WASHINGTON, Dec. 23, 2008
Two More Dire Signs For U.S. Economy
GDP Falls Half A Percent; New Home Sales Fall To A Nearly 20-Year Low
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A sale sign stands outside an existing home lingering on the market in Westminster, Colo., Dec. 2, 2008. Sales of new and existing homes fell sharply in November. The median sales price for existing homes saw its bigest year-over-year drop since 1968. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
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Play CBS Video Video Making Ends Meet As the U.S. falls deeper into recession, a record number of Americans are being forced to apply for government assistance. Byron Pitts reports.
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Video States' Unemployment Funds Low As a recession in the U.S. continues to hinder all facets of the economy, many states now say that their unemployment budgets have reached drastically low levels. Kelly Wallace reports from New York.
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Video The Mortgage Meltdown Scott Pelley reports on the mortgage crisis that's far from over, with a second wave of expected defaults on the way that could deepen the bottom of the U.S. recession.
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Special Report Faces Of The Recession CNET News profiles people in various technology sectors to see how real people are handling the recession.
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The Early Show Economy In Crisis Confused about what's happening with the economy? You're not alone. Send us your questions for our experts to answer.
While government figures released Tuesday for the third quarter showed only a 0.5 percent drop in the gross domestic product, a key indicator of economic health, two reports on home sales sketched a bleaker picture. Demand for both new and existing homes fell more sharply in November than expected.
In addition, GDP is likely falling at a sharper pace in the current quarter because of widening fallout from the worst financial crisis to hit the country since the Great Depression. If GDP does plunge 6 percent in the fourth quarter, it would be the sharpest such decline since a 6.4 percent drop in the first quarter of 1982.
"It will get a lot worse before it gets better," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, a Lexington, Massachusetts, forecasting firm. "We are in the midst of the worst recession in the postwar period, even factoring in a massive stimulus program."
Economists said they saw no likelihood of a quick turnaround in housing or the overall economy, given that the credit markets remain locked despite a $700 billion financial rescue package and billions of dollars of loans supplied by the Federal Reserve. Mortgage financing has dried up for many potential buyers, further damaging a housing industry struggling with a tide of foreclosures.
Wall Street pulled back in quiet trading ahead of the holiday after the reports were released Tuesday morning. The Dow Jones industrial average finished lower for the fifth straight day, falling 100 points to close near 8,419.
Signs of the growing recession are showing up on main street too. Holiday thefts are up sharply, reports CBS News correspondent Randall Pinkston. And Americans' reliance on food stamps has jumped around the country as well, reports CBS News correspondent Byron Pitts.
The Bush administration warned that the country should be prepared for worse news to come.
"The fourth quarter, because of the credit crisis, the standstill in credit as markets froze up and the financial market turmoil, will be significantly weaker," presidential spokesman Tony Fratto told reporters at the White House on Tuesday.
President-elect Barack Obama's administration is assembling a stimulus package that could reach $850 billion for spending on infrastructure such as roads and bridges, aid to states, modernizing schools and energy project.
Vice President-elect Joe Biden told a meeting of Obama's economic team that as the economy worsens, the need for a bold plan "grows every day."
Still, private economists said that even if the Obama administration achieves its goal of enacting a stimulus program in January, it won't arrive soon enough to keep the economy from enduring a severe downturn well into next year.
Behravesh said he thinks the recession will bottom out this quarter with the biggest quarterly drop yet in GDP. But he forecast another sizable decline of around 4 percent in the first three months of 2009, and then a slightly smaller drop in the second quarter before the economy begins to rebound next summer.
Other economists are even more pessimistic. Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc., said he did not see the GDP turning positive until 2010. "There were just so many excesses that the correction process is going to take a long time," he said.
The current recession began in December 2007. That means it's already the longest downturn since the 16-month recession of 1981-82. That downturn and another 16-month slump in 1973-75 are tied as the longest recessions since World War II.
Some analysts said the downturn could be the most severe since the Great Depression, if measured by both duration and lost output.
Commerce reported Tuesday that GDP fell at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the third quarter, which was unchanged from the estimate the government made a month ago. But their report showed that corporate profits fell 1.2 percent during the quarter, the fifth straight quarterly drop and even worse than the 0.9 percent decline estimated a month ago.
Separately, the Commerce Department said new home sales dropped 2.9 percent in November to an annual sales rate of 407,000 units, the slowest pace in nearly 18 years. And the National Association of Realtors said sales of previously owned homes fell by 8.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.49 million units.
The median sales price of an existing home plunged 13.2 percent in November to $181,300. That was the biggest year-over-year drop since 1968. The median, or midpoint, price for a new home sold in November also fell sharply, dropping 12.7 percent to $220,400.
The 0.5 percent drop in GDP in the third quarter followed a 2.8 percent increase in the spring, a period that was boosted by the distribution of millions of economic stimulus payments. GDP was up 0.9 percent in the first quarter after having dropped by 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007.
The National Bureau of Economic Research has determined that the country slipped into a recession in December 2007.
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While a common rule of thumb for a recession is two consecutive quarters of falling GDP, the NBER uses other data to determine when recessions begin and end, including employment statistics. The economy has lost jobs every month since January. It's shed 1.9 million payroll jobs this year, including more than a half-million jobs lost just in November. The unemployment rate now stands at a 15-year high of 6.7 percent.There were just so many excesses that the correction process is going to take a long time.
Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist, MFR Inc.For the government's last look at July-September GDP, there were only minor revisions. Spending by consumers plunged at an annual rate of 3.8 percent, slightly more than the 3.7 percent fall reported a month ago. It was the biggest decline in consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of economic activity, in nearly three decades. An 8.6 percent drop was recorded in the second quarter of 1980.
Residential construction, where the current economic troubles began, fell at an annual rate of 16 percent in the third quarter, while nonresidential construction, which had been buffering the construction industry, faltered as well, dropping by 1.7 percent.
The Treasury Department, meantime, said it has provided an additional $4.7 billion to 92 banks as part of the government's $700 billion rescue of the financial system.
The department released a list of 49 banks that got final approval last Friday to receive $2.8 billion. It said an additional 43 banks received final approval Tuesday, but those names will not be released until Monday.
Treasury also confirmed that it had given preliminary approval to American Express Co. and CIT Group to receive support from the $700 billion bailout fund.
In related moves, shareholders approved two acquisitions that were forced by banks' massive credit losses.
PNC Financial Services Group Inc. and National City Corp. shareholders approved PNC's acquisition of the Cleveland-based bank. The deal is expected to be complete by late 2009.
And Wells Fargo & Co. and Wachovia Corp. shareholders approved Wells Fargo's $11.8 billion purchase of Wachovia.
© MMVIII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Best-selling author Mitch Albom on his first nonfiction work since "Tuesdays with Morrie."
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Actually, in an unencumbered capitalist society where the tax structure is not restrictive and the government does not try and manipulate demand, jobs are created due to demand and people compete for them. Giving people jobs creates a welfare society with a growing government that eventually collapses.
Exactly what is the exit strategy for all this government stimulus and debt? If your answer is "we''ll deal with that later, right now we need to put people to work" then you have defined and deferred today''s problem.
Posted by ghostfighter at 09:59 AM : Dec 24, 2008
Applications don''t mean JACK! The faucet you speak of is rusted shut.
Lets see if the spin gets positive after Jesus Obama descends from the clouds in January.
It is no wonder the newspapers and network tv are losing readers and viewers. Mark Twain wrote much better fiction.
The Messiah''''s transition team has requested 7 fish and 3 loaves of bread to feed the multitude that will be in attendance at the inauguration. Water will be turned into a vintage wine for those of drinking age.
Posted by assemblyofso at 09:05 AM : Dec 24, 2008
I don''t know of anyone who thinks of our new President in this way... YES a lot of us have great hope for him. YES a lot of us believe he can and will get us out of this massive hole we allowed you fascist to lead us into but we still think of him as a Man, young, intelligent and SO VERY much better than what we have!!
Posted by easeup at 09:04 AM : Dec 24, 200
BECAUSE IT''S HIS country you poor simple minded loser! You bootlickers think that just because we bought into the Reich Wing Lies and it blew up in our face, we can''t state the obvious!! Disgusting lot... these fascist!!
Posted by assemblyofso at 09:05 AM : Dec 24, 2008
I couldn''''t agree more--CBS seems like they''''re trying extra hard today to spread doom & gloom.
On Christmas Eve no less....
Posted by easeup at 09:08 AM : Dec 24, 2008
Ummmm So IF it''s not reported the people will not know it? ROFLMAO Man you fascist are getting so desperate it''s almost funny! You don''t need the News Media to tell you this!! Now crawl back under you rocks and we''ll let you know when we dug out of the Fascist Economy, YET AGAIN!!
Lets see if the spin gets positive after Jesus Obama descends from the clouds in January.
It is no wonder the newspapers and network tv are losing readers and viewers. Mark Twain wrote much better fiction.
The Messiah''s transition team has requested 7 fish and 3 loaves of bread to feed the multitude that will be in attendance at the inauguration. Water will be turned into a vintage wine for those of drinking age.
And we wouldnt have been any farther behind in the middle east.
"The fourth quarter, because of the credit crisis, the standstill in credit as markets froze up and the financial market turmoil, will be significantly weaker," presidential spokesman Tony Fratto told reporters at the White House on Tuesday. "
Yet another Bush victory.
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Posted by MIpapaof4 at 07:37 AM : Dec 24, 2008
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I firmly disagree with you, I am genx and do not have anything handed to me, I grew up on pancakes and have been working for a living since I was sixteen years old. I work for everything my family and I have. My only wish is that my family has it better than I did but it doesn''t look like that will happen.
Posted by scienceman1 at 03:43 AM : Dec 24, 2008
Ahh! Did you just miss an ELECTION sparky? You know the one where we threw Republican''s, the party that gave us this mess, out in record numbers? Did you miss the part where we elected a NEW leader who wants to take us away from the Failures of "Trickle Down" and MASSIVE debt? Sorry you missed it! Stay tuned though, more to come.
Posted by MIpapaof4 at 07:37 AM : Dec 24, 2008
So you are saying this is ALL the fault of OTHER American''s? We''re not going to blame the Republican Party who, for decades, made it their mission to remove EVERY single regulation put in place to PROTECT the American People? We have NO blame for an ADMINISTRATION who took us away from an Economic Policy that was working extremely well to again try "Trickle Down"? You sound like a Republican Apologist, who will do or say ANYTHING to protect the "Party".
[16]There are six things that the LORD hates, seven that are an abomination to him: [17]haughty eyes (the DECIDER), a lying tongue (935 LIES), and hands that shed innocent blood (4200 DEAD AMERICANS).
George W Bush - An abomination to the LORD!
Posted by jerr11 at 12:32 AM : Dec 24, 2008
Back up slick-you missed the one about God hating sin not the sinner.
of all the sins God hates it''s not murder, homosexuality, lust, lying, or stealing-it''s pride.
Pride keeps us from realizing that all of us have a sin nature. So, hating the sinner rather than the sin is a bum rap. Hate the sin for what it does to the person caught up in it. That includes me and you. For all have sinned..... Ya get the idea.
I need some coffee.
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