Ten Questions For Election Day

CBSNews.com Analysis: The Keys To Deciphering The Presidential Election

(CBS)  This analysis was written by CBSNews.com senior political editor Vaughn Ververs.

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Nearly two years after the 2008 campaign officially began, Election Day is finally here. The path from there (when John Edwards announced his candidacy in December of 2006) to here has been unpredictable at times and unprecedented in so many ways.

No matter what happens, history will be made when the voters have had their say and elect either the first black president or the first woman vice president.

Barring a repeat of 2000, the campaign will come to an end at some point late tonight or perhaps in the wee hours of Wednesday morning. The most expensive election in U.S. history will be in the books and all the thousands of TV ads as well as all those national and state polls will be rendered meaningless.

There’s not much left to be said as voters head out to vote in what both sides are predicting to be record numbers. But, plenty of questions remain to be answered as the results come in. Here are 10 questions for Election Day:

1. What Should You Watch For Today? With turnout projections extremely high, long lines and reports of problems at the polls throughout the day will be worth keeping an eye on. Weather forecasts for much of the nation show few potential trouble spots but rain could be an issue stretching from southeast Pennsylvania to parts of Virginia and North Carolina - all battleground states.

It’s not at all unlikely that long lines, particularly in urban areas, will result in some states or cities extending voting hours, which could delay results in key places. Also, large numbers of voters means more to count for overworked election officials, which could mean the results coming in slower than normal.

Exit poll or purported exit poll information could spread anywhere on the Internet but be wary of anything you see. Quarantine procedures virtually guarantee that real data does not get out until much later in the day and, even then, anything you see could easily be early and incomplete. Beware.

Jeff Greenfield has a more complete breakdown of what to keep an eye on once the polls have closed, but right off the bat, before 8:00pm Eastern, the big four targets are Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio. All are states carried by Republicans in at least the last two presidential elections and are crucial to John McCain’s hopes. If he’s doing well in those four states, it could be a long night.

2. Can Obama Win A Mandate? Democrats haven't won big mandates in presidential elections in recent history (and even Republicans have to go back a way to find their last big victory). However, Democrats' hopes have been raised by the polls leading up to the election that this could be a defining year, both nationally and in the Electoral College.

So, what would a mandate look like? Compared to the last four elections, it wouldn’t take much to win a big one. Bill Clinton won a whopping 370 Electoral Votes in 1992 but only managed a popular vote plurality of 43 percent, thanks to Ross Perot’s nearly 19 percent grab in that election as a third-party candidate. Clinton bettered his haul in 1996, winning 379 Electoral Votes, but still fell just short of a majority in the popular vote. Nobody needs to be reminded about the narrow split decision in 2000 and in 2004, George W. Bush just barely managed a majority in both.

A convincing popular vote victory appears within reach for Obama. With big turnout by black and young voters, Obama could run up his vote in states he’s unlikely to win - like Mississippi, Alabama and Arkansas - and in states he should win easily, like California and New York. A big Electoral College win is a bit trickier but not out of the question. Should states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida all tilt Democratic this year, it probably means he’s also winning Virginia and Colorado - perhaps even North Carolina and Indiana.

Fifty-three percent or higher in the popular vote combined with 338 or more Electoral Votes wouldn’t be a 49-state, 59 percent Reagan sweep, but a mandate nonetheless.

3. Can McCain Pull Off A Shocker? Don’t think this isn’t a real possibility. The odds are long, no doubt about it, but it’s not out of the question. So much has been made about this campaign taking place on largely Republican territory that it’s often forgotten that it is just that - Republican territory.

George Bush didn’t win two presidential elections by pure luck - he did it with very reliable get-out-the vote machines in many of these same states. For all the hype and attention given to Obama’s organization, Republicans have flown under the radar screen. But senior party officials say they are revving it up to the hilt and remain confident that there is at least a path to 270. If McCain can take places like Ohio and Virginia, that probably means teetering states like Indiana and Missouri can be held as well.

While Obama has made real inroads in the west, Pennsylvania could be this year’s Ohio or Florida from past elections. It’s an inside straight to be sure, but the cards left in the deck give them a shot.

4. What Does Massive Turnout Mean? Both sides in this election (and isn’t it telling that third party candidates have all but disappeared on all levels this year?) are predicting record turnout - at least in terms of raw numbers, if not percentage. There could be as many as 130 million Americans casting votes.

Conventional wisdom holds that increased turnout will benefit Obama in a big way. That might well be true. But even if larger numbers of black and young voters turn out to vote, their totals as a percentage won’t have the same impact if Republicans increase their share of the pie as well. Keep this in mind when you begin to hear about large turnout tomorrow: In 2004, Democrats not only far exceeded their turnout in Ohio, John Kerry received more votes than any other presidential candidate of his party, ever. But he lost, because Republicans did the same. Huge turnout could be a wash but probably benefits Obama, at least in the popular vote.

5. Can New Hampshire Happen Again? Remember the New Hampshire primary? Most polls had Obama cruising to a big win, some by as many as ten points. It was supposed to be the finishing blow to Hillary Clinton, who was staggering after a third-place finish in Iowa. But Clinton came back to win and take Obama all the way to the very end of the primary season.

Another bothersome signal for Obama is that he sometimes over-performed in exit polling during the primary season, getting much less of the actual vote than projected. There’s no way to tell whether many of these polls heading into the election are right or wrong until after the votes come in, but keep an eye out in those states where Obama remains in the lead, yet under 50 percent. If his support is being exaggerated, those are the first places you’ll see it.

[beckypike]

Obama won in large part because of money, the media and the market. If McCain had broken a promise to accept public financing then accepted millions in donations, many from foreigners in $200 increments on pre-paid credit cards...well, we''d be hearing that McCain bought the election. Ugh. I guess most media outlets couldn''t be bothered with the fact that he was a lawyer for ACORN and fought to give sub-prime loans out. He was just such a genius during the market melt down because he stayed out of the fray. I guess Sarah Palin''s shoes were more important to cover.

Oh, well. God bless America.

[beckypike]

While all cpountries fudge with their unemployment rates, there is a school of thought that the US is the most egregious in understating our unemployment. even with that, most accounts rank anywhere between 40 and 50 other countries as having lower unemployment, including systems as diverse as the United Kingdom, Cuba, south AND north korea, Switzerland, etc.

______________

What did I misquote? Or did I just misunderstand? Aren''t you saying here that the US has higher unemployment than Cuba, North Korea and South Korea? Whatever.

[work4justice]

Becky, you were doing so good before you started misquoting to make things misleading.

You have no reason to attack me--I am not trying to fight you or anyone else, which I thought I made plenty clear.

Another suggested that you have been refreshing to have a conversation with here because you are sane, and I agree. But once you start using misread or misquoted words to mislead, I have no use for your posts and will just ignore them. It is the same as lying. And before you throw rhetoric at me about the candidates doing the same, you''re absolutely right--as soon as they use each other words out of context or incorrectly in a misleading or slanderous way, I can''t trust just about anything else they have to say. And they''ve both done it, and so have you.

So have a good time debating yourself, because you won''t find anyone thoughtful to give you the time of day.

[work4justice]

JJ, electoral votes are confusing, outdated, and difficult to understand. It''s an old system in need of reform. America has been reminded of this, i.e. in 2000 when Al Gore won the popular vote and George Bush won the Electoral College. In 04, the popular vote was close and this year, again, it appears 1 am, it is a slim margin.

The Electoral College is based on each state''s congressional districts, related to its population. It''s a winner-take-all system and maybe not a good way to elect a president. Some states can be generally "counted on" to go one way or another, and others carry a lot of electors and canNOT be counted on. That is why you saw such heavy campaigning in PA, because by some estimates McCain needed PA in his count in order to build a win (270).

It is difficult to understand why it is still in place, but it hasn''t been changed; you might have to ask the question of a Constitutional lawyer. A few states allow an elector split. Some believe that no matter WHO is in congress or WHO is president, this is a system that needs change. People do not like change. Even though the 2000 election and its results were crazy, the electoral college remains. Maybe finally both sides will decide it is time to do away with a system that was founded when only a very limited group of Americans could vote. JJ, the time to learn more about it is BEFORE the next presidential election, so you are prepared, and if you are angry, so you can do something about it in the meantime.

[jjcmford]

Could someone explain to me how the electoral votes are decided? I always though it was the popular vote that won an election.
And, shouldn%u2019t the electoral votes reflect the popular vote, especially in a case like this election, shouldn%u2019t the votes be split according to the actual popular vote, since the vote is supposed to be reflecting what %u201Cthe people%u201D want, not the politicians.
Oh, one last thought too, whatever happened to the fact that it supposed to be a %u201Csecret%u201D ballot when we vote and yet they barrage you with polls and such to find out what you will vote, not so secret is it.
Concerned and confused,
Widowed 45yo stay at home father
western, Pa

[kam88203]

[[Obama''''s birth certificate has indeed been verified. From kitv.com]]:

Oh, I feel so reproved if a tv station has verified BOs birth certificate and the dems in Hawaii SAY the messiah was born there. His African grandmother and relatives who have never been out of Africa all say they were there when he was born. BO is the first person to run for president who has not submitted his "original copy" for electorate information. But he is "god" of course. How dare us peons ask for his credentials! I still have not seen a LEGAL

[charlottecli]

I predict reverse Bradley effect this year. Obama will win a landslide.

Many identifiable minorities (e.g. people with last names of near east, middle east, far east origin) may have wanted to be perceived as sophisticated, thoughtful and race-neutral and they may openly declare themselves McCain voters or undecided but actually vote for Obama.

[beckypike]

Stratmaster2, now we have tremendous unemployment because of how we report it? I''m sorry...I just don''t buy it. Tell me, why do immigrants flock to the USA? Why are they leaving Cuba? Truly do you believe that Cuba and North Korea have lower unemployment than the United States? Why aren''t unemployed Americans getting on boats to Cuba? It is similar to the "most elderly people were eating dog food in closets prior to social security" comment made earlier. I''m not sure where you''re learning this stuff...

[libra127]

Give it up, kam. Obama''s birth certificate has indeed been verified. From kitv.com:

"DOH Director Dr. Chiyome ****** said...
she and the registrar of vital statistics, Alvin Onaka, have personally verified that the health department holds Obama''s original birth certificate.

"Therefore, I as Director of Health for the State of Hawai%u2018i, along with the Registrar of Vital Statistics who has statutory authority to oversee and maintain these type of vital records, have personally seen and verified that the Hawai%u2018i State Department of Health has Sen. Obama%u2019s original birth certificate on record in accordance with state policies and procedures," ****** said. "

[kam88203]

[[XRepublican_ at 03:54 PM : Nov 04, 2008 wrote:
I''''d like to know where you were born! Mars? This is a non-issue. His birth certificate is available on the internet for all to see. Please, get a life. Your stupidity is frankly embarrassing.]]

Your brilliance is blindingly stupid. I''ve seen and worked with millions of birth certificates. I went to BOs "real online birth certificate." He couldn''t even get a drivers license with it. NO SIGNATURES OF ANYONE ARE ON IT...no signature of his mother/father/doctor/administration...nothing! No baby footprints...nothing! His father is listed as African which was not a term used in 1961, only two terms were used at that time...negro or colored. The fake BO birth certificate form is more modern than an Hawaiian 1962 genuine (with all signatures in place) certificate my friend has. But my friend WAS REALLY born there.

BO will be the first criminal/illegal American president. But when has his associations with criminals been anything but normal for him. Does he have any real friends who aren''t crooks or anarchist? Let''s take a page from the dems behavior for the last 8 years and begin impeachment procedings tomorrow. IMPEACH BHO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[oldbones82]

This has to be the most civil, intelligent, and respectful online discussion I''ve ever read.

[pvperson]

"John McCain nor the RNC have openly challenged Obama''''s citizenship"

that''s because they realize how STUPID and childish they would appear and don''t forget McCain was born in Panama.

[pvperson]

Lieberman is a republican, he votes with them when it counts and openly voices approval of the GOP. He should be stripped of any democrat affiliation. I know that the democrats want to keep his occasional support, but if you can''t count on him, then dump him.

[lal121]

For those who keep asking...

Obama was born at the Kapi''olani Medical Center for Women & Children in Honolulu, Hawaii...his father was from Kenya that is why his grandmother was living there.

[tcoleman12]

I can narrow this down largely to two primary questions:

1) How can the Media abandoned journalism in this election to back a certain candidate exclusively?

2) How many Americans will have "Buyer''s Remorse" once this guy and his 9% approval rating congress take over Washington?

[lal121]

For those who keep asking...

Obama was born at the Kapi''olani Medical Center for Women & Children in Honolulu, Hawaii...his father was from Kenya that is why his grandmother was living there.

[sincity_q]

Ten Questions For Election Day

1. Since the MSM parroted, sang, bowed and otherwise worked like heck for Obama, do we have to pretend there is any objectivity in the press anymore?

2. Do the Obama faithful follow a politician, a messiah or a false savior?

3. Since CBS geared all their political polls to favor Obama, do they expect favors in return?

4. Has John McCain... the other guy we never heard about except in a negative sense, ever done anything in the past... aside from serve his country in Vietnam, that would make an Obama supporter say something nice about him?

5. If Obama wins, will all Vietnamm era politicians be shipped off to a dogfood factory?

6. If McCain wins, will there really be riots? Isn''t that a little immature and more than a bit like the behavior we expect from banana republics?

7. If nine out of every ten voters agree that the $700 billion bailout was a ripoff... and since both McCain AND Obama voted for it, how can we elect either of them?

8. Will Barrack Obama ever clear the air regarding his birth certificate and Larry Sinclair?

9. If elected, will Mr. Obama keep his promise and feed the masses from a single fish?

10. If elected, will Mr. McCain keep a promise to bring home all the boys still being held captive in Atlanta?

[xrepublican_]

I STILL LIKE TO KNOW where OBAMA was borm!!
Could someone tell us!!!!
Posted by alsdailynews at 10:39

I''d like to know where you were born! Mars? This is a non-issue. His birth certificate is available on the internet for all to see. Please, get a life. Your stupidity is frankly embarrassing.

[olderthnadam]

The fact that neither John McCain nor the RNC have openly challenged Obama''s citizenship in the debates, MSM, or the courts proves to me that this rumour is not true but just another example of the Politics of Fear/Smear tactics using internet rumours as a way of scaring the voting public. Thoes of you who believe this BS must really want to believe or are hanging on every word of Rush and Sean which truly does make you look like sheep. They are just exploiting you and your beliefs for personal recognition and personal gain, sort of the Jim "PTL" Bakers of the political world. But just like Baker''s followers you believe every bit of BS they feed you.

[lordknowus]

All the people who think a 3% increase in taxes on corporations will cause them to lay people off not only are clueless about how taxes are filed but they also do not understand how a business makes money. Employee wages are tax deductible and lower the overall profit of the company, meaning that the company has an incentive to hire people so they can post less profits come tax time. Add into this fact the reality that you need to make things to produce sales and profits, and that you need to hire people to make things, and you will understand what I am talking about. Sure you can lower your costs by firing employees, but you also stand to make less money because you have lowered your productivity by firing people.