What Obama's Win Means

CBSNews.com Analysis: Inside The Numbers Of Barack Obama's Victory Are Signals About What It Could Mean In The Future

(CBS)  By CBSNews.com political analyst Samuel J. Best.

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Barack Obama’s decisive win over McCain signaled more than just the voters’ preferred candidate; it offered valuable insights about the future of American politics. An analysis of the CBS exit polls reveals six key lessons from the 2008 presidential election:

Americans Want Change: Voters are clearly weary of eight years under the Bush Administration and want the country to move in a new direction. Three quarters of Americans said the country is on the wrong track, while 72 percent of voters disapproved of the job President Bush is doing. More than a third of voters desired a candidate who will bring about needed change.

Amongst all these voters, Obama was seen as the presidential candidate most capable of bringing change. Among voters citing change as the quality that mattered most to them, 89 percent voted for Obama. In contrast, voters were split evenly over whether McCain would continue Bush’s policies or move the country in a different direction. Of the 48 percent of voters who said McCain would continue Bush’s policies, 90 percent supported Obama, compared to 8 percent who supported McCain.

It’s the Economy, Stupid: Voters think the first priority of an incoming Obama Administration is to remedy the struggling economy. Ninety-three percent of voters said the economy was not good or poor. Eighty-one percent of voters were worried that the current economic crisis would harm their family’s finances in the next year. And, more than 6 out of 10 voters named the economy as the single most important issue facing the country.

More importantly, a sizable majority of voters believed Obama is better suited to turn around the economy than McCain. Among the voters who said that the economy was the most important issue facing the country, 54 percent chose Obama, compared to 45 percent who chose McCain. Moreover, among the 47 percent of voters who think financial conditions will get better over the next year, 61 percent voted for Obama as opposed to only 38 percent who voted for McCain.

Clinton Voters Came Home: The divisive Democratic primary between Obama and Hillary Clinton did not tear the party apart. In fact, Obama’s ability to retain an overwhelming majority of Clinton supporters was a key factor in his victory over McCain. Among Democratic voters who wanted Clinton to win the Democratic nomination, 82 percent supported Obama. Moreover, among the 52 percent of voters who would have voted for Clinton in a hypothetical match-up against McCain, 83 percent voted for Obama.

Clinton’s support during the primaries came disproportionately from a coalition of Hispanics, union households, low income voters, and white women, which frequently supported her by double-digit margins. In each of these cases, Obama was able to overcome in poor showings during the primaries and secure their support on Election Day. Obama won Hispanics 66 percent to 31 percent, won union households 58 percent to 40 percent, won low income (<$50,000) voters 60 percent to 38 percent, and narrowly lost white female voters 53 percent to 46 percent - reducing the Republican advantage among white female voters by three points.

Minority Voters Are An Electoral Force: The 2008 presidential election highlighted the increasing importance of black and Hispanic voters in the electorate. In numerous battleground states, Obama was able to score decisive victories among these groups and offset McCain’s sizable advantage among white voters. As these groups continue to expand their share of the electorate, their impact should continue to grow.

Support from black voters was instrumental to his surprising victories in several swing states on the East Coast. In Virginia, Obama won the support of 92 percent of the black vote and was able to overcome McCain’s twenty-one point margin among white voters. In Pennsylvania, Obama’s 95 percent support among black voter was able to trump McCain’s 51 percent to 48 percent support from white voters.

Support from Hispanic voters keyed victories in several swing states in the sunbelt. In Nevada, Obama was able to trump McCain’s 56 percent to 42 percent advantage among white voters by winning 75 percent of the Hispanic vote. In New Mexico, Obama’s 69 percent support among Hispanics was able to offset McCain’s 56 percent to 44 percent victory among white voters. And in Florida, Obama’s fifteen point advantage among Hispanics diminished the impact of McCain’s fourteen point advantage among white voters.

New Voters Have A Distinct Democratic Outlook: This year 11 percent of the electorate were first-time voters, roughly the same number that comprised the electorate in the last election. However, first-time voters in 2008 are considerably more Democratic than their 2004 counterparts. Sixty-nine of first-time voters backed Obama, compared to 54 percent of first-time voters who supported John Kerry. More importantly for future Democratic prospects, new voters identify disproportionately with the Democratic Party. Nationwide, 46 percent of new voters describe themselves are Democrats, while 22 percent describe themselves as Republicans. This is a sizable shift from 2004 when partisanship was about evenly split among first-time voters, with 38 percent calling themselves Democrats, 34 percent calling themselves Republicans.

Money Still Matters: Obama’s decision to reject public financing and build his own campaign war chest demonstrates once again the importance of money to develop a deep and wide campaign organization. Overall, 26 percent of voters were contacted by Obama during the campaign, compared to 19 percent who were contacted by the McCain. These contacts proved critical to the outcome. Obama received 65 percent support among those voters who were contacted by his campaign, compared to only 47 percent support from those voters who were not contacted by his campaign. Conversely, McCain received 60 percent support among those voters who were contacted by his campaign, compared to only 43 percent support from those voters who were not contacted by his campaign.

The exit polls mentioned in this story were conducted by Edison/Mitofsky Research for the National Election Pool among 17,834 voters nationwide as they left the polls on November 4, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 1 percentage point for the entire sample.

Samuel J Best is an associate professor of political science at the University of Connecticut. He has published a book and several scholarly articles on American public opinion and survey research. He holds a Ph.D. from the State University of New York at Stony Brook.

[oneworldusa]

Obama''s win means GW is OUT, SOON!

[usmcvn1]

Today, Men''''s rooms across America are safer!!

[lukebize]

libsRcrooks, you and your kind are why John McCain lost the election. You are why I couldn''t vote for McCain. I like McCain. Voted for him against the Bush (aka as snatch). I believe he is the same generous, graceful man I knew in 2000.

But I couldn''t vote for him because of the undue influence the Republican party has given to influences just like you. So eat your loss, and try to learn from it. Try apologizing for your many offenses over the past eight years. Without that first step, you may as well resign yourself to the long dark night of political obscurity you so well deserve.

[helenahandb]

Obama''s win means we will now share the wealth. As I overheard one little black lady say: "We''re gonna be on easy street now." OK. Whatever. Don''t know what SHE expects to happen to put us (her?) on easy street.

One thing I hope will come of this..... I hope now that black folks will stop whining about how racist we are in America and how whites conspire to keep them down. Obama could never have won without the help of millions of white folks who didn''t care what color his skin is.

MLK dreamed of a time when no one would be judged by the color of their skin and we would have a color blind society. Although blacks still quote MLK they seem to always and only focus on the color of their skin. I hope now they will stop focusing on that and instead focus on what kind of people they are and want to become. Focus on getting an education, working hard to advance, taking responsibility for their own lives instead of waiting for others to do something for them.

Q.- How far can a black person go in racist America? A.- All the way to the top.

[trueblueusa]

I`m a Hypocritical LOSER !Posted by libsRcrooks at 05:45 AM : Nov 05, 2008
YES.YOU are a BIGOT & a LOSER !!! JUMP !!!!

[Regensburger]

Obama supporters:

In your post-election elation, remember that the hardcore right-wing ideologues who have misinformed, disinformed and deceived the American public aren''t going away. Never forget them.

Our job now is to show them, by example, the civilized way past their hatred. If we don''t, they will only use any missteps on our part, real or vacuous, as an excuse to get stronger.

[shochikibo]

libsRcrooks: you wrote "This is going to be great watching Obama''s america implode" Your fellow terrorist, bin Laden, could not have said it better. You clearly have more in common with those who hate America than with those willing to work to make things better.

[babooph]

The good news for John-he can wash off that greasy makeup & stop pretending he is religous-he will still fake respect for Palin though.

[shochikibo]

helenahandb, you wrote: "Although blacks still quote MLK they seem to always and only focus on the color of their skin." What a great example you set. You are clearly not focused on skin color . . . are you?

[hawksprings]

Here''s the "Change" that is coming:

The last time a Democrat President had this big of a majority in Congress was Jimmy Carter.
And we all know how that turned out... record high taxes, double digit inflation, double digit unemployment, severe military cutbacks, and a military that couldn''t tie it''s own shoes.

You''ve already seen how Peloozi and Reed lead.
Now they have Obama to help them.
They''ve promised to let the Bush tax cuts expire, and to raise taxes on top of that, which will be the biggest tax increase in US history.
Obama has promised to ''spread the wealth around.''

It''s going to be the 70''s all over agian.
History tends to repeat itself.

[Grahamsgirl]

libsRcrooks.....you''re clearly a bigot and a poor example of an American. If you''re *** scared of what Obama will do in the white house here''s a simple solution ...MOVE! Your pesimistic attitude will do nothing but inspire and eventually get you killed by all the ANGRY LIBERALS THAT YOU CALL CROOKS...NOW...go tell that.

[joezap5]

HawkSprings, Try to be an American for once, AMERICA FIRST!!! COUNTRY FIRST!!! You NeoCons are still trying to destroy this country, even in defeat...

Instead of Patriots you guys sound like a whining puss who, if he can''t be quarterback, is going to take his football home.

After 8 years of G.O.P. failure, America needs patriots to come forward and put themselves last...

[davide73-2009]

What it means: The Exxon Mobil sign above this article isn''t going to be calling the shots anymore.

[likeitis5050]

After 8 years of G.O.P. failure, America needs patriots to come forward and put themselves last...






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Posted by joezap5


Are you that stupid to think when BO starts tapping the payrolls of all these small businesses that ''patriots'' will be born?

The money needed to run this super-size government that wipes away all the worries of people who don''t even pay taxes now has to come from some place and if you think it will be the billion dollar corporations and billionairs in this country you are mentally challenged, and I apologize for being so blunt with you. When you have people leaving voting booths saying, ''no more worries about putting gas in the car...no more worries about paying my mortgage...I helped and now he gonna help me..'' the honeymoon is set to expire immediately for anyone with two brain cells not out on search and destroy mission for each other. But yuck it up. It was an election worth every penny it took to purchase it. Reality is coming right at you....

[hennighg]

What Obama''s victory means to me is that even if he can''t clean up Bush the second''s mess right away, even if there are slip-ups and gaffs, even if the change is difficult, we will not be run by arrogant and barely competent trickle down economists(read: con artists). We don''t want to be a country that tortures its prisoners. We don''t want to be a country that ignores its own citizens because of their income level, race, sexual orientation, ***, or place of birth. We don''t want to be a nation where less than 1% of the population is incubated from life''s reality because they have the bucks. We don''t want to be a nation where people die because they can''t afford the health care denied them by big corporate medical and insurance entities.

We want to be a nation that thinks of its own people as citizens, therefore deserving of our best. We want to be a nation of people who work and pay taxes and who then get fair representation in the government. We want to be a nation that does not decide good and bad based on what we''ve got in our wallet, but by what we know is the right thing to do. We want to be a nation that has hope, believes in the positive possibilities of life, and who are willing to share that view with not only all of our citizens but with the citizens of the world.

[hennighg]

Pt. II

Only Mr. Obama offers us a chance to achieve this. Even if we fail to achieve it, however, I am proud to be in a nation that can at least try to achieve it. This wasn''t just a historical election. It was an election of GOOD historical relevance. Hurray for the citizens for choosing the right man.

[joezap5]

...with two brain cells not out on search and destroy mission for each other. But yuck it up. It was an election worth every penny it took to purchase it. Reality is coming right at you....


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Posted by likeitis5050 at 09:23 AM : Nov 05, 2008

Did you get all or just part of your education from AM Radio? "Every penny to purchase the election..." -So sorry America didn''t donate to your Party of failures. Jealousy is ugly...

[armydog2]

Obama''s win means that hope and integrity are alive and well in this Country! It will not be an easy road we have to travel but we can overcome all of the failures of the past 8 years as a united Country.There is no more white America or Black America, there is the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!!

[joezap5]

likeitis5050, Every recession and every depression in modern American history has come at the hands of wingnuts like you blindly following thre G.O.P. As usual, in the tradition of FDR and Clinton, The DEMOCRATS will have to clean up your mess...

[joezap5]

likeitis5050, I didn''t hear a single person leaving the voting booth saying the *** your talking about. AM Radio is rotting your brain and destroying our country. What happened to COUNTRY FIRST?!!!

[troglobyte]

The American People have spoken, WE THE PEOPLE have made our choice. Hopefully we were not lied to, again.

[sampson4luvsadoni]

I have been reading your comments and you talk about unity, but all you are doing is showing strife and devision. If you want unity, it doesn''t come from one man, rather from many working together for a common good. I did not vote for Oboma, however, he is the man the majority of the country wants. Just as every other president entered into office. We need to unite and work together instead of bicker like a bunch of kindergardner''s about who''s dodgeball team won. I am disappointed in my countries choice, but its my country and I love it. So, regardless of what''s ahead we must enter into it with carefull prayer and consideration.

[model67a]

I hope and pray that I was wrong because if I wasn''t wrong all of us, even the one''s that voted against Obama, will suffer.

[jahmonhil]

The people cried out for a king and God gave them Saul. Read 1st Samuel 8 in it''s entirety...

[Mccarthyaw]

It will be interesting to watch the faces of those who elected Barack Obama - they will rapidly change from their wide-eyed wonder - to confusion, then to apprehension, then to disbelief, and finally to horror as they discover their new leader is as hollow as the promises he has made.

Joe Biden is right - Barack Obama will be tested, and the entire Democrat-controlled Congress will be tested - and they will not have the luxury of blaming anyone else for their own failures.

And fail, the Democrats will.

And fail, Barack Obama will.

And then comes the judgement of the American people.

And it will be severe.

No more whining, Democrats - now you get to be the punching bag.

Posted by CBSisPravda at 10:12 AM : Nov 05, 2008

Cool, you can see the future. Obama fails even before he is president.

[bjcone8559]

America feels so clean today!!!! Eight years of slime has been washed away!!!

[ramos937]

Support from Hispanic voters keyed victories in several swing states in the sunbelt. In Nevada, Obama was able to trump McCain%u2019s 56 percent to 42 percent advantage among white voters by winning 75 percent of the Hispanic vote. In New Mexico, Obama%u2019s 69 percent support among Hispanics was able to offset McCain%u2019s 56 percent to 44 percent victory among white voters. And in Florida, Obama%u2019s fifteen point advantage among Hispanics diminished the impact of McCain%u2019s fourteen point advantage among white voters.
------------------------------------------

The Democrats can retain the Hispanic support by passing a realistic immigration control plan that does include border control. The Republicans never will.

Folks have to understand something about campaign promises made by McCain and/or Obama. It is mandatory that they go on the back shelf for an indefinite time. The current economic crisis will demand all of the new administration''s attention for most if not all of the four years.

[joanne600]

I would be perfectly happy to be wrong in my assessment of Obama as I have absolutely no vested interest in being right. I particularly hope that he is able to withstand a tough international challenge and act competently and in our best interests. That one scares me, but I have faith that I could be needlessly worried on that front. However, I am completely certain that his tax policy is baloney because the math just doesn''t work. The middle class people who voted for him mainly because they believe that more money will end up in their pockets are going to find themselves paying higher taxes when the Bush tax cuts expire. Unemployment is going to continue to rise, small businesses will be hit and they are a central component of our economy. I would like to see Obama more interested in helping small businesses, where he has heretofore not shown any interest, rather than in creating more union jobs. I mean I understand that Democrats promote unions because it buys them the votes, but unions are not the backbone of this country. In any case, I have no choice but to keep an open mind and to work hard on the midterm elections. God bless America.

[tuckerdogavl]

Where are all those Bush supporters that were always saying, "he''s our president! Just shut up and show your patriotism and support our president?" Where did they go? Oh right. They are the rightists....and they are always right and only they can be right. And right they are, and right they must be. What happened to COUNTRY FIRST!?!?! Oh. Right. Their country only. The right one.

[mswolfestock]

mccarthy51 and all the rest of you -

Quit gorging on sour grapes . . . . . .

AND QUIT YOUR WHINING.

Where is all of your hot air about loving your country?

I''m just tickled to death to hope that now Rush Limbaugh and all the other wind-bags will shut up and get a life.

[sampson4luvsadoni]

Just keep whining and complaining and see how far it gets you. My big question is did he ever present proof that he is even leagally alowed to be our President? You know a natural born citizen of the USA. If not the election was not admisable anyway. So lets not complain about not getting our own way and make sure our president is leagally OUR PRESIDENT. In the mean time, stop whining, its anoying.

[dkhorse1]

I''''m just tickled to death to hope that now Rush Limbaugh and all the other wind-bags will shut up and get a life.

Posted by mswolfestock at 11:32 AM : Nov 05, 2008

So will Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton, etc.

[helenahandb]

Posted by shochikibo 2008 "What a great example you set. You are clearly not focused on skin color . . . are you?"

If you''re trying to suggest that I''m racist you''re barking up the wrong tree. I couldn''t care less if someone is purple. I have a tendency to look at who they are, what they stand for and what kind of person they are. I guess it''s easier to make insinuations than it is to consider the truth of the statement.

MLK hoped for a color blind society where the color of someone''s skin was not an issue at all. But, quoting MLK all the while, we have the leaders of the black community like Jesse, Al and Rev. Wright who continually feed the fires of racism and insist to black folks that they are no more than miserable victims and it''s white society''s fault. And their solution to the misery is.... what? That society should give them stuff? What about planting the idea that maybe if they get an education and work hard they can improve their life? What about working within the black community to help them change their views of themselves as perpetual victims and help them realise they are just as able to get ahead as anyone but it takes hard work and determination?

I hope to see the time when black folks will take responsibility for their own lives and stop waiting for the government to give them something. My hope is for them to finally begin to see themselves as not just black, but as just people, in the same boat, with the same opportunities, as the rest of us

[joanne600]

LOL - get over it. Rush Limbaugh isn''t going away and neither are conservative values. Don''t listen to him if you don''t want to, I mean this is a free country.

[keljacks2]

It means that from future campaign we might not have to hear politician air their dirty laundrey, but rather talk about issues. His win also means that inspite of what people say you can''t do you can say "Yes I Can". Poverty denial of loans, foreclosures have been the topic of many communities for many years, and its not all our problem so we must help everyone. His win means American now believe in the constitution. A Change for the better is here.

[vatofla]

helenahandb reading your comments, you are clearly racist.

CBSisPravda how odd that you would cherish the fall of our country, because your candidate didn''t win.

Joanne600 wow where did you get the crystal ball of doom?

[olivia4441]

A day to remember?..November 3, 2008!

The day that they United States of America ceased to exist as a free and independent capitalist nation. The day that the pledge of allegiance became a worthless statement and the Constitution was reduced to the status of toilet paper. The day that the principles and ideals that once served as the foundation of the nation were trampled underfoot and banished to the realm of oblivion. The day that the decline and fall of the greatest nation in the world reached the point of no return beyond the possibility of rescue or salvation.

Congratulations to all of the lazy mindless gullible greedy selfish idiots responsible for the travesty who are only capable of sucking off of the *** of the real working citizens of the country and stealing their hard earned money and property for themselves. Congratulation for ushering in the change you so earnestly desired which will establish the first totalitarian government of the United States.

Congratulations to those wonderful racists, those immoral scum bags, those incredible extremists, those stalwarts of socialism, those tremendous lovers of fascism you''ve managed to succeed at the task that all of the previous enemies of the United States of America could not.

[jjyorks]

As a longtime Washingtonian, I wholeheartedly agree with the comment about elite Washington Establishment since I too had long been suspected about it, since all the so-called commanders-in-chief are more of the same when it comes to truly major policies which are actually laid out by establishment in Washington,DC, and then spoon-feed to whoever occupys 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. God Bless America!

[ddaryl1]

LMAO at the republican whine fest

Now you know how we felt with Bush as president. The constitution was worthless, the bill of rights was useless, and the countruy has been reduced to shell of its former self.

How anyone can think Bush or McCain was a better option is impossible to understand. Republicnas are digustingly evil people, and I loathe them all.

[ddaryl1]

I really believe this country is heading for a serious civil war.

I cannot stand the thought of republicans and wouldn''t shed a tear to see them eliminated... and I get the feeling they feel the same about us.

So with that in mind I forsee more division in this country and terroists atttacks from skin head neocon republicans and evangelicans.

they tried to steal this country, and finally some Americans woke the hell up and prevented it.

I will never vote for a republican the rest of my life regardless. NEVER EVER... all because fo what I learned these last 8 years.

[ddaryl1]

LMAO @ Olivia4441 and CBSisPravda

I serioulsy hope you are very very miserable, because that is what the last 8 years has been for real Americans... Not the fascists you are and support.

and in 4 years thngs will be better... and that is going to make you even more miserable because you don''t want America to return to greatness under a black democrat... You selfishly want everything your way and your way only and that is why Americans are developing a very strong hate for republicans.

You did nothing to better this country in 8 years... Not a single thing.. hence the approval rating of the worst president EVER !!!!!

[joanne600]

VatoFla: No doom and gloom from me. I just understand economics so my comments on Obama''s tax policy are actually pretty well thought out. You might not agree with them, but I didn''t put them out there to be gloomy. As I said, I am keeping an open mind on the foreign policy stuff, but his tax policy as it currently stands doesn''t add up. In any case I very much look forward to the mid-term elections.

[olivia4441]

January 20, 2009? If he lives that long. Come on now, one attempt on this president candidate that failed, so you actually think someone will not try again?? He is an extreme liberal..that is not "uniting" that is socialism. I wil not pay taxes so others can sit on their A--. I will not stop owning guns. I will not stop speaking my mind. If you who voted for Obama you voted against all this. Shame on you.

The last 8 yeras have been the best of my life- sorry you can''t say the same, you jealous prik

[olivia4441]

January 20, 2009? If he lives that long. Come on now, one attempt on this president candidate that failed, so you actually think someone will not try again?? He is an extreme liberal..that is not "uniting" that is socialism. I wil not pay taxes so others can sit on their A--. I will not stop owning guns. I will not stop speaking my mind. If you who voted for Obama you voted against all this. Shame on you.

The last 8 years have been the best of my life- sorry you can''t say the same, you jealous prik

[assemblyofso]

THE ANTICHRIST IS ELECTED

AS JOE BIDEN HAS PREDICTED -- ARMAGEDON IN LESS THAN SIX MONTHS

[noloyalisti]

Time for the rich to start to pay for their wars for oil Time to break up the media and oil and insurance company monopolies. Time to bring common sense back to government for We the People. Obama has already reached out to the wackos who were lying about him. He is just what we need. Thank God!

[joanne600]

Break up the media? It was the media who ushered in an unvetted candidate and annointed him months ago. You might want to rethink that one.

[bizzowner]

Congratulations to all you Obama supporters for making history! You have just elected the first Non-Christian, Non-American, and Unqualified black person into office. When the economy falls into a deep recession,small businesses shut their doors and millions are unemployed. We know who to thank for all this destructin of our great Nation.
Everyone of you Obama supporters need to read the book of Revelations. You have just elected the Anti-Christ into office. I pray you will repent before Jesus raptures his church. You don''t want to have to go through the seven years of tribulations. I heard it will be hell on earth.

[noloyalisti]

The mainstream media were cheerleaders for the illegal invasion of Iraq. Because they are owned by the same fascists who own the war profiteering corporations.

The corporate media does no journalism and doesn''t report most of the illegal activities conducted by the GOP at their gulags.

[noloyalisti]

THE ANTICHRIST IS ELECTED

AS JOE BIDEN HAS PREDICTED -- ARMAGEDON IN LESS THAN SIX MONTHS

Posted by assemblyofso

***, and all this time Butch and Cheney were demonstrating they were the anti-christ. Who else would kill women and children, give welfare to the rich and destroy the economy for We the People. Jesus was a liberal you fool.