Dec. 27, 2008
'09 Jobs Outlook: Bleak, Especially Early
The Early Show: Leading Employment Analyst John Challenger Gazes Into Crystal Ball
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(CBS/AP)
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Interactive On The Job Explore America's labor economy, track recent major layoffs and meet key economic players.
John Challenger, CEO of global outplacement consulting firm
"2009 should be better, maybe in the second half of the year, but probably the first half is going to be more of the same."
There have been more than 1,000,000 job cuts this year, a five-year high.
Some economists are anticipating that unemployment, which currently stands at a national average of 6.7 percent, will reach as high as 9.0 percent before it starts to retreat. If that happens, it would be the highest jobless rate since 1983, says the firm.
And, despite the incoming Obama administration's expected massive economic stimulus package, "Job market conditions are expected to remain bleak in 2009. In fact, job cuts are likely to surpass 1,000,000 again next year, as employers continue to adjust payrolls in light of weak consumer and corporate spending," the company adds.
What's more, "It is important to remember that the beginning of an expansion does not bring instant job creation. After the last recession officially ended in November 2001, the unemployment rate continued to rise, peaking at 6.3 percent in June 2003. We are already beyond that point, and most experts consider this recession to be in its nascent stages," Challenger, Gray and Christmas points out.
Challenger himself told Hill, "The government has been taking extraordinary actions this year to try to repair the banking system by adding more money into the money supply, but the next administration, the Obama administration, is going to do a fiscal stimulus package, building roads and bridges and ports and schools and hospitals in a way that's just unprecedented, and that could add jobs, especially because the local governments that get the money have to spend the money or they lose it. All that's going to help jobs in a big way in 2009."
Still, experts agree that the effects of the stimulus package will take time to worth their way through the economy.
Challenger volunteered some job-seeking advice, stressing that job searchers "need to get a fast start. You cannot wait in this job market. New year. Great resolution: Get at it. Be open to changing industries. We see about 40 percent of people say (they will) leave automotive or banking and go into some of these healthy industries, like healthcare and energy, education. ... Look for industries that are healthy and get at that search."
His company is offering its services free Monday and Tuesday. The firms say it will "suspend normal business operations on December 29 and 30 to take phone calls from anyone needing job-search advice.
"The annual two-day national job search call-in will run from 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. Central Standard Time both days. The telephone number is 312-332-5790."
"This is a once-a-year opportunity for anyone to take advantage of our counselors' expertise. Our services typically are available only to those who lose their jobs and are sent to us by the former employer. With the current state of the economy and mounting job losses, we expect phone lines to be busy this year," the company says.
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- People might be looking in the wrong places...there are lots of jobs in the NPS and Forestry service, wildland fire, etc.
And these aren''t sit-on-your-butt jobs, either! - Reply to this comment
- Only a fool would follow this stupid logic and Obama cant do anything cause the monetary system is forged currencyPosted by WarDogLRS at 08:21 PM : Dec 27, 2008
The government does continually "create jobs" it was done during the new deal with tons of service projects (Army corps of engineers and building highways, parks and infrastructure) in addition, the government has ALWAYS been involved in creating jobs--if you review the books of most fortune 100 and 500 corps, you will find their biggest customer for pharmaceuticals, raw material and services is--THE GOVERNMENT. Get a clue--and while you are at it, learn that the idea of monetary value and currency AND the stock market are ALL illusion based upon an agreed upon principle: That fake currency or a monetary system of some sort would represent, and could be used to leverage and serve as instruments to convey wealth. Even gold is technically worthless--it only has value because like paper money, the world has agreed to recognize it as having a value. All this was done, because it took too much trouble to tote around veggies, chickens and other things to barter--so now we use money--and the system only works as long as each country invests, believes in and employs that system--which is why we stopped trading in beads, shells, people and tulip bulbs and moved on to paper currency and a faux stock market. - Reply to this comment
- I, for one, feel very confident that with Obama at the helm we will navigate these treacherous waters and America will be great again.
God bless America.
Posted by nowaymcgoo at 06:56 PM : Dec 27, 2008
As long as America destroys other countries based on lies and hides behind pride, war and greed, she will NOT be blessed. For reference, take a gander at Revelations Chapter 18. America is getting what is called a "comeuppance". And we still don''t have the sense to repent. - Reply to this comment
- Posted by dzemog1 at 11:49 PM : Dec 27, 2008
Nice...except the problem is far uglier and deeper than that. Let''s use your analogy: We are the horse--led to water?
1. Where the President told us we must drink--or else the economy would collapse--and it all depended on us
2. Where Congress got rid of the regulations so corps started polluting the water we were led to drink
3. Where the hospitals and others charged exorbitant rates and gave bad service to handle all the "sick horses" harmed by the polluted water
4. Where wall street siphoned off mosts of the water in the spring so it became a salt lick and could not slake our thirst or pay our bills...
You forget that not only can businesses not get credit--people are ending upside down on mortgages and house loans, their savings have been destroyed or severely damaged by Wall street games and on top of that lay offs are looming--multi pronged.
Add to that gas and food at 400% increase from 1999, coupled with fees, taxes etc hidden in all utility and service bills and no wonder so many cannot pay their mortgages--and it gets worse than that--food is now being kept on the shelves of many stores past the freshness/spoilt date--which means we will be entering the times of rotten veggies and meat for sale, wormy meal and flour and food lines--even for those of us who still have jobs...Inflation with wars without end costing 10 billion a month will do that to ya. - Reply to this comment
- They are lying., If the true jobless numbers were used (include those who are no longer counted or who have fallen off the radar --not counted after unemployment runs out or 90 days after layoffs) then the numbers are more like:
We are at about 12 to 15% unemployment. To be "almost as bad as the Depression" obviously the numbers would have to approach 25 to 33%. - Reply to this comment
- So much for change. It''s the same old game. Sounds like pork barrel spending with money from printed on the office copier. Face it- this country is broke!
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- Or was it destruction? all the better for construction.
This is just Obama going thru the motions of doing something for the people who so hopefully elected him.
What we need is affordable housing and jobs not the ability to take out humungous loans to enrich fat bankers. When you buy a house with a mortage after all is paid off it would have cost roughly 3 times the cash price (depends on the interest rate). Thats money gone from your pocket into theirs. Its a disgusting system and shamefull. Personally I think I house should cost no more than 2 x the average income. A price that an astute worker could save in a few years of moderate sacrifice.
The thing is the government and banks want you in constant debt. The cycle must be broken. This was a chance and it has been squandered by placing unheard of debt on the future populace or if the government defaults: bobs also your uncle. - Reply to this comment
- Or was it destruction? all the better for construction.
This is just Obama going thru the motions of doing something for the people who so hopefully elected him.
What we need is affordable housing and jobs not the ability to take out humungous loans to enrich fat bankers. When you buy a house with a mortage after all is paid off it would have cost roughly 3 times the cash price (depends on the interest rate). Thats money gone from your pocket into theirs. Its a disgusting system and shamefull. Personally I think I house should cost no more than 2 x the average income. A price that an astute worker could save in a few years of moderate sacrifice.
The thing is the government and banks want you in constant debt. The cycle must be broken. This was a chance and it has been squandered by placing unheard of debt on the future populace or if the government defaults: bobs also your uncle. - Reply to this comment
- I dont see how this spending on infrastructure is going to help the average Joe. Sure contruction firms and workers will be laughing at the people in the employment lines, but do they really expect a laid off sales person to get a labourers job fixing bridges? because thats all they''ll be qualified for.
Most likely if they need more qualified construction workers they will bring em in from Mexico or Canada.
It wont help joe the plumber or white collar firees, its hard to see how other than construction companies and related industries (construction machinery) anyone else could benefit.
Sure the repaired bridges, roads and water pipes will benefit all in the end in the future.
Right now savvy elites are probablly buying shares in construction companies and caterpillar et. al. Cheneys companies are probablly diversifying into construction, oh! but wait was not he already into that? - Reply to this comment
- "All this back and forth isn''''t going to solve anything. Your frustation is because most of you feel that you didn''''t do anything to deserve this, and you didn''''t."
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If only this were true. Sure, there is a small percentage of people who probably had almost nothing to do with any of this. These are the people that live cash-only lives, don''t charge their lifestyles on credit cards and don''t buy things they can''t afford. The rest of us are learning the hard way why buying your image and lifestyle with borrowed money is a bad idea. Most of us do it. We buy things to make ourselves look better to the outside world, and to feel better about ourselves and more important. We buy designer labels in everything from shoes to cars to satisfy our appetite for "status", and we''ve taught our children to expect everything while earning nothing, and to grow up to be just as irresponsible as we''ve been. We haven''t all been guilty to the same degree, but we''re all guilty. We can''t blame everything on greedy Wall Street and bank execs, government, and Corporate America. It''s true they encouraged us to do it. If we were "the horse", you could say they "led the horse to water". Still, it was our choice to drink. Most of us did. We all own this problem, and we will all own some part of the solution. - Reply to this comment
- Since Keynes argued for ''''trickle up'''' (the assumption that money in the hands of consumers was necessary to create profits for businesses, which in turn would create jobs), I am mystified as to why you would include him in your list of ''''trickle down'''' adherents that are now discredited.
''''Splain, Lucy.
Posted by ofbyfor3 at 03:27 PM : Dec 27, 2008--
Because Maynard Keynes believed that to ''trickle-up'' you need private-central-banks to supply the credit,
and the credit supplied is for consumers to borrow and spend.
That won''t work when a consumer led economy is in recession. It will work temporarily if the economy was let''s say 72% production and 28% consumption, but even then it''s doubtful.
Maynard Keynes was the governor of the central bank of England. He was basicly a British agent who unlike misinformation from the media,
was against Roosevelt''s idea of a 2 tier credit system that would at least dis-incentivise consumption and reward investment in production and development.
If Obama would abolish the Federal Reserve and Congress nationalize the ''utter'' of credit like the Constitution says,
then he could go back and invest the 1.5 trillion in production and development and wouldn''t have to worry about the money evaporating in hyper-inflation. - Reply to this comment
- nowaymcgoo says:
The new administration''''s plan to invest in infrastructure jobs is the best and fastest way to right this listing ship.
Since when did Government invest money?
Government spends money after they steal it from your wages. This kind of thinking is what am talking about here Government cant provide for you. You provide for you not Government - Reply to this comment
- Obama thinks he can create jobs?
Are you people out of your mind where in the hell did you learn this nonsense? Since when did government get this ability to create jobs?
Never EVER dreamed that a Government could do this how is it that you Obamamites come to these conclusions of phony wealth creation from government
Government''s make laws not jobs Only an uninformed person would think to look to government as a means of survival.
Our monetary system is corrupted beyond what you think 56 trillin $ growing It is owed to China & the world and it cant be paid back with a PRINTER or in other words Fake money out of nothing with no intrinsic value of any king it''s just worthless paper printed on a printer by the Federal Reserve an illegal institution under the constitution. If Obama thinks he can create jobs with such ease why not create 10 million jobs instead of 3 million better yet he should create 350 million jobs instead. Only a fool would follow this stupid logic and Obama cant do anything cause the monetary system is forged currency
- Reply to this comment
- The new administration''s plan to invest in infrastructure jobs is the best and fastest way to right this listing ship.
Contracts will go out to ligitimate companies to repair our roads and bridges, build schools, update the electrical grids, etc. American workers will earn respectable wages for their labor... money they will spend to improve their lives, pay their bills. Companies will sell products to these workers and their families which will create more jobs and the cycle will continue. More workers, more taxes, more stable economy.
It will take many years to repay the cost of the damage that has been done, and we must always remember what an incompetent and dishonest executive branch of government can destroy.
I, for one, feel very confident that with Obama at the helm we will navigate these treacherous waters and America will be great again.
God bless America. - Reply to this comment
- To the poster that said it''s a little to late to place blame, I disagree. The incoming government must go after Bush/Cheney with a vengeance. They must bring them up on charges, to show the world you will not create this kind of disaster and get away with it. They should be locked away forever for what they''ve done to humans. There is no difference between them and the most corrupt officials in the world. They equal or best Hussein.
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- I remember the frothing and drooling Republicans chanting for Satan Bush: "Four more Years, Four more Years." You got what you wished for out of that bas.****.
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- With bleaker job reports every week, we need solid job creation results, not more helpful job search advice like "The annual two-day national job search call-in". In this type of economy, when I lose my job at Ford, do people think that I can get a job at GM or Chrysler just by brushing up my resume or sharpening up my interview skills?
Be realistic! Nobody is hiring right now! Talking about job interview skills is meaningless until this economy starts to create jobs. - Reply to this comment
- All this back and forth isn''t going to solve anything. Your frustation is because most of you feel that you didn''t do anything to deserve this, and you didn''t. Democracy doesn''t work unless the vast majority of those in power who also incidently control the purse strings are willing to share the good times as well as the bad times. When you lose your moral compass people suffer. This is nothing more than a recovery for the people that are taking huge advantage of the rest of us. The real suffering hasn''t started yet. Like it or not, trickle down economics has never been fair to the vast majority. In good times you reap the least rewards. In bad times, it just gets worse. There is a caste system in this country. Until people rebel against it, We are going to experience the status quo over and over again.
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- Thanks to George "the war criminal" Bush and the repigletard party.
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- It does not matter whos fault it is at this point, the blame game is to little to late, we have a good percentage of our country out of work with no jobs available, and even more heading the same way. Telling people to pull themselves up by their bootstraps and make a way is also to little to late. There are no jobs out there, and until we get some this will only get worse. Foreclosures will get worse, sales will get worse, JOBS are the only thing that can stop this and companies are NOT hiring.
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