their ethnic heritage.
In any Thanksgiving parade they have the Irish American continget marching under an Irish flag, the Italian American contingent marching under an Italian flag and so on and so on. The only ethnic group not marching are the Native American becuase they didn''t have a flag. they only had the land that the other coningents march onto and planted their flags.
The only people who wave the American flag are politicians, who just stick them in their lapels to distract the voters from the issue that they want the Cuban vote in Florida and the Mexican vote in California.
There is no great American melting pot, just a lot of little ethic pots who are trying to have more in their pots than all the others.

[ausus-2009]

enviro_wacko,

Your comment applies even more so to intolerant liberals who want to turn the US into a pale copy of Sweden.

[ausus-2009]

erasmus606,

It was part of a larger story and a series of interviews. He was also critical of US medicine in its being controlled by insurance companies, but he praised the dedication of US doctors, the quality of the facilities and the quality control.

I spoke to several doctors who had practiced in Canada, from one still practicing there to one who practiced there 40 years ago. I also spoke to patients who had experienced the highs and lows of Canadian medicine.

[gin_rummy-2009]

Abraham Lincoln was born in Kentucky and he spent the first 7 years of his life in Kentucky. How is he "from" Illinois?

[enviro_wacko]

neocons - It''''s not that we hate this great country. We hate the dumb**** liberal democrats that want to give this country away to organizations like the ACLU, LaRacist, and their ilk. We''''ll see how hard you apes are beating your chests a year from now when Obama has backtracked on the rest of his campaign promises. You democrats were so caught up in the hoopla during the campaign you failed or refused to realize that Obama''''s nothing more than another corrupt Chicago politician full of BS, who would say anything to achieve his personal goals. The only thing Obama cares about is his own place in history. It doesn''''t matter how bad this fool screws up in the next four years, you libs will give him a free pass like you did with Clinton.

Posted by theonesucks at 01:48 AM : Jan 14, 2009

It does see like conservatives are pretty hateful towards everyone except other conservatives. Since America is the quintessential pluralistic melting pot, it does seem like they hate America.

[erasmus606]

Why do conservatives hate America so much?

Posted by neocons_suck at 12:46 AM : Jan 14, 2009

Another whacko.

[erasmus606]

I have worked as a journalist in six countries, and have been an editor for 13 years. I am now editing a medical journal.

Posted by ausus at 01:19 AM : Jan 14, 2009

If you are truly a journalist, then you should know better than to just interview ONE doctor. You should be interviewing several doctors. And not just from one city in one province. This guy could have some personal agenda going on.

[ausus-2009]

neocons_suck,

Siam became Thailand in 1954.

I have worked as a journalist in six countries, and have been an editor for 13 years. I am now editing a medical journal. I have also edited newspapers, hospital publications and a (car) racing magazine.

With your limited grasp of the language, I wonder if you made it out of high school.

[neocons_suck]

As a journalist who has worked in many countries as well as the US, I can say without equivocation that the US has more free speech than any other country in the world.

Posted by ausus at 01:03 AM : Jan 14, 2009

Sure you are. And I''m the Queen of Siam.

Why do conservatives hate America so much?

[ausus-2009]

neocons_suck,

Why do you hate free speech (as exemplified in your repeat entries)?

As a journalist who has worked in many countries as well as the US, I can say without equivocation that the US has more free speech than any other country in the world.

[neocons_suck]

neocons_suck,

Are you talking about America as it is, was or how it exists in your dreams?

Posted by ausus at 12:48 AM : Jan 14, 2009

Conservatives are the ones who only love the nostalgic version of America that never really existed outside of their dreams. The real America, conservatives hate because of it''s plurality and diversity of thought.