NEW YORK, Nov. 20, 2008
Report: U.S. Power Will Fade By 2025
National Intelligence Council Predicts Scarce Resources, Loose Nukes, A Rising China
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Nuclear weapons will be a growing threat in the coming decades, and new threats like cyber-terrorism will become more important than conventional military might, according to a new report from the National Intelligence Council. (iStockphoto)
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Interactive 21st Century Spying The biggest overhaul of the U.S. intelligence community in half a century.
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Interactive Global Warming The greenhouse effect, a look at the Kyoto Protocol and a history of the Earth's climate.
The grim assessment, entitled "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World", comes from the National Intelligence Council, an independent government body. The report concludes that by 2025, "The U.S. will remain the single most important actor but will be less dominant."
There'll be challenges on all fronts. Climate changes from global warming will lead to shortages of food and water in dozens of countries. That, coupled with a projected population spike of 1.2 billion people worldwide could lead to wars over increasingly scarce resources.
Thomas Fingar, Chairman of the National Intelligence Council predicts water shortages, disruptions to delicate agricultural patterns, continued unrest in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan and the continued emergence of China as America's greatest economic rival.
"China will have the world's second largest economy," the report says, "and will be a leading military power."
But conventional military strength will be less important. The new threats will come from hackers and cyber-terrorists, criminal gangs and other rogue groups.
Terrorism will remain. But the report suggests that al Qaeda's influence in the Arab world is in decline and the group may "decay sooner than many people think."
"The killing of innocents, the killing of Muslims [by al Qaeda] is turning off more people than it is turning on," Fingar says.
Still, other extremist groups may be ready to step in, and analysts warn that an increased availability of nuclear weapons and materials could present an even more lethal threat.
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The report also suggests that global warming could boost Russia's growing economy by extending growing seasons and allowing easier access to far north oil fields. And it says that the U.S. dollar will continue to weaken and fall from favor as a top world currency.China will have the world's second largest economy and will be a leading military power.
National Intelligence Council reportOf course, these projections are hardly certain. Analysts note that most past attempts to look ahead have been turned out to be wrong. But the report is aimed at starting the policy dialogue as a new Administration maps its strategy.
© MMVIII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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- They''re pretty optimistic. I bet in 20 years there will be vast areas of the world without communication or civilized society, and we''ll be hanging on by a fingernail in a fascist waste dump.
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- Report: U.S. Power Will Fade By 2025
Maybe! If the U.S. stays divided with a heavy racial undercurrent like it has now, but the U.S. does have an "Ace" in the hole, the U.S. can always live up to it''s potential, the U.S. can always wake up and be the U.S. "for real", the way it was created and designed to be in the Constitution and if the U.S. does that, the U.S. will actually become even more powerful, real freedom is contagious, no one really likes to live, work and play on a chain! Let Freedom Ring! - Reply to this comment
- There will be peace after all if the US down like the old Rome.
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- I think some of the people posting here need to actually read the excerpts from the report. This report did not predict the disintegration of American power, it simply stated that the TOTAL US dominance of economic and military affairs is not the reality of the future. Nowhere does it state that the US will cease to be the preeminent global power. Do people really believe that Chinese cyber-warfare programs are above and beyond those of the United States? We have the most powerful information apparatus on earth. If US-Chinese relations degrade to the point of open hostility, they have much more to lose than we do. Without the United State''s insatiable hunger for consumer goods, China''s economic rise would have been impossible. When Chinese companies are coming to the US for cheap labor, that will be the time to start panicking. Until then, try to remember that the Chinese are still trying to figure out how they are going to clothe, feed, and shelter their own populace of 1.3bn people. As long as we slowly move towards next-generation energy, I don''t think we have anything to panic about. Let the Chinese run all over the globe to secure the resources of the 20th century, while we create those of the 21st. Maybe I''m just an optimist, but I''d suggest everyone take a deep breadth. We have a nuclear arsenal capable of destroying the planet (and an enormous conventional force), I don''t think the Chinese are going to be storming the coast of California anytime soon.
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- Our power and influence in decline? - Of course it is! And it''s not so much terrorists, or a surging world population, or the inevitable threat of China''s growing economy and military power - the unfortunate reality is that we as a people are complacent, unproductive and lazy. We are much more concerned with our ipods and big flat screen TVs to focus on any of the real problems that need to be solved to reverse our ongoing decline.
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- I think I made roughly that same rant in 1995, except my target year was 2012.
The fact is the only reason the U.S. is still "the single most important actor" is global inertia. The world is just USED to perceiving the U.S. as "the single most important actor".
Can you think of an equivalent situation in "real life", say in your dealings with investment advisors, or banks, or potential business partners (or even your in-laws) where you would perceive the one who had bumbled his way into a debt-load of historical proportions as the one most fit to influence - let alone manage - your investments? - Reply to this comment
- "[...] by 2025, "The U.S. will remain the single most important actor but will be less dominant."
No way will we last that long if we continue to reward people for planning that looks no further out on the event horizon than their tenure as CEO or this year''s income tax bill...
Posted by ibsteve2u at 01:33 PM : Nov 21, 2008
ibsteve2u..................a recession in the U.S. is a like a successful period in most other countries. Why are we always overreacting? Chill. The economy will get worst before it gets better but this will not be the end of the U.S. Goodness.
Posted by comeon11 at 01:37 PM : Nov 21, 2008
A perfect example; the quote I used referenced our leadership position in the world in 2025 - so comeon11 immediately focused on THIS recession.
That is what our politicians and business leaders do: Focus on what affects them RIGHT NOW.
THAT is why they didn''t think twice about the implications of offshoring the production side of our economy; it made lots of campaign donors more money RIGHT NOW.
That is why they let "trickle down" economics happen; it made lots of campaign donors more money RIGHT NOW, and so they ignored the likely consequences of 90% of the consumers in a production/consumption economy not having anything to spend, and the probability that the 10% who would get all of the money would sit on it or invest it in countries providing higher returns.
Shortsighted, greedy leadership will ensure that we will NOT be "the single most important actor" in 2025. - Reply to this comment
- Read the new book called "Limits of Power: the end of American Exceptionalism" by A.J. Bacevich, and learn about how (and when) this decline began. While GW BUSH was more the result of the decline, not the cause of it, he certainly can take much credit for accelerating it.
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- Oh, I forgot to add -
A RESILIENT PEOPLE knows and understands their civic responsibility. They have an understanding what our Constitution is all about and THEY VOTE! - Reply to this comment
- Interesting article and discussion. I have been reading many of the comments for the past hour. My thoughts -
What we should be focusing on is RESILIENCE
A RESILIENT PEOPLE-
* would be a frugal and energy conservation minded not because it''s the latest green fad but because it''s wise and efficient and part of their lifestyle
* would be strong and courageous in the face of crises even if (as some of you say) Al-Quida and terrorists will come knocking at our door or a hurricane or natural disaster hits. For the latter, they will respond intelligently first (take a Red Cross first aid course for example) rather than just go whining and expecting the government to bail them out.
* even though these resilient people respect and honor a military, and it''s occasional use, they will not cower behind it or expect it to solve all the problems in the world.
* will stay in shape so as not to jack up health care costs.
* answer the call for SERVICE rather than just SHOPPING.
LET''S BE A RESILIENT PEOPLE AND NOT A WHINING SHEEPLE! - Reply to this comment
- Report: U.S. Power Will Fade By 2025
NEVER, NEVER, NEVER, NEVER, NEVER, NEVER,
WHO COME UP WITH THIS STUPID REPORT.
Posted by Demdump at 07:21 PM : Nov 21, 2008
Man are you out of touch. I''ll bet you have never traveled to another country. America is now a backward country that will be a third world country in less than 30 years. Our education system is at the bottom, our economy sucks, and we are racist. Because of the American Christians we don''t respect our own constitution which protects freedom of religion: we impose our beliefs on eveyone elses culture.
Yes... we will lose power. - Reply to this comment
- Where is President-Elect Obama? "Present"
Will he show up after the crisis?
A new Obama slogan?
We cannot CHANGE? - Reply to this comment
- Where is President-Elect Obama? "Present"
Will he show up after the crisis? - Reply to this comment
- read the last paragraph of the story.
"Of course, these projections are hardly certain. Analysts note that most past attempts to look ahead have been turned out to be wrong. But the report is aimed at starting the policy dialogue as a new Administration maps its strategy."
This is CBS trying to create a story. It is called Yellow Journalism.
Comes from having HS coops in the news room. - Reply to this comment
- Posted by Demdump at 07:21 PM : Nov 21, 2008
A group significantly smarter than you for sure. - Reply to this comment
- Is this bad news? I do not think so. Just think about this: (1) Do we really have to be the world''s policeman. This world also has nations such as England, France, Germany, Japan, the list goes on and on. Why not let them take the lead in some world crisis. We can be in a follower''s role now and then, (2) We have the best government system in the world for us. It does not follow that our system is best for everyone. There are actually folks that prefer another system - so be it. (3) Why defend other countries when we do not have to. Bush badly wanted to build the European Missile Defense System before leaving office. This system is designed to protect the EU from possible missile attacks from Iran. If the EU needs such a system, let them build it. There are numerous other examples.
I say, let''s be followers for a change. - Reply to this comment
- Report: U.S. Power Will Fade By 2025
NEVER, NEVER, NEVER, NEVER, NEVER, NEVER,
WHO COME UP WITH THIS STUPID REPORT. - Reply to this comment
- May 15, 1948: The start of the Beginning of the American Empire.
Sept 11, 2001: The start of the End of the American Empire.
Good-Bye State of Israel and thank you for the all your self-suicidal behavior of the last 60 years! Do not count on China, India, Russia and Brazil to save you Israel. - Reply to this comment
- May 15, 1948: The start of the Beginning of the American Empire.
Sept 11, 2001: The start of the End of the American Empire.
Good-Bye State of Israel and thank you for the all your self-suicidal behavior of the last 60 years! Do not count on China and India to save you Israel. - Reply to this comment
- May 15, 1948: The start of the Beginning of the American Empire.
Sept 11, 2001: The start of the End of the American Empire.
Good-Bye State of Israel and thank you for the all your suicide behavior of the last 60 years! Do not count on China and India to save you Israel. - Reply to this comment
