June 26, 2009 5:17 PM
- Text
Republicans Ask: Just How Bad Is It?
Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota takes part in a session in Miami on Wednesday, Nov. 12, 2008, of the annual Republican Governors Association Conference. (AP Photo/John Watson-Riley)
(The Politico)
This column was written by
Jonathan Martin.
Party leaders agree that the GOP has had a rough go of it at the polls in recent years.
How could they not?
Since 2004, they've gone from 55 Senate seats to no more than 43 once this year's last winners are determined, and from a 29-seat edge in the House to a 30 seat hole-and now they've lost the presidency, too.
They differ, though, on whether the heavy losses Republicans suffered in the past two election cycles were a result of unique circumstances and the ever-swinging political pendulum or structural problems that could keep them shut out of power for years to come.
GOP officials and strategists at party conferences last week offered sharply contrasting assessments of what went wrong, and of how difficult it will be to rebuild. Perhaps not surprisingly, the split tended to fall along generational lines.
Older party hands pointed to John McCain's lackluster campaign and the difficult terrain Republicans found themselves battling on this year, and eschewed any sky-is-falling rhetoric. The up-and-comers, meanwhile, sounded the alarm of impending permanent minority status unless the party changes.
"I have looked down at the grave of the Republican Party and this ain't it," assured Mississippi Gov. and 90s-era RNC chairman Haley Barbour, "I've seen it a lot worse."
Barbour, speaking on a panel session at the Republican Governor's Association meeting in Miami devoted to sifting through this year's electoral destruction, recalled serving as executive director of his state party in the aftermath of President Nixon's resignation, when Democrats elected 49 "Watergate Babies" to the House in 1974.
It got so bad, Barbour recalled, that there was a task force set up to consider whether Republicans should change their name.
As for this year, Barbour argued there was a way to defeat Obama-by rendering him unacceptable to American voters.
"And the McCain campaign did not choose to try to make that argument," he observed.
RNC Chairman Mike Duncan, who has worked at the highest levels of Kentucky and national Republican politics for decades, expressed optimism about the GOP's prospects for the 2010 mid-term elections, suggesting the GOP losses this year were a result of a toxic stew very much unique to the cycle.
"The mood of the country is what was bad in this campaign," Duncan said in an interview at the governor's meeting. "It was 90-10 wrong track, you had the war, we had the economy going south on us, we had the third-term curse, all those things."
What it was not, he insisted-offering post-election polling that showed voters still supported right-leaning positions, just not McCain, to make his case-was a rejection of the party's conservative philosophy.
"If you look at the American electorate, and where they stand and what they believe-we're in good shape."
A group of younger Republicans expressed a very different view, warning that the GOP was on the verge of irrelevance if it did not make changes to appeal to a changing electorate.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty opened up a luncheon speech to his fellow governors by noting that excuses could be made, citing the unpopularity of President Bush, the Iraq war and the poor state of the economy.
But, he continued, such a rationale was "not fair and it's not complete." The party's problem, he said, is far more grave.
"We cannot be a majority governing party when we essentially cannot compete in the northeast; we are losing our ability to compete in the Great Lakes states, we cannot compete on the west coast," Pawlenty argued, also citing similar problems in the mid-Atlantic and interior west. "Similarly, we cannot compete and prevail as a majority governing party when we have a significant deficit as we do with woman, where we have a large deficit with Hispanics, where we have a large deficit with African-American voters, where we have a large deficit with people of modest incomes."
While just 43 percent of whites voted for Obama, the group now makes up just 74% of the electorate, down from 89% in 1980. And that trend is accelerating. Just since 2003, whites' share of the electorate fell four percentage points, while blacks, Latinos and Asians increased by three points, to 23 percent, and gave the Democrat 95%, 66% and 61% support respectively.
Later, talking to reporters, Pawlenty put it more plainly: "The Republican Party is going to need more than just a comb-over."
He doesn't advocate for a major ideological shift-few prominent voices in the party are-but rather for aggressively offering solutions on issues such as health care, energy and education that have been viewed as Democratic turf.
Jonathan Martin.
Party leaders agree that the GOP has had a rough go of it at the polls in recent years.
How could they not?
Since 2004, they've gone from 55 Senate seats to no more than 43 once this year's last winners are determined, and from a 29-seat edge in the House to a 30 seat hole-and now they've lost the presidency, too.
They differ, though, on whether the heavy losses Republicans suffered in the past two election cycles were a result of unique circumstances and the ever-swinging political pendulum or structural problems that could keep them shut out of power for years to come.
GOP officials and strategists at party conferences last week offered sharply contrasting assessments of what went wrong, and of how difficult it will be to rebuild. Perhaps not surprisingly, the split tended to fall along generational lines.
Older party hands pointed to John McCain's lackluster campaign and the difficult terrain Republicans found themselves battling on this year, and eschewed any sky-is-falling rhetoric. The up-and-comers, meanwhile, sounded the alarm of impending permanent minority status unless the party changes.
"I have looked down at the grave of the Republican Party and this ain't it," assured Mississippi Gov. and 90s-era RNC chairman Haley Barbour, "I've seen it a lot worse."
Barbour, speaking on a panel session at the Republican Governor's Association meeting in Miami devoted to sifting through this year's electoral destruction, recalled serving as executive director of his state party in the aftermath of President Nixon's resignation, when Democrats elected 49 "Watergate Babies" to the House in 1974.
It got so bad, Barbour recalled, that there was a task force set up to consider whether Republicans should change their name.
As for this year, Barbour argued there was a way to defeat Obama-by rendering him unacceptable to American voters.
"And the McCain campaign did not choose to try to make that argument," he observed.
RNC Chairman Mike Duncan, who has worked at the highest levels of Kentucky and national Republican politics for decades, expressed optimism about the GOP's prospects for the 2010 mid-term elections, suggesting the GOP losses this year were a result of a toxic stew very much unique to the cycle.
"The mood of the country is what was bad in this campaign," Duncan said in an interview at the governor's meeting. "It was 90-10 wrong track, you had the war, we had the economy going south on us, we had the third-term curse, all those things."
What it was not, he insisted-offering post-election polling that showed voters still supported right-leaning positions, just not McCain, to make his case-was a rejection of the party's conservative philosophy.
"If you look at the American electorate, and where they stand and what they believe-we're in good shape."
A group of younger Republicans expressed a very different view, warning that the GOP was on the verge of irrelevance if it did not make changes to appeal to a changing electorate.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty opened up a luncheon speech to his fellow governors by noting that excuses could be made, citing the unpopularity of President Bush, the Iraq war and the poor state of the economy.
But, he continued, such a rationale was "not fair and it's not complete." The party's problem, he said, is far more grave.
"We cannot be a majority governing party when we essentially cannot compete in the northeast; we are losing our ability to compete in the Great Lakes states, we cannot compete on the west coast," Pawlenty argued, also citing similar problems in the mid-Atlantic and interior west. "Similarly, we cannot compete and prevail as a majority governing party when we have a significant deficit as we do with woman, where we have a large deficit with Hispanics, where we have a large deficit with African-American voters, where we have a large deficit with people of modest incomes."
While just 43 percent of whites voted for Obama, the group now makes up just 74% of the electorate, down from 89% in 1980. And that trend is accelerating. Just since 2003, whites' share of the electorate fell four percentage points, while blacks, Latinos and Asians increased by three points, to 23 percent, and gave the Democrat 95%, 66% and 61% support respectively.
Later, talking to reporters, Pawlenty put it more plainly: "The Republican Party is going to need more than just a comb-over."
He doesn't advocate for a major ideological shift-few prominent voices in the party are-but rather for aggressively offering solutions on issues such as health care, energy and education that have been viewed as Democratic turf.
- 1
- 2
- Next Page »
Popular Now in Politics
- Timothy Dolan: Birth control tweak a "first step"
- Archbishop Dolan urges Obama to back down on birth control
- CPAC: Santorum rips Romney, rouses conservatives
- After uproar, Obama tweaks birth control rule
- Santorum: Women could bring "emotions" to combat
- Ann Coulter riles up the CPAC crowd
- STOCK Act passes in House
- CPAC: Will Sarah Palin spring a surprise?
- Romney takes on hecklers at Maine town hall
- Obama to announce revamp of birth control policy
- Santorum's big benefactor
- Former Giffords aide to run for her House seat
- CPAC: Huckabee "thanks" Obama for birth control firestorm
- Romney says his conservatism will shine
- Report: Chicago cardinal joins contraceptives fight
- Occupy protestors kicked out of CPAC
- Is Rick Santorum conservatives' last, best hope?
Latest CBS News Headlines
on Facebook
on CBS News
- City of Homs becomes focus of Syria's uprising
- Libya issues election law for national congress
- Faces beyond the numbers of long-term unemployed
- Israel's president sends message of peace to Iran
on Facebook
- Adele sings a cappella for Anderson Cooper
- Beyonce and Jay-Z post first photos of Blue Ivy Carter
- Adele sings a cappella for Anderson Cooper
on CBS News
