Let Home Prices Fall
Declan McCullagh Says Further Government Intervention Will Do More Harm Than Good
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Real Estate
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By now it should be clear that our economic woes have been caused in large part by an unsustainable increase in housing prices, which are now falling back to earth.
Some of the blame must go to politicians like Democratic Rep. Barney Frank, whose prognosticating abilities were evident five years ago when he fought reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by claiming they do not pose "a problem with a threat to the Treasury." Whoops.
Now these same Washington soothsayers are predicting that today's economic troubles can be ameliorated by propping up real estate prices. Reps. Frank and Nancy Pelosi said last week that it's "essential" to partially guarantee 1.5 million mortgages, and President-elect Barack Obama also wants "direct, immediate assistance for homeowners." (See related CBS News video.)
Meanwhile, the Bush administration is horrified that Americans are saving money and banks are returning to the tighter lending rules they used a few years ago. It announced this week two different programs totaling $800 billion that could, in part, goose house prices by lowering mortgage rates.
On Capitol Hill, house builders have been swarming like houseflies. Toll Brothers wants Congress to "stimulate demand by reducing mortgage rates and fees" and creating more tax incentives to buy homes. The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that builders are "ramping up" lobbying efforts.
In reality, more government intervention will do more harm than good. The sooner prices are allowed to naturally fall to normal, post-bubble levels, and the sooner that houses become affordable, the sooner the economy can heal itself and start growing instead of contracting.
By way of analogy, imagine a reprise of the Dutch tulip mania of 1637. Say the price of tulip bulbs has grown handsomely in the last few years, and impressive fortunes were made by early speculators.
Bidding wars erupt, with the winners hoping to resell them the bulbs at a handsome profit months or years later. Cable TV hosts proclaim that a golden age of prosperity has dawned. Prized bulbs change hands for $1 million each, and skeptics are reviled as doomsayers.
Eventually this boom leads to a bust, as new buyers become scarce, and the price of tulip bulbs suffers a dizzying fall down to $10 each. Speculators complain to Congress. Politicians pledge to use tax dollars to purchase bulbs for $1,000 or $10,000, invoking phrases like "stability" and "liquidity crisis," or offering taxpayer-backed loan guarantees to speculators.
This would sound silly for tulips, but it's close to what's happening for houses. All this will do is slow -- and not arrest -- the process of prices falling. Not even the president of the United States can veto the laws of supply and demand.
It's difficult to convince someone to buy a tulip bulb (or house) today if he thinks the price will be a lot lower in a year. Worse, government spending diverts funds away from productive purposes, including investment, education, and infrastructure.
By usual metrics, such as the ratio of prices to incomes, the ratio of rents to mortgages, and the ratio of current prices to expected ones, some areas of the country still look pretty bubbly.
In the decade ending August 2008, according to S&P Case-Shiller data, house prices in New York metropolitan area leaped by 2.2 times, though incomes grew only modestly. The Washington, D.C. area experienced a 2.1-fold jump -- while non-bubbly areas like Cleveland saw an increase of a mere 1.17 times, which is consistent with incomes and inflation.
The median family income in Allentown, Penn. is $46,400, and the median home price is $125,000, meaning houses tend to cost 2.7x the median income. Compare that to San Francisco, where homes consume a whopping 11.6x the median annual salary.
Robert Shiller, who teaches economics at Yale University, has calculated that housing prices have remained remarkably constant from 1890 through 1998, rising only 13 percent when adjusted for inflation -- through world wars, the automobile, and the rise of the two-income family. When the dot-com bubble burst, money flowed into real estate, encouraged by the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates more than prudence allowed.
Which brings us back to a taxpayer-funded "rescue" of homeowners. It's true that many people who bought homes in the last decade acted responsibly, made sizable down payments, and purchased a house within their means; they owe more than they paid through no fault of their own.
On the other hand, many people were speculators, fibbing about their income, lying about their assets, and treating their house as an ATM to finance cruises and flat screen TVs. Many banks were in on the game, knowingly placing people in homes they couldn't afford. Even if a bailout is justified, Washington is in no position to determine who's deserving and not. Any bailout punishes renters and Americans who were fiscally responsible by taxing them to benefit those who weren't.
Prices in some areas need to fall, and the market needs to return to normal. Eventually it will. All Washington can do is prolong the pain.
Declan McCullagh is the chief political correspondent for CNET. He previously was Wired's Washington bureau chief and a reporter for Time.com and Time magazine in Washington, D.C. He has taught journalism, public policy, and First Amendment law. He is an occasional programmer, avid analog and digital photographer, and lives in the San Francisco Bay area. His e-mail address is declan.mccullagh@cnet.com
By Declan McCullagh
© MMVIII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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See all 83 CommentsPosted by easeup at 11:38 AM : Nov 26, 2008
Lemmie guess-you were a jock in school?
Big fun picking on the nerd huh?
By the way, how''s that Union job working out for you?
Deflation would be catastrophic to the economy if it were significant. Homes would be sold at a loss, the single most significant investment the averge family has, it''s home, would essentially be wiped out in value/equity growth. Further, companies unable to sell products at a cost necessary to cover labor and operating expenses would rapidly go out of business. Negative wage pressure would leave families unable to pay for things which DIDN''T fall in price due to the fact that they were (for example) manufactured offsore.
Only capital I - Idiots say things like, let the market rule in times of economic crisis. Letting the market rule got us TO this crisis - and the proper and JUST role of government is to help molify the effects of crisis, as well as to help to try to prevent them through justifiable oversight.
Posted by easeup at 11:38 AM : Nov 26, 2008
Lemmie guess-you were a jock in school?
Big fun picking on the nerd huh?
By the way, how''''s that Union job working out for you?
Posted by wl7bzh at 12:15 PM
LOL!!! .... funny stuff.
Big fun picking on the nerd huh?
By the way, how''''s that Union job working out for you?
Posted by wl7bzh at 12:15 PM : Nov 26, 2008
Awwwww......hit a sore spot? Don''t worry, no one will take your lunch money anymore.
BTW-How''s the Star Wars action figure collection?
BTW-How''''s the Star Wars action figure collection?
Posted by easeup
HAHAHAHA Stop it your KILLING ME...LOL!!!
That is what I say.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted by rxzyu at 12:13 PM : Nov 26, 2008
Idiot. Barney Frank and his buddies in HUD and elsewhere failed to see this coming and insisted that this kind of lending continue to help the "poor" get into homes.
Explain how this was Republican? Nice Democratic/lib led bailout. Really working well. 700billion my a55. Try about 7 trillion now.
Explain how this was Republican? Nice Democratic/lib led bailout. Really working well. 700billion my a55. Try about 7 trillion now.
Posted by stick1772
Stick, I think you''re missing the overall point here. It was not a political screwup that led to this mess. Let''s call the "kettle black!" BOTH parties allowed de-regulation to take place over the past decade. Then HUMAN GREED took over. Greed of the massive banking/mortgage corporations who bought up credit-debts. Investors, hedge funds, and the rest of Wall St. continued the greed because so much money was being made off of homes. Real estate agents, land speculators, etc also were greedy and wanted higher valued homes so they influenced appraisers. Developers were also to blame for obvious reasons. And, finally, the homeowners that bought too much house for nothing down were also greedy and didn''t buy what they honestly could afford. There. Not political in any way....just the cold hard facts of reality and now we ALL get to try to fix the problem. Quit worrying about political blame. That won''t fix the current problem.
Declan McCullagh is absolutely correct: the stratospheric prices that homes fetched at the peak of the bubble were totally absurd - they were not even close to being realistic values, and any attempting to keep those values artificially inflated are doomed to failure.
A house that sold for $25K only 25 years ago would now be appraised at $175K or more -- but that does not actually make it WORTH that much; it was only rampant "speculation" and "flipping" plus the false assumption that home prices would ALWAYS go up, and NEVER go down, that pushed prices to such totally ridiculous levels to begin with.
As the enormous "Baby Boomer Bubble" begins to retire and liquidate their real estate assets over the next couple decades, the housing market is going to be totally saturated with homes for sale - and the size of that "sellers" group dwarfs the size of the group that will be buying, thus creating a constant surplus, and ever-falling prices. It''s simply inevitable.
If you bought-in at the high "bubble" prices then too bad for you; you''re going to take a huge loss. It''s unfortunate, but there is really nothing that can - or should - be done about it, at this point. It''s just a natural supply-and-demand "market adjustment" that''s going to play out one way or another, like it or not.
Until prices are brought into line with wages we will have no economic recovery.
This means that a falsely valued $750,000.00 home will have to be brought down to its real value, $75,000.00.
And all the governments of the world pouring all the cash taxpayers of the world have left into an effort to sustain false prices will fail.
That''s why socialism, communism, and fascism have always failed.
Because their economic, as well as humanitarian, models do.
And there is no better recipe for disaster than corporate capitalism on the way up, accompanied by corporate socialism on the way down."
SearingTruth, September 2008
A Future of the Brave
Explain how this was Republican? Nice Democratic/lib led bailout. Really working well. 700billion my a55. Try about 7 trillion now.
Posted by stick177 You continually try to lay this on the democrats , the data shows the CRA had very little to do with this . The data analysed by the Federal reserve also shows that while Fannie and Freddi are part of the problem at this point they were not the root cause. You also ignore the huge part the packaging of these sub prime mortgages into SIV''s played in the collapse . There is also the Gramm ,Leach ,Bliely act of 1999 which blurred Depression area firewalls between various banking and investment firms . The commodities futures modernization act also played its part (both done by Phil Gramm ). The shadow market in CDO''s which is basically credit default insurance is 65 trillion $ estimated(4 times the worth of the actual market) and largely unregulated. You are stuck on ideology and refuse to recognize the whole emphasis on deregulation which pushed by Republicans and supported at times by various democrats is behind a lot of the current financial crisis.
There will be hyperinflation on par with that experienced by the Weimar Republic. Gas and food prices will jump up sharply to new highs and keep rising. Meanwhile, Consumer spending on anything outside food and energy will completely collapse, and most retailers will be forced into bankruptcy. Unemployment will soar, and there will be social unrest.
Posted by Hackerpc at 01:20 PM : Nov 26, 2008 actually in the short term with the falling like a rock, prices in oil and copper etc. the commodities market , I myself think stagflation is more of a concern . If things get as bad as are expected and we are on the top side of this rather than the bottom , there will be social unrest.If people are pushed to the edge of survival by economic conditions , people in survival mode tend to act different than fat sassy consumers.
can no longer borrow. So you relax lending
requirements and bundle the loans into newly created
financial instruments to disperse the added risk.
Again a point is reached where no futher leading is
possible. So you effectively eliminate leading
standards and create exotic instruments to hide the
risk and pass them off as ''good as gold''. People
are borrowing again and all is right with the world.
Soon those newly created borrowers are maxed-out
and defaulting, infecting and damaging the entire
credit system.
Houses on the market today are actually only "worth" from 20% to 50% of their current "list" price.
If you''re thinking about buying, you''d be a fool to consider offering more than $0.10 to $0.50 on the dollar on that list price. If you''re actually paying the asking price you''re going to become just another casualty of this inevitable market correction.
How can we pay back loans when we have no income? How can we pay taxes if we have no income? Besides, with gas at 4 bucks a gallon, who wants an SUV anymore? It''s a hostile takeover attempt. That''s ok, all we want right now, is to take the guns away, and we''ll be bringing in those drugs too, ok?
ARe we done with this yet?
The housing market became the next tech stock market only much more dangerous.
Just like the overpriced tech stocks overpriced housing must come down.
Houses on the market today are actually only "worth" from 20% to 60% of their current "list" price.
If you''re thinking about buying, you''d be foolish to consider offering more than $0.10 to $0.60 on the dollar on the list price. If you''re actually paying the asking price you''re going to become just another casualty of this inevitable market correction.
BTW-How''''s the Star Wars action figure collection?
Posted by easeup at 12:26 PM : Nov 26, 2008
Sore spot? Not really-By the way does the little woman still have her Supermodel job? You know the one where she is serving as the design guide for the Pillsbury Doughboy with the massive yeast infection?
Posted by Remarkor at 01:33 PM : Nov 26, 2008
Because it actually happened. The author is making a point in contrasting real worth versus perceived worth. In both the tulip and housing markets the latter exceeded the former. The resulting crashes are inevitable and not necessarily undesirable, as the author clearly points out.
There must be some mathematical genius
that can pull another equation out of
his aazzz and make everything look good
again.
I mean, that is what they did to prove
homeless could afford a great home.
Thanks barney.
"I love you,
you love me,
let''s all live
with Freddie MacKeee . . .
Posted by Lady_Organs at 02:27 PM : Nov 26, 2008
And my dear lady, why would a woman of your obvious character be "trolling" this red light district?
Even Bryers ice cream is making smaller packages again.
1.5 qts instead of 1 3/4.
We need prices of consumer goods to fall and cut the salaries of the over paid exec''s and ceo''s.
I don''t care if my home is losing value right now. The value will eventually go up again and I''ll still be living here.
Someday, when our kids and grandkids have to sell this place, it will be their problem; however, since anything they get will be profit to them, who cares.
Yes, the predatory lending practices that allowed banks and mortgage brokers to make a ton of money is part of the picture. But the world-wide financial melt-down is due to DERIVATIVES.
Posted by Lady_Organs at 02:27 PM : Nov 26, 2008
You must be new, I guess.:)
Posted by avoice at 02:47 PM
You thinking make sense so please
shut up while the masses wait to
be saved.
The reality is that "Americans"
now vote in "leaders" as opposed
to public servants.
The country is just about as dumb
as these "leaders" would like it
to be.
Anyone care for a donut?
"Don''t tazer me!"
Posted by wl7bzh at 02:19 PM : Nov 26, 2008
That was lame, nerd-boy. Go upstairs & tell your mom that I told her to slap you.
Posted by easeup at 03:19 PM : Nov 26, 2008
Whatsa matter yard ape-Not accustomed to someone talking back to you? Why don''t you get the little woman to get you and the boys anuther beer cauz thar''s probably a game on somwhar. eeeehaw
I bet life don''t better than that do it bubba?
This has forever been the battle cry of the greedy, religious? right. It is the same old, ''I''m not my brother''s keeper'' song. "I want everyone to have the best health care possible... as long as it doesn''t cost me anything." "Those people are homeless and starving because they choose to live that way." "Why should my tax dollars be used to pay for food stamps?"
It is high time that republicans come out of the closet and admit that they are NOT christians. To state, now, that the government should stay out of the mix and let the masses lose their homes and then, possibly, go hungry because of mistakes the government has made is simply evil. The majority of people who are losing their homes now DID NOT cheat to buy more home than they deserve (as republicans claim). They bought homes based on their optomistic expectdations of the future. It''s called the American dream! Their dreams have been dashed, not by their unwillingness to work to obtain it, but by those at the top who are greedy. Jobs have been moved to slave-labor nations by greedy corporations. In millions of households incomes have dropped or eliminated!
I sincerely wish that every one of you republicans (who place so little value on the dreams of others) lose your homes and your incomes, and your savings and your investments. You should get a taste of your own medicine.
I bet life don''''t better than that do it bubba?
Posted by wl7bzh at 03:28 PM : Nov 26, 2008
You know what? I WILL enjoy drinking beer & watching football! You go ahead & enjoy biting your pillow & watching Dancing With the Stars.
I''ll bet those mean jocks really did a number on you!! LOL!!!
Well if this guy will let me buy a 4100,000 house I can''t pay for, I might as well go for a $500,000 house I can''t afford either.
So they are the ones who drove the house price up to where legitimate buyers couldn''t afford them; so let them fall, let them file for bankruptcy, along with the crooked banks that loaned them the money they knew would never get paid back.
After all of the bailouts of these deadbeats; who is going to be left to bail out the taxpayers.
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