Hispanic Panic For The GOP

Weekly Standard: Party's Lack Of Support Among Hispanic Voters Could Derail Future Presidential Hopes

(Weekly Standard)  This column was written by Duncan Currie.

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Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart, a Cuban-American Republican from the Miami area, puts it bluntly: "We have a very, very serious problem." He is referring to the GOP's lack of support among Hispanics, which could derail the party's future presidential hopes.

In a September 2007 Washington Post column, former Bush speechwriter Michael Gerson noted that "a substantial shift of Hispanic voters toward the Democrats" in five states--Florida, Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico--"could make the national political map unwinnable for Republicans." All five of those states went for George W. Bush in 2004, and all but Arizona went for Barack Obama in 2008. Democratic pollster Fernand Amandi of Bendixen & Associates, which specializes in Hispanic public opinion, says that "the Hispanic vote played a crucial role, if not the determinant role" in helping Obama carry Florida, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico.

The numbers in Florida were especially striking. According to the exit polls, Bush won Florida Hispanics by 12 percentage points (56-44) in 2004, while John McCain lost Florida Hispanics by 15 percentage points (57-42) in 2008. In other words, between 2004 and 2008, the Hispanic presidential vote in Florida swung by 27 percentage points.

What explains that? Among other things, a decline in the relative strength of the Cuban vote, which remains heavily Republican. An increasingly large share of Florida's Hispanic population is made up of Puerto Ricans, Dominicans, Mexicans, Nicaraguans, Colombians, -Venezuelans, Argentines, and other non-Cubans. Indeed, according to Bendixen & Associates, non-Cubans now account for a majority of Latino voters in the Sunshine State. (Just 20 years ago, says Amandi, Cubans represented around 90 percent of Florida's Hispanic voters.) It appears that Obama also did noticeably better among Florida Cubans than John Kerry did four years ago, thanks to the younger generation of Cuban Americans, though McCain still received a huge majority of the Cuban vote.

What about Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico? In each of these states, Latinos made up a significantly bigger portion of the electorate in 2008 than they did in 2004. The Pew Hispanic Center reports that the increase was 5 percentage points in Colorado, 5 percentage points in Nevada, and 9 percentage points in New Mexico. In 2008, Latinos accounted for 13 percent of the electorate in Colorado, 15 percent in Nevada, and 41 percent in New Mexico.

According to the exit polls, Obama ran 16 percentage points ahead of Kerry among Nevada Hispanics and 13 percentage points ahead of Kerry among New Mexico Hispanics. In Colorado, Obama actually ran 7 percentage points behind Kerry among Hispanics, but he still won 61 percent of the Latino vote and ran 8 percentage points ahead of Kerry among white voters.

Even in McCain's home state of Arizona, Obama won Hispanics by 15 percentage points (56-41). In Texas, Obama won Hispanics by 28 percentage points (63-35). James Gimpel, an immigration expert at the University of Maryland, predicts that Arizona and even Texas will soon become "blue" states thanks to their large and rapidly growing Hispanic populations. (In 2008, Hispanics were 16 percent of the electorate in Arizona and 20 percent of the electorate in Texas.)

Just a few years ago, it seemed as if Latinos might be opening up to the GOP. According to the Pew Hispanic Center, the partisan affiliation gap among Latinos shrank from 33 percentage points in 1999 to 21 percentage points in 2006. Yet in late 2007, Pew reported that the gap had swelled to 34 percentage points.

What happened? Many blame the debate over comprehensive immigration reform, which produced fierce legislative showdowns in 2006 and 2007. "It was the tone of the debate," says Diaz-Balart. "The tone of some Republicans was offensive to the vast majority of Hispanics." He believes this "had a devastating effect" on the party's standing with Latino voters.

"The immigration debate was catastrophically divisive for Republicans," says a GOP Senate staffer (who is Hispanic). He fears that a replay of the 2006 and 2007 immigration spats would "fracture" the GOP and worsen its image among Hispanics.

But immigration is hardly the only factor driving Latinos away from Republicans. Gimpel observes that Hispanic immigrants tend to settle in cities and urban areas that are heavily Democratic. ("Party building is territorial.") He also makes a broader point: As long as the steady inflow of Hispanics to the United States consists predominantly of low-income, low-education immigrants, the GOP will have a difficult time making serious gains among Hispanic voters. As Latinos climb the economic ladder, they are more likely to support Republicans. "But that takes a while," says Gimpel.

The Census Bureau estimates that Hispanics were responsible for about half of America's population growth between 2000 and 2006. During that period, the Hispanic population grew by roughly 24.3 percent, while the total U.S. population grew by only 6.1 percent. In 2007, U.S. Hispanics "had a median age of 27.6, compared with the population as a whole at 36.6. Almost 34 percent of the Hispanic population was younger than 18, compared with 25 percent of the total population." The Census Bureau has projected that Hispanics' share of the total population will grow from 15.5 percent in 2010 to 24.4 percent in 2050.

Of course, demographic forecasts are often unreliable, and there is no guarantee that Hispanic population growth will continue at its current pace. As economists Gordon Hanson and Craig McIntosh of the University of California, San Diego, have written, population growth in Mexico has decreased dramatically. Indeed, the 1970 to 2000 decline in fertility in Mexico is one of the fastest ever recorded. Will slowing population growth contribute to slower increases in emigration rates in the future? Absent network effects (and holding labor demand constant), the answer would appear to be yes.

For "network effects," think reunification of extended families--a process that means growth here "may continue to accelerate for some time, even as population growth in the two countries continues to converge."

Hispanics are now fueling population growth in unlikely places, such as Iowa. "In some parts of Iowa, where the white population is shrinking, Hispanics are supplying all the growth," the Muscatine Journal reported in August, noting that Hispanic women have a higher fertility rate and that "young white Iowans are moving out of the state right when they're about ready to start families."

The U.S. Latino community is quite heterogeneous, and it would be misleading to portray "the Hispanic vote" as a monolith. In his recent book on immigration, British journalist and former World Trade Organization adviser Philippe Legrain stressed that "successive generations are blending in with the rest of U.S. society." According to data cited by Legrain, "whereas only 8 percent of foreign-born Latinos marry non-Latinos, 32 percent of second generation and 57 percent of third-generation Latinos marry outside their ethnic group."

Indeed, intermarriage is making "Hispanic" a slippery label. Former Florida governor Jeb Bush, for example, is married to a Mexican-American woman. Should their three children be counted as Hispanics?

Over time, as Latinos become more assimilated and see their incomes rise, they may look more favorably on the Republicans. But the constant influx of low-skilled Hispanic immigrants benefits the Democrats, says Gimpel, which means the GOP is fighting an uphill battle. And the self-inflicted wounds of the immigration debate have not yet healed. Until they do, Diaz-Balart says the Republicans "are really in bad shape."

Duncan Currie is managing editor of The American.

[ayesp2]

As a second generation Hispanic I will never forget how the 2008 presidential campaign unfolded. The insensitive and vicious hate mongering message republican candidates delivered was painful indeed.
As far as I go the negative feedback and the undeserved indignation my young children suffered during this embarrassing period will never be forgotten. Most Legal, hard working Hispanics throughout America share my view. So don''t go wasting your time and money with token Hispanic talking heads.
"The pain runs too deep"

PS. Sean Hannity is your worst enemy

[Razzl]

Diaz-Balart has it exactly right, the tone and substance of the immigration "debate" from the Republican side was fiercely racist, driven by right-wing hate radio doing what they do best, which is stoke up hate among the "god and guns" poor whites who Obama isn''t supposed to talk about openly. When there are no conservative intellectuals or GOP Congressman who understand the importance of not letting the debate go that way or the importance of risking public ridicule for deflecting the debate into constructive pathways, then bad consequences were inevitable. Leadership with integrity (as opposed to the cynical manipulation of the DeLays and Cheneys out there) is what is required to save the GOP, and it will come at the price of marginalizing the lynch mobs who presently own that party...

[babooph]

All the brains left for Obama-only deluded wannabe plumbers,whaco jesus freaks&trust fund babies are left in the party.

[ofbyfor3]

Illegal immigrants should not be allowed to vote until they have been upstanding citizens at least 5 to 10 years and PROVE they are loyal to America not their former countries. That way, Dems and Republicans would have less incentive to stack the deck with them.

Posted by harbinger09 at 05:25 AM : Nov 19, 2008

Illegal immigrants are not allowed to vote. You have to become a citizen first. I hope you already knew that.

[juwboy]

If you`re from Brazil where the national language is Portuguese, are you Hispanic?

[harbinger09]

You are Hispanic if you come from a place where Spanish is spoken widely and you and/or your ancestors came from Central and/or South America. Being Hispanic is a culture and not a nationality. We Hispanics all belong to one "giant family". What happens to one, happens to all. As a culture, we view the punitive GOP efforts to harness illegal workers as an affront to all Hispanics. Thus, we turn to the Democrats who have not behaved as badly to Hispanics. In my lifetime, I and my family will vote Democratic because we view Republicans as anti-Hispanic. Can this change? It will take years and much effort by the GOP to change our minds.


Posted by ramos937 at 02:05 PM : Nov 18, 2008


Many people from Central or South America do NOT consider themselves to be Hispanic--they are Latino.
"Hispanic" means world Spanish and comes from places settled by European Spanish and mixed with native American blood and possibly other Europeans.

Latino--are those who may speak Portugese or Spanish, but also count African ancestry among their mix. I know of no Nicaraguan or Dominican Republican or Brazilian or Venezuelan who would ever characterize themselves as "Hispanic"

[harbinger09]

This is why Dems favor illegal immigration--it is not some great love for the people--it is all the future voters who will swell their numbers. The greed and need of the cons to exploit cheap labor was and remains their undoing. The problem with chickens--is that they come home to roost. The Hispanic chicken found a more comfortable roosting spot with the party that tended to welcome them, not want to send them home.

Illegal immigrants should not be allowed to vote until they have been upstanding citizens at least 5 to 10 years and PROVE they are loyal to America not their former countries. That way, Dems and Republicans would have less incentive to stack the deck with them.

[ausus-2009]

Stop stereotyping.

There are Hispanics, blacks, Asians, native Americans and various other ethnic groups in both the Republican and Democratic Party. The article leads off by mentioning a Cuban American Republican. It mentions that Jeb Bush is married to a Mexican-American. It also mentions a GOP Senate staffer who is Hispanic. GWB''s former Attorney General was also Hispanic.

John McCain adopted a Bangladeshi orphan - hardly the hallmark of a racist.

As the article points mentions, "As Latinos climb the economic ladder, they are more likely to support Republicans."

[imnho]

Hate is not a family value. Thta is something the republicans need to learn from there errors. During the immagration debate they declared open season on Hispanics. It was was done in a subtle manner,but the meaning was clear.

They are going to be dealing with the blowback for a very long time.

[hennighg]

The conservatives shot themselves in the foot (which was in the mouth at the time.) To distract voters from the war in 2006 (the war was the issue then) they created the spooky ookum "hey, them Mexicans is takin'' yer jobs!" And they lost their vote. And it didn''t help in the off-year, either. And now they have to go back to the chalk board to find a new way to make the US into a Northern Brazil.

[rushlimpdrug]

1. You are Hispanic if you come from a place where Spanish is spoken widely and you and/or your ancestors came from Central and/or South America.
2. Being Hispanic is a culture and not a nationality.
3. We Hispanics all belong to one "giant family".
4. What happens to one, happens to all.
Posted by ramos937 at 02:05 PM :

1. That is STUPID;
2. More stupid;
3. Even more stupid;
4. Can you get over stupid?

Grow up.

[noloyalisti]

The Grand Oil Party became the party of white, rich, racist elitists. They represent everything that works against the workers, middle class and minorities of America.

[huanaco]

FINALLY THE HISPANIC POPULATION FIGURE OUT WHO IS WITH THEM AND WHO IS NOT WITH THEM. REPUBLICANS HAS BEEN ALWAYS IN THE WRONG SIDE OF MINORITIES, PRESIDENT JOHNSON,S GREAT SOCIETY PLAN WAS LITTLE BY LITTLE TORN APART BY THEM AND ALMOST NOTHING GOOD COULD COME FROM THIS ROTTEN PARTY HOME OF THOSE WHO HAVE MORE AND MORE.

[alfarsar]

This is easy to explain: Hispanics admire people of intellect. Even very humble of Hispanics with no education can tell a smart person when they see one.
That''s why they love Obama in the first place.

[ramos937]

Khalif-Obama misses the point entirely. I will try to enlighten him/her.

You are Hispanic if you come from a place where Spanish is spoken widely and you and/or your ancestors came from Central and/or South America. Being Hispanic is a culture and not a nationality. We Hispanics all belong to one "giant family". What happens to one, happens to all. As a culture, we view the punitive GOP efforts to harness illegal workers as an affront to all Hispanics. Thus, we turn to the Democrats who have not behaved as badly to Hispanics. In my lifetime, I and my family will vote Democratic because we view Republicans as anti-Hispanic. Can this change? It will take years and much effort by the GOP to change our minds.

[khalif-obama]

Interesting article, but as always, completely clueless as to the realities of the Hispanic communities, as there is no Hispanic "community" per se. Trying to clump them together at this time is akin to saying all white or quasi-whites (Jews and some Europeans of Mediterranean ancestry) were a homogeneous block back in the 20''s. You had your WASPs, but then you had your Italians, your Russians, your Poles, your Irish, etc.
Folks who are here because they escaped a Communist dictatorship, like Cubans, Nicaraguans (remember the Contras and Reagan?) and Venezuelans (courtesy of Chavez) vote Republican in virtual unison. Other immigrant groups, who are here because of economic reasons, are galvanized Democrats, such as Mexicans and Puerto Ricans. I know, they all look the same to you, but if you really want to strategize for the future, you need to look at them as independent blocks.

[noloyalisti]

I guess the Hispanics finally figured out what the GOP was about. Lying, spying and torture and signing up the poor to kill foreigners for the rich corporations.

Using them to keep wages low and break up the unions. Using them to prop up awful companies like Wal-Mart and other race to the bottom fascist corporations.