Ten Questions For Election Day
CBSNews.com Analysis: The Keys To Deciphering The Presidential Election
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Nearly two years after the 2008 campaign officially began, Election Day is finally here. The path from there (when John Edwards announced his candidacy in December of 2006) to here has been unpredictable at times and unprecedented in so many ways.
No matter what happens, history will be made when the voters have had their say and elect either the first black president or the first woman vice president.
Barring a repeat of 2000, the campaign will come to an end at some point late tonight or perhaps in the wee hours of Wednesday morning. The most expensive election in U.S. history will be in the books and all the thousands of TV ads as well as all those national and state polls will be rendered meaningless.
There’s not much left to be said as voters head out to vote in what both sides are predicting to be record numbers. But, plenty of questions remain to be answered as the results come in. Here are 10 questions for Election Day:
1. What Should You Watch For Today? With turnout projections extremely high, long lines and reports of problems at the polls throughout the day will be worth keeping an eye on. Weather forecasts for much of the nation show few potential trouble spots but rain could be an issue stretching from southeast Pennsylvania to parts of Virginia and North Carolina - all battleground states.
It’s not at all unlikely that long lines, particularly in urban areas, will result in some states or cities extending voting hours, which could delay results in key places. Also, large numbers of voters means more to count for overworked election officials, which could mean the results coming in slower than normal.
Exit poll or purported exit poll information could spread anywhere on the Internet but be wary of anything you see. Quarantine procedures virtually guarantee that real data does not get out until much later in the day and, even then, anything you see could easily be early and incomplete. Beware.
Jeff Greenfield has a more complete breakdown of what to keep an eye on once the polls have closed, but right off the bat, before 8:00pm Eastern, the big four targets are Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio. All are states carried by Republicans in at least the last two presidential elections and are crucial to John McCain’s hopes. If he’s doing well in those four states, it could be a long night.
2. Can Obama Win A Mandate? Democrats haven't won big mandates in presidential elections in recent history (and even Republicans have to go back a way to find their last big victory). However, Democrats' hopes have been raised by the polls leading up to the election that this could be a defining year, both nationally and in the Electoral College.
So, what would a mandate look like? Compared to the last four elections, it wouldn’t take much to win a big one. Bill Clinton won a whopping 370 Electoral Votes in 1992 but only managed a popular vote plurality of 43 percent, thanks to Ross Perot’s nearly 19 percent grab in that election as a third-party candidate. Clinton bettered his haul in 1996, winning 379 Electoral Votes, but still fell just short of a majority in the popular vote. Nobody needs to be reminded about the narrow split decision in 2000 and in 2004, George W. Bush just barely managed a majority in both.
A convincing popular vote victory appears within reach for Obama. With big turnout by black and young voters, Obama could run up his vote in states he’s unlikely to win - like Mississippi, Alabama and Arkansas - and in states he should win easily, like California and New York. A big Electoral College win is a bit trickier but not out of the question. Should states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida all tilt Democratic this year, it probably means he’s also winning Virginia and Colorado - perhaps even North Carolina and Indiana.
Fifty-three percent or higher in the popular vote combined with 338 or more Electoral Votes wouldn’t be a 49-state, 59 percent Reagan sweep, but a mandate nonetheless.
3. Can McCain Pull Off A Shocker? Don’t think this isn’t a real possibility. The odds are long, no doubt about it, but it’s not out of the question. So much has been made about this campaign taking place on largely Republican territory that it’s often forgotten that it is just that - Republican territory.
George Bush didn’t win two presidential elections by pure luck - he did it with very reliable get-out-the vote machines in many of these same states. For all the hype and attention given to Obama’s organization, Republicans have flown under the radar screen. But senior party officials say they are revving it up to the hilt and remain confident that there is at least a path to 270. If McCain can take places like Ohio and Virginia, that probably means teetering states like Indiana and Missouri can be held as well.
While Obama has made real inroads in the west, Pennsylvania could be this year’s Ohio or Florida from past elections. It’s an inside straight to be sure, but the cards left in the deck give them a shot.
4. What Does Massive Turnout Mean? Both sides in this election (and isn’t it telling that third party candidates have all but disappeared on all levels this year?) are predicting record turnout - at least in terms of raw numbers, if not percentage. There could be as many as 130 million Americans casting votes.
Conventional wisdom holds that increased turnout will benefit Obama in a big way. That might well be true. But even if larger numbers of black and young voters turn out to vote, their totals as a percentage won’t have the same impact if Republicans increase their share of the pie as well. Keep this in mind when you begin to hear about large turnout tomorrow: In 2004, Democrats not only far exceeded their turnout in Ohio, John Kerry received more votes than any other presidential candidate of his party, ever. But he lost, because Republicans did the same. Huge turnout could be a wash but probably benefits Obama, at least in the popular vote.
5. Can New Hampshire Happen Again? Remember the New Hampshire primary? Most polls had Obama cruising to a big win, some by as many as ten points. It was supposed to be the finishing blow to Hillary Clinton, who was staggering after a third-place finish in Iowa. But Clinton came back to win and take Obama all the way to the very end of the primary season.
Another bothersome signal for Obama is that he sometimes over-performed in exit polling during the primary season, getting much less of the actual vote than projected. There’s no way to tell whether many of these polls heading into the election are right or wrong until after the votes come in, but keep an eye out in those states where Obama remains in the lead, yet under 50 percent. If his support is being exaggerated, those are the first places you’ll see it.
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See all 168 CommentsBill Frist
Randy "Duke" Cunningham
Jack Abramoff
Tom DeLay
Mark Foley
Larry Craig
Ted Haggard
Bob Ney
Trent Lott
Ted Stevens
Alberto Gonzales
Donald Rumsfled
Karl Rove
Scooter Libby
*** Cheney
George Bush
Lying about reasons for going to war with Iraq (Uranium,
false claims about Iraq''s supposed weapons of mass destruction.)
Torture in Abu Ghraib.
The treasonous exposure of a CIA agent by White House officials.(Plamegate)
Letting Osama Bin Laden escape from Tora Bora
Halliburton%u2019s overcharging and outright fraud for services in Iraq
Lack of body armor for troops
Enron
Katrina
Illegal wiretapping
Political influence peddling
S.e.x scandals
Troopergate
Travel fraud
Election tampering
Ballooning federal debt
Economy in a tailspin
And these are just for starters%u2026
Enough is enough, America is ready for change!
So I''m voting Democrat. Straight up and down.
The last 8 years of the Bush Administration was the WORST in Americn history....No doubt about it....
"WE THE PEOPLE" HAVE SPOKEN....NO MORE !!
NOW, GO AND VOTE !! Lets take our country back.
------
Posted by anon00
You mean to say there are people in america who can think? Now I KNOW you are having a laugh ! Good one anon00, good one.
Barack Obama
2. How fast will Levi break the engagement?
3. (This on''s for Sarah) How can I self exonerate my parking tickets?
4. Will Alaska take the Palins back? (please)
5. What will happen to the wardrobe to nowhere?
6. Does McCorpse think he would have won if he had kept his appointment with Letterman?
7. Will Cindy dump Geriatric Johnny?
8. What will Todd do with those redskins season tickets?
9. When will Obama start the war crimes trials for Shurb and company?
10. Can we finally change the name of the white house?
Posted by shanev137 at 06:24 AM
That''s just because his makeup budget is gone, you''re seeing the real McCorpse....
State / Town Country? News ask no answer
Obama all the way. Africa will like this.
2.What Candidate Said He will Bankrupt our Coal Indusry?
3.What Candidate said electric rates will skyrocket?
4. What Candidate went to a Racist, anti-american church for 20 years?
5. What Candidate promises change but his actions dont?
6.What Candidate has more terroristic friends than Arafat himself?
7.What Candidate studied law so well that he will destroy the constitution to fullfill the ideology of his long standing radical friends?
8.What Candidate will get HAMAS dancing in the streets?
9.What Candidate Economic Policy of 95% will get tax breaks is Just Pure BS?
10. What Candidate will bring AMerica to A socialist state similar to Cuba?
Grow up will ya?
Re-distribution of wealth has been going on in this country under every adminitstration and under every party:
Social Security - workers pay in one amount, then retire and draw amounts WAY IN EXCESS of what they ever paid in (which is why the system is going
broke).
Graduated Income Tax - different earning levels pay different percentages in taxes.
Tax Deductions - If you''re "wealthy" enough to own a home, you get to deduct your mortgage interest from your taxable income; meanwhile.... if you don''t earn quite enough to ever be able to save and buy a home, you''re just stuck with paying taxes on your full earnings.
Child Tax Credit - every child/dependent you have merits you a $3,000 credit whether you earned $25,000 or $75,000
On and on and on it goes. Every person in this country is a recipient of some version or other of government redistribution of wealth!!!..
What do you call the economic stimulus checks that were sent out earlier this year? I bet you didn%u2019t turn that down did you? I suppose it%u2019s different when it benefits you?
Hypocrite.
Hey weirdo. What about the people that didn''t get the check. You know, those of us that worked hard all year, paid taxes, but earned more than the maximum.
What? You at a loss for words?
Posted by SocialismSux at 07:25 AM
Just don''t ask him about his IRS investigation....
Posted by MaryKaye23 at 07:10 AM :
Spread the wealth is the same thing as trickle down, just with the spigot turned on....
Thanks for the excellent post. It''s refreshing to see I''m not the only one that understands that Redistribution of Wealth is not a new concept.
2.What Candidate Said He will Bankrupt our Coal Indusry?
3.What Candidate said electric rates will skyrocket?
4. What Candidate went to a Racist, anti-american church for 20 years?
5. What Candidate promises change but his actions dont?
6.What Candidate has more terroristic friends than Arafat himself?
7.What Candidate studied law so well that he will destroy the constitution to fullfill the ideology of his long standing radical friends?
8.What Candidate will get HAMAS dancing in the streets?
9.What Candidate Economic Policy of 95% will get tax breaks is Just Pure BS?
10. What Candidate will bring AMerica to A socialist state similar to Cuba?
He himself even said that under HIS CAP AND TRADE program that Electricity bills in America will SKYROCKET. He''''s also said he will bankrupt the coal industry. Wonder how many other industries he plans on bankrupting.
Over
SOMEONE WHO WANTS TO GROW THE ECONOMY!!
Posted by kevinkkloste at 08:14 AM : Nov 04, 2008"
Check the expiry date on the other one.
Like these guys better ?
"The fires of hell are frozen glaciers compared to my hatred for the American government", "and I won''t be buried under their d*a*m*n flag."
"I''m an Alaskan, not an American. I''ve got no use for America or her damned institutions."
Jo Vogel, Founder of AIP
Sarah Palin addressed the Alaskan Independence Party Convention a little over 6 months ago, happily telling its attendees that she shared its "vision of upholding the Constitution of our great state", curiously not mentioning the Constitution of the United States. She encouraged AIP to "keep up the good work".
Now, what does the 14th Amendment say ?
(...) No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or GIVEN AID OR COMFORT TO THE ENEMIES THEREOF. (...)
They''''ll all be celebrating in the streets, just like they were on 9-11-01 when the twin towers went down.
Posted by SocialismSux at 07:23 AM : Nov 04, 2008"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/johnmccain/3238578/John-McCain-endorsed-by-al-Qaeda-supporters.html
John McCain ''endorsed by al-Qaeda supporters''
Supporters of al-Qaeda have said they would prefer Republican candidate John McCain to win the US election because he is more likely to continue the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Obama, what makes us think you are going to govern in the center? Twenty years in a radical church. 10 years working with Bill Ayers, a known terrorist. Voting record as Liberal as they come. Voted 90+ times to raise taxes. Obama , how do we know you will keep your promises. You wont. And the people of America will be dupped by your promise of change.
Now all Americans, Democrats and Republicans alike will embrace CHANGE. We will finally change the country for the better come out of the darkness.
Super-rich (Hollywood movie stars, George Soros, Franklin Raines etc.)
Super-stupid (the masses who get their "news" from
CNN/ABC/NBC/CBS)
Super-racist (the blacks and whites who will vote
for him because he''s black)
%u2014From a Republican
LOL
"Super-racist (the blacks and whites who will vote
for him because he''''s black)
Posted by Olivia4441 at 08:41 AM : Nov 04, 2008"
The whites who vote for Obama are "super-racist" ?
That''s the only explanation you found to explain why Obama will get plenty of white votes ?
I see a simpler reason : they just vote for the competent candidate, regardless of race.
so how''''s it feel to think just like Al Queda?
Posted by SocialismSux at 08:56 AM : Nov 04, 2008"
Read again. They are happy to see us there : no trip overseas needed anymore. Moreover, there were no Al-Qaeda in Iraq BEFORE the invasion ...
Posted by SocialismSux at 08:56 AM : Nov 04, 2008
BTW, still looking for WMDs ?
That''''s the only explanation you found to explain why Obama will get plenty of white votes ?
I see a simpler reason : they just vote for the competent candidate, regardless of race.
Wrong that would be the ones who are married to blacks.
Bill Frist
Randy "Duke" Cunningham
Jack Abramoff
Tom DeLay
Mark Foley
Larry Craig
Ted Haggard
Bob Ney
Trent Lott
Ted Stevens
Alberto Gonzales
Donald Rumsfled
Karl Rove
Scooter Libby
*** Cheney
George Bush
Lying about reasons for going to war with Iraq (Uranium,
false claims about Iraq''''s supposed weapons of mass destruction.)
Torture in Abu Ghraib.
The treasonous exposure of a CIA agent by White House officials.(Plamegate)
Letting Osama Bin Laden escape from Tora Bora
Halliburton%u2019s overcharging and outright fraud for services in Iraq
Lack of body armor for troops
Enron
Katrina
Illegal wiretapping
Political influence peddling
S.e.x scandals
Troopergate
Travel fraud
Election tampering
Ballooning federal debt
Economy in a tailspin
And these are just for starters%u2026
Enough is enough, America is ready for change!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted by newsthought1
Nice Post!!!
The Bush years have produced so much CRAPP it becomes a brown blur after a while.
Joe the Plumber gets warning, not speeding ticket
13 hours ago
TOLEDO, Ohio (AP) %u2014 Police stopped "Joe the Plumber" for speeding last week but didn''t issue a ticket out of concern it would reflect negatively on the Toledo department, an officer''s report said.
Officers tracked Samuel J. Wurzelbacher driving about 50 mph in a 35 mph zone in his Dodge Durango SUV on Wednesday, the police report said.
In the final presidential debate, Republican John McCain portrayed Wurzelbacher as emblematic of people with concerns about Democrat Barack Obama''s tax plans. Wurzelbacher has since endorsed McCain. His instant fame set off a rush of interest in the plumber''s background.
Toledo''s police chief said on Tuesday %u2014 the day before the traffic stop %u2014 that a department clerk faces a disciplinary hearing for allegedly looking up Wurzelbacher''s address on a state computer database.
Wurzelbacher was given a verbal warning because of that ongoing investigation and because a citation could have "negative repercussions to the department and city as a whole," according to the report, which lists "Patrolman Bailey" as its author.
Wurzelbacher would not comment on the traffic stop when reached by telephone Monday evening.
Posted by jydavis1
Good question...I don''''t know.
I hope not
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Posted by jh6379again
I know they finally booted that nasty little cabal in Department of Defense out, but I fear they have installed a lot of their ''guys'' in non-political appointee slots and it will take a while to drive them out. I thinhk they''ll go on their own once the Asst. Secretaries are installed so long as the new political appointees really dig into what''s going on.
Mccain, Bush, and the rest of the GOP-
Managed to take Clinton''s surplus,
And 8 years later they replaced it with:
Bigger Gov''t --
Though they promised Smaller Govt-
Greater Debt-
Though they promised fiscal responsibility-
The largest Trade Deficit in history-
Outsourcing millions of US jobs
Then they Pulled a Commie Chavez move
Nationalizing Fannie and Freddie
The Socialization of our Financial Institutions-
With Billions in tax payer paid bailouts-
Institutional Welfare for Wall Street Incompetents-
War in Iraq and Afghanistan
Costing us 10 Billion + a month
Ridicule throughout the world--
But they did give Tax breaks and incentives to:
The upper 3% -
To Big Oil,
And the GOP Defense Conglomerates--
The Choice is Astonishingly Clear---
VOTE GOP
VOTE MCSAME
CONTINUE THE BUSH LEGACY
FOUR MORE GLORIOUS YEARS
OF GOP BS
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Posted by paidGOPshill
Evangelicals have been "pulling the lever" for Sarah Palin for two months now.
(Yeah, it''s a chep shot, but it was such a great set up I just couldn''t let it go!)
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