Poll: McCain Gains, But Obama Well Ahead

CBS News Survey Finds Democrat With Nine Point Advantage Among Likely Voters Nationwide On Eve Of Election Day

(CBS)  On the eve of Election Day in what has effectively been the longest and most expensive presidential campaign in U.S. history, Republican nominee John McCain has gained some ground on Democratic rival Barack Obama, a new CBS News tracking poll finds.

But going into Tuesday's voting, Obama maintains a comfortable, nine-point advantage among likely voters, with a smaller percentage - just five percent - remaining undecided.

The Democratic ticket of Obama and Joe Biden now leads the Republican ticket of McCain and Sarah Palin 51 percent to 42 percent among likely voters nationwide, including those who lean towards one of the candidates. That's a narrowing of four points in McCain's deficit from what CBS News polling showed on Saturday and Sunday, when the Democratic ticket was shown to have a 13-point lead.

Less than 1 in 10 of each candidate's supporters say they might still change their mind.

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Read The Complete Poll

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Overall, nine percent of likely voters say they are uncommitted - either undecided or open to changing their mind. In a CBS News/New York Times poll conducted just before the 2004 election, about 10 percent of voters said they were uncommitted. At the same time in 2000, 16 percent were uncommitted.

This campaign's uncommitted voters are mostly white, and the majority is 45 or older. Nearly half describe themselves as politically moderate and 43 percent are independent. Almost 40 percent live in the South. There are slightly more Democrats (30 percent) than Republicans (20 percent) among the group.

Nearly one in four registered voters say they have already voted absentee or at an early voting location.

The Palin And Bush Factors:

There is evidence that Palin’s presence on the Republican ticket has hurt McCain with some voters. Fourteen percent of Obama's supporters say they once supported McCain, and the top reason given for their switch was McCain's selection of Palin as his running mate.

While views of Palin have improved somewhat since last week, she continues fare worse than Biden when it comes to favorability. Today, 37 percent of registered voters have a favorable view of the Alaska governor, while the same percentage have an unfavorable view. Biden is viewed favorably by 43 percent and unfavorably by 21 percent.

McCain has not been helped by his association with President Bush, the poll suggests. Fifty-four percent of voters think McCain would continue Mr. Bush's policies, and the president is extremely unpopular: his approval rating now stands at 20 percent, the lowest ever recorded for a president. His disapproval rating of 72 percent matches his all-time high, first reached last month.

Views Of The Candidates:

Obama’s voters continue to be much more enthusiastic about their candidate than McCain’s voters are about theirs. Sixty-nine percent of Obama voters are enthusiastic about the Democratic nominee, while just 44 percent of McCain voters are enthusiastic about their candidate.

A majority of McCain voters - 56 percent - are "scared" of the prospect of an Obama presidency, while 45 percent of Obama voters are scared of a McCain presidency.

While 64 percent of registered voters say Obama understands their needs and problems, just 48 percent say McCain understands, a 16 point difference. McCain is more widely seen as prepared to be president, with 65 percent saying he is prepared for the job. But while McCain beats Obama by 12 points on the question, a majority - 53 percent - see Obama as prepared.

Obama's favorable rating stands at 50 percent while his unfavorable rating at 35 percent. Voters are essentially evenly split on McCain, who has a 43 percent favorable rating and a 42 percent unfavorable rating.

The number of voters who think Obama's policies will help the economy is down since Saturday, but he is still the clear winner on this issue. Forty-five percent of registered voters think Obama's policies will make the economy better, a drop of six points from two days ago. But only 30 percent now think McCain's policies will help.

Meanwhile, 48 percent believe McCain will raise their taxes, while 46 percent believe Obama will do so.

The race is essentially tied among men. Obama holds a large lead among women (55 percent to 41 percent) and moderates (60 percent to 33 percent). He has a slight lead among independents (46 percent to 43 percent). McCain holds a small lead among whites overall (49 percent to 46 percent), while the race is about even among white women.

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This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1051 adults nationwide, including 952 registered voters, interviewed by telephone October 31-November 2, 2008. Phone numbers were dialed from RDD samples of both standard land-lines and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample and the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher.

[earthlived]

OBAMA = MARXISM

[ldvuong]

Is it a silent issue, abortion, free abrtion, even paid for by taxpayers'' money? Obama is for killing babies, even if they survive abortions, and are born alive. He is killing them all. He said he would not "punish" his daughters with children, but what if his mother decided to abort him, then there wouldn''t be a presidential candiate called Barack Obama today. Obama is for killing more and more black babies, because black women are the majority of those who have abortion. He is claiming to be a Christian, and proud of it, yet he does not understand when life of a baby begins in its mother''s womb, as it is "above his pay grade?"

[earthlived]

A vote for McCain is a vote for America.

A vote for Obama is a vote for Hugo Chavez (who has endorsed Obama), Ahmadinejad, Khadafy, Hezbollah (who had also endorsed Obama), Hamas, Osama bin Laden, Al Qaeda, and other enemies of America.

[leighg1]

McCain''''s presidency would guarantee a new war in the making! He is more interested in WAR than anything else. He has no interests, no vigor, and no intelligence, no understanding... to deal with everyday economy of ordinary folks.

[gangesdak]

Man at the bottom fifth of his class wants to talk about his knowledge to a top flight Harvard graduate success. Audacity all right!

[ejfost]

I was undecided until this morning.. this really put me to vote for Obama. Please go out and vote for the man who will lead our country instead of cleaning up after his running mate.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4aHL12vtEM you can read the transcript.

[dredigga]

A vote for McCain is a vote for America.

A vote for Obama is a vote for Hugo Chavez (who has endorsed Obama), Ahmadinejad, Khadafy, Hezbollah (who had also endorsed Obama), Hamas, Osama bin Laden, Al Qaeda, and other enemies of America.

Posted by EarthLived

This is ridiculous. Who cares that these folks you named above wants Obama to win, they do not get to cast a vote. But on the other hand, the KKK and other racist groups want McCain to win, and they do get a vote. So stop being silly and desperate!

[redhawk1021]

Boy, the little rightwing nuts are really is a panic!

These Obama smears haven''t worked the whole campaign. What makes you think they''re going to work in the last 24 hours, you thickheaded morons?

[georgiadog8]

Smears,Lies, Gimmicks and Fear = McSame
If you have no brain you''ll vote McCain
McCain is a free trader and does not have your interests in mind. He will trade the constitution for WTO rules. The good jobs will be replaced by low paying service jobs. The illegals will come back in force to make sure the jobs stay low paying w/o benefits. Remember Juan McAmnesty and Ted Kennedy??? Die hards

[max0010]

http://miami.craigslist.org/mdc/com/902521456.html

If the truth be known.

[antoniof123]

In 2006 before the election we the swing voters told the Republicans to moderate if they did not we would moderate them. They lost in 2006 and were put back in the minority.

Then we told them to moderate again and if they did not we swing voters would do more damage to their party. They went through 2007 and 2008 thinking that 2006 was a fluke. I wonder if they are still thinking that.

If after this election they still refuse to moderate, I don''t not see a pretty picture in 2010, in fact it could mean the true super minority for the Republican party.

If they want it that way all they have to do is continue to act as though they are the masters instead of the majority of Americans. Remember we are a people who vote for our leaders not the other way around.

If you don''t listen then you will go the way of the wigs and welcome to one party America.

[brucie2006]

Al Qaeda is supporting McCain...they want the same failed foreign policies...6 years in Iraq..no WMDs, no egress plans, but Halliburton made a profit from the taxpayers =

[specialty8]

A vote for Obama is saying you support Bill Ayers veiws and Rev. Wrights.Ayers did not have a fund raiser for Obama in his own home because he is a good hearted guy. There are only two reason for him to do this and only two reasons why Obama would attend such a thing.They are either good freinds or they support each others veiws.Nothing else makes any sense.

[dredigga]

If CBS thinks Obama is ahead, then what''''s the need to actually vote? And if McCain wins, then according to CBS, Republicans will have "stolen the vote".

Posted by DeckardBR

It is not just CBS that does early polling. Most of the networks do and most of their polls show a significant lead for Obama. Are you going to criticize them too because the polling doesn''t have McCain in the lead? And the only way your guy wins is that it will have to be stolen...And it is not beyond the Rethugs to steal an election as the most recent theft by them was just 8 years ago. But this time, it should not be close enough to steal.

[redtrash]

Palins presence on the Republican ticket has hurt McCain with some voters. Fourteen percent of Obamas supporters say they once supported McCain, and the top reason given for their switch was McCains selection of Palin as his running mate.

McCain/Palin: PATHETIC!

[bill10281]

people lose with dignity. obama is not buying the election. people are sick of republicans and there nasty mean spirted hateful devil carl rove type politics.

[gop_will_win]

THE LORD IN HIS INFINITE WISDOM
PUT JOHN MCCAIN UPON THIS EARTH
TO LEAD US IN VICTORY
OVER THE HEATHENS OF NONWORTH

[notblue]

This morning CBS stated according to "their" polls Obama had a double digit lead, now this afternoon it is down ot nine points, all the other polls show a statistical tie. Despite the best efforts of liberal biased news orgs like CBS the truth and voters will decide when polls open tomorrow. It will be really something to witness the hand ringing, blame and excuses by the biased media of their man is not elected tomorrow.

[brucie2006]

No point in worrying about Palin, she will be indicted for Troopergate and misuse of Alaskan state funds for personal family matters...bye bye Ted Stevens too!!

[buckscc]

When Obama talks about re-distributing wealth, he is talking about:

"From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs."

This is a slogan popularized by Karl Marx in his 1875 Critique of the Gotha Program. The phrase summarizes the principles that, under a communist system, every person should contribute to society to the best of their ability and consume from society in proportion to their needs, regardless of how much they have contributed.

This is the Socio-Economical System that the Democrat Party wishes the United States of America to adapt.

The Republican Party wants the United States of America to adhere to the Capitalistic Socio-Economical System as the for fathers of the United States of America designed it.

This is the reason why I will not vote for Obama, because he is a Communist. He sure isn%u2019t a Capitalist.

I did not say Nazi, I said Communist!
I did not say a Dictator Style of Government.
I am talking about a %u201CSocial-Economical System.

[smilesz_408]

VOtE ObAMA fOR SOME REAl ChANGE, McCAiN dONT kNOW WhAT WERE GOiN tHRU. WE NEEdA A REAl MAN iN OffiCE

[kiwiw]

In the Name Of Jesus We already Declare the Victory that has been predetermined from the foundation of the earth. We thank you Lord b/c this man has walked in the fruits of the spirit and in the valley of the shadow of death, and did not return evil and hatred in his quest, even when those who came against him did, he stayed true to your word. And we give you all the praise and the Glory for the movement that you have given with the favor of God on the life of Barack Obama. Thank YOU Jesus.

[coronalu]

This is pretty amazing, given the fact that more then 60% of early voters are dem and a little over 30% are Rep. voters and yet Obama has only 9% more votes. This is based on solid research that also shows that the bulk of Rep. voters will turn out tomorrow. This is going to be quite an election.

[rudy654-2009]

When Obama talks about re-distributing wealth, he is talking about
***********

Another GOP myth/lie. Obama has never ever talked about redistributing wealth.

[airboatboy1]

The latest Vegas odds show that if you have $5 to bet and you bet on McCain and he wins you get back a total of $20, if you bet on Obama and he wins you get back $6. If ya really think McCain''s gonna win, here''s a chance for ya to make some money!

[rudy654-2009]

This is pretty amazing, given the fact that more then 60% of early voters are dem and a little over 30% are Rep. voters and yet Obama has only 9% more votes.
*********

I guess this is a serious sign that GOP supporters are illiterate. The articles isn''t talking about 9% more of the votes. Sad. Truly sad to see how stupid the GOP members are.

[georgiadog8]

Gop er wrote:
THE LORD IN HIS INFINITE WISDOM
PUT JOHN MCCAIN UPON THIS EARTH
TO LEAD US IN VICTORY
OVER THE HEATHENS OF NONWORTH
****************** May I retort

This is the funniest post of the day. I about fell out of my chair. If you have no brain you''ll vote McSame.!!LOL

[rudy654-2009]

Interesting that the Mafia controlled casinos heavily support McCain.

[redhawk1021]

...all the other polls show a statistical tie.

Posted by notblue at 03:40 PM : Nov 03, 2008

Who are you trying to kid? Apart from yourself that is?

What ''other polls'' show it this close? Please post it. Please note: polls in your head or taken in your house don''t count.

[redtrash]

20-year Navy veteran Bill Costello of Missouri said:

"I think that Sarah Palin is the best thing that has happened to this campaign. Me and my particular clique, we are not voting for John McCain because McCain does not care about US vets. We are voting for Sarah. We have a circle jerk at my house every other night dreaming about Sarah."

[rudy654-2009]

Posted by BagdadsHere6 at 03:49 PM

Over the weekend it was 13. Their poll for today has it at comfortable 9.

[coronalu]

And to "kiwiw at", I think you are a little off, no, you are a lot off, please don''t associate our Lord, Jesus Christ, to someone that fights for abortion on demand and that has voted to end life for a child that during the process of an abortion was born alive. If you can justify the murder of children while still in the mother''s womb, simply because we cannot hear their screams, then Obama is for you, myself, I believe we need to protect the little ones that cannot defend themselves. And why don''t you understand what Jesus said about whatever we do to the innocient ones, the children, we are doing on to Him.

[doshiam-2009]

Dare to watch this!


http://usawakeup.org/USSA.htm

[redhawk1021]

ARE YOU READY for the November surprise liberals?

Posted by BagdadsHere6 at 03:50 PM : Nov 03, 2008

The only November surprise I can imagine is you rightwing loonies saying something reasonable or showing you have a clue as to what is going on in the real world.

[dredigga]

Obama told the Brothers that they Should Pull Up Their Pants. He also told them to get a bucket of chicken Tuesday night so their hands will be too greasy to steal also.

Posted by PrezMcCain

What is this racist junk? Classless, and that is why you guys will lose.

[andor3]

" In one article they say OBAMA has a 9 points lead in another they say its 13 points."

Same thing if you understand polls.

But this is a huge break for the Democrats. They needed a little last minute Republican surge to ensure voter turn out. One landslide, coming up...

[rudy654-2009]

Posted by coronalu at 03:52 PM

And should you be associating your Lord Jesus with someone who sing bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, Iran or with someone who is good friends with a radio show host who instructs other how to kill federal agents?

[troutfisher4]

MY RESPONSE TO THE OHIO COAL ASSOCIATION:


The sooner we end coal mining, the better!

[rudy654-2009]

Posted by BagdadsHere6 at 03:53 PM

Yes, it was 13 over the weekend. You even posted on it like you always do. Sorry, I don''t want to make fun of Alzheimer victims.

[troutfisher4]

The article "horserace" still says its a 13 points lead. Actually they are tied. Check this "confortable 9" tomorrow okay? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

Posted by BagdadsHere6


What is your point, fool? Obama is still going to win.

[coronalu]

To "lastdance130" are you sick or what? Tell me that we are not killing 4000 unborn babies per day in our country! Just where the heck do you live. Oh, forget about this question, I already can tell by your comments that you live in LALA LAND.

[hodgy67]

After 8 years of Bush, they offer us McBush! He is an old *** who ought to go spend the millions his wife has. He was a traitor in Vietnam, a skirt chaser and a drunk. Graduated 4th from the bottom, and that is why repubs like him. They want someone as stupid as they are! Vote for an intelligent man! Vote Obama

[redtrash]

Alaska has a welfare state economy, payed for by Big Oil taxes. Alaska has 600,000 people, so cutting all of them a welfare check for a few grand is nothing. Palin has abused power as governor, and has done a great job concealing her abuse of power. Beginning November 5, 2008, after Palin returns to Alaska to assume her responsiblities as governor, she will face an endless barrage of felony charges, ethics charges, corruption charges that will end her career as yet another lying Republicon. GUARANTEED!

[coronalu]

No, "rudy654", you associate Jesus Christ to Jesus Christ, there are many that use His name to support whatever cause they may have, but His message is of love for each other, not murder and goes for in whatever form, including ABORTION. Oh, I forgot, you don''t wish to discuss this/ Right.

[georgiadog8]

The only socialist liberals Ive seen over the last 8 years is the GOP sponsored Bush & Co. Corporate Welfare for all. Paid by the US taxpayer. Record Deficits (borrow and spend) - Yet record profits for the oil companies. McSame will be the SAME! GOP sponsored!

[tscc2]

If Obama looses it will be because the Republicans steal the election like they did in 2000.

[doshiam-2009]

Vote For McCain!!!!! You won''t be sorry, but you will be if you vote for Obama!!! God bless you all


Good reminder...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svhq4C9HhUg

[troutfisher4]

CBSisPravda:

I hope the coal industry shuts down. Who gives a rip about Ohio coal?

[misha128-2009]

Posted by olivia4441 at 04:01 PM

In the nonsense information category

Al Qaeda endorsed McCain.

a McCain organization supported "their claimed" terrorist Khalidi with 1/2 million dollars.

The weathermen existed when Obama was a child.

But by all means continue the smear, it''s helping the other side.

[doshiam-2009]

The National Republican Trust - Political Action Committee

http://www.nationalrepublicantrust.com/video_aboutobama_eg.html