The World Wagers On Obama

Inauguration Snow? First-Term Impeachment? White House Puppy Named Joe The Plumber? Place Your Bets

(CBS)  By CBSNews.com's Stephen Smith

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Barack Obama's parallels to Abraham Lincoln are well chronicled. They hail from the same state. Obama frequently invokes Lincoln's words. And the president-elect will be sworn in on the same bible used by Lincoln at his 1861 inauguration.

So it's a safe bet that Lincoln will be the first former president mentioned by Obama during his inaugural speech, right?

As it turns out, it is a safe bet - but not a profitable one.

In fact, the odds of Lincoln getting the first presidential shout-out are 10-11, according to BetUS Sportsbook. Want a better payout? Then put your money on FDR (3-2 odds) or George Washington (3-1).

Betting on American presidential politics - and Obama in particular - has spurred an avalanche of online wagers. Since such gambling is illegal in the U.S., offshore operations handle all the political parlays. Paddy Power, Ireland's biggest bookmaker, said that bettors gambled $3.4 million during the '08 presidential election. In the U.K., the tally was $8 million, according to MarketWatch.

While all major international political events draw betting interest, "the U.S. presidential election was by far the biggest in terms of money wagered," said Ken Robertson of Paddy Power.

Now that Obama's been elected, bookmakers have posted odds on a gamut of inauguration scenarios.

Consider this wager: How many times will Obama reference God during his inaugural address? (For the record, George Bush mentioned God three times in his last inauguration address; Bill Clinton invoked God once.)

Will precipitation dampen the inauguration? Odds of snow are listed at 5-4.

Soon you will also be able to wager on the color of Obama's inauguration tie, how many sips of water he takes, and how many times he mentions the word "change," said Robertson.

"We have a bunch of very creative people working with us who specialize in coming up with quirky bets," he said.

But the gambling menu doesn't end on January 20.

For example, you can bet on what the Obamas will name their puppy. (George leads the pack with 8-1 odds, while Joe the Plumber is 250-1). Who will play Obama in the film version of his life? (Will Smith is the current favorite while Dave Chappelle is a 33-1 long shot).

Not all the propositions are light-hearted, such as wagers on what will happen first under an Obama White House. Nabbing Osama bin Laden will land you 6-1 odds, whereas a ban on privately owned guns is 100-1.

Inevitably, some bets have veered controversial. Just after Obama won the election, Paddy Power posted 12-1 odds that the president-elect would "not finish his first term." Many saw the wager as a thinly veiled bet on whether he would be assassinated. After a flood of complaints, the bet was later clarified - that Obama would not finish his term due to impeachment or resignation.

"Even for us, betting on someone to be assassinated is way too much, in very bad taste and definitely not our style," Robertson said.

Odds on Obama have fluctuated over time. This time last year, you could have backed him at 2-1 to reach the White House (Hillary Clinton was the favorite back then, according to Paddy Power). But the return on investments shifted as dramatically as the poll numbers. By Election Day, Obama's odds of being the next U.S. president had skyrocketed to 1-50 - meaning a $50 bet would win you just a dollar. (By contrast, British gambling firm Ladbrokes posted McCain as a 13-2 underdog on Nov. 4.)

Gambling enthusiasts aren't the only ones betting on the president-elect; so is the U.S. online gambling industry. A 2006 law made online gambling illegal in the States, but some believe that Obama, a poker enthusiast himself, would be more gaming-friendly. In fact, you can get reasonably optimistic 6-1 odds that online gambling being legalized under Obama.

Rep. Barney Frank, who is pushing an amended online gambling resolution through Congress, thinks Obama will help unshackle the industry. He predicts the president-elect and a Democratic Congress will ease the Treasury's regulations on gambling-related transactions.

"With the Obama administration, you wouldn't see these bad regulations," Frank told Gambling 911 in November. "Clearly we have more support opposing (these attempts to stop regulation) with more Democrats in Congress. I wish it weren't an issue but the Republicans have made it one."

So are all Republicans pro-regulation when it comes to online gambling? Will the GOP be betting on Obama?

No one knows the numbers on partisanship in political wagering. But it is interesting to note where some in the GOP are flocking for Obama's inauguration: Las Vegas.

[evian_ycnan]

33-1
Obama will be impeached during 1st term

Worst bet possible.

The 33:1 is driven by the Republiscum wingnuts who think Bush was the greatest President and the actual odds of it happening 100,000:1

[cmc1227]

I believe he will do well but people have set the bar so high for him he will never live up to their expectations.

[bigal321321]

Eliphord.....just short of a racist statement. But then Dave Chappelle would find it funny. He would probably even put it on his TV show.

[cariboubarbi]

Obama already f*cked up the stock market. What can he ruin next?

Posted by Eliphord at 12:19 PM : Jan 13, 2009



Next you''ll be blaming him for the skid marks in your underwear Skippy.

lol!

[yam250]

What did Obama have to do with the stock market. I can not believe the stupid people out there. Maybe Enron was his fault too.

[hawksprings]

I hope and pray and am doing my best snow dance so that on Jan. 20th, Washington DC has the biggest blizzard on record.
With Algore there in the front row freezing his behonkas off.
HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!

[drinuk]

Rharrin1 The demise of the Stock Market and America''s financial independence lies firmly at the door of the Zionists. Hopefully Obama will takes steps against them as I''m sure Gates will.

Follow the Money to Tel Aviv !

[centerfall94]

I hope and pray and am doing my best snow dance so that on Jan. 20th, Washington DC has the biggest blizzard on record.
With Algore there in the front row freezing his behonkas off.
HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!

Posted by HawkSprings at 01:13 PM : Jan 13, 2009

That''s because you''re a poor bitter, neocon loser who has nothing left to hope for except bad weather. Pathetic much? LOL!

[drinuk]

Sorry that comment should have been directed at Idiot Eliphord

[erasmus606]

With Algore there in the front row freezing his behonkas off.

Posted by HawkSprings at 01:13 PM : Jan 13, 2009

Well at least you give him credit for having some.

Actually I was going to say something else, but it was a little bit nasty.:)

[pizzanick]

What has this guy done that even compares to Lincoln. Lincoln led the country through a civil war where over 600,000 people lost their lives. The worst this guy has had to deal with has been to live without his blackberry.

[jerryspoor]

Obama Odds! Sorry CBS but I have better things to do than gamble on the words he will start his speech with.

[ldvuong]

The world will be disappointed, as he is inexperienced and unqualified.

[clowry1611]

makes you wonder how bad the economy is if there are idiots out there betting on which prez gets the first shout out

[jerryspoor]

For the sake of the pessimists let%u2019s hope Obama will make at least one blunder so they will have something to be thankful for a basis for contentment.

[max0010]

The Military Times (the online resource for everything Military) http://militarytimes.com/forums/showthread.php?p=175964 has articles NOW concerning the ineligibility of Mr. Obama becoming the Commander in Chief. The Military is sworn to uphold and defend the Constitution will not follow this man who claims he is President. A fraud has been committed on the American public. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and others in successor in the line to be President have knowledge of this fraud and have complied with it. America could have another CIVIL WAR on its hands if they do not push Mr. Obama to spend $10.00 and get a copy of his original birth certificate to stop the unrest. Why won%u2019t he do this? Does he want to tear apart America? Why isn%u2019t the news researching this situation? Are you afraid of Mr. Obama and the Democratic impact? The Certification of Birth is given to ANYONE that is born outside the US in Hawaii, up to one full year after birth, after requested by only one parent, without any verification. Mr. Obama%u2019s sister has this same Certification of Birth in Hawaii and she was born in Indonesia (proven fact).

[erasmus606]

The world will be disappointed, as he is inexperienced and unqualified.

Posted by LDVUONG at 01:28 PM : Jan 13, 2009

I really doubt the world will be disappointed.

And he may be a little inexperienced, but he has surrounded himself with people that can make up for that. Let''s put it this way, at least you have a president now that is thinking of the American PEOPLE. That''s more than you have had in the past 8 years. AND more than you would have had if McCain had gotten in.

[clowry1611]

how long do you deem it necessary to bash bush??? i mean get off it, he made some mistakes, and some of this junk was in motion before he ever took office. I voted mccain because i do not trust obama. I will support obama as my president and will pray that he has the wisdom needed to put us on the right track. same thing i did for bush when i voted for him. you see not all of us repub''s from the south are gun totin'' racists. gun totin'' yes, but not all racists, lol. i have long said if colin powell would run i would gladly punch that ballot for him.

[nickyjam305]

12-1 odds for legalizing the herb!!! NICE!!!
8 years ago it was 1,000,000,000,000 to 1!

LEGALIZE IT, DONT CRITICIZE IT!

[txlakeside]

ROFLMAO ... experienced??????? Reagan and the SHRUB were both just dumb as dirt! That kind of experience helped them little! Both were GOVs and actors that played with no "real" experience just the "like me" card. Bush was worthless as GOV and so was Reagan ... Experienced at playing to an audience ... ROFLMAO!

[happyass3]

I think we need to give Obama the benefit of the doubt. He is not even president yet and people still continue to bash him. As for him not being born in America, that is just a lot of ***. I honestly think that if there were real proof out there then someone would come forward with it. Until then it is all speculation. I think the law that the president has to be a natural born citizen is *** anyway. I''m sure it made sense back in the day because our founding fathers probably didn''t want any English sympathizers to become president but in this day and age, it just doesn''t make any sense any more.

[toolmangler-2009]

What are the odds that 95% of the predictions are wrong?

[mjm117]

The top nominees for the George W. Bush-inspired flavor at Ben and Jerry''s.
Cluster Fudge
Iraqi Road
Nut''n Accomplished
Chock ''n Awe
Grape Depression
Chimp-Peach
Heck of a Job, Brownie!
2 Terms 1 Nut
The Housing Crunch
Banana Republic
Guantanmallow
Chunky Monkey in Chief
Osama Split

[b4ucmyi]

Even odds: The Federation of North America will replace Canada, Mexico and the United States five minutes after Obama takes office.

[beader59]

Were there these kind of bets with previous president-elects?

[mjm117]

Posted by peace4321 at 02:45 PM : Jan 13, 2009

If your dubya made it through 8 without being impeached, what makes you think Obama will?

[erasmus606]

For the NEXT FOUR YEARS, THE DEMOCRATS WILL BE TO BLAME FOR EVERYTHING!!!

Posted by repo_man_08 at 01:52 PM : Jan 13, 2009

I don''t think there can be any "blame" in trying to do the best you can for the American people.

[yam250]

I bet in 2012 there will be such an outcry for him to be reelected no one will want to run against him. he will win reelection 2012 BIG. Because things can only get better and people are pissed about the last 8 years.

[credibility2]

Those who constantly harp about the last eight years are obviously much too young to recall other times and presidencies when things weren''t rosy and good and plenty. To these whiners I say, grow up and read history book and join reality. Let''s see many of these are kids in their twenties, which would have made them pre-teen at the start of the current President Bush.

[credibility2]

Yes, both Dem and Repub presidents have failed and in varying degrees. Regardless of one''s age, history has taught us nothing.

[bobnjersey]

[I''''m willing to go with that bet, not because Obama will actually do anything, but because he will do as close to NOTHING as possible.]
[Posted by Eliphord at 03:09 PM : Jan 13, 2009]

why couldn''t this have been the strategy implemented by gwb? if he had done this all his life ... there would be much less failure ''left'' in his wake.

[brannigon]

AMERICA''S SUPER HERO IS NOT GOING TO BE ABLE BACK UP ALL THE BS THAT HE USED TO GET HIM ELECTED! HE''S ALREADY SAYING THAT HE''S GOING TO DELAY SOME OF THE PROMISES HE MADE TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE! THIS GUY IS LIVING A PIPE DREAM AND SO ARE THE GULLIBLE AMERICAN PEOPLE WHO EASILY FALL FOR A GOOD LINE OF BS! THEY''RE ALREADY TRYING TO CALL HIM THE NEXT ABRAHAM LINCOLN! INSULTING! HE HASN''T FREED ANYBODY, AND HE DOESN''T HAVE THE INTEGRITY IN HIS WHOLE BODY THAT LINCOLN HAD IN HIS LITTLE FINGER! PT BARNUM WAS RIGHT; THERE''S A SUCKER BORN EVERY MINUTE AND AMERICA IS FULL OF THEM! GOD HELP US ALL!!!

[pfness]

I''''d hate to say this, but I don''''t think Obama is smart enough for that. He''''s just a puppet with about 40 Democrat hands stuffed in his a s s.
Posted by Eliphord

________________________________________________

He doesn''t have to be smart, just willing to compromise on everything from moral issues to terrorism.

[brannigon]

America has gone Hollywood! This is all a big fantasy. Its time the American people wake up out of their stupor and see the reality of what is really going on! Wake up America!!!

[pfness]

Sorry epi your group does not allow white democrat catholics. Only white evangelical skinhead republicons such as yourself.
Posted by demswin08

_________________________________________________

White Democrat Catholics? Can you say Democrat and Catholic in the same breath? Democrats kill babies and promote the practice of it through abortion.
JFK would be rolling over in his grave the way Democrats have bowed to the moral decay of this nation. JFK would probably be a republican today.

[pfness]

Wake up America!!!
Posted by brannigon

___________________________________

LOUDER....
You have to shout it!!
WAKE UP AMERICA!!!!!!!!!

[spiritwalk]

By constantly comparing Obama to the image of Lincoln you are creating expectations for him that even Lincoln couldn''t fulfill.

Obama will fall, even farther than Bush, because you are placing him on a pedestal of dreams and illusions and not reality.

[pfness]

No, he would never name his DOG Lincoln. He probably likes Lincoln.
He would name it something that he "doesn''t" like.
Like...

"Get off that couch, Walker"!!!
or
"Get out there and bite that reporter, Sarah".
or
"I''m going to hit you with this newspaper, Cain"

But, I don''t have a dog so maybe I really don''t quite understand the concept.

[nikosk11]

AMERICA''''S SUPER HERO IS NOT GOING TO BE ABLE BACK UP ALL THE BS THAT HE USED TO GET HIM ELECTED! HE''''S ALREADY SAYING THAT HE''''S GOING TO DELAY SOME OF THE PROMISES HE MADE TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE! THIS GUY IS LIVING A PIPE DREAM AND SO ARE THE GULLIBLE AMERICAN PEOPLE WHO EASILY FALL FOR A GOOD LINE OF BS! THEY''''RE ALREADY TRYING TO CALL HIM THE NEXT ABRAHAM LINCOLN! INSULTING! HE HASN''''T FREED ANYBODY, AND HE DOESN''''T HAVE THE INTEGRITY IN HIS WHOLE BODY THAT LINCOLN HAD IN HIS LITTLE FINGER! PT BARNUM WAS RIGHT; THERE''''S A SUCKER BORN EVERY MINUTE AND AMERICA IS FULL OF THEM! GOD HELP US ALL!!!

Posted by brannigon at 03:34 PM : Jan 13, 2009

Even if - just if - Obama sits on his a$$ and does NOTHING, it will be the he*ll of a lot more than this Texas Moron has done to my country.

[nikosk11]

A Sampling of Obama Betting Odds:
2-1
Rain during the inauguration speech!!

Gee, how smart. Let''s see. It is happening in DC and it is January. OK Nostradamus, you winn.

[pfness]

Obama will fall, even farther than Bush, because you are placing him on a pedestal of dreams and illusions and not reality.
Posted by spiritwalk

__________________________________________________

No illusions here...he can hit the ground as fast as the next guy. But any politician doesn''t fall on his own. He has help. It just depend on whether the help wants you to stand or fall. Sometimes they just need a ''fallguy''. I can''t believe anybody would even WANT that job.

[mjlewis6]

Odds are the US will mass troops on both AFghanistan borders to effect a political climate for Middle East Peace talks for Palestine/Israel by pressuring both Taliban/Al Quaeda in the Eastern border with Pakistan and Hezbollah/Hamas on the Western border/Iran.

I am not talking a small number and NOT National Guard. National Draft to draw down unemployment and National Works Projects for the older workers in the slow market.

There will be a push politcally to end the war on terror overseas, and then a military push to confirm the end of it, and NO OCCUPATION.

[likeitis5050]

The day both parties can''t wait for...inauguration. The day the followers start their count down to disappointments they will refuse to acknowledge so long as they have breath and the day the rest of us have to bite our lips to keep from saying again and again...''I told you so.''

[rhs648]

Lets hope that the world isn''t dissappointed. If Obama made too many campaign promises that he can''t fulfill, many people may turn against him.

[ken1dall]

"Clouds of incense often conceal feet of clay"

[renojmc]

2:1 odds that Obama ends up the worst president in American history.

[jamster31]

What are the odds that Obama will not be able to keep more then 2 champaign promises?


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Posted by ewe_fools at 05:33 PM : Jan 13, 2009
+ report ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I''m sure he''ll drink lots of it

[jamster31]

2:1 odds that Obama ends up the worst president in American history.


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Posted by renojmc at 05:12 PM : Jan 13, 2009
+ report abuse


I''m sure Bush will hold that title for a long time

[tangouniforn]

Methinks someone has been too long out amoung the sheep.

[wobxw]

LET HIM PROVE HIMSELF IN THE OFFICE OF PRESIDENT BEFORE PASSING JUDGEMENT.