What Obama's Win Means

CBSNews.com Analysis: Inside The Numbers Of Barack Obama's Victory Are Signals About What It Could Mean In The Future

(CBS)  By CBSNews.com political analyst Samuel J. Best.

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Barack Obama’s decisive win over McCain signaled more than just the voters’ preferred candidate; it offered valuable insights about the future of American politics. An analysis of the CBS exit polls reveals six key lessons from the 2008 presidential election:

Americans Want Change: Voters are clearly weary of eight years under the Bush Administration and want the country to move in a new direction. Three quarters of Americans said the country is on the wrong track, while 72 percent of voters disapproved of the job President Bush is doing. More than a third of voters desired a candidate who will bring about needed change.

Amongst all these voters, Obama was seen as the presidential candidate most capable of bringing change. Among voters citing change as the quality that mattered most to them, 89 percent voted for Obama. In contrast, voters were split evenly over whether McCain would continue Bush’s policies or move the country in a different direction. Of the 48 percent of voters who said McCain would continue Bush’s policies, 90 percent supported Obama, compared to 8 percent who supported McCain.

It’s the Economy, Stupid: Voters think the first priority of an incoming Obama Administration is to remedy the struggling economy. Ninety-three percent of voters said the economy was not good or poor. Eighty-one percent of voters were worried that the current economic crisis would harm their family’s finances in the next year. And, more than 6 out of 10 voters named the economy as the single most important issue facing the country.

More importantly, a sizable majority of voters believed Obama is better suited to turn around the economy than McCain. Among the voters who said that the economy was the most important issue facing the country, 54 percent chose Obama, compared to 45 percent who chose McCain. Moreover, among the 47 percent of voters who think financial conditions will get better over the next year, 61 percent voted for Obama as opposed to only 38 percent who voted for McCain.

Clinton Voters Came Home: The divisive Democratic primary between Obama and Hillary Clinton did not tear the party apart. In fact, Obama’s ability to retain an overwhelming majority of Clinton supporters was a key factor in his victory over McCain. Among Democratic voters who wanted Clinton to win the Democratic nomination, 82 percent supported Obama. Moreover, among the 52 percent of voters who would have voted for Clinton in a hypothetical match-up against McCain, 83 percent voted for Obama.

Clinton’s support during the primaries came disproportionately from a coalition of Hispanics, union households, low income voters, and white women, which frequently supported her by double-digit margins. In each of these cases, Obama was able to overcome in poor showings during the primaries and secure their support on Election Day. Obama won Hispanics 66 percent to 31 percent, won union households 58 percent to 40 percent, won low income (<$50,000) voters 60 percent to 38 percent, and narrowly lost white female voters 53 percent to 46 percent - reducing the Republican advantage among white female voters by three points.

Minority Voters Are An Electoral Force: The 2008 presidential election highlighted the increasing importance of black and Hispanic voters in the electorate. In numerous battleground states, Obama was able to score decisive victories among these groups and offset McCain’s sizable advantage among white voters. As these groups continue to expand their share of the electorate, their impact should continue to grow.

Support from black voters was instrumental to his surprising victories in several swing states on the East Coast. In Virginia, Obama won the support of 92 percent of the black vote and was able to overcome McCain’s twenty-one point margin among white voters. In Pennsylvania, Obama’s 95 percent support among black voter was able to trump McCain’s 51 percent to 48 percent support from white voters.

Support from Hispanic voters keyed victories in several swing states in the sunbelt. In Nevada, Obama was able to trump McCain’s 56 percent to 42 percent advantage among white voters by winning 75 percent of the Hispanic vote. In New Mexico, Obama’s 69 percent support among Hispanics was able to offset McCain’s 56 percent to 44 percent victory among white voters. And in Florida, Obama’s fifteen point advantage among Hispanics diminished the impact of McCain’s fourteen point advantage among white voters.

New Voters Have A Distinct Democratic Outlook: This year 11 percent of the electorate were first-time voters, roughly the same number that comprised the electorate in the last election. However, first-time voters in 2008 are considerably more Democratic than their 2004 counterparts. Sixty-nine of first-time voters backed Obama, compared to 54 percent of first-time voters who supported John Kerry. More importantly for future Democratic prospects, new voters identify disproportionately with the Democratic Party. Nationwide, 46 percent of new voters describe themselves are Democrats, while 22 percent describe themselves as Republicans. This is a sizable shift from 2004 when partisanship was about evenly split among first-time voters, with 38 percent calling themselves Democrats, 34 percent calling themselves Republicans.

Money Still Matters: Obama’s decision to reject public financing and build his own campaign war chest demonstrates once again the importance of money to develop a deep and wide campaign organization. Overall, 26 percent of voters were contacted by Obama during the campaign, compared to 19 percent who were contacted by the McCain. These contacts proved critical to the outcome. Obama received 65 percent support among those voters who were contacted by his campaign, compared to only 47 percent support from those voters who were not contacted by his campaign. Conversely, McCain received 60 percent support among those voters who were contacted by his campaign, compared to only 43 percent support from those voters who were not contacted by his campaign.

The exit polls mentioned in this story were conducted by Edison/Mitofsky Research for the National Election Pool among 17,834 voters nationwide as they left the polls on November 4, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 1 percentage point for the entire sample.

Samuel J Best is an associate professor of political science at the University of Connecticut. He has published a book and several scholarly articles on American public opinion and survey research. He holds a Ph.D. from the State University of New York at Stony Brook.

[kevnkar]

zietzke,
I will address #1 on your list. There are not enough hours in the day to cover them all.


Subject: FW: Did Bush Lie?
-------Original Message-------
ers!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25546334/


Did Bush really lie? Not according to MSNBC



The last major remnant of Saddam Hussein''s nuclear program a huge stockpile
of concentrated natural uranium reached a
Canadian port Saturday to complete a secret U.S. operation that included a
two week airlift from Baghdad and a ship voyage
crossing two oceans.

See anything wrong with this picture? We have been hearing from the far-left
for more than five years how,Bush lied.
Somehow, that slogan loses its credibility now that 550 metric tons of
Saddam''s yellowcake, used for nuclear weapon
enrichment, has been discovered and shipped to Canada for its new use as
nuclear energy.

Follow the link and realize that yes Sadam was a threat to us and the world. The lunatic used WMDs on the Kurds.

[onarollagain]

Wall Street is continuing to pull out...serious investors know to take the profit now and only pay 85% cap rather than what Osama wants to increase the tax to on cap gains...the middle class has been duped and are going to get seriously hurt under this socialist.

So hold on to your hats; history was really made...the worst ever loss after a presidential election continues today....wise American investors know what he is going to do to them so they are getting out!! The facts speak for themselves....suckers!! America has been duped!!

Year Dow S&P Nasdaq President elect
2008 -5.05 -5.27 -5.53 Barack Obama
2004 +1.01 1.12 0.98 George W. Bush
2000 -0.41 -1.58 -5.39 No decision: G.W. Bush v Al Gore*
1996 1.59 1.46 1.34 William Clinton
1992 -0.91 -0.67 0.16 William Clinton
1988 -0.43 -0.66 -0.29 George H. W. Bush
1984 -0.88 -0.73 -0.32 Ronald Reagan
1980 1.70 1.77 1.49 Ronald Reagan
1976 -0.99 -1.14 -1.12 James Carter
1972 -0.11 -0.55 -0.39 Richard Nixon
1968 0.34 0.16 --- Richard Nixon
1964 -0.19 -0.05 --- Lyndon Johnson
1960 0.77 0.44 --- John Kennedy

[buckscc]

America has lost.
The people of Iraq have lost.
The world has lost.
The results will start becoming evident a year from now.
The Terrorist have won.
While the media exploit a minority winner,
this is a sad day for all true Americans.
Now it''s time to switch into a survivalist mode to
protect our finances and our lives,
for our new government we know will not.

[centerfall93]

THE ANTICHRIST IS ELECTED

AS JOE BIDEN HAS PREDICTED -- ARMAGEDON IN LESS THAN SIX MONTHS

Posted by assemblyofso

You''d think the religious wingnuts would be able to spell "armageddon". I guess literacy and education isn''t necessary for blind faith.

[vatofla]

The republican party got it''s White House eviction notice, so give up your whining McCainites.

Hey, I kept hearing McCain supporters say that they don''t call it the White house for nothing. Will they change the name to the "Black or White House" now?

[zietzke-2009]

To ALL of the RePUGs on this blog who are posting your hate filled garbage, I have the following statement:

Look at what the GOP DID TO AMERICA over the last 8 years !! ....

1) Started the Iraq war based on lies and deception.
2) Destroyed the economy
3) Illegal wire tapping of U.S. citizens
4) Shreaded the U.S. constitution
5) Patriot Act.
6) No bid contracts for Halliburton
7) $ 700 Billion USD Bail out for Wall Street
8) Massive U.S. job losses
9) Massive U.S. job outsourcing
10) Gitmo, Torture, Geneva Convention Trashed
11) Mission Accomplished ?
12) Over 4000 American troops KIA, Over 150,000 Innocent Iraq citizens killed.
13) Americas reputation around the world destroyed.
14) The cost of the Iraq war is $ 1 trillion and counting. A burden that will be passed on to our children.

The American people had had enough....Our country was on a collision course with destruction under Bush.

Bush''''s NEW WORLD ORDER WAS MAKING THE WORLD A DIVIDED AND VERY DANGEROUS PLACE. America has spoken, they want a new direction. Under the new President, the promise of a new and better life is just beginning.

[pony1225]

Basically Jesus would consider himself Republican, because they normally follow his ways, but alas they are not perfect. Definitely not Liberal (Democrat) all they do is run from him and do exactly opposite of what he has instructed, it''s all right there, in his word, written plain as day. He wouldn''t have to bomb anyone, foolish men already do that. Can the dems quit calling themselves democrats or liberals, that are derived from the words democracy and liberty, how about FOOLS! okay, okay.... do-for-yourselfers or something of that nature.

So now we have a smooth-talking, untrained pres., quite alarming!! Too bad Barack bought his way into the presidency, wonder where he got it all, definitely not from helping the poor. I''ll tell you where, from the millions of Americans who get no medical care. Maybe next time we should not have any campaigning, but totally base our vote on belief system. We could donate all those billions to fix this world!

[farouk7]

There will come a day when Jesus will put a stop to it.

Posted by pony1225 at 08:26 PM : Nov 05, 2008
______________________

Is Jesus a dem or a Republican. Who would Jesus bomb?

[farouk7]

There will come a day when Jesus will put a stop to it.

Posted by pony1225 at 08:26 PM : Nov 05, 2008
__________________________

Jesus was a community organizer, Pontius Pilate was a governor.

[farouk7]

. Whats his plan?

Posted by insite4u at 11:12 PM : Nov 05, 2008
______________________-

If you don''t know by now, you never will.

[perk235]

My favorite part of his speech was:

"......that the true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity and unyielding hope."

[pony1225]

Was that Bizzowner that mentioned about Barack not putting hand on Bible bit? I think you have the makings of our Future president!

[pony1225]

okay, okay all you need to get a grip! This election was won by Obama, because he is the face of half our nation, that is chin deep in garbage, they like the evilness they''re in and so does he. There will come a day when Jesus will put a stop to it.

[irmcvet97]

Posted by bizzowner at 04:33 PM : Nov 05, 2008

All you have to sell is FEAR! No Hope, just FEAR! At NO time in our history have we ever elected a Leader out of Fear and that turn out to be a success. Millions of American''s BELIEVE in this YOUNG Black Man. They ALSO, told their leaders as loud as it can be said that THEY want a change in Direction, TRICKLE DOWN does not, has not nor will not work!

[samthetvcat]

If it''s believed that the choice of Sarah Palin hurt McCain''s showing because she was believed to be unqualified, then can it still be said that all of the votes Barack garnered were necessarily votes FOR him and the Democrats rather than a vote against the alternative said to be not viable?

There seems to be a lack of continuity between the two concepts, the assertion that Barack won because people were voting for him while simultaneously asserting that Palin was being voted against . . . like if it was a bit of both, then isn''t the list incomplete?

[bizzowner]

Mcliar,

If Obama is the great christian. Why did he refuse to place his hand over his heart for the National Anthem? Why did he refuse to place his hand on the bible to be sworn it as Sentor? Why did he go to the same church for 20 years and learned nothing and only quit after a video of his rev. preaching about racism and hatred? Quit defending him until you have done your research on him. You think the economy is bad now. Just wait to see what Obama has instore for the hard working, small business owners and middle class families. When you are unable to put food on the table and pay your bills, because of the high taxes that you will be paying out to Obama. I wonder how you will feel about him then?

[noloyalisti]

For all you people who are wanting something for nothing. Want in one hand and S_ _ _ t in the other and see which fills up the quickest.

Posted by bizzowner

Another wrong wing wacko has spoken so eloquently. Thanks for sharing your slanted propaganda with us all.

By the way, happy Guy Faulkes Day. I am happy that we can celebrate V for victory instead of V for vendetta. We can party with the good guys who won instead of blowing up the parliament building.

[bizzowner]

Congratulations to all you Obama supporters for making history! You have jsut elected the first Non-Christian, Non-American and Unqualified black person into office. When the economy falls into a deep recessions, small businesses shut their doors and millions are unemployed. We know who to thank for all this destruction of our great Nation.
Everyone of you Obama supporters need to read the book of Revelations. You have just elected the Anti-Christ into office. I pray that you will repent before Jesus raptures his church. You don''t want to have to go through the seven years of tribulations. I heard it will be hell of earth.
For all you people who are wanting something for nothing. Want in one hand and S_ _ _ t in the other and see which fills up the quickest.

[noloyalisti]

THE ANTICHRIST IS ELECTED

AS JOE BIDEN HAS PREDICTED -- ARMAGEDON IN LESS THAN SIX MONTHS

Posted by assemblyofso

***, and all this time Butch and Cheney were demonstrating they were the anti-christ. Who else would kill women and children, give welfare to the rich and destroy the economy for We the People. Jesus was a liberal you fool.

[noloyalisti]

The mainstream media were cheerleaders for the illegal invasion of Iraq. Because they are owned by the same fascists who own the war profiteering corporations.

The corporate media does no journalism and doesn''t report most of the illegal activities conducted by the GOP at their gulags.